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Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

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I have no problem with reasoned debate and discussion.

I should be pushing to open up our domestic and international borders ASAP; because it is my generation that will be paying back the economic costs over my lifetime. However, I think we have past the point of no return with the suppression strategy, and believe we should be disciplined now to follow it through.
 
You see as point of non return, in a way i agree ..i translate that as being backed in the corner.it is not z given it can be eradicated: my belief of the direct link between vit d/sun exposure and temperature is not very optimistic with the southern states..but it could be done.. doable..not given but maybe..
But then what..and my suggestion is the fake vaccine as there is no way we can stay isolated for years...
A fake vaccine, prevention, remove media focus and a few hundred deaths a year as was already happening with the flu..life goes on
So invest in CSL
 
qldfrog said:
Actually, looking at the hysteria present in people who are usually more level minded, @over9k might have a point in his trading..the market is at least partly public mood
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I've made about 20% in the past three weeks simply trading volatility.

Said volatility is going to continue. It would have spiked on friday if not for the virus data dampening the employment data somewhat. I'm kind of tempted to start a thread called "trading the chop". We have a "trading the trend" and "trading the bounce" already.
 
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Tomorrow midnight, it's on the news now. Completely expected.
 

Sunk cost fallacy.

If it made sense to stay open, then it makes sense to open up now. The cost we've incurred to date is there, the damage is done.


Take a look at the lockdown of public housing in Nth Melbourne/Flemington. Whilst I despise the coddling of specific communities (especially if they complain/protest), this community copped the exact opposite.
If we're going to be told we can't go outside, we may as well stop living.

Italy is the natural rebuttal of my position. However, the vast majority of those dying were above 80. I don't like to see people dying, but they've outlived most other humans. Again, sacrificing our young to save our old.


As for articles like this:
https://www.theage.com.au/culture/c...m-covid-19-complications-20200706-p559ef.html

This is the media pushing their suppression narrative. Pick the few exceptions of people under 70 dying, and report on it to scare the masses.
They always talk negatively of Sweden's approach, possibly because of political bias (or other reasons, I really don't know).
 
Knobby22 said:
Let's sully this discussion with facts.

The data is provided by New York City Health as of May 13, 2020:

View attachment 105642
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99 of 15233 deaths are from people with no underlying conditions - seems very, very low.
Unfortunately, I can't find the total number of recoveries by this point, so it's a meaningless figure on its own.

EDIT: If you remove 'underlying conditions unknown', the denominator bcomes 11470. Still rather low.
 
To understand the implications, you should also play out possible scenarios and their economic implications.

So if the US changes tact and decides to do X instead of Y, then the discussion is valid.
 
Knobby22 said:
Just keep seeing wild statements. Thought I would show of those who die their age groups and how many had existing conditions. New York is a good place to get the stats.
Shows that if you are 45-64 you are not totally safe.
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Absolute figures aren't very useful. Need percentages.
 
Knobby22 said:
Just keep seeing wild statements. Thought I would show of those who die their age groups and how many had existing conditions. New York is a good place to get the stats.
Shows that if you are 45-64 you are not totally safe.
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No one is ever totally safe.

Those on the paranoia side are only looking at the deaths caused by the virus, not weighing up the death and harm caused by the mitigation measures. The cure is far worse than the disease, but the fearful side is just looking at reducing as many virus deaths as possible, at any cost, even if it causes more death to save those people.

They're not even considering the fact that we're just kicking the can down the road. In the Australian scenario it's not even a case of the cure being worse than the disease, it's a case of a delay strategy which is worse than the disease being employed, before the disease then does its thing anyway, but worse. A devastated economy makes the healthcare system worse off, meaning that it won't be dealing with things as well. Add to that the alarmism fatigue and we're going to have quite a sharp curve; the economy can't keep double dole and jobkeeper forever, and people are going to be fed up with being locked down and stop taking the rules seriously. Eventually the virus will go through the community, we can't stop that. The only benefit in the delay will be the improvements in treatment methods, but that will be more than countered by the lower availability of funding. Sooner or later we have to allow people to live. Sooner or later we need to have that flattened curve (or a sharp curve). The flatter the curve the better, but it needs to actually happen or we are living with our hands tied behind our backs forever.

And to those who say I'm talking off topic, having our hands tied behind our backs forever is directly economically relevant. Currently our strategy is to handicap ourselves logistically and economically for as long as possible, and then have the virus spread anyway.
 
Knobby22 said:
Just keep seeing wild statements. Thought I would show of those who die their age groups and how many had existing conditions. New York is a good place to get the stats.
Shows that if you are 45-64 you are not totally safe.
Click to expand...

New York is the worst place to be for CV19 please consider.....................

Very little opportunity to get sunshine, fresh air and exercise.

Apartment living and subway, always very close together with constant interaction with others.

Just been through winter, no chance of desirable levels of Vit D

Many people have darker skin which means they need extra sunlight to achieve desired levels of Vit D

The perfect storm really, here in Oz we are fortunate that we have our lifestyle but we cannot afford to lock down again.

We need to be proactive and GIVE everyone a large bottle of Vit D if they will take it.

If not, then tell everyone to get out in the sunshine and grab some rays, we need to give the general populous a feeling of positivity. A feeling that they are doing something to defend themselves and their family from this virus
 
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There are many cities far worse off than New York that never had anywhere near the problems. Hong Kong, Singapore and Tokyo quickly come to mind. That's not to mention a dozen or so cities in China.
It's all good and well to promote exercise and a balanced diet, including Vitamin D, but there are no valid correlations that support your ideas.
The USA has been enjoying several months of sunshine now and their COV19 rates are the highest on record.
 
The purpose of the stats is to show the death based on age. I expect other USA cities would have similar results with regard proportions.

Just pointing out the reality.

For those saying we should now deliberately let the virus go loose, I note that countries that have done so, Iran, USA, are still shutting their economies. I am unconvinced at this stage that they have taken the best route.The next month in the USA will let us see the results.

And you look at Western Australia, which will soon be reopening their e economy, compare that to the USA. Who is doing better?

With the USA and many other parts of the world, they may as well spread it. With us, it's not so obvious. And it's your life being risked.
 

News story on vic being cut off from everywhere else
 
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