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- 28 December 2013
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I'm completely unsure about your sell signal on this one, especially with the price of gold increasing and hitting ATH's.
I'm completely unsure about your sell signal on this one, especially with the price of gold increasing and hitting ATH's.
Truly appreciate the information overload you're providing.
A top shelf question Duc. I'd be sweating like a snowman in heat!Why do traders lose at trading?
You have a system. It trades 'X'. It is backtested, drawdown does not exceed 23% across a market history of 10 years. Looks good. You forward test it, drawdown does not exceed 17.5%. Looks good. You trade it live. You immediately go into drawdown over a period of 3 weeks by let's say 39%. Is your system broken? What do you actually do at this point? If you cannot answer this question, you have no business in the markets yet.
I'm interested in the answers.
Seems great.well doneHi Skate,
I started to write this post Fri night then held off, but in keeping with the sharing shown so often here, have written up some backtests from my newest system, cooked up pre-Easter in the heat of Covid. For over a year I'd meant to do a serious dis-assembly and rebuild of CAM in line with my own experiences and preferences. During this time finally took the trouble to track entry and exits on the price pane, calculate and display % profit for closed trades. Seeing backtests from yourself and others led to me targetting certain goals, including:
- (hopefully) improved average win
- reduced average loss (previoiusly always over 15%)
- (hopefully) reduced DD even in very difficult periods
- take more weekly trades, hopefully with smoother equity curve, faster entries into new strong market periods
Many ideas for entry, exit, trailing stop, index filtering were tried to create new systems in addition to CAM. A couple of ideas showed more promise than I expected and warranted more attention. The backtests below are from a strategy incorporating principles of your variable trailing stops (tigthening off ROC and index filter), trend filter ideas of my own, entry signals inspired by Panda posts many months ago. After many months of stress-testing parameters decided to trade this from May.
Have heard Mike Bellafiore say in "Chat with Trader" podcasts that people underestimate just how hard it is to get "edge", and that even the best traders may have now greater than 50% winning trades. He went on to say a lot of "psychology" challenges stem from having to cope with poor performance and edge.
Anyhow, last few months the stronger expected edge versus previous systems has held for this beast. I'm sharing these tests with and without ticker ZNO included, to show how just one stock can lead your backtesting and optimising astray if not careful. Actually that was another goal here - to reduce reliance on long trends in a small number of tickers (something I'd designed my previous strategy to do from the ground up), but ironically a strong trend in ZNO still affected outcomes.
8/8/19 - 8/8/20 (without, then with ZNO - All ords and historical constituents):
View attachment 107135
View attachment 107136
1/1/19 - 31/12/19 (without, then with ZNO - All ords and historical constituents):
View attachment 107139
View attachment 107138
A couple of ideas showed more promise than I expected and warranted more attention. The backtests below are from a strategy incorporating principles of your variable trailing stops (tigthening off ROC and index filter), trend filter ideas of my own, entry signals inspired by Panda posts many months ago. After many months of stress-testing parameters decided to trade this from May.
A top shelf question Duc. I'd be sweating like a snowman in heat!
Every time my system exits with the index filter then re-enters, it immediately goes into drawdown as I sell off and crawls back. Happening the past few months yet again and never nice but don't deviate.
39% would be nasty. In that particular case, I'd be going back another 10 years (20 total) and check results. I'd also be looking at the recent market period and if there was something similar in the past 20 years to compare before considering it broken.
BTW if you had said it was already backtested 20 years, then what? Again looking at the past for a similar market. If most recent was actually worse, then consider continuing. If not, then maybe adjust with fresh new backtests
Missing travel maybe..i do but actually too busy right now to spend the time i need on my systemsNope, I live in NSW.
Skate.
* Following from the last point, the risk of losing edge from publically sharing trade entry/exit, strategy etc here for longer timeframes is probably negligible - there are just so many ways to skin the cat and the markets are always there.
Fantastic post, many thanks Duc. Skate has hinted more us would benefit from listening and then rolling our sleeves up. We probably all pick up on different parts of your message(s) depending on trading experience, outlier "lessons" learned, and personal mindset. We're fortunate to have such helpful information density, but sometimes it pretty hard trying to drink from the fire hose!
Happy to help Skate. I have a little (0.5%) slippage dialed in both ways normally - probably doesn't matter much zoomed in this close - should that be removed?
@Newt , fully agree with your fantastic post. I have read along with @Skate (& traded along the Action Strategy) particularly since the Covid19 crash. This period has opened my eyes to Index filters. I have implemented the Index filter as a "caution" to only turn off on another indicator, hopefully to be able to catch this stocks which take off notwithstanding the general market conditions.
@Newt@Newt another amazing post & your last point is on message. I'm an oversharer but that's just me & in the scheme of things it makes no difference. There is a ton of money in the markets & I only want a very small slice.
Skate.
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