Dump it Here

Skate · 12 January 2024

ducati916 said:
gold will find increased demand as more nations de-dollarize. As day follows night, must mean that an alternative reserve asset must replace USD/UST, which will be gold.

With ongoing discussions with @ducati916, I'll post my comments here as an alternative perspective.

While China's official stance may not explicitly state that it wants the yuan to become a reserve asset, its actions suggest that it is actively working towards this goal.

China has been taking significant steps to promote the use of the yuan globally, such as establishing free trade zones where the yuan can be used encouraging foreign central banks to hold yuan reserves. These efforts aim to increase the yuan's influence and liquidity, which could potentially establish it as a reserve currency in the future.

China's desire to diversify its foreign exchange reserves and reduce its reliance on the US dollar is well-documented. As the yuan becomes more widely used and accepted, it could potentially increase China's influence in global economic affairs.

I see China as a duck swimming on a pond, calm above the water "but" working furiously underneath. To keep my posts to a minimum, my next post is my views on the developing threat of China.

Skate.

Skate · 12 January 2024

IMHO, the ambitions of China is to shift the global power structure
Since the end of World War II, the world has experienced an unprecedented era of peace, with the United States and its allies dominating the global stage. However, the rise of China as a dominant force in the Pacific is signalling a potential shift that could disrupt this tranquillity.

President Xi Jinping's recent statements reflect China's desire to reshape the international order and assert itself as a formidable global player. This ambition is evident in China's expanding military presence, with bases in strategic locations. Despite assurances from Xi Jinping that China does not intend to exert power beyond its borders, scepticism remains due to past discrepancies between promises and actions in the "South China Sea" and the unification of "Hong Kong".

The evolving dynamics of military and economic power between China and Western nations suggest a future marked by increased tension and instability. Recognising the magnitude of China's aspirations is crucial for understanding the potential shifts in the global power structure.

In conclusion, China's strategic pursuit of power in our region has already begun many moons ago and international re-ordering will be next "as I see it".

Skate.

divs4ever · 12 January 2024

Skate said:
These companies are already in my investment Portfolio
1. ANZ - Dividend Yield: 6.6%, Franking Credits: 56%
2. BHP - Dividend Yield: 4.7%, Franking Credits: 100%
3. CBA - Dividend Yield: 3.9%, Franking Credits: 100%
4. FMG - Dividend Yield: 7.6%, Franking Credits: 100%
5. MFG - Dividend Yield: 8.0%, Franking Credits: 85%
6. WDS - Dividend Yield: 11.7%, Franking Credits: 100%

SUGGESTED INCLUSION LIST
BFG - Dividend Yield: 5.3%, Franking Credits: 100%
TLS - Dividend Yield: 4.4%, Franking Credits: 100%

I've included a mix of high-yielding stocks with good franking credits to maximise my returns. The addition of BFG, and TLS, rounds out my portfolio to 8 positions, providing a diversified mix of stocks across different industries.

Skate.

interesting that the ANZ franking is so low , MFG i can understand

but yes finding suitable stocks at this time is not so easy

divs4ever · 12 January 2024

Skate said:
China has been taking significant steps to promote the use of the yuan globally, such as establishing free trade zones where the yuan can be used encouraging foreign central banks to hold yuan reserves. These efforts aim to increase the yuan's influence and liquidity, which could potentially establish it as a reserve currency in the future

does it ?

i see 'the world reserve currency ' as a double edged sword

i think China would prefer to be an important part of a bloc currency ( something similar to the euro ) where monetary policy will still work for trade balances but they still get some say in the exchange rates without outright rigging/jaw-boning

China has more than a billion people of course there is a lot going on , especially since many of them are productive and inventive

not like some rivals heading towards social welfare communism

Skate · 12 January 2024

divs4ever said:
interesting that the ANZ franking is so low , MFG i can understand

but yes finding suitable stocks at this time is not so easy

The level of franking reflects the diverse geographical nature of its operations and the timing of its proposed acquisition of the banking segment of Suncorp Group Ltd (ASX: SUN).

# Franking going forward will be a reflection of the profits made in Australia.

Skate.

TimeISmoney · 12 January 2024

divs4ever said:
does it ?

i see 'the world reserve currency ' as a double edged sword

i think China would prefer to be an important part of a bloc currency ( something similar to the euro ) where monetary policy will still work for trade balances but they still get some say in the exchange rates without outright rigging/jaw-boning

China has more than a billion people of course there is a lot going on , especially since many of them are productive and inventive

not like some rivals heading towards social welfare communism

I think the world has to ask itself what is really backing the Yuan currency.

Skate · 12 January 2024

divs4ever said:
does it ?

i see 'the world reserve currency ' as a double edged sword

i think China would prefer to be an important part of a bloc currency ( something similar to the euro ) where monetary policy will still work for trade balances but they still get some say in the exchange rates without outright rigging/jaw-boning

China has more than a billion people of course there is a lot going on , especially since many of them are productive and inventive

not like some rivals heading towards social welfare communism

@divs4ever, your comments are thought-provoking. China's efforts to promote the yuan globally are driven by the goal of enhancing its influence and liquidity. While there are advantages to becoming the world reserve currency, it is plausible that China may lean towards a bloc currency arrangement to retain control over monetary policy and exchange rates. The ultimate path China chooses will be influenced by a range of factors and future developments.

Skate.

Skate · 12 January 2024

TimeISmoney said:
I think the world has to ask itself what is really backing the Yuan currency.

@TimeISmoney what a great question. The backing of the Yuan currency is supported by China's foreign exchange reserves. However, the perception of a currency's value is ultimately influenced by the confidence and trust that other countries have in the currency.

Skate.

divs4ever · 12 January 2024

TimeISmoney said:
I think the world has to ask itself what is really backing the Yuan currency.

the same as most developed world currencies .. trust in that nation's economy/government

if you don't trust it you try to avoid dealing in it

who is in a better place China or the EU , China or the US

you can doubt China as much as you please , but China is still a major manufacturing hub of the modern world , what about those detractors how are they going

dyna · 12 January 2024

TimeISmoney said:
the world has to ask itself what is really backing the Yuan currency.

Answer : Not much !
With the God almighty U. S . buck , you also get a few extra freebies thrown in . Stuff like : democratic elections , rule of law , free , open markets with no government interference in asset allocation , and best of all....Trust.

Nobody , but nobody , trusts the effin' Chinese . Not Putin ,not Kim nor Modi .Even those dumbass Italians have just now announced , they have given up on the " Belt and Road " nonsense.

qldfrog · 12 January 2024

divs4ever said:
the same as most developed world currencies .. trust in that nation's economy/government

if you don't trust it you try to avoid dealing in it

who is in a better place China or the EU , China or the US

you can doubt China as much as you please , but China is still a major manufacturing hub of the modern world , what about those detractors how are they going

My view after working for 3 years in mainland China , is that the west has absolutely no clue about China.
Neither the economic strength, the modernity of the country, the level of indifference vs democratic process and woke pet toys like racism, LGBT, climate change, etc etc.
Lastly it is becoming fashionable to see china as a lost country because of the aging process..aging process the west is pretending solving by importing masses of migrants into welfare while china has grand scale project in automation and AI.
It should be mandatory for all western leaders to have a trip to China, and I trust they have already done the trips to NY, London, Paris as part of "study group".
The comparison might wake them up

TimeISmoney · 12 January 2024

Skate said:
@TimeISmoney what a great question. The backing of the Yuan currency is supported by China's foreign exchange reserves. However, the perception of a currency's value is ultimately influenced by the confidence and trust that other countries have in the currency.

Skate.

I don't think you can trust the economic figures that they release publicly. Their economy isn't as trashed as the Western media makes out but it's definitely on the decline, the Chinese govt is fairly resilient at this stage. It forgets that the US is one of the largest global consumers, pooping in that nest will never end well.

dyna said:
Answer : Not much !
With the God almighty U. S . buck , you also get a few extra freebies thrown in . Stuff like : democratic elections , rule of law , free , open markets with no government interference in asset allocation , and best of all....Trust.

Nobody , but nobody , trusts the effin' Chinese . Not Putin ,not Kim nor Modi .Even those dumbass Italians have just now announced , they have given up on the " Belt and Road " nonsense.

You pretty much said what I didn't want to say publically.

divs4ever said:
the same as most developed world currencies .. trust in that nation's economy/government

if you don't trust it you try to avoid dealing in it

who is in a better place China or the EU , China or the US

you can doubt China as much as you please , but China is still a major manufacturing hub of the modern world , what about those detractors how are they going

I think they're heading towards a world of hurt, big population, an aging population and manufacturing is slowly leaving them because of their geopolitics. Places like India and Vietnam look just as good to manufacture in these days, Vietnam even has its own EV manufacturing.

divs4ever · 12 January 2024

qldfrog said:
My view after working for 3 years in mainland China , is that the west has absolutely no clue about China.
Neither the economic strength, the modernity of the country, the level of indifference vs democratic process and woke pet toys like racism, LGBT, climate change, etc etc.
Lastly it is becoming fashionable to see china as a lost country because of the aging process..aging process the west is pretending solving by importing masses of migrants into welfare while china has grand scale project in automation and AI.
It should be mandatory for all western leaders to have a trip to China, and I trust they have already done the trips to NY, London, Paris as part of "study group".
The comparison might wake them up

the closest i got to visiting China was a three and half day stay in Hong Kong in 1990 ( pre-handover )

but i saw enough , folks hustling off to work at all hours even the footpaths/bridges had roundabouts

not so flash ( in the areas i ventured ) , but no mugging attempts , no offered drug deals , all just busy , busy busy getting on with there lives

a heap of potential still left , i just see a better future for India currently

divs4ever · 12 January 2024

TimeISmoney said:
I don't think you can trust the economic figures that they release publicly. Their economy isn't as trashed as the Western media makes out but it's definitely on the decline, the Chinese govt is fairly resilient at this stage. It forgets that the US is one of the largest global consumers, pooping in that nest will never end well.

having worked for more than 12 years with a major media conglomerate i don't trust the media

now a friend learned business and one of the essential books was Sun Tzu's Art of War ( as in war so in business , is the theory )

not the way i conduct a business but others may

and an early concept is ' all war is based on deception ' after Trump started ramping up tariffs , China would be naive to think anything but they are in a trade war with the US , add it the China can actually make the figures anything they like ( no matter how many extra bodies that takes )

China is very mindful the US is a major consumer nation , but is an unreliable and erratic customer , that is why it is building relationships in Africa and Arab nations ( seemingly not so focused on South America )

the US has about 330 million residents , but other nations have more impoverished citizens ie you can sell each citizen much more ( without the prices being inflated by duties and tariffs )

the US might talk loud but plenty of nations have more citizens with only the bare necessities ( potential customers )

divs4ever · 12 January 2024

dyna said:
Answer : Not much !
With the God almighty U. S . buck , you also get a few extra freebies thrown in . Stuff like : democratic elections , rule of law , free , open markets with no government interference in asset allocation , and best of all....Trust.

Nobody , but nobody , trusts the effin' Chinese . Not Putin ,not Kim nor Modi .Even those dumbass Italians have just now announced , they have given up on the " Belt and Road " nonsense.

not nonsense , the Chinese are hedging against US/West sea blockades ( like the US did to Japan leading u to WW2 )

and why not plenty of folks across Western Europe and Asia you can walk/drive/ catch a train to

TimeISmoney · 12 January 2024

qldfrog said:
My view after working for 3 years in mainland China , is that the west has absolutely no clue about China.
Neither the economic strength, the modernity of the country, the level of indifference vs democratic process and woke pet toys like racism, LGBT, climate change, etc etc.
Lastly it is becoming fashionable to see china as a lost country because of the aging process..aging process the west is pretending solving by importing masses of migrants into welfare while china has grand scale project in automation and AI.
It should be mandatory for all western leaders to have a trip to China, and I trust they have already done the trips to NY, London, Paris as part of "study group".
The comparison might wake them up

I think their world would change for the better if they forgot about the 11 dash line map.

The industrial revolution is nothing new and if you follow history, once a populace climbs out of poverty and educates itself, the endings are all the same. It becomes more economical to manufacture in a poorer nation.

TimeISmoney · 12 January 2024

divs4ever said:
having worked for more than 12 years with a major media conglomerate i don't trust the media

now a friend learned business and one of the essential books was Sun Tzu's Art of War ( as in war so in business , is the theory )

not the way i conduct a business but others may

and an early concept is ' all war is based on deception ' after Trump started ramping up tariffs , China would be naive to think anything but they are in a trade war with the US , add it the China can actually make the figures anything they like ( no matter how many extra bodies that takes )

China is very mindful the US is a major consumer nation , but is an unreliable and erratic customer , that is why it is building relationships in Africa and Arab nations ( seemingly not so focused on South America )

the US has about 330 million residents , but other nations have more impoverished citizens ie you can sell each citizen much more ( without the prices being inflated by duties and tariffs )

the US might talk loud but plenty of nations have more citizens with only the bare necessities ( potential customers )

Developing countries and nations are usually large consumers of natural resources not so much manufactured products. China sucks up to Africa because they have a lot to give, but their political system is very unstable. They have problems with sea pirates boarding cargo ships and holding them at ransom, and mining operations affected by corrupt governments. I don't think getting what they want out of Africa will be smooth sailing for them.

Just thought that I would have a look at the consumer stats while we're talking about it.

ducati916 · 13 January 2024

ducati916 said:
4. I saw them. They have been undertaken by somebody else. Unless you understand the numbers and cross check them, you have just handed your risk management to a third party. What is their incentive?

5. So two points: (i) dealing with a company that is already busted is very different to seeing in real time, one that is deteriorating and (ii) up to $25K. So your companies are capitalised in the BILLIONS. Two of them are banks, the most opaque difficult financial statements to analyse/understand. Slight difference n'est pas?

So one of the latest frauds, ignored by the auditors until too late.

LOL.

jog on
duc

Skate · 28 January 2024

peter2 said:
I do hope you keep a little cash available for a few systems, just to keep your skills tuned.

Confessions of an ex-trader
I want to share with you my trading journey and how I developed and tested my "Volatility Bounce Strategy (VB Strategy), a trading system that uses volatility and aims to buy companies that bounce off a support level. It also incorporates an RSI indicator to generate buy signals.

My trading journey started just over two years ago with an idea. I wanted to create a trading strategy that could identify companies that are in an uptrend, have strong momentum, and are bouncing off a support level. I also wanted to use RSI as a filter to avoid buying stocks that are overbought or in a downtrend.

The first step in developing my VB Strategy was to code it. Once I had coded the strategy, the next step was to test it. This involved simulating trades using historical data to see how the strategy would have performed in the past. This step is crucial in determining the strategy's effectiveness and identifying any potential issues.

After I was satisfied with the backtest results, I decided to paper trade the strategy (starting on the 1st of February 2023). For those who don’t know “Paper trading” is a way of testing the strategy in real-time without risking any money. It involves recording the trades that the strategy would generate and tracking their performance.

The VB Strategy has this weekend completed a "12-month paper trading period" and I've been monitoring its performance closely. Finally, after all the hard work, the strategy is ready for live trading just when I’ve decided to take a break and invest my funds instead. As a side note, I would have no hesitation trading the VB Strategy live.

The Takeaway
Developing a trading strategy is a time-consuming process that requires patience, dedication, and a willingness to learn. The "VB Strategy" is a prime example of this, taking just over two years to complete the journey from idea to having it match-ready for live trading.

So, the next time you're thinking about developing a trading strategy, remember the "VB Strategy" and the effort that went into creating it. With persistence hard work and determination (PhD), you too can create a successful trading strategy that can help you achieve your financial goals.

Skate.

Skate · 28 January 2024

For those who are interested in System Trading
It’s no wonder system traders fail along the way as developing a strategy from scratch is a “Time-Consuming Journey”. As traders, we're always on the lookout for new and profitable trading strategies. But have you ever stopped to think about the time and effort that goes into developing one?

The paper Trading results
I have now completed the evaluation and paper trading phase of the "Volatility Bounce Strategy" and the results are in.

Share Trade Tracker (Dashboard)
Other than myself I assume others would have little interest in drilling down so in this post I'll upload a capture of the important metrics. In the following post, I'll explain the strategy and signals in more detail.

Skate.

Dump it Here

Similar threads

Privacy & Transparency

Privacy & Transparency