IFocus
You are arguing with a Galah
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There is a number (cannot find it) from which no county has recovered (200% ish) note Japan passed that ages ago.
In the short term, I agree - a complete mess
As for an unproven theory. Yes, to a degree. We've never printed on this scale before, with inflation so low. But if you look back at history, there's always been an event or series of events triggering inflation.
WW2 printing and removal of the gold standard as a few of those.
Not sure I see your point bas, I see the locals attending these more so in the future, as they wont be disappearing overseas to spend their holiday $s. The locals wont be seen as 'tourists' per-se but still spending some money there. The international tourist is gone but replaced by intrastate and interstate tourists (who would have been international tourists themselves).Locally restaurants, cinemas, hotels, public sport in fact much of the community public activity is severly affected. These are all important employment bodies as well.
A lot there will depend on the extent to which Australians take holidays domestically given that they can't go overseas.International holiday travel we know is off the radar. There goes many tourist destinations, airlines and associated industries.
Europe is restarted, i have nothing else to say.whereas we are just waiting to be hit again .
Economically this is black and white,.
It is a given the virus scared will not be invested or much, and will follow @over9k mindset.
Not necessarily.
I have significant concerns about the virus from a medical and broad economic perspective.
I am currently 85.3% invested in stocks.
Just because I can see a few problems with the band and their sound system doesn't mean I won't dance so long as the music keeps going.
Exactly frog - we need to remain focused on what WILL happen, not what we think should. Nobody here is in any position to influence government policy.And that is why it is good to be here, as a sample of people reactions some of them bright but having fundamental visceral reactions.
It is a given the virus scared will not be invested or much, and will follow @over9k mindset.
Not a matter of being right or wrong, but exploiting the sentiments
Europe is restarted, i have nothing else to say.whereas we are just waiting to be hit again .
Economically this is black and white,.
Yes if there was a real chance of a vaccine or miracle treatment we could lick for a year and justify it by lives saved.
No vaccine, decent treatment available now, this is a lose lose game to adopt that policy.
Anyway.i have nothing more to add, anyone willing to can look at real casualty rates per infection and mortality rates based on various policies as fully known now.
@qldfrog has adopted a political agenda to support his economic ideas. That's aside from regularly failing basic stats and tossing out ethics.Sorry, can't let this be the conclusion.
Gotta post the counter argument from a Sydney immunologist.
Make no mistake: COVID-19 infection is not a mere 'flu-like' illness
The "lockdown" strategy imposed on much of Victoria will cause psychological and financial stress for many.
Just when it looked as if Australia had control of the epidemic, an explosion of new cases has demonstrated how fragile "control" is in this context.
It is a problem being experienced by many countries: South Korea, Israel and Singapore, for example. While the restrictions are essential and should probably have been introduced a week ago, they will generate controversy.
Confronted by this situation, some economists and social scientists have argued that the economic contraction associated with lockdowns and even strict social distancing is more harmful than the sickness and deaths caused by COVID-19. They suggest that we isolate the most vulnerable "oldies" and let the rest of the community resume normal activities.
Millions would become infected but suffer a mild, "cold-like" illness or no illness at all. With their recovery, the "herd" would be immune and the virus defeated and the venerable vulnerable could then end their isolation.
The above approach needs to be rejected on both ethical and practical grounds.
To start with, we have no confidence that herd immunity is achievable. Most reports looking at antibody levels in recovered individuals suggest that antibodies are generated. However, they might not last beyond three months; and the antibodies might not be effective "neutralisers" of COVID-19.
To date, infusing antibody-containing plasma from recovered patients into the critically ill has not been encouraging.
4.6 per cent mortality rate among those diagnosed in the US.
The truth is there has been a tendency to underestimate morbidity and mortality in younger people. Many young individuals suffer mightily. Lung and kidney damage can be so severe that life-long problems can be expected.
The range of clinical presentations for COVID-19 infections is remarkable. Severe pain, hallucinations (we know COVID-19 can invade the brain) and overwhelming fatigue are common. Many reports are appearing of "recovered" patients suffering a chronic fatigue-like syndrome months afterwards. Also, increasing numbers of children experience a toxic inflammatory condition resembling Kawasaki Syndrome.
The virus can also induce blood-clotting episodes resulting in strokes and lung clots. And young people also die.
In the Brazilian disaster, 31 per cent of deaths are in individuals younger than 50. In Italy's crisis, 15 per cent were under 40.
The "let it rip" proponents should note that more than 100 Italian doctors attending COVID-19 patients died from the infection.
Professor John Dwyer is an immunologist and Emeritus Professor of Medicine UNSW.
You can read the rest of the article at
https://www.theage.com.au/national/...lu-like-illness-20200709-p55aem.html#comments
So you will have the last word in your rightness.you will not bulge or even look at numbers.yet epidemiology is a number game, nothing else.Sorry, can't let this be the conclusion.
Gotta post the counter argument from a Sydney immunologist.
Make no mistake: COVID-19 infection is not a mere 'flu-like' illness
The "lockdown" strategy imposed on much of Victoria will cause psychological and financial stress for many.
Just when it looked as if Australia had control of the epidemic, an explosion of new cases has demonstrated how fragile "control" is in this context.
It is a problem being experienced by many countries: South Korea, Israel and Singapore, for example. While the restrictions are essential and should probably have been introduced a week ago, they will generate controversy.
Confronted by this situation, some economists and social scientists have argued that the economic contraction associated with lockdowns and even strict social distancing is more harmful than the sickness and deaths caused by COVID-19. They suggest that we isolate the most vulnerable "oldies" and let the rest of the community resume normal activities.
Millions would become infected but suffer a mild, "cold-like" illness or no illness at all. With their recovery, the "herd" would be immune and the virus defeated and the venerable vulnerable could then end their isolation.
The above approach needs to be rejected on both ethical and practical grounds.
To start with, we have no confidence that herd immunity is achievable. Most reports looking at antibody levels in recovered individuals suggest that antibodies are generated. However, they might not last beyond three months; and the antibodies might not be effective "neutralisers" of COVID-19.
To date, infusing antibody-containing plasma from recovered patients into the critically ill has not been encouraging.
4.6 per cent mortality rate among those diagnosed in the US.
The truth is there has been a tendency to underestimate morbidity and mortality in younger people. Many young individuals suffer mightily. Lung and kidney damage can be so severe that life-long problems can be expected.
The range of clinical presentations for COVID-19 infections is remarkable. Severe pain, hallucinations (we know COVID-19 can invade the brain) and overwhelming fatigue are common. Many reports are appearing of "recovered" patients suffering a chronic fatigue-like syndrome months afterwards. Also, increasing numbers of children experience a toxic inflammatory condition resembling Kawasaki Syndrome.
The virus can also induce blood-clotting episodes resulting in strokes and lung clots. And young people also die.
In the Brazilian disaster, 31 per cent of deaths are in individuals younger than 50. In Italy's crisis, 15 per cent were under 40.
The "let it rip" proponents should note that more than 100 Italian doctors attending COVID-19 patients died from the infection.
Professor John Dwyer is an immunologist and Emeritus Professor of Medicine UNSW.
You can read the rest of the article at
https://www.theage.com.au/national/...lu-like-illness-20200709-p55aem.html#comments
So you will have the last word in your rightness.you will not bulge or even look at numbers.yet epidemiology is a number game, nothing else.
Among the blinds, the one eye is King..hope i will not get some PC **** for that insensitive sentence.
Truth matters.
To start with, we have no confidence that herd immunity is achievable. Most reports looking at antibody levels in recovered individuals suggest that antibodies are generated. However, they might not last beyond three months; and the antibodies might not be effective "neutralisers" of COVID-19.
Folks in most of Australia have been quick to smugly say Melbournians are all slack and deserve what they get (even though it happened right after the BLM protests and obviously the vast majority of Melbournians haven't been behaving any differently from the vast majority of other Australians!) and they're going about their business as usual. Most Melbournians are fed up with the situation and will take this round of lockdown far less seriously than the previous one, a pattern you can expect to see universally.
Sorry, can't let this be the conclusion.
Gotta post the counter argument from a Sydney immunologist.
Make no mistake: COVID-19 infection is not a mere 'flu-like' illness
The "lockdown" strategy imposed on much of Victoria will cause psychological and financial stress for many.
Just when it looked as if Australia had control of the epidemic, an explosion of new cases has demonstrated how fragile "control" is in this context.
It is a problem being experienced by many countries: South Korea, Israel and Singapore, for example. While the restrictions are essential and should probably have been introduced a week ago, they will generate controversy.
Confronted by this situation, some economists and social scientists have argued that the economic contraction associated with lockdowns and even strict social distancing is more harmful than the sickness and deaths caused by COVID-19. They suggest that we isolate the most vulnerable "oldies" and let the rest of the community resume normal activities.
Millions would become infected but suffer a mild, "cold-like" illness or no illness at all. With their recovery, the "herd" would be immune and the virus defeated and the venerable vulnerable could then end their isolation.
The above approach needs to be rejected on both ethical and practical grounds.
To start with, we have no confidence that herd immunity is achievable. Most reports looking at antibody levels in recovered individuals suggest that antibodies are generated. However, they might not last beyond three months; and the antibodies might not be effective "neutralisers" of COVID-19.
To date, infusing antibody-containing plasma from recovered patients into the critically ill has not been encouraging.
4.6 per cent mortality rate among those diagnosed in the US.
The truth is there has been a tendency to underestimate morbidity and mortality in younger people. Many young individuals suffer mightily. Lung and kidney damage can be so severe that life-long problems can be expected.
The range of clinical presentations for COVID-19 infections is remarkable. Severe pain, hallucinations (we know COVID-19 can invade the brain) and overwhelming fatigue are common. Many reports are appearing of "recovered" patients suffering a chronic fatigue-like syndrome months afterwards. Also, increasing numbers of children experience a toxic inflammatory condition resembling Kawasaki Syndrome.
The virus can also induce blood-clotting episodes resulting in strokes and lung clots. And young people also die.
In the Brazilian disaster, 31 per cent of deaths are in individuals younger than 50. In Italy's crisis, 15 per cent were under 40.
The "let it rip" proponents should note that more than 100 Italian doctors attending COVID-19 patients died from the infection.
Professor John Dwyer is an immunologist and Emeritus Professor of Medicine UNSW.
You can read the rest of the article at
https://www.theage.com.au/national/...lu-like-illness-20200709-p55aem.html#comments
Yes but it's not like there was uproar from the general victorian public once they found out that the protesters were going to go ahead with it despite everyone telling them not to was there?
Even now they're still in denial about what's caused the spread trotting out the classic "can't prove it empirically therefore didn't happen" bull****.
Lock the place down properly for long enough and the virus will eventually be gone.
Also, there's no way they're just going to reopen everything & allow massive spread. Not a snowball's chance in hell. To do so would be to say that the lockdowns already imposed were pointless/that we've been through all of this for nothing. This will NOT happen.
This goes for everyone: can we please give the political BS a rest? This thread is not about our personal opinions on government policy, only what we think the policies (and street level behaviours) are going to be and how to profit from them.
There are economies which relatively quickly got over COV19 or largely avoided its worst effects, yet we did not and have not adopted best practice from them.We can post counter arguments from varous 'experts' ad-nauseum.
Professor of pathology:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ten-reasons-to-end-the-lockdown-now
Other editorial:
https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/04/16/the-lockdown-is-killing-people-too/
Even the WHO promote the Swedish approach:
https://nypost.com/2020/04/29/who-lauds-sweden-as-model-for-resisting-coronavirus-lockdown/
Another epidemiologist here:
The list goes on. There are opposing opinions, so we have no certainty either way. We must take an educated guess at the best path.
I will leave with this note. The median age of suicide in the US is ~50YO. The median COVID death is ~82YO.
Using the life expectancy value of 78Years in the US, the average (median) person dying from COVID has already lived longer than expected.
On the contrary, we're losin ~28years of human life per suicide.
Even if you assume the person dying from COVID had 2 years left, each suicide is the equivalent of 14 COVID deaths.
Nobody has the complete answer. Rather, we should ask ourselves which is doing the most damage. (And we should use data to prove it, not statistical anomalies of a 40YO dying from COVID)
We often disagree, mostly on "style" but you nailed it.Also, there's no way they're just going to reopen everything & allow massive spread. Not a snowball's chance in hell. To do so would be to say that the lockdowns already imposed were pointless/that we've been through all of this for nothing. This will NOT happen.
There are economies which relatively quickly got over COV19 or largely avoided its worst effects, yet we did not and have not adopted best practice from them.
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