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How many of those excess deaths were due to COVID-19?Some data on the A, B, C equation
0.5% of it population officially to coronavirus.
But it is much higher. It is amazing how many people appeared to have recovered and die from stroke, heart attack etc. This is due to the effect of the virus wrecking blood vessels.
In Australia overall less people are dying than normal due to the lockdown due to less travel so less car deaths, transmission of the flu not occurring, less acidenents from other causes. Male suicides are up though.Some data on the A, B, C equation
And so we agree as long as we do not kill more by ongoing social and economy misery?0.5% of it population officially to coronavirus.
But it is much higher. It is amazing how many people appeared to have recovered and die from stroke, heart attack etc. This is due to the effect of the virus wrecking blood vessels.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronavirus-death-toll-total.html
And it is the nations duty to look after its citizens, even people 60 years old and older. Not to mention the long term effects to people who recover.
And need to add that actual treatment is actually already much better at the very least in Europe.a lot has been learnt and your odds drastically improved vs 3 months ago.hopefully the info is shared but i would not bet on it when you see the mess with the chloroquine ...And so we agree as long as we do not kill more by ongoing social and economy misery?
If the couple owning the cafe started less than a year ago and which will not reopen hang themselves:
The bump on the death curve will be attributed to what? Undetected covid19 or government decision?
Cafe is real, i hope suicide will not happen..
Not easy..while fast we were too slow in the initial lockdown..actually stopping flights from China and cruise ships control IMHO
But i also believe we are too slow in releasing control now at least internally.
We can all agree the balance is hard to find and interests multiple.
Ideology plays between self responsabilities and nanny state views.with the tweaks of irresponsibility affecting the global community..at least a bit
But we should agree that we have to work eat and live.
Which bring it down to vaccine
If you hope a vaccine is coming, we can carry on lockdown no release of control
If as i do, you believe/know no vaccine will be there in at least medium term..years..:
Then we need to learn how to live with it and this does not mean no pub or concert etc
It also means a more in depth look at death figures related to age existing health and temperature climate
I have no God's truth and we can all be wrong, but i trust my readings of facts more than our qld medical top guru on leash to a partisan leader
In every country there is an unprecedented power grab by gov in power.
This is twisting both what you are told and the decision making process, from China to France to QLD and even councils
"Australia's deaths are but a blip."
Yes, I agree! This low result is because we did the actions you so disdain. Circuitous logic.
Use the USA example to support your argument, official or unofficial figures, the result is the same, massive numbers of deaths. Note that with the official covad figures you have to take into account the fact that you are not counted unless you die in a hospital (nursing homes are not hospitals, nor your own bed) and also if you are in a state like Florida you are not counted if you have a pre existing condition. So tell me why you think there is such a low death rate again?
Or look to Brazil to support your argument. Have you seen the mass graves? Do you believe their figures?
The truth is that lies are being spread to hide the disaster to calm the populace. Clearly it is only partially successful.
As i tried to explain, and based on first hand contacts and families in France, people in countries which had to go thru the first wave and aware of gravity are now ready to face it.not a denial but awareness of danger yet relativity of it.Reading the comments here I now understand how the 2nd wave will be very possibly x number of times bigger than the 1st wave, some thing I couldn't understand about the Spanish flu.
Nothing like success breeding contempt.
Undoubtedly a second wave, such is how epidemics work.Reading the comments here I now understand how the 2nd wave will be very possibly x number of times bigger than the 1st wave, some thing I couldn't understand about the Spanish flu.
Nothing like success breeding contempt.
Very good points @qldfrog . However, climate does not seem to affect cases occuring. Compare Brazil to Australia to the USA in relation to climate and number of cases.And so we agree as long as we do not kill more by ongoing social and economy misery?
If the couple owning the cafe started less than a year ago and which will not reopen hang themselves:
The bump on the death curve will be attributed to what? Undetected covid19 or government decision?
Cafe is real, i hope suicide will not happen..
Not easy..while fast we were too slow in the initial lockdown..actually stopping flights from China and cruise ships control IMHO
But i also believe we are too slow in releasing control now at least internally.
We can all agree the balance is hard to find and interests multiple.
Ideology plays between self responsabilities and nanny state views.with the tweaks of irresponsibility affecting the global community..at least a bit
But we should agree that we have to work eat and live.
Which bring it down to vaccine
If you hope a vaccine is coming, we can carry on lockdown no release of control
If as i do, you believe/know no vaccine will be there in at least medium term..years..:
Then we need to learn how to live with it and this does not mean no pub or concert etc
It also means a more in depth look at death figures related to age existing health and temperature climate
I have no God's truth and we can all be wrong, but i trust my readings of facts more than our qld medical top guru on leash to a partisan leader
In every country there is an unprecedented power grab by gov in power.
This is twisting both what you are told and the decision making process, from China to France to QLD and even councils
Agree with you GG on vaccine pipe dream, would disagree with some of your stats ..more exactly its assumption of ongoing effect and definitively as i can experience it, the resulting effect on behaviour.Very good points @qldfrog . However, climate does not seem to affect cases occuring. Compare Brazil to Australia to the USA in relation to climate and number of cases.
Releasing controls is more difficult than imposing them. In reality as with imposing controls the governments were advised by the doctors and they followed that advice, here. They also followed the advice in Sweden which was business as usual with disastrous consequences on lives lost and the economy. Denmark has taken the opposite tack to Sweden and is better off on both counts.
Lets assume a few things. From statistics which are skewed. I'll take Italy which has a higher number of older people than many other countries. The death rate in the age group is: 40-50 1% 50-60 2.7% 60-70 10% 70-80 25% 80+ 30%. Now all these older people have friends, or children, or grandchildren, or husbands or wives and all of the younger people have similar "ors", parents, siblings, children etc. So you cannot cookie cut a trade off between letting people die and business as usual. Workers will take time off to avoid a chance they may die even if it is 1% and will want to ensure their family get good care if they are sick. It is what makes us human, caring for others, worrying about sick people, well most of us anyway.
A vaccine is the real furphy. My doctor friends tell me it is pie in the sky until mid to late 2021. And the rub is that immunity from coronavirus and hence from a vaccine may well be very shortlived unlike influenza. How many colds do people get as opposed to influenza each year or two. Just think about it. Vaccines are for Wall St. and dreamers. And the Tangerine Clown in the White House.
The real answer in all of this is that nobody knows what the correct thing to do is. This virus is called novel for a good reason. It is new. Very new.
I do hope we get a vaccine soon and I do hope that small business and young workers and families are not blighted by the lockdowns. It is a very difficult situation we are in.
gg
The real unknown about the virus, is if there are any long term residual problem with the virus, it may well have a dormant component that doesn't surface until the immune system becomes compromised with age or other causes.Agree with you GG on vaccine pipe dream, would disagree with some of your stats ..more exactly its assumption of ongoing effect and definitively as i can experience it, the resulting effect on behaviour.
How many people are in very bad health: serious diabetic obese and existing cancer etc...these are wiped by the first waves..no denial.aged a strong factor.but for the rest..the 99,%..well they want to carry one living.
Whole movements wants to change the society for the 99% against the 1pc..do not expect less with the virus.
Whatever you or i think will not matter much when the pression will rise.facts do not matter much as we can see with BLM etc
Economically the world will restart and now that noone care about plastic straws, we will see a huge GDP boost from the virus and related activities.
I always remember the saying best GDP creation is for the terminally ill in intensive care.however flawn, this indicator will rebound and so the market
The real unknown about the virus, is if there are any long term residual problem with the virus, it may well have a dormant component that doesn't surface until the immune system becomes compromised with age or other causes.
Somewhat like shingles, they stay dormant until a person is run down, then they surface.
From what has been written about the virus, it has a HIV component, which in itself can only be controlled not erradicated.
If that is the case it would be far better to not get the virus at any age, it would also be better to let the virus run its course overseas, before allowing free flow of overseas travellers.
My guess is we aren't being told the whole story, it is the only possible answer, for such a radical intervention worldwide.
Just my opinion.
I liquidated my equity portfolio again last Friday. Just sitting on cash, precious metals and 2 small cap miners.Big talk of a second wave in china over the weekend. Lots of ASX red as a result. Will be interesting to see how U.S is effected now as everyone were expecting a massive bounce tonight and that's now looking uncertain.
I'm slightly down from friday morning buy - there's been a +4 into friday afternoon and then -8 swing today literally just since friday morning. You'd be -12 or more if you'd bought friday arvo. The volatility is just nuts.
Here I've been arguing with a quant on the "trading the trend" thread that all the old rules underpinning his models (e.g AU following USA so if USA friday is green then AU monday should be) are out the window and he's completely against me.
Good dip to buy into though.
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