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Dump it Here

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https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/1022296/

Skate's modified CAM Strategy Settings
Weekly Strategy
$300,000 Capital
20 Position Portfolio
$15,000 Fixed Positions

1. Listed below is this week’s buy & sell positions to be placed in the pre-auction before Monday.


2. This week's generated Buy & Sell signals for the CAM Strategy


3. Portfolio performance line chart updated weekly


4. CAM Strategy ‘Open’ position


5. CAM Strategy ‘Closed’ positions


6. CAM Strategy Dashboard



7. The CAM Strategy first weekly ‘Buy’ Chart to demonstrate the bar colour coding.


Skate.
 
Quotes I've found interesting

peter2 said:
Why is there such a difference if all systems are trend following systems?
Click to expand...


Newt said:
Feeling very spoiled and thankful reading the numerous weekly systematic trading reports on ASF currently
Click to expand...


ducati916 said:
The aim of trading is to become profitable. To do so you need: (i) a methodology that has a positive expectancy and (ii) the ability to execute that methodology.
Click to expand...




ducati916 said:
Only when are you calm enough and devoid of any number of bad habits that can [and will] get you in trouble, to trade your methodology successfully. To reach that point, requires massive effort, probably measured in years.
Click to expand...

Why make this mid-week post ?
The markets at the moment are playing havoc with my paper trading of 3 strategies that I'm planning to trade in the near future. I have decided to trade 2 of the new strategies at the start of the new financial year with the appropriate backtesting being completed. Paper trading is purely trading the strategy with data not seen before being 'out of sample' data. Bull markets makes any strategy appear successful whereas Bear markets are a leveler.

The last 4 months have been extremely profitable for any 'Trend Trading' system. If May & June live up to expectations it will give an insight into the true performance of the strategies. This is the very reason why trading in all markets conditions are essential to qualifying a system or idea.

Let me give you an example
The Equity line charts displayed below is EXACTLY the same system/strategy under test, the ONLY difference is a slightly different start/entry date & position sizing so its apt to make a few bullet points.

1. Luck plays a big part in any trading results.
2. The entry date plays a big part in the overall small sample trading results.
3. The sediment of the markets play a big part in the portfolios performance no matter how good you think your strategy is.
4. You can trash a good system on a small sample of data or time.

Example 1 - Starting Date 29th June 2018


Example 2 - Starting Date 18th January 2019 (SAME STRATEGY as above)


Moreover
I'm in the middle of paper trading 3 strategies at the moment & I'm planning to trade 2 of them if they perform as expected & they mirror their backtest results.

The current performance results of the 3 strategies are inline with extensive backtesting. The 3 strategies performance are similar as they are all a combination of a few different 'Trend Following Systems' that do extremely well in the conditions the markets are experiencing at the moment.

The systems being tested need to experience a few down turns in the market to get a true evaluation. I've been reporting weekly the 'CAM Strategy' but for comparisons I'm posting he results of the other two non disclosed systems to highlight the issues a Bull market gives when it comes to paper trading an idea.



Skate.
 
Whilst waiting for the end-of-trade today I wish to make a few comments in the 'Dump it here' thread expressing some of my personal views keeping the theme of the thread alive.

Catalyst
@ducati916 posted some alternative views in the "TraderFeed - Brett Steenbarger, Ph.D." thread that I found interesting to read. To be right upfront I aligned with those views expressed by the 'duc' & found that his comments were articulated succinctly & were well written. I gave some thought of lifting some of those comments & placing them in the 'Dump it here' thread but thought better of it. If you are interested in his views you can read the "TraderFeed - Brett Steenbarger, Ph.D." threads for his comments.

Let me make some general comments
Behaviour modification, without doubt, is the key to trading success. It’s not only in how we think but also in how we act in certain situations. We must adapt to changing situations over which we have no control & in turn we must change the situations over which we do have control. It's important to have an attitude & open mind that we are ‘still learning’ no matter where we are in your trading journey.

You cannot really tell someone what to do, but often they will modify their behaviour by reading a variety of forum posts & hopefully they will be more receptive to making better trading decisions. It's worth remembering that we can all learn from other people's insights whether you agree with them or not.

Skate.
 
I've been following with interest with the comments made in the "TNY - Tinybeans Group" thread that's the catalyst for me to make a general comment about trading & the associated emotions that come with the game. The comments below are general in nature & not directed at the "TNY - Tinybeans Group" thread or any particular member commenting in the thread.

Why we struggle
The complexity, the surprises, the shocks, most traders feel on a daily basis sometimes come as a shock because traders aren't even aware that the market can be mean to them without notice. Some traders struggling to understand what went wrong with their position when riding success. Trading is not gambling, trading is not a sprint but a marathon, trading is a game of probabilities. Trading successfully is changing your behaviour to trade the method that gives you the best long term outlook of success.

Skate.
 
Emotions
It’s sad anytime someone loses money, sometimes they can lose a fortune in such a little period of time, it can happened to anyone lacking the knowledge what the market can really do to them quick smart. Most traders focus on what the markets can do for them not what the markets can do to them so it’s reasonable you must plan to lose & be the best loser you can possibly be.

Trading is a losers' game
He who loses the best will have the best chance to win in the end. Most traders fail to realise that it’s easier to take a small loss than it is to take a big loss. As traders we must remove the emotional element as quickly as possible if our trading is to be successful. Humans don't act well when under stress or emotional pressure.

Don't let the markets control you
Never let the market tell you that your position is wrong, you must decide when your position is bad & take action without exception, sell & move on as it’s critical to your success in trading. If you don't take early losses, it will becomes more difficult to take a loss as they become larger

You can’t control the market but you have full control of your position - drill that into your thinking & remember you can sell whenever YOU want, it must become second nature to automatically do it at times to elevate stress in your trading

Don’t be a ‘coulda-woulda-shoulda’ type of trader because you will need to have total control when following your trading plan.

Skate.
 
I'll just bullet point some of my ideas & let others think about them rather than posting.

Topics to think about
1. With the speed of the internet how effective is what you read or the newly gained knowledge - does it really affect your trading decisions.
2. I believe how we think & act about losing money is really important to the success of our trading.
3. Why we are afraid to take a trade sometimes.
4. How do we control our feelings so we don't get too emotional when trading.
5. I firmly believe that traders never plan for the really bad times.
6. It's a known fact - It can be pretty costly to make a mistakes in trading so how do we slant the odds in our favour?

Skate.
 
@Trav. thanks for reading my posts, I was just filling in some time whilst waiting for the markets to close & settle. When I post it feels like I'm speaking to myself, putting my thoughts into words.

Thank you once again, I appreciate you talking the time to read my thread as well as hitting the Like button.

Skate.
 
I've also liked your posts but I have to add that most new traders won't realise the truth of your comments until they experience the stress and distress that the markets can produce in us.

Unfortunately when they do experience the stress they don't know what to do next. They do the wrong things like trying a new indicator or new system not realising that the problem is them.

Most don't keep comprehensive records. All the answers to our trading questions are in our stats.

Success in trading comes to those who are willing to modify their behaviour to skew the numbers in our favour. The biggest behavioural adjustment is to become proactive rather than reactive.
 

Thank you @peter2 for also reading my post & making additional comments - every word you added is so true. The 'Dump it here' thread was designed to educate & condition people how to think (not what to think) when it comes to trading as most don't realise the emotional side that comes with the territory.

The 'Dump it here' thread & the eBook was an effort to give new traders the heads-up before embarking on their trading journey & a pep talk to others. There are some great threads on ASF but most don't take the time to review or read some of the gems previously written as it's perceived as old news or most may just lack the time. I understand reading older posts is a huge commitment.

Skate.
 
Skate said:
@Trav.Thank you once again, I appreciate you talking the time to read my thread as well as hitting the Like button.

Skate.
Click to expand...
I have enjoyed your thread and to be honest a lot of your thoughts have gone over my head. But as I continue my journey in this game I find that I keep coming back and re reading some of your posts and the pieces are slowly fitting together.

I have made horrendous mistakes and can only blame myself for them, but I have not given up and the ASF community is definitely part of the reason why I am improving as a trader and now can be honest with myself and work on my weaknesses.

Thanks for sharing your knowledge and wisdom as I am sure many of us have taken something away from this thread.

Cheers
 


https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/1022296/

Skate's modified CAM Strategy Settings
Weekly Strategy (Start Date: 1st January 2019)
$300,000 Capital
20 Position Portfolio
$15,000 Fixed Positions

1. Listed below is this week’s buy & sell positions to be placed in the pre-auction before Monday open if action is required.


2. This week's generated Buy & Sell signals for the CAM Strategy


3. Portfolio performance line chart updated weekly


4. CAM Strategy ‘Open’ position


5. CAM Strategy ‘Closed’ positions


6. CAM Strategy Dashboard



7. The CAM Strategy first weekly ‘Buy’ Chart to demonstrate the bar colour coding.


Skate.
 
peter2 said:
I've also liked your posts but I have to add that most new traders won't realise the truth of your comments until they experience the stress and distress that the markets can produce in us.
Click to expand...

We are not computers
@peter2 comments allows me to expand on a well-known fact that most traders lose money because of inbuilt fragility that come with being human, we are not computers & certainly don't act like one. The markets can produce unbelievable stress when your money is on the line & most traders don't think clearly when faced with losses, indecision creeps in causing us to become emotional instead of being methodical or mechanically in our trading method.

Poor behaviour patterns
Common behaviour patterns can lead you into making errors of judgement in your trading, relationship & health can suffer in many ways. I’m not saying that you need to be unemotional but you must recognise things that make you feel good and things that make you feel bad. Some traders don't recognise that things can go terribly wrong because we all have a tendency to believe in things that we expect or hope for, believing in something with little real evidence is very dangerous to your wealth.

Be capitalised & don't over-trade
Traders who are under-capitalised or over-trade have a tendency to value the avoidance of loss more highly than the making gains, losses will impact more than gains. When emotional, traders have a habit of making poor decisions, methodical traders will recognise conditions that trigger this mental state. Switching from an emotional state that leads to poor behaviour gives everyone a fighting chance in making a more rational decision. Being calm & methodical can save you money & that's the name of the game.

Size of losses
We are also influenced by the size of the loss we have already incurred. The bigger the loss, the bigger it impacts our ability to make the right decision & we are more likely to hold that position rather than moving on to the next trade. If you can recognise that the size of your loss has a huge impact on your ability to make the right decision, it pays to trash those sucker quickly keeping losses small & unemotional.

Recognise & reconfigure
No trader likes to crystallise a loss by selling, it's not easy being unemotional when trading either because that's not in our nature. To be a better trader we need to take control & reconfigure our behaviour that gives us a fighting chance to stay in the game.

Trading longevity is truly the end game.

Skate.
 
Last edited:
The last 10 posts have truly resonated with me not only as a trader, but also at the most fundamental personal level. There are two specific paragraphs that hit me like a freight train the first time I read Market Wizards. I truly believe these paragraphs regarding the composite of a losing trader and the process of decision making by Dr. Van K. Tharp have been undeniably beneficial to my trading.

When I first read this paragraph below, at that current time in my life, it was like reading an almost identical description about myself. The two things that stood out majorly to me were not having a set of rules to guide my trading and being a crowd follower. I was strategy hopping like a crazy person, looking for the next best thing every time I would have a loss because I was chasing some holy grail strategy (which does not exist). This also happened because I was severely undercapitalised and was taking crazy risks in regards to position sizing. You name the strategy and I've probably tried it at one point or another over the last 2.5 years.. I was getting nowhere fast. I soon realised I needed a set of rules to govern my decision making process in order to remove the emotion from my trading. I also needed to fix the issues in my personal life because at the time I was unknowingly letting those external issues seep in and affect my decision making when trading.



This paragraph below has also been eye opener for me. At times when traders have a system or have rules.. they still apply a subjective thought process to the signals given by the system or rules. Personally, I prefer not to consider potential outcomes for trades at all because this increases self doubt about the signal. I'm nowhere near perfect but I make a conscious effort to just see the signals, apply them, and then move on. I don't think about what could be or what might happen. Thing is... anything can happen to a stocks price, and I have no control of it. All I have control over is: following my signals, risk management and position sizing.



Skate said:
Trading is not gambling, trading is not a sprint but a marathon, trading is a game of probabilities. Trading successfully is changing your behaviour to trade the method that gives you the best long term outlook of success.
Click to expand...
Wholeheartedly agree Skate. It's completely a numbers game. Once I got my head around that... man, things seem to be changing for the better. I dislike making any decision from a place of emotion which is why I am a terrible discretionary trader. There was no structure to alert me about what my reaction should be if a signal appeared. Trying to make those decisions on the fly has forced me to pay my tuition to the markets.
 
One critical thing for me in my move toward hopefully successful system trading is the size of the money at risk
By ensuring if all come to the worst and i loose 100pc, it does not significantly affect my life, for the first time, i can have a strict adherence to the system
Funnily, my move into mostly protection mode for most of my assets allow me better following of my system
Before, i was everywhere, mostly loosing while paying zillion in brokerage,always too early in my tradings
Age might help welnow asl...
And reading this thread...more than reading the various books
If it may inspire people...
 
Cam019 said:
The last 10 posts have truly resonated with me not only as a trader, but also at the most fundamental personal level. I dislike making any decision from a place of emotion which is why I am a terrible discretionary trader.
Click to expand...

@Cam019 What a great post.
I believe your post will have a larger impact than the other 10 posts put together because your words came from the heart, a personal perspective. The 'Dump it here' thread is in the "Beginner's Lounge" section of the forum not visited by many members which is a pity as your post is powerful in its delivery.

Thinking out loud
I'm glad I made a few comments whilst filling in some time waiting to post the weekly Cam strategy results. Posting in the 'Dump it here' thread I soon realised it was an information overload as expressed by @tech/a.

I've shifted focus
Shifting the thread focus to a more trading strategies theme because of an interest by @qldfrog posting trading results of his version of the CAM strategy & @peter2 deciding to run a 40 position portfolio recording its progress. With renewed interest in the thread I stopped posting the same-old-same-old that didn't hold interest or momentum. I've restricted myself to posting the weekly CAM strategy results & only answering question I'm asked. When there is a new post it gives me the opportunity to make a comment.

A few comments about emotions & risk
From my observation the average trader (if there is one) are not seeking to make a few extra bucks, they are trading because they after better return than any other investment vehicle. Traders are expecting big reward and fail to see the big risk that they can experience & somewhere along their journey they will face this situation. Trading can give you some big surprises being a friend one minute or your worst enemy the next, & from my experience with trading you must be prepared for both.

Self control
You can eliminate or at least control your reactions & emotions to sudden market moves by having the correct position size that creates your emotions in the first place when there is an adverse move in price against you. You need to have safeguards in place expecting an adverse market move at anytime & your trading plan should be based with that outcome in mind.

Emotions
Behaviour modification can take many forms. Each time you have a big loss or did something stupid it worth remembering but just because your trade lost money there is no reason to feel bad or beat yourself up, losing money is a part of the game. Money shouldn’t be the motivator but a by-product when you trade successfully, trading is just a business endeavour.

Trading burns people
Unsuccessful trader who loses big will quickly give trading away, the markets can damage you quickly, losses can sometimes be more devastating than losing a few bucks, it can take away much more like your mental peace & your self-esteem. At times it can be devastating to a relationship not because of the money lost but by the mood swings that comes with the anguish.

The anguish, the emotions is all because traders never knew the enemy in the first place.

@kahuna1 posted many years ago: "What makes a site is the actual posters as I am sure you well know and how they treat each other"

Deep down we all post in the hope of helping others.

Skate.
 

Deceived by patterns - (traderfeed-brett-steenbarger thread)
A post by Ann in the "traderfeed-brett-steenbarger thread" has resonated enough with me to make a post about pattern, chart patterns in particular & how they apply when it comes to trading. As a mechanical system trader I'm constantly looking for repeatable chart patterns that can be coded & backtested confirming the validity, profitability & if that pattern can be turned into a trading strategy. It's one thing to have a good idea but without vigorous testing as suggested by Brett Steenbarger it will all be for nought.

tech/a said:
You cant expect a pattern to have influence after say 10-20 periods regardless of time frame
Click to expand...

Chart Patterns
Patterns are everywhere. Some Patterns are deadly & can lead you to make a poor decision. Chart patterns are easy to spot when they are in the middle of the chart but as traders we can only trade at the hard right edge. Chart patterns, even candlestick patterns look good in hindsight but less than handy predicting what will happen tomorrow. It's a pity all patterns appear well after the fact, @tech/a suggests it is between 10-20 periods regardless of time frame for patterns to have an influence. Patterns, they tell you a story of what has happened in the past & not what will happen tomorrow.

Charts - easy to interpret
Furthermore, I’m suggesting that chart patterns, candlestick patterns are easy to interpret after they happened & they are more predictable than they were before they occurred. Chart readers have a unique ability to express their opinion on certain information that validates what we already know to be true and then create a story about it to make sense out of the event as we attempt to explain it to ourselves. This why we see cute little Bunnies or faces in cloud formations, seeing patterns is in our DNA, it's an inbuilt survival mechanism to quickly distinguish friend from foe.

Stocks are just like people
Understanding traders past behaviour, may allow you to predict their future behaviour. Stocks are just like people, because that is who makes them look the way they do. The buying and selling creates an emotional ebb and flow pattern & just like people, stocks can be unpredictable, but certain emotions and behaviours do occur regularly.

In closing
ASF is awash with a variety of mechanical trading systems being reported at the moment, following along I feel privileged to be apart of their journey. With any mechanical system be it a Daily, Weekly or a Monthly we are all trading repeatable patterns.

Skate.
 
The subconscious can process a chart immediately and with a far higher degree of accuracy than any system ever can. The problem is that without a backtested system, fear can creep in.

Fear comes from the conscious mind and will play havoc with the superior subconscious signalling process. When you "just know" as Cap Black once said - that's the subconscious signalling an opportunity that the conscious mind can't even put into words. When you "just know" that a move is imminent, the conscious mind doesn't know why it knows. The conscious mind is like a laptop; the subconcious is like a room full of super computers, and it uses feeling to signal what it knows.

I use a system, but only because without it I find it hard to control fear. But the ultimate form of trading is just free-flowing dance where you're totally in tune with the movement of the market. No fear.
 
Last edited:

I’ve been thinking
Turbulent times are forecasted & if you are an avid reader of @kahuna1 posts, or a reader of @noirua, "Latest tweets by The Donald" thread or follow Trumps latest tweets proves that this wouldn't be the best time to start & challenge a new strategy - the markets have turned angry & traders are unpredictable & moody.

Sell in May and go away
The month of May & June historically have not been great trading months so it’s the perfect time to test a new trading strategy. It's been said that there is no perfect time to start trading & when you do start the chances are "it will be the very worst time ever".

The "Just knowing" comment
@Gringotts Bank has made another great post in the 'Dump it here' thread & his comments of "just knowing" has stimulated a light bulb moment & got me thinking along the lines of "is it possible to trade & code a feeling" & if so can that strategy make money.

An idea generated today
We all have opinions of what works & what doesn't when it comes to trading but always find it difficult to have the confidence putting our money on the line trading that idea. So after reading @Gringotts Bank post I set about coding a strategy from what I have learnt over the last few years. I'm shooting from the hip coding my idea of what I know & feel to be true (at least for me) to formulate a new strategy that on paper has the ability to make it.

Coded & tested
The idea coded up well & the strategy has backtested with pleasing results. Backtesting is only an indication & the results should be taken with a grain-of-salt. The new strategy has only a few conditions when to buy & sell. Hopefully the new code can withstand a bit of stress, a bit of turmoil.

Start Date
I've started the new strategy as of the 6th May 2019, (3 days ago) & the current negativity & high volatility will be a good test to evaluate the idea. Also is it possible to quickly code a strategy to withstand high volatile & turbulent market that we are all experiencing at the moment.

A trading idea from reading ASF posts
Over the years I looked at charts trying to find repeatable patterns to trade BUT for the sake of this experiment I'm using information I've learn over the last 4 years reading ASF forum posts by @captain black , @tech/a & @peter2 whilst taking on board the comments made by @ducati916 , @Wyatt , @Cam019 , @jjbinks & @qldfrog

Today I've coded a simple robust strategy (IMO) that should have a fighting chance no matter what trading conditions are thrown at it, well that's the brief I set myself.

Skate said:
It's one thing to have a good idea but without vigorous testing as suggested by Brett Steenbarger it will all be for nought.
Click to expand...

The CAM Strategy
The CAM strategy is so simple in design you would "bet-pounds-to-peanuts" it wouldn't be profitable. The CAM strategy has very few rules & it was the benchmark for my new strategy. I'm a bit different to most when it comes to making money out of the markets. My simplistic views are not for every one as all I want to do is "jump on when prices are rising & jump off when the momentum stalls".

My new strategy, is the MAP strategy.

MAP is an acronym - Moving Average Period Strategy (it's a simple MA strategy)

The 'MAP Strategy' trading Plan
To keep this strategy as simple as possible the plan has 2 Buy rules & 2 sell rules.

(a) I'll buy whenever the Closing price is higher than a selected Moving Average conditional on the ROC filter being above 0% - OR - I'll buy when the Closing price is at least 10% higher than the previous week close with Volume higher than the Moving Average period.
(b) I'll sell when the momentum stalls or when a trailing stop is hit.

In Plan in English
I'll buy when the price is moving up with momentum & Sell when the momentum stalls or the trailing stop is breached. I won't disclosed the Moving Average look-back period or my parameters.

Reverse engineer a system if it turns out to be profitable can sometimes be fun.

This is my first post
Starting from the first purchase on Monday the 6th MAY 2019 the results are underwater from the get-go that's pleasing - the stress testing of the strategy has already begun.

I'll be posting the MAP trading weekly results at the same time I post the CAM strategy weekly updates on Friday after the close. The Trade amounts for both strategies will be exactly the same for comparison purposes.



Skate's MAP Strategy Settings
Weekly Strategy (Start Date: 1st January 2019)
$300,000 Capital
20 Position Portfolio
$15,000 Fixed Positions

1. Listed below is this week’s buy & sell positions to be placed in the pre-auction before Monday open if action is required.
This will be listed this coming Friday after the close.

2. This week's generated Buy & Sell signals for the MAP Strategy


3. Portfolio performance line chart updated weekly


4. MAP Strategy ‘Open’ position


5. MAP Strategy ‘Closed’ positions
As the strategy has not completed a trading week there is nothing to display

6. MAP Strategy Dashboard - after three days of trading


Why post a another strategy to test?
Well, frankly, reporting on the CAM strategy in my opinion is not enough to spark additional interest in systematic trading. This forum is chock full of talented traders who have something to contribute & maybe just one post from them might be the light-bulb they are looking for.

Skate.
 



There has been a request for a direct comparison between the results of CAM strategy & the MAP strategy from the 1st January 2019, its a wonder I didn't think of doing that. DOH !

Results for the MAP strategy - 1st January 2019 to end of trade today



Results for the CAM strategy - 1st January 2019 to end of trade today




The MAP Strategy Portfolio Dashboard - from 1st January 2019 to the end of close today Wednesday 8th May 2019




The CAM Strategy Portfolio Dashboard - from 1st January 2019 to the end of close today Wednesday 8th May 2019


Early indications
Both strategies are performing as expected, so it will be interesting to see how they both handle the next few months.

Future MAP strategy updates will be from 1st May 2019.

Skate.
 
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