Dump it Here

[Skate]

the bat is reaching for the sky, leaving that lead footed shiny Platinum showoff behind

Trading non-related strategies
At times trading non-related strategies smooth the equity curve. Combine that with two different trading styles one being more aggressive than the other & the nail-biting aspect of trading becomes less of an issue. The combined results are ultimately what we strive for. Rating a strategy by performance is highly overrated as the combination of the performance is more meaningful.

Combination of two non-related strategies
Instead of trading "one" 20 position portfolio, the "Shootout" trades "two" 10 position portfolios & after 16 weeks both strategies are now in profit. When you first start trading a new strategy it's really disappointing to experience immediate drawdowns when your portfolio goes underwater. Accepting early losses is easier to handle if you have confidence in your own work. Most traders lack patience & at times lack the knowledge of how "system trading" really works.

Combined Dashboard




The Individual Equity Curve



Skate.

 

[Skate]

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Amibroker Exploration Analysis Raw Signals
There are no sell signals for the 'Flying Bat Strategy" this week so there are no positions to buy. The Raw signal below is generated but are not required. All raw signals are posted nevertheless.






Skate.

 

[qldfrog]

View attachment 140482


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View attachment 140483


Amibroker Exploration Analysis Raw Signals
There are no sell signals for the 'Flying Bat Strategy" this week so there are no positions to buy. The Raw signal below is generated but are not required. All raw signals are posted nevertheless.

View attachment 140484


View attachment 140485

Skate.

So there are no raw sell signal either?As i missed one buy previously , i purchased AGY as part of previous raw buys..just want to make sure it is not on sell this monday?

 

[Skate]

So there are no raw sell signal either?As i missed one buy previously , i purchased AGY as part of previous raw buys..just want to make sure it is not on sell this monday?

First off
AGY is not a sell at the moment.

Trading using Amibroker "Exploration" Raw Signals
The beauty of trading using Amibroker raw signals is that they generate every signals that match your precise mathematical formulas whereas trading using the Amibrokers "Portfolio Manager" has a disadvantage in this regard. The "Portfolio Manager" only reports signals for positions that are already in the portfolio at the time the report is generated.

Missing a signal for whatever reason is okay
Raw signals allow you to trade at any time for whatever reason whereas if the signal was not in the "Portfolio Manager" a sell signal would never be generated.

Why do I prefer trading using raw signals?
Well for a few reasons. I can elect to skip a signal if it falls outside of my trading plan or my conviction wouldn't allow me to trade certain commodities. Sometimes I'll hate a company from a previous trade experience or for a million other reasons. Heck, I can even elect to take a break for a week or two & rejoin trading when time or my mood permits.

Joining late
One member in the trading group had funds delayed & wanted to know if it was too late to start trading the strategy as he missed the first 3 weeks? I explained it doesn't matter at all as "raw signals" keep coming. This means if he misses one signal or elects to take the next signal makes no difference at all.

Signals
@qldfrog rest assured when "AGY" needs to be sold there will be a raw signal to do so & it will be included in the weekly post. It's a good time to explain to others that whether a position is in profit or experiencing a loss is irrelevant when it comes time to sell that position. The decision to sell a position is dependent on a multitude of reasons that are all calculated using precise formulas.

(AGY) this week is a "hold"



Skate.

 

[Skate]

Something to be careful of is that in reality you aren't missing random trades, you are missing a very specific type of trade. The trades that gap up on open and don't look back. It's worth checking how many of your winners start this way.

Trading using Amibrokers "Exploration Analysis Signals"
In the previous post, I explained that there are "reasons" why I elect to trade using the raw signals the "Exploration Analysis" generates. One of the main reasons is that calculations are coded for the "number of shares to buy" at an "offer" for trading in the pre-auction. The last column is a double-check that my investment doesn't exceed the maximum value of each trade.

Re-balancing my next bet size
At times my remaining "trade" bank balance increases, as well as decreases & those values, need to be considered when it comes to working out my next bet size. Using the "Exploration Analysis" this feature is easily calculated making sure every dollar allocated to trading is fully deployed. This feature alone is worthy of trading this method rather than using Amibroker's "Portfolio Manager" feature.

Missing a signal because of "Gapping at the open"
@Lone Wolf pointed out in a previous post that "missing a signal" or signals of a "certain types" being (Gap-Ups) can skew your trading results in the long run, which is fair enough & it's a valid point for him to raise. I choose to trade in the pre-auction with a maximum "offer price" ensuring my calculations fall within the metric of my trading style (F.Y.I. - the buy position is only valid for one day).

My style works for me
I'm contented in missing those odd signals that punch above my offer & Gap-Up at the open. I should also say in my defense that the "offer" determines the number of shares purchased at the open. Allowing for "Gap-Ups" alters the number of shares purchased that at times the allocated funds won't cover.

Also the "Exploration Analysis" all the work is pre-done
Even to a beginner trading "Raw Signal" could be any easier as they are in the order the signal are placed into the markets. Colour coding also helps to understand why a position is being sold. Simply, trading this way is a piece of cake.



Skate.

 

[Newt]

Why do I prefer trading using raw signals?
Well for a few reasons. I can elect to skip a signal if it falls outside of my trading plan or my conviction wouldn't allow me to trade certain commodities. Sometimes I'll hate a company from a previous trade experience or for a million other reasons. Heck, I can even elect to take a break for a week or two & rejoin trading when time or my mood permits.

That's the only nanometer of discretionary admission I've seen from you for a while Skate.
Glad to see some humanity in your "trading machine". I'm sure there would be relatively few signals you'd let fall through to the keeper in the end.

 

[Skate]

I'm sure there would be relatively few signals you'd let fall through to the keeper in the end.

@Newt not many go through to the keeper, “Deed of Arrangement” & “take over offers” are the exception as they fall foul of my trading plan.

I trade all the signals
Other than those two exceptions I trade everything than comes along because I just don’t know which ones will be the winners.

Skate.

 

[Newt]

Excellent, so in effect these are not discretionary over-rides but things you can't currently code that are complications worth avoiding. Would be interested if you have any particular website you recommend for finding and dodging those 2 situations?

 

[Skate]

Excellent, so in effect these are not discretionary over-rides but things you can't currently code that are complications worth avoiding. Would be interested if you have any particular website you recommend for finding and dodging those 2 situations?

I trade with Commsec
@Newt, before I entry any position I check the previous 3 months of announcements that are found on the individual security webpage & if neither is mentioned I’m good to go.

To be honest
I don’t know or even care what security I’m buying or for that matter what the company does. Some will say “boo, hiss” but to me it’s just a game of mathematics. Also, thinking to me is overrated when all my entry & exit positions are coded with absolute precision & I’m not smart enough to override any of them.

Skate.

 

[DaveTrade]

all my entry & exit positions are coded with absolute precision & I’m not smart enough to override any of them

But smart enough not too.

 

[Lone Wolf]

Missing a signal because of "Gapping at the open"
@Lone Wolf pointed out in a previous post that "missing a signal" or signals of a "certain types" being (Gap-Ups) can skew your trading results in the long run, which is fair enough & it's a valid point for him to raise. I choose to trade in the pre-auction with a maximum "offer price" ensuring my calculations fall within the metric of my trading style (F.Y.I. - the buy position is only valid for one day).

My quote was specifically replying to qldfrog who was at the time trying to simulate the impact of missed buy orders due to open gaps by setting a random chance to skip a trade. My response was that I don't think it's the same because you aren't missing them at random, you're missing the ones that exhibit a very specific behaviour.

But that's more an academic conversation had when trying to get your backtest as close as practical to reality. The number of stocks I've personally missed in real trading due to this is statistically insignificant, but that would vary depending on what you trade. There's also nothing you can do really. You need to set a limit, most (all?) brokers force you to set a limit somewhere reasonably close to the action so you can't just put in a $1000 limit to guarantee your fill. Nor would I want to. My system relies on a certain set of conditions. My expectation of future higher prices is based on getting in an a specific point following those conditions. If I can't get the entry point I want then too bad. There will be others.

You can easily set up Amibroker backtest to ignore a trade if it gaps up. But the problem is it will replace it with a different stock when in reality your money went unallocated that day. You could do some complicated thing where if it gaps up, you enter the trade, then exit intra bar at a price equal to the entry price, thus preventing another position being taken while making no profit on the gap up trade and making the funds available for the next set of signals. But I feel going to this effort would be majoring in the minors.

It's still worth looking in your backtests to see if your biggest outliers are valid entries. Peter2 said recently that while some back testers would remove outliers from their system to get a better idea of the average performance, he sees outliers as an opportunity. How do I position myself to maximize the chance of being involved when the outliers come along? I'd suggest doing both. How well does the system work without the lucky outliers? How well does the system take advantage of the outliers that are bound to come around?

 

[qldfrog]

You could do some complicated thing where if it gaps up, you enter the trade, then exit intra bar at a price equal to the entry price, thus preventing another position being taken while making no profit on the gap up trade and making the funds available for the next set of signals. But I feel going to this effort would be majoring in the minors.

I was actually thinking the same or similar by buy one share and dumping it at next open..but you are probay right..might not be worse.
Changing the realm: higher sp,more traded stocks seem yo make a significant difference in these missing trades number which are indeed often the up gapping ones and are the outliers. Which make the difference between win or loss in most of my systems

 

[Skate]

Nick Radge once said
"The trader's life becomes a revolving door of disappointment & frustration as they move from method to method without consistent results, they flip from one stock trading system to another, perhaps discarding methods prematurely. The trader's life becomes a revolving door of disappointment & frustration as they move from method to method without consistent results, also known as the beginner's cycle."

Nick also went on to say
"Whichever methods you choose, the goal is to gain a better understanding of yourself & most importantly realise whether you have any repeating operating patterns, usually subconscious, that may be hindering your trading performance. It takes time to work on a trading plan & develop a strong trader's psychology. It is essential for every successful trader to learn more about money management, create & test other trading ideas thoroughly. This can be accomplished more thoroughly if the trader is not pressurised with the expectation of immediate results. As capital allows, strategies can be added to the trading plan & by then the trader will have a much more solid foundation, which will contribute to future growth."

Stop Strategy Jumping
I received this video link in an email today & it's worth the 15 minutes of your time to watch & absorb the message. The video is basically a summary of Nick's two paragraphs above.



Skate.

 

[Skate]

Trading is scary
Each strategy I trade has been backtested to death because when my money is on the line I try to leave nothing to chance. The strategies aren't perfect but they are useful when it comes to making a few "bob". The fear of losing money is the single biggest factor why traders don’t follow their strategy & start fiddling at the edges as explained in the previous post.

Fear turns to Anger
When overriding a strategy turns out to be the wrong decision "fear will soon turn to anger". When your emotions run high it pays not to trade because another wrong decision makes the situation worse.

Selling is cheap
When in doubt, I say "pull out". Too many seem to think that if they sell a stock, they are somehow prevented from buying it back again. Not so. For most traders, the biggest stumbling block to selling is mental.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Skate.

 

[Skate]

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[Skate]

AGY is not a sell at the moment
@qldfrog rest assured when "AGY" needs to be sold there will be a raw signal to do so.




Skate.

 

[Skate]

Skate.