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Good idea. Asking the question "so how was it that I 'just knew' with absolute certainty?". Was it the sustained speeding up of turnover (trades per second)? Was it massive block trades taking out several lines at once? Was it the sudden and repeated re-filling of the bid? Was it that my sell order just got eaten as if it wasn't even there? These things are obvious, so unlikely to be it. Such conditions are well known to traders already. Perhaps it was something far more subtle, or a combination of very subtle 'thin slices'.

What style did you come up with Skate?
 
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Succinct Answer
I came up with another trend following system because it’s a style proven to make money.

Additional comments
For the sake of others reading this thread I’m going to make a few comments about making money in the markets (our end game) I’m dumbfounded that there are so many ways to bet on the share markets, as with Horse racing, rugby league & even baseball (heaven forbid)

There are successful traders & others not so fortunate
You made some interesting comments in your previous post, two of which are listed below:
(a) [You] "just know" that a move is imminent [that] signals an opportunity.
(b) [It’s] “just [a] free-flowing dance where you're totally in tune with the movement of the market. [having] No fear.”

So let’s unpack your statement (I’m 100% in agreement)
(a) Most seasoned traders "just know" when a move is on but sometimes lack the correct tools to capture the move OR they lack the confidence to enter the move.
(b) Traders need to be in tune with the movement of the market - it’s so much easier to go with the trend than fighting against it.

Trends
Trends come & go otherwise we would all be wearing ‘Bell bottom’ trousers, ‘Paisley Shirts’, 'Mutton chops' & a 'Mullet hair style'. I’m a big believer in dancing to the music being played (I’ve written about this in many of my previous posts on this thread)

Now let me have my say from my perspective
Trading doesn’t have to be complicated, find a trading style that you are comfortable with & go for it.

Tread carefully
Be careful & educated before you start trading because when your money is on the line trading things can get complicated very quickly bringing emotions to surface that you never knew existed. You need to condition yourself to have the correct mental attitude so you can think clearly under pressure. The way you respond when it comes to trading is the whole essence of starting the ‘Dump it here’ thread condensing it into an eBook format on Trading Fundamentals. (from my perspective)

Let me explain what I “just know”
Moving averages is an indicator showing the movement of the markets & I use moving averages extensively in my HYBRID trading strategy. Your post sparked a light bulb moment as I “just know” how vital simple moving averages (SMA) as well as exponential moving averages (EMA) are to any trading system. A quick explanation for others, "Exponential moving averages" (EMA) gives more weight to the most recent data that reacts faster to recent price changes than simple moving averages (SMA)

Key component
Moving averages are the key components to my new MAP strategy. Simply using a moving average to enter & exit the market, nothing fancy, pretty basic really. I wanted to prove to readers that you don’t have to reinvent the wheel or have a new idea as everything you need to trade successfully is right at your fingertips.

The MAP strategy
I'll buy when the price is moving up & Sell when the price is moving down as I “just know” this strategy will work over time, paper trading it live on the ‘Dump it here’ thread with weekly updates will prove or disprove what I “just know” to be true.

Nothings perfect
All indicators are lagging, they need a period of time to establish a pattern & that’s why trading ‘Moving Averages’ is not an exact science. Getting into & out of a move using moving averages can be tricky but I “just know” trading moving averages has potential.

Skate.
 



Repository found here - https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/1022296/

Skate's modified CAM Strategy Settings
Weekly Strategy (Start Date: 1st January 2019)
$300,000 Capital
20 Position Portfolio
$15,000 Fixed Positions

1. Listed below is this week’s buy & sell positions to be placed in the pre-auction before Monday open.


2. This week's generated Buy & Sell signals for the CAM Strategy


3. Portfolio performance line chart updated weekly


4. CAM Strategy ‘Open’ position


5. CAM Strategy ‘Closed’ positions


6. CAM Strategy Dashboard



7. The CAM Strategy first weekly ‘Buy’ Chart to demonstrate the bar colour coding.


Skate.
 


Skate's MAP Strategy Settings
Weekly Strategy (Start Date: 1st May 2019)
$300,000 Capital
20 Position Portfolio
$15,000 Fixed Positions

1. Listed below is this week’s buy & sell positions to be placed in the pre-auction before Monday.


2. This week's generated Buy & Sell signals for the MAP Strategy


3. Portfolio performance line chart updated weekly


4. MAP Strategy ‘Open’ position


5. MAP Strategy ‘Closed’ positions


6. MAP Strategy Dashboard



7. Direct comparisons of the trading results of the CAM verses the MAP strategy


Skate.
 
peter2 said:
Aim: To earn extra income that enables me to do more of the things that make me happy.
(as Bill is going to take my franking credits away)
Click to expand...

Changing investment style
Yep, I'm also rearranging my long term dividend seeking investments into a more hands on trading style & I'm planning to redirect some of those funds into 2 new weekly Trend Following systems.

peter2 said:
I'll show the progress as I've done in the past. You'll know if I'm profitable or not and whether I'm hot or cold. If this thread lasts for more than 6 mths then I'll tell you the profit as a percentage of starting capital OK?
Click to expand...

This got me thinking
As I'm already keeping accurate records paper trading my new strategies why not list a summary of the three under test so others can follow their progress live.


Too fancy for me
Phew, comments made recently by @Gringotts Bank & @peter2 is above my pay grade so I'll be happy to keeping my trading style simple, following trends.

Great threads
It’s inspiring to see a renewed interest in a few trading threads & especially @peter2 “p2-momentum-trade-book-part-3” thread & @tech/a "potential-breakout-trading-technical-tips-and-tricks" thread.

2 now 3 Strategies under evaluation
I have two strategies that have been under valuation since 1st January 2019, the CAM strategy is one of them & my BOX strategy is the other. The 3rd strategy is the recent MAP strategy inspired by @Gringotts Bank & it's now one week old. The BOX strategy is another simple Breakout system with extreme parameters unrestricted by market conditions or an index filter. The BOX strategy is designed to be a free flowing system with minimal restrictions on the Darvas principle of Boxes.

The BOX strategy is a simple BreakOuteXtreme system – BOX for short

Weekly updates
I'll keep posting weekly updates of the CAM & MAP strategies & a summary report of the progress of the 3 strategies under evaluation. I won't chock up the 'Dump it here' thread with another weekly update of the BOX strategy but rather display a graph of the three for a direct comparison. (see below)

Summary Report


This is the BOX strategy Dashboard from 1st January 2019 to end of close on Friday 10th May 2019 - (The Dashboard is being posted once for those interested)


Skate.
 
Simple is good. What would really interest me is to see one of your strats traded by a couple of other people (not me) over the course of a few months. To have a small group of people apply a simple, solid and purely mechanical strat, then contrast the equity curves. For a 100% mechanical strat, one might assume the equity curves would be very similar. But would they? I'd bet on significant differences.

Traders would have excuses of course. "My internet was down for a week, so I missed that big trade", "I had to move interstate and couldn't continue", "I had to withdraw capital to help out a friend", etc. etc. All legitimate excuses, but such things would appear. The question is "what is really underlying such excuses?". You (Skate) would continue to succeed, and strangely, others would not match you. There is much more to succeeding than a good strat. You have a factor in your success which is not fully explored here.
 
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No need to
@Gringotts Bank, there is no need for others to trade my strategies as I report religiously all the trading signals & positions sizing of both strategies before the positions are taken, doing this the trading results cannot be fudged as there is nothing hidden whatsoever. Even my trading setups are disclosed at the bottom of this post.

The Turtles
If the exercise is to confirm whether trading temperament & emotions plays a big role as in the Turtle experiment, the results may vary & as you say: "I'd bet on significant differences".

Confidence
I've put in the hard yards learning the culture of trading that allows me to have the confidence to back myself to follow my trading plan 100%. I "never ever" deviate from the plan even when I know at the end of the week I'll be financially worst off. What annoys me is logical people making illogical decisions constantly but that's just part of the trading game.

Platoon Sargent
In movies & in the US army, Platoon Sargent's main role is to shout & stress the new recruits, why? It's so the new recruits are conditioned to can handle stress from the get-go ensuring they make calm, measured decisions under enormous stressful combat conditions, their lives depend on it.

How to think 'not' what to think
The 'Dump it here' thread is designed to condition traders beginning their journey, making sure they are aware that stress from trading can be hazardous to their health & wealth. Uncontrolled stress will nags & nags at you even when asleep. I'm a firm believer how one handles stress when trading can be the difference between being profitable or a dead set loser. You only have to read some of the words posters use & how those words are strung together to feel their emotions.

Let me be frank
I'm totally amazed how temperamental some forum members are & frankly I expect better, so many on here are so thin skinned, one hint of perceived criticism & their noses are all out of joint, crikey all posts are just written words. To use the words of our Prime Minister Scott Morrison: "If you can't handle stress you can't manage trades"..

Some members don't post
We all have the right to express an opinion whether it right or wrong, I've been [pm'ed] & abused a few times over certain comments & I've even copped some harsh words for "Liking" someones post, go figure. When a discussion gravitates & the other poster makes a personal remark towards myself it makes me feel like a winner. Truth be told I don't mind a scrap or a heated argument & sometimes the loudest doesn't always win.

willy1111 said:
I can't help but thinking perhaps this is another sign we are close to a top in the market
Click to expand...

@willy1111 sometimes we can overthink things. I don't even know if the markets will open higher or lower on Monday let alone where we are in the markets & frankly I don't care.

Let me make a comment (from experience)
When your in a fight it's not how hard you can hit - it's depends on how well you can take one that decides the outcome.

After making a few comments - I'm now back on message..

Below is a full disclosure of both strategies

(a) The CAM Strategy - Trading Plan (Enter LONG)
Buy before the open on Monday in the pre-auction at the open if today (Friday) is a GOLD-coloured bar [which represents the CAM-PB, meaning that both the 10-period (ADX) and (MACD) are declining] but the 14-period (CCI) is above zero, OR if today (Friday) is a BLUE-coloured bar [which represents the CAM-CT, meaning the 10-period (ADX) is declining but (MACD) is rising] and today’s close crosses above the 13-period EMA.
(b) The CAM Strategy - Trading Plan (Exit LONG)
Sell before the open on Monday in the pre-auction if Fridays end of close is a RED-coloured bar [which corresponds to the CAM-DN, that is, the 10-period (ADX) is rising but the (MACD) declines] and today’s (Friday) close is below the 13-period EMA.


(a) The 'MAP Strategy' - Trading Plan (Enter LONG)
Buy whenever the Closing price is higher than a selected Moving Average conditional on the ROC filter being above 0% - OR - I'll buy when the Closing price is at least 10% higher than the previous week close with Volume higher than the Moving Average period.
(b) The 'MAP Strategy' - Trading Plan (Exit LONG)
Sell when the momentum stalls using a momentum indicator - OR - when a trailing stop is hit.

Skate.
 
Sorry I skim read a lot of stuff.

Since some of those stocks are thinly traded, you'd be aware if others are following your buy signals or whether you're sitting alone on the bid come Monday mornings. Are you?
 
Gringotts Bank said:
Sorry I skim read a lot of stuff.

Since some of those stocks are thinly traded, you'd be aware if others are following your buy signals or whether you're sitting alone on the bid come Monday mornings. Are you?
Click to expand...

The parameters & setting I use in my trading strategies takes position sizing into consideration.

Trading small $15k positions I've never had an issue trading in the pre-auction.

Skate.
 

Another who can proudly wear the badge of Elder..

What a mile stone - well done @nulla nulla for maintaining the "a-reit-valuation-model" thread since June 2012.

It's been a huge commitment on your part to keep the thread updated with charts that are so easy to comprehend, the value of your posts have not been lost on me.

Please accept my personal gratitude @nulla nulla for your tireless efforts in keeping ASF members and visitors informed on a weekly basis. @Joe Blow would be thrilled to have members so committed as yourself & @bigdog

Skate.
 
Skate said:
Please accept my personal gratitude @nulla nulla for your tireless efforts in keeping ASF members and visitors informed on a weekly basis. @Joe Blow would be thrilled to have members so committed as yourself & @bigdog
Click to expand...

These threads require an incredible amount of dedication and commitment and I am very grateful to them both for continuing to keep ASF members informed. We are lucky to have them here.
 
My little dump- i have come to realize losing traders concentrate all their effort at finding ways to increase their wins and very little effort at controlling risk and money management. So end up losing and leaving before they find a way to becoming a profitable trader. If they spent their time first getting risk and money management sorted then they would last long enough to find something that works for them to make them a profitable trader.
It has taken me many years to realize that, now i'm working on part two.
 
Regularly taking losses can easily lead to a slow painful death ('death by a thousand cuts'). But death is death, whether fast or slow.

These are my rules - they are pretty simple.

Have a properly backtested system. Stick to it*. Above everything else, ensure your vibe is pumped up. Your vibe is everything.

*For any instances where you can't stick to it, (eg. jumping on big spec runners which are outside your system or doubling down), then develop a separate system for those instances.
 
Some very profitable traders (trend followers) have a win rate between 30% and 40%,
it's not how often you win , but how much you do when you do that matters.
But also how much you lose too counts.
 
willoneau said:
Some very profitable traders (trend followers) have a win rate between 30and 40%,
it's not how often you win , but how much you do when you do that matters.
Click to expand...
Yes, 30-40% is a standard WR for a profitable trend following system. I can't handle that myself which is why I have to use a mean reversion system where the standard WR is 66%.
 
I agree with the death by a thousand cuts, but at least you have time to try and work it out . One big cut and it's good night.
 
willoneau said:
I agree with the death by a thousand cuts, but at least you have time to try and work it out . One big cut and it's good night.
Click to expand...
If you can handle a big number of losses in a row and not lose your cool, then your vibe is probably pretty good. So we're saying the same thing, only I would say it's better to develop the system first.
 
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