Thought they might be mate. I think I got most of those code snipets from members here too.
Dump it Here
- Thread starter Skate
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Thought they might be mate. I think I got most of those code snipets from members here too.
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Could still add a very selective index filter to drive my point further.
Please don't get too precious about staying "on-topic", on a thread titled "Dump it here" with the following brief:
To those that get my point - well done - upward forward.
To those that don't get my point - good luck - deeper inward.
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As there is a discussion about performance. I add this to my systems. When you do lots of trades, it brings you back to earth.
SetOption( "CommissionMode", 1 ); // SIMULATE SLIPPAGE PER TRANSACTION
SetOption( "CommissionAmount", 1 ); //1% PER TRANSACTON
SetOption( "CommissionMode", 1 ); // SIMULATE SLIPPAGE PER TRANSACTION
SetOption( "CommissionAmount", 1 ); //1% PER TRANSACTON
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Sure
Fell free to put real money into that random system and keep us informed along .... I personally would enjoy having a 75pc return system between 1/01/2020 and now with 0 loss possibility.
i double my commissions as a 'dumb' way to account for slippage. there are more elegant ways to do it but it works for me. wouldr ather over estimate commissions and have it profitable.
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While we are talking about live trading results
I "live" trade a handy weekly strategy & I'm prepared to upload the signals from the (a) Exploration Analysis as well as the signals from (b) the backtest feature. (you can use either/or)
The period for the appraisal
1st June 2020 to 30th June 2020. This weekly strategy never stopped trading during this period. I've selected this period because it included "February & March 2020" (the COVID Crash) a period where I dropped 70% of my open profits. I've also included the recovery phase from April to June 2020. The actual trading results for this period will be disclosed by whoever appraises the signals. (that's if someone has the time or inclination)
FYI
This is one of my better strategies.
I would appreciate someone doing an independent appraisal
2020 has been very kind to me & I imagine last year has been kind to every other trend trader.
Question
Is there anyone who will do an appraisal? (before I upload the Excel files)
Skate.
I "live" trade a handy weekly strategy & I'm prepared to upload the signals from the (a) Exploration Analysis as well as the signals from (b) the backtest feature. (you can use either/or)
The period for the appraisal
1st June 2020 to 30th June 2020. This weekly strategy never stopped trading during this period. I've selected this period because it included "February & March 2020" (the COVID Crash) a period where I dropped 70% of my open profits. I've also included the recovery phase from April to June 2020. The actual trading results for this period will be disclosed by whoever appraises the signals. (that's if someone has the time or inclination)
FYI
This is one of my better strategies.
I would appreciate someone doing an independent appraisal
2020 has been very kind to me & I imagine last year has been kind to every other trend trader.
Question
Is there anyone who will do an appraisal? (before I upload the Excel files)
Skate.
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i probably can if it's the backtest trade list, will you disclose the account size at the start or not? But in saying that in the end people are only validating a backtest, not actual results. So you might as well upload the AB report
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@Roller_1, thank you for responding. I trade this strategy live & have done so for a long time. I take my signals religiously from the Exploration Analysis. Whereas others trade from the signals of the Backtest feature (backtest trade list). This is a seasoned strategy, meaning I have cut a small window of signals for appraisal. The period in question is the scary period of 2020. Some might like to know the results of how the strategy performed during this 6 month period. Both files are in Excel format - so they are easy to follow.
The point of the exercise
If someone started to trade for the first time, they would have started at the very worst time. They decide to trade a $100k Portfolio (20 X $5k bets) between 1st January 2020 to 30th June 2020 (end of the financial year). Knowing what we know now (a period of extreme volatility) how would this strategy have performed?
Example - Exploration Analysis capture
Example - Backtest trade signals capture
Let me know if you are still interested. (posting a backtest report wouldn't have served the purpose) - if I upload the files they will be in Excel Format.
Skate.
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Lol ...... I was only thinking yesterday how clever Mr @Skate 's System naming actually is
However, until Mr. Skate gives us his "Blobfish" system, I am sure we are nowhere near the biblical proportions required to qualify for the "Noah" award you suggest!
ps If the Blobfish system ever does emerge, I suspect it may be a leading Indicator towards "Armageddon"?
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As there was no interest
It seems pointless to display the backtest results as I have little faith in the results compared to "live trading". The exercise was to take the signals without exception (admittedly a new trader would have struggled to keep trading during the COVID crash)
These are "actual" buys & sells
I've taken every signal & traded through the COVID cash & at times it wasn't pretty.
There are two scenarios that I'll give
(1) Trade from the 1st January & CASH OUT on the 30th June 2020
(2) Trade from the 1st January & stop BUYING on the 30th June 2020 & HOLD those positions till the end-of-close on Friday (8th Jan 2021)
Why hold the remaining positions?
BECAUSE it has taken 6 months to get a good hand (poker pun). Once you get 20 good positions, turn that strategy into a "Buy & Hold" system. (as a second example of trading)
Trading Results for scenario 1
Trade results from the 1st January & CASH OUT on the 30th June 2020
Trading Results for scenario 2
Trade from the 1st January & stop BUYING on the 30th June 2020 & HOLD those positions till the end-of-close on Friday (8th Jan 2021) - Turning a "Trend Trading System" into a "Buy & Hold System".
Just the basics have been uploaded
I won't upload the other "detailed reports" as I only try to post what I think everyone is interested in.
Summary
It takes time for a strategy to develop into profitability, that's what beginners fail to realise & accept.
Skate.
Last edited:
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I lived through this exact scenario. Started trading WTT around January. By 28 February was down -15.47%. By then I was 100% cash as WTT had raised all stop losses to 10% and out I was. It felt lousy. I wasn't happy but I realized that in a crash such as this it was not the fault of the strategy and that the strategy was perfectly viable. As a weekly system it did feel like we got out a little slower than I would have liked.
The first new trade was 20 April for Amazon and it felt just terrible taking that trade. But it was the absolute best time to buy. That portfolio finished up 2020 with a return of 24.04%. The strategy worked fine.
read my thread. same here lol. have to remember, if your system loses 20% straight up, well think, was it a market crash? yes? ah, ok, well that explains it. if you lost the same amount without a market crash, then you start asking some serious questions.
the tradeoff with weekly is that it cuts out the noise by ignoring everything between. the downside is that with sudden and violent moves against the market during the week, no chance to react. sometimes the market will just go down tuesday and wednesday, but by friday its higher than i was on monday. dont try and predict.
glad you finished with a return of 24% and glad you followed through. you are probably doing better than mates who haven't got a system if they trade at all.
if you read my thread you will see that i was really unsure about taking trades after the crash. it felt like the market could gapdown at any moment. but in the end, like you, those trades ended up being huge winners.
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The Amazon trade, FWIW. [Only 1 share purchased.]
[I love charts.]
[I love charts.]
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Hi all.
I have to make $15k AUD in 2-3 months (by April 10 at latest), what high risk stocks should I invest in?
I have very little knowledge of stocks, but need to get the **** out of my family business as my parents are *****ing me.
Willing to risk $ to get the returns I want
I have to make $15k AUD in 2-3 months (by April 10 at latest), what high risk stocks should I invest in?
I have very little knowledge of stocks, but need to get the **** out of my family business as my parents are *****ing me.
Willing to risk $ to get the returns I want
Honestly don't know if this is a troll or not? no one is going to give you advice on that. What it sounds like what you are after is the casino?
WilsonFisk
Lurker From The Deep
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I started on 13 February 2020 with my first non-discretionary trading strategy (I call it my 'Active Trading' strategy, as I dont have to be active) which is only a week or two off probably the worst time to start from a sequencing risk point of view. In saying that, I am comfortable around how and more importantly why it performed.
It too backs @Skate comment around give it some legs. It started buying back in early June, and time has given it some legs compared to just buying the market as a whole.
The return on this is probably far off, what some others in this thread achieved over that time, but I have been investing my time and resources into 2 small business operations and a young family, so system development is a part time/casual interest.
Sequencing Risk and Index Filters
There are a lot of fund managers and retirement product providers that are banging on about sequencing risk and why its important, understandably a retiree with all their super in a balanced fund retiring at the start of this year would have been drawing income out of their super in a falling market. Not good - but not an issue for me (mortgage and family wont let me retire for a while
).I have put this sequencing risk into context of the index filter discussion, and think that the index filter is a crude method in alleviating this sequencing risk (effectively reducing draw down as per my system above when it flatlined).
More importantly I have also put some thinking into some of @Skate musings in this thread, some of @ducati916 insights and analysis of the markets and sectors over the last 6 months.
What have I learnt though
- That when the proverbial hits the fan, there is unrelenting selling across the board
- The market over the last 12 months has shown there are significant differences between sectors
- That an index filter (XAO as an example) can be good at getting you out of the market, but can be slow getting you back in
- That a filter based on a particular sector can be more appropriate than the broad index eg. XIJ as a filter for tech stocks would have had you back in much sooner
Hopefully food for thought, am I right, maybe or maybe not. I haven't been able to code something like that up yet, but have been loosely apply it to my discretionary trading with success.
I will figure something out.
In the meantime I will continue to use my crude index/vix based GTFO filter on my existing system until it no longer performs within my risk/return expectations and trade pattern
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@WilsonFisk, what a quality post. Your returns aren't too shabby either.
Index Filter
I use an Index Filter to drive my Trailing Stop only these days. When the "Index Filter is On" I have a generous trailing stop & when the "Index Filter is OFF" the trailing stop shortens considerably.
You have hit the nail on the head
Index filters can keep you out of the market when there is chaos & volatility to take advantage of (as demonstrated in your chart). My buy is conditional on strength & momentum. The Index Filter as a "buy condition" has outlived its usefulness (as far as I'm-concerned personally)
Great post mate!
Skate.
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Private messages
We all get our share of private messages. Members who contact me are interested in one strategy or another. Some just want a suggestion of what to trade.
I'm just throwing it out there
I've been working on a simple Commodity Channel Index (CCI) strategy to generate "entry & exits" signals - it's a simple concept that generates interesting results. Google a "CCI trading strategy" & follow your nose.
Here is a hint
Swap out the WTT engine (of my uploaded WTT strategy) & replace it with a CCI indicator to generate the signals.
The Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The (CCI) momentum oscillator identifies cyclical trends as it determines the difference between the mean price of a security & the average of the means over a chosen lookback period. Simply the CCI indicator compares this difference.
In a nutshell
The issue that most traders have using the CCI momentum oscillator is that they believe it displays "excessive lag" making it an unreliable generator of buy & sell signals. Massaging a few parameters I've found the CCI indicator to be more than useful as a trading strategy.
The (CCI) momentum oscillator is worth a second look
Whether you use a CCI or RSI indicator to determine a trend is splitting hairs. Both indicators shine when there is good volatility & momentum present.
FYI
As a trading strategy, the CCI indicator is perfectly okay to use.
Skate's CCI Trading Strategy
Below are two 6 months backtest (as an example)
(1) from 1st January to the 30th June 2020.
(2) from 1st July to 31st December 2020.
Skate.
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I'm curious. What the Family business is that you need to escape, Ronnie?
Plus, how is making 15K going to get you "out of the business"?
Genuine questions, if yours were also
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@Skate I found an example of an afl that is using a CCIFast and CCISlow cross. May I ask if you are doing something similar, or something simpler than this?
Code:
CCISlow=Param("CCISlow",30,30,100,10);
CCIFast=Param("CCIFast",10,5,30,5);
Buy = Cross( CCI(CCIFast), 0 ) AND CCI(CCIFast) > CCI(CCISlow) ;
Short = Cross( 0,CCI(CCIFast)) AND CCI(CCIFast) < CCI(CCISlow);Similar threads
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