Personally I consider myself a simple man. One of the smartest chaps I know resembles a walking encyclopedia (he is getting on in years unfortunately) When I am fortunate enough to chew a bit of fat with him, I mainly listen as you suggest @Skate
To his absolute credit, he is extremely humble in his knowledge and constantly reminds me "he knows nothing" … he simply repeats what he has read/learned/digested etc etc as part of his life experience. I guess true knowledge is accepting we know very little in reality and therefore become open to greater possibilities.
Faulty Thinking (It's the typical way we tend to think)
I read an article many years ago about how Doctors think leading to patients being misdiagnosed. When you sit down & explain to your Doctor in a few words the reason for the visit most Doctors jump to a conclusion already having in mind two or three possible diagnoses within minutes of meeting you as a patient.
I'll paraphrase the Story from memory
First off, I would like to confirm the story I'm about to tell is fictitious & to confirm to readers "I've never forgotten anything that I can remember" (said tongue in cheek)
It a common condition that would send most of us to the Emergency Room of a hospital
The story is about a guy who experienced muscle pains, chest pains whilst enjoying his regular evening walk, after a few days the pain never went away completely. He frequently experienced muscle aches & minor discomfort as his job entailed physical work. This time he decided to see a Doctor taking himself off to the emergency room to save going to his GP taking time off work. He explained to the Doctor in (ER) that the pain was in his chest & didn't spread to his arms, neck or back, with no family history of heart attack, never smoked with no stress & his family life was fine. The doctor checked his vitals & they were in range for a typical for a 60 year old fit looking athletic man. The Doctor sent him for an ECG, Chest X-Ray & blood tests & all the results looked normal
The "Diagnosis"
The Doctor told him that he had probably over exerted himself & strained a muscle & the discomfort in the chest was nothing to be worried about.
The next morning
When the guy represent to the (ER) the next morning they discovered he had a heart attack
Why did the Doctor miss it?
The Doctor didn’t miss it because of any egregious behaviour, lack of knowledge or negligence. He missed it because of (faulty thinking) as his thinking was overly influenced by how healthy this man looked & the absence of risk factors. It's amazing to read the number of errors made by doctors especially faulty decisions made under the stressful conditions of the emergency room. It's an old saying: "The undertakers "cover-up" Doctors mistakes"
Time pressures & jumping to conclusions
Doctors begin to diagnose patients the moment they meet & tend to develop their hunches from incomplete information, jumping to conclusions. Doctors are dealing with uncertainty of symptoms being presented that are conveyed over a short space of time that can lead to mistakes in medical judgment, a misdiagnoses by snapping to the easiest decision is how doctors think.
As Traders
It pays for us not to think like a Doctor, we have "time & technology" allowing us to make informed rational decisions - make sure you use both in this game.
Skate.
I think that is another of your classics Skate, a quote from a 'B' grade movie always comes to mind, "assumption, is the mother of all f#%k ups". As you say, investment isn't life and death, it doesn't require an instant response.
BUT if it requires your attention, spend some time thinking on it.
I just blew $14k, because I didn't stop for a moment and think on it.
That's a big chunk of money sptrawler!I think that is another of your classics Skate, a quote from a 'B' grade movie always comes to mind, "assumption, is the mother of all f#%k ups".
As you say, investment isn't life and death, it doesn't require an instant response.
BUT if it requires your attention, spend some time thinking on it.
I just blew $14k, because I didn't stop for a moment and think on it.
Absolutely, looking after grandkids, daughter away, son and extra grandkids arrive = bedlam.That's a big chunk of money sptrawler!
Hope you have learnt something important from it. I find some of the biggest life lessons including trading lessons come from mistakes.
Absolutely, looking after grandkids, daughter away, son and extra grandkids arrive = bedlam.
I thought jeez I should sell them shares, no too busy do it next week, the next time I look they are $14k less.
Still $13k up but it was a one of, that wont be repeated, I think they will recover and do better but that was just laziness on my part.
@sptrawler people don’t realise that life is just making one decision after another, making the right decision has a huge bearing on the quality of your life.
I find some of the biggest life lessons including trading lessons come from mistakes.
I thought jeez I should sell them shares, no too busy do it next week..... that was just laziness on my part
Hum so did you sell..or are you following the classic:Still $13k up but it was a one of, that wont be repeated, I think they will recover and do better but that was just laziness on my part.
For those who subscribe to "Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities" magazine.
Disclaimer
I have a keen interest in reducing the lag of indicators.
WOW!
A Zero-Lag indicator, (honestly I don't believe you can Zero-Lag an indicator otherwise it's the mean)
Snippet from the magazine
“Reflex: A New Zero-Lag Indicator” in this issue, author John Ehlers introduces a new averaging indicator that he has designed with reducing lag in mind. According to the author, his new indicator can be used to generate signals in a more timely manner than other lagging calculations. In his article, Ehlers provides TradeStation EasyLanguage.
Trader Tips
Also Trader Tips supply a variety of codes for other software. With the supplied indicators code you can develop your own indicators and strategies. "But there is no Amibroker code listed". It needs to be coded.
REFLEX
I have just downloaded the February 2020 copy of "Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities" & there is an article by John Ehlers who introduces a new averaging indicator (the RELEX indicator) designed with reducing lag in mind.
Personal Interest
This has been a subject of interest for me for quite sometime & I've found reducing the lag of the EMA to be a profitable & useful in my trading (the concept to reduce lag is not new, the idea has been around for decades)
PANDA (previously discussion of the PANDA Strategy can be found here: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/1051864/ )
I have a strategy devoted to trading signals from the reduced lag of the exponential moving average (EMA) - Moving Average indicators in all forms have two common characteristics - they lag and they smooth data. The PANDA Strategy uses the feature of reducing lag of an (EMA) allowing signals rapid adaptation to volatility in price movement. Some lag is needed & the amount of lag determines the timing of the signals this in turn changes the responsiveness that's best suited for trend-following systems - the very reason I believe it's impossible to achieve Zero Lag. The article is a new way (a different way) to reduce lag (IMHO) & I'm interested to see how it compares to PANDA.
AmiBroker
Sometimes they don't include the code for Amibroker but there is code for those who use the software listed below. As there is no code written in AmiBroker for his new "Reflex" Zero-Lag Indicator I thought it might be a worthwhile exercise to code it & check the performance against PANDA.
REFLEX Code
For those interested alternative code is kindly supplied for the software below but as I've mentioned there is no AmiBroker code available
Codes for the REFLEX indicator can be found here: http://traders.com/Documentation/FEEDbk_docs/2020/02/TradersTips.html
TRADESTATION: FEBRUARY 2020
eSIGNAL: FEBRUARY 2020
WEALTH-LAB: FEBRUARY 2020
NEUROSHELL TRADER: FEBRUARY 2020
NINJATRADER: FEBRUARY 2020
TRADERSSTUDIO: FEBRUARY 2020
MICROSOFT EXCEL: FEBRUARY 2020
THINKORSWIM: FEBRUARY 2020
QUANTACULA STUDIO: FEBRUARY 2020
Comparison
After I convert John Ehlers new averaging indicator (the RELEX indicator) to AmiBroker code I'll make a new strategy to take advantage of his ideas & directly compare it to the PANDA strategy. At this stage I'm uncertain how they will compare , for one I'll be interested. If there is anyone else interested in the comparison I'll post it up when its done. All you have to do is ask. Why? I only want to post on subjects members find interesting or educational.
Skate.
Nothing new to see here !!
After reading the article by John Ehlers & his new indicator designed to reduce lag - well frankly, I was doing cartwheels. My excitement got the better of me, enthusiastically I couldn't wait to make a post on the indicator (a topic I find interesting).
Sad news
John Ehlers new averaging indicator (the RELEX indicator) is a rehash of an idea he has written about many, many moons ago (minor parameter changes at best). I believe magazines work on the principle of readers having a bad memory. (they must be working on the theory of: "what's old is new again")
Also the indicator is lacking
John Ehlers new (the RELEX indicator) is slow to catch the signals, causing the greatest concern of lower performance, but the REFLEX indicator displays consistency (meaning: it consistently grabs the signals "late")
I'll post up some charts of late signals
As they say a "picture paints a thousand words" - for comparison the charts are displayed together.
ASX: AVJ
View attachment 99723
ASX:SRG
View attachment 99724
The REFLEX Strategy - Backtest Results (exactly 1 year)
View attachment 99727
The PANDA Strategy - Backtest Results for the same period (exactly 1 year)
View attachment 99728
Summary
I'm disappointed..
Skate.
What about on a longer period? Is it also picking up the same symbols from your other systems? If not, could be a way to diversify (though I know you run 3 systems so you are fairly diversified already). At the end of the day, that return is still a significant return so could be useful for some depending on what they are after.
Perhaps we could temper that with … "Making the wrong decision" is still better than making no decision at all?! …. and ...
A "wrong" decision at one point in time can hopefully lead to an even better "right" decision in the future when its even more important!
I believe they call that experience
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