Dump it Here

[divs4ever]

1. Never trade or invest with money you can't afford to lose.
Like most worthwhile endeavours typically requires a level of upfront savings. Trading with savings you can "genuinely afford to lose" can help make the process less emotionally charged and, to some degree, more stress-free. However, this ideal scenario is rarely the reality for most. The crucial consideration is to ensure that savings allocated to trading do not jeopardise your financial stability or disrupt your current standard of living.

having been offered a margin loan very early in my investing adventure ( by a group named in the Hayne Royal Commission ) i agree investing should be included in that hint

the other trap is investing with next month's bill payments hoping the divs. will arrive on time ( i nearly got caught with that mid 2020 )

Point 1 I really don't agree with - in relation to investing as opposed to 'trading'. Most Australians begin investing from the first day of their first job via a Super Fund. You don't have to be an investment expert as the funds you invest in are run by professionals.

sorry i disagree , i see Super as a forced savings plan , after being inflicted two amazing ( sarcasm ) funds i am not so sure what they were professionals at , but they absolutely convinced me to go 'hands on ' with my nest egg

Similarly, a lot of Australian buy investment houses - hardly something they 'can afford to lose'.

but lose they might .. bank foreclosure , forced resumption , fire , flood

when someone tells me 'as safe as houses ' i get ready for a con spiel ( remember i played truant on the race-tracks )

So the statement about only investing money you can afford to lose implies pretty much no one should even start.

future investors should understand even bank/term deposits carry the risk of capital loss ( sure that percentage might be tiny , but it is there )

so the real question is about risk tolerance ( even bars of gold 'under the floor boards ' have a risk of being stolen )

 

[bettamania]

This is mine and a few more systems to go and missed out opportunity this season is ( not recommending anything here!) the chart is the ugliest one but the return is phenomenal. I even slapped my face a few times











Pinnacle v.25 EA - Backtest Report

Initial capital	100000.00	100000.00	100000.00
Ending capital	2481880.78	2481880.78	100000.00
Net Profit	2381880.78	2381880.78	0.00
Net Profit %	2381.88%	2381.88%	0.00%
Exposure %	42.99%	42.99%	0.00%
Net Risk Adjusted Return %	5540.68%	5540.68%	-nan(ind)%
Annual Return %	14.64%	14.64%	0.00%
Risk Adjusted Return %	34.06%	34.06%	-nan(ind)%
Transaction costs	0.00	0.00	0.00
All trades	152	152 (100.00 %)	0 (0.00 %)
Avg. Profit/Loss	15670.27	15670.27	-nan(ind)
Avg. Profit/Loss %	8.53%	8.53%	-nan(ind)%
Avg. Bars Held	39.32	39.32	-nan(ind)
Winners	82 (53.95 %)	82 (53.95 %)	0 (0.00 %)
Total Profit	4626704.76	4626704.76	0.00
Avg. Profit	56423.23	56423.23	-nan(ind)
Avg. Profit %	24.22%	24.22%	-nan(ind)%
Avg. Bars Held	55.59	55.59	-nan(ind)
Max. Consecutive	6	6	0
Largest win	649199.04	649199.04	0.00
# bars in largest win	149	149	0
Losers	70 (46.05 %)	70 (46.05 %)	0 (0.00 %)
Total Loss	-2244823.98	-2244823.98	0.00
Avg. Loss	-32068.91	-32068.91	-nan(ind)
Avg. Loss %	-9.85%	-9.85%	-nan(ind)%
Avg. Bars Held	20.27	20.27	-nan(ind)
Max. Consecutive	5	5	0
Largest loss	-427077.91	-427077.91	0.00
# bars in largest loss	31	31	0
Max. trade drawdown	-542895.64	-542895.64	0.00
Max. trade % drawdown	-35.71	-35.71	0.00
Max. system drawdown	-747279.01	-747279.01	0.00
Max. system % drawdown	-32.26%	-32.26%	0.00%
Recovery Factor	3.19	3.19	-nan(ind)
CAR/MaxDD	0.45	0.45	-nan(ind)
RAR/MaxDD	1.06	1.06	-nan(ind)
Profit Factor	2.06	2.06	nan
Payoff Ratio	1.76	1.76	nan
Standard Error	235767.41	235767.41	0.00
Risk-Reward Ratio	0.52	0.52	-nan(ind)
Ulcer Index	12.10	12.10	0.00
Ulcer Performance Index	0.76	0.76	-inf
Sharpe Ratio of trades	0.57	0.57	0.00
K-Ratio	0.05	0.05	-nan(ind)

 

[Skate]

Backtest results need to be achievable and believable
While the profit and average profit per trade is impressive, a comprehensive risk assessment and comparison with benchmarks are necessary to evaluate the strategy’s effectiveness fully. It’s also crucial to consider the possibility of overfitting and validate the strategy with out-of-sample and forward testing.



To achieve meaningful results, "make the backtest count". There are always some do's & don't when it comes to interpreting the results that I wish to touch on. Don't fool yourself by backtesting using compounding. It may look good on paper but "reality" goes out the window using this method. For more information about backtesting - do a search: [Backtest] by [Skate].

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/dump-it-here.34425/post-1186612

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/dump-it-here.34425/post-1186630

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Amibroker Backtesting Can Provide a Misleading Perspective
@bettamania, even the best trading software can give you a false sense of security, leading you to persist with a strategy when there may not actually be an edge or the edge has not been properly established. Backtesting is not the be-all and end-all, as it is not the only important factor in strategy development or evaluation. However, it can provide valuable insights into how a strategy might perform when traded live.

Backtesting Relies on Historical Data
To achieve meaningful results, it is crucial to approach backtesting thoughtfully. There are several important dos and don'ts to consider when interpreting the results.

One common pitfall is fooling yourself by backtesting with compounding
While it may look impressive on paper and help sell a strategy, it does not reflect real-world trading conditions. For example, if you backtested a strategy with a starting balance of $100,000 and position sizes that compounded from $5,000 to $44,000 over a period, the resulting trade sizes would be unrealistic and unmanageable in actual trading. Amibroker's calculations do not account for these practical limitations.

In summary
While backtesting can be a useful tool, traders must approach it with a critical eye and an understanding of its limitations. Relying solely on backtested results without considering real-world factors can lead to a false sense of confidence and poor trading outcomes.

Skate.

 

[bettamania]

Amibroker Backtesting Can Provide a Misleading Perspective
@bettamania, even the best trading software can give you a false sense of security, leading you to persist with a strategy when there may not actually be an edge or the edge has not been properly established. Backtesting is not the be-all and end-all, as it is not the only important factor in strategy development or evaluation. However, it can provide valuable insights into how a strategy might perform when traded live.

Backtesting Relies on Historical Data
To achieve meaningful results, it is crucial to approach backtesting thoughtfully. There are several important dos and don'ts to consider when interpreting the results.

One common pitfall is fooling yourself by backtesting with compounding
While it may look impressive on paper and help sell a strategy, it does not reflect real-world trading conditions. For example, if you backtested a strategy with a starting balance of $100,000 and position sizes that compounded from $5,000 to $44,000 over a period, the resulting trade sizes would be unrealistic and unmanageable in actual trading. Amibroker's calculations do not account for these practical limitations.

In summary
While backtesting can be a useful tool, traders must approach it with a critical eye and an understanding of its limitations. Relying solely on backtested results without considering real-world factors can lead to a false sense of confidence and poor trading outcomes.

Skate.

Thank you kindly for your reminder Skate. this system has just recently being completed and it is just comprised of simple trail stop for exit. Still haven't been able to set aside time and got plenty more materials to read so no extra perks yet for this system. And obviously that links you gave will be tonight reading.

Talking about curve fit, this system is in the market already for a while with me . It is just under different platform only and I am fully aware of what is curve fit and its related family.

 

[Miner]

@Joe Blow
Just FYA, I got none of the postings into my mail even I am following this thread.
Regards

 

[qldfrog]

Amibroker Backtesting Can Provide a Misleading Perspective
@bettamania, even the best trading software can give you a false sense of security, leading you to persist with a strategy when there may not actually be an edge or the edge has not been properly established. Backtesting is not the be-all and end-all, as it is not the only important factor in strategy development or evaluation. However, it can provide valuable insights into how a strategy might perform when traded live.

Backtesting Relies on Historical Data
To achieve meaningful results, it is crucial to approach backtesting thoughtfully. There are several important dos and don'ts to consider when interpreting the results.

One common pitfall is fooling yourself by backtesting with compounding
While it may look impressive on paper and help sell a strategy, it does not reflect real-world trading conditions. For example, if you backtested a strategy with a starting balance of $100,000 and position sizes that compounded from $5,000 to $44,000 over a period, the resulting trade sizes would be unrealistic and unmanageable in actual trading. Amibroker's calculations do not account for these practical limitations.

In summary
While backtesting can be a useful tool, traders must approach it with a critical eye and an understanding of its limitations. Relying solely on backtested results without considering real-world factors can lead to a false sense of confidence and poor trading outcomes.

Skate.

And do not forget taxes..where do you get the money to pay a 30 to 48% tax..even a working system with phenomenal return will have a yearly tax induced DD at a specific time

 

[divs4ever]

After Being Wrong For Three Years, Marko Kolanovic Is Leaving JPMorgan​

After Being Wrong For Three Years, Marko Kolanovic Is Leaving JPMorgan | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[bettamania]

Skate your trail stop looks very nice. It is tightening on the top. Are you keen to share a bit of the trail stop info?

 

[Joe Blow]

@Joe Blow
Just FYA, I got none of the postings into my mail even I am following this thread.
Regards

View attachment 179888

I have subscribed to this thread and am receiving email notifications as requested. Can you please check your thread notification settings and if nothing seems to be out of order unwatch and re-watch the thread again to see if that helps. It may also be worth checking your email junk or spam folder to see if the notification emails are ending up there.

 

[Captain_Chaza]

Skate your trail stop looks very nice. It is tightening on the top. Are you keen to share a bit of the trail stop info?





View attachment 179922

Without having OPENING prices How does your Back testing work on todays GAPS on FMG and SFR?

 

[Skate]

Skate your trail stop looks very nice. It is tightening on the top. Are you keen to share a bit of the trail stop info?

@bettamania, I've explained my exit strategies in detail many times before, and you can find all those discussions with a quick search. I've also provided screen captures with explanatory notes and chart markings to help clarify what I'm discussing.

Most people don't want to read lengthy posts, but I'm happy to provide an overview of my exits for you. Below are 4 recent links where I've discussed my exit strategies in depth. And if you search for any trading-related keywords, there's a good chance I've covered that topic extensively as well.

In the next few posts, I'll be adding a few more relevant comments on this subject.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/dump-it-here.34425/post-1273451

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/dump-it-here.34425/post-1273452

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/dump-it-here.34425/post-1273455

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/dump-it-here.34425/post-1273457

Skate.

 

[Skate]

The Exit - Makes the Money
When it comes to trading, knowing how and when to exit a position is crucial. Effective exit strategies can maximise profits and minimise potential losses. Here are some techniques to manage open profits:

Effective Exit Techniques
1. Trailing Stops: These move with the price in the trader's favour, allowing the capture of as much profit as possible.
2. Stale Exits: These are preset exit points based on price movement and time, helping traders lock in profits and avoid giving back too much if the trend reverses.
3. Take-Profit Exits: These are predefined levels at which a trader decides to exit the position and take the profit on offer.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Are Extra Exit Strategies Worth It?
As traders, we've all been there. We enter a trade with a plan, only to see it stagnate or move against us. We nervously watch as our open profits dwindle, hoping the trend will turn around. But what if it doesn't? What if the trend continues against us, and we're left with a significant loss?

This is where extra exit strategies come in
In addition to a trailing stop, which follows the price movement and adjusts the stop loss accordingly, some traders also use a "Take Profit Stop" and a "Stale Stop" to manage their risk. A Take Profit Stop is a fixed price level set at a certain distance from the current price, designed to capture profits when the trend is moving in our favour. By setting a Take Profit Stop, we can lock in our profits and avoid giving back a significant portion of our gains.

By using these different types of exits, traders can optimise their trading strategy and improve their overall performance. Traders can also combine these techniques or use other strategies, such as time-based exits or volatility-based exits, to create a hybrid approach that suits their individual trading style and risk tolerance.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Deciding When to Sell
While buying is straightforward, determining when to sell is the most challenging aspect of trading. This complexity is why I employ a variety of exit strategies. Utilising a Take Profit Stop, a Stale Stop, and a safety net Trailing Stop each plays a crucial role in this process. These tools collectively aid in making informed decisions, ensuring a balanced and effective trading approach.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Understanding Exit Conditions
The multi-exit conditions encompass several scenarios: the triggering of the trailing stop, the fulfilment of the stale stop condition, or the activation of the take-profit stop. Should any of these conditions be met, the trading strategy promptly issues a sell signal, closes the current position, and updates the necessary variables. To further enhance trading efficiency, the code is designed to invalidate any existing buy signals upon the generation of a sell signal, thereby preventing immediate re-entry post-exit. This comprehensive approach ensures a balanced and effective trading strategy.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Deciphering the ‘Trailing Stop’ Feature
@bettamania, my exit strategy features a ‘Trailing Stop’ mechanism (just one of many), engineered to protect profits and limit losses, regardless of the market’s direction. This dynamic tool, unlike static stops, adapts to market changes. It allows users to set the percentage that triggers the trailing stop, whether the market is ascending or descending. Additionally, users can tailor the trailing stop to their trading style by choosing whether it’s based on the closing price or the highest price of the price bars. While I employ a standard setting of 20%, you have the flexibility to adjust this percentage according to your risk profile.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Understanding the ‘Stale Stop’ Feature
The ‘Stale Stop’ function is designed to exit positions after a specified period, mitigating the risk of maintaining underperforming or ‘stale’ positions. This feature is activated either by a certain number of bars since the entry or when a predefined level is reached, depending on which happens first. This ensures a proactive approach to trading, keeping your portfolio fresh and responsive to market changes.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

The Significance of Looping in Exit Strategies
The looping mechanism plays a pivotal role in managing the exit conditions I've just explained. It sequentially navigates through each bar in the dataset, vigilantly monitoring the position and updating exit conditions as needed. The loop checks for the emergence of buy signals and verifies if the position is currently engaged in a trade. Upon detecting a buy signal and confirming that the position is not yet in a trade, it kick-starts the trade and commences tracking the exit conditions. This iterative process ensures a dynamic and responsive trading strategy.

By understanding and implementing these exit strategies, traders can enhance their chances of success in the dynamic and exciting world of trading.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Understanding the ‘Take Profit Stop’ Feature
All my trading strategies incorporate a "Take Profit Stop" feature. This is designed to secure profits once the price reaches a specified target level. The Take Profit Stop uses a multiplier based on the Average True Range (ATR) - a widely used metric in trading - to calculate the profit target. Not everyone favours this style of exit strategy, but when tuned correctly, it tends to be successful more often than not.

Skate.