Do you have to day trade to trade full time?

[shortlist]

I add a word on punting in general. Mr J is right - we're all basically punting; your success is dependent upon how you mitigate risk. Over-reliance on a single source of information increases risk and therefore pushes you closer to pure punting. An understanding of certain fundamental global processes will push you further away from pure punting towards considered or calculated risk, etc. At this stage, and I am a newbie in this matter, of course, I would consider making a trde on the basis of a chart alone pure punting.

The point being you would have to know what a trader was doing in terms of all this before you could correctly accuse him or her of being a punter.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

main key to success on 1min trading I have found is not over trading, as the commissions add up and not only eat into profits but rub salt into the losers!

Trading under 1 min is a real challenge, you have to be mentally focused non stop and process all data coming at u in the blink of an eye.

the test that hits me is the need to cut bad trades fast, while not being over zealous in cutting one that just needs a little more time.

 

[tech/a]

At this stage, and I am a newbie in this matter, of course, I would consider making a trde on the basis of a chart alone pure punting.

Clearly

The point being you would have to know what a trader was doing in terms of all this before you could correctly accuse him or her of being a punter.

Yet as a pure chartist you consider me a punter.

"I would consider making a trde on the basis of a chart alone pure punting."
would you not-----" have to know what a trader was doing in terms of all this before you could correctly accuse him or her of being a punter".

You have no chance of being profitable unless you know why your trading will deliver you positive expectancy.

 

[wayneL]

1/ Is a casino patron punting? Why?

2/ Is the casino punting? Why?

The answers to these questions will give an insight into whether a pure chart trader is punting.

Some actually are punting .

Some actually aren't.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Some actually are punting .

Some actually aren't.

damn straight

 

[Boggo]

2/ Is the casino punting? Why?

No, I don't think it is Wayne, the casino has done its homework like tech/a has and they win 52% to 57% of the time, they know that their method is going to deliver them 2c to 7c of every dollar that is turned over in their establishment.

That's not punting, that's business, any other approach will fail eventually.
Do you think that Crown Casino itself is a punter/gambler with these figures...
Net operating profit before tax and significant items has risen by 35.2% from $254.614 million in the previous corresponding period to $344.242 million. EPS declined to 33.74 cents. Return on Assets (ROA) rose from 3.38% to 6.51%.

The mug punter who changes his notes for chips has no idea of the outcome, the card counter however has done his homework and knows the potential outcome therefore cannot be called a punter (but he will get banned anyway if he starts to impinge on the 2% to 7% profit )

 

[wayneL]

No, I don't think it is Wayne, the casino has done its homework like tech/a has and they win 52% to 57% of the time, they know that their method is going to deliver them 2c to 7c of every dollar that is turned over in their establishment.

That's not punting, that's business, any other approach will fail eventually.
Do you think that Crown Casino itself is a punter/gambler with these figures...
Net operating profit before tax and significant items has risen by 35.2% from $254.614 million in the previous corresponding period to $344.242 million. EPS declined to 33.74 cents. Return on Assets (ROA) rose from 3.38% to 6.51%.

LOL

Don't you see that that is precisely the point I was making?

The patron is the gambler with negative mathematical expectancy.

The casino is a business that provides gambling entertainment with a positive mathematical expectancy.

And so it is with chartists.

Some are one, some are the other.

Tech/a is only one of many who have also done their homework.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

LOL

Don't you see that that is precisely the point I was making?

The patron is the gambler with negative mathematical expectancy.

The casino is a business that provides gambling entertainment with a positive mathematical expectancy.

And so it is with chartists.

Some are one, some are the other.

Tech/a is only one of many who have also done their homework.

Just for some semantic tickling of the senses: even though a business may have a positive expectancy, that positive expectancy is useless if there are no customers. So demand is an issue and something that is taken a punt on when opening up a business or taking over an existing business. Demand is never constant and tied to economic conditions.

But good points above.

 

[tech/a]

Just for some semantic tickling of the senses: even though a business may have a positive expectancy, that positive expectancy is useless if there are no customers. So demand is an issue and something that is taken a punt on when opening up a business or taking over an existing business. Demand is never constant and tied to economic conditions.

But good points above.

Sound business is to place yourself in front of demand,and remove yourself from markets which display little or no demand.(In of course the timeframe in which you do business.)

 

[shortlist]

main key to success on 1min trading I have found is not over trading, as the commissions add up and not only eat into profits but rub salt into the losers!

Trading under 1 min is a real challenge, you have to be mentally focused non stop and process all data coming at u in the blink of an eye.

the test that hits me is the need to cut bad trades fast, while not being over zealous in cutting one that just needs a little more time.

I could develop an interest in trading on this timescale, but for now I want to keep my risk amounts small and I also want to avoid leverage, so I am looking at longer time frames until I understand the process better.

 

[shortlist]

Clearly



Yet as a pure chartist you consider me a punter.

"I would consider making a trde on the basis of a chart alone pure punting."
would you not-----" have to know what a trader was doing in terms of all this before you could correctly accuse him or her of being a punter".

You have no chance of being profitable unless you know why your trading will deliver you positive expectancy.

tech

I have never pretended to be anything other than a newbie. All my posts from the first have been quite open about this. Being a newbie in trading does not mean I am a newbie at everything else - including skills that will prove very useful in trading. One thing I have learnt in life is not to make a judgement before I have all the facts.

What grabbed my attention in your post was that you randomly labelled me as a punter without knowing the first thing about me, that's all. It was the implication that when you do it, it's qualified judgement based on sound technical analysis, and when someone else does it, it's punting. That's all I found odd - because you cannot possibly know what technical or generic input I will put into my trades when I am ready to start.

 

[shortlist]

Just for some semantic tickling of the senses: even though a business may have a positive expectancy, that positive expectancy is useless if there are no customers. So demand is an issue and something that is taken a punt on when opening up a business or taking over an existing business. Demand is never constant and tied to economic conditions.

But good points above.

Some good points in here too. It's probably wrong to see positive expectancy as an independent variable for the reasons you point out. Factors such as consistency/reliability, overheads, profit/loss ratio are all dependent on other external variables which are often induced by matters out of our control.

And yes, tech, I find pure chartism slightly unsettling and will in time hope to demonstrate this as I gather more information. In fact I would suggest that pure chartism is impossible and that anyone claiming to operate by this method is making use of other sources such as basic fundamental information even if it is subconscious.

But don't think I am ridiculing TA (I know others do). In the end, last week I paper traded 10 stocks, 5 of which were selected through my basic understanding of TA, and 5 of which were selected randomly, and the former sample performed considerably better than the latter. I am running the same trial this week but on different positions.

 

[Nick Radge]

In fact I would suggest that pure chartism is impossible and that anyone claiming to operate by this method is making use of other sources such as basic fundamental information even if it is subconscious.

I'll take as much as you want on this...

 

[shortlist]

I'll take as much as you want on this...

Hi Nick

I'm not making a declaration here, really just starting to learn about it all. From a psychological perspective (I am not a trained psychologist) I wonder if it is possible to know nothing of the world at all when looking at a chart. You have significant general knowledge - the value of a dollar/the role of iron ore/the condition of the Australian economy - when you look at a chart. You cannot erase this information.

Would you disagree?

I add in edit just to clarify that I am not opposed to TA. In fact I am really enjoying learning all about it from this site and books I have started reading. It fascinates me actually and I am wondering where it has been all my life! I'm just thinking that when I look at a chart I am bringing other pre-learnt knowledge into that chart just by looking at it.

 

[lukeaye]

LOL just LOL. I know more profitable T/A then Fundamentalists. Not to say you cant be profitiable from fundamental trading.

How many times have you heard a pure fundamentilist say, the price shouldnt be that low! or that price shouldnt be that high!

You will never see a technical trader in that position.

You will hear many profesional traders say, the technicals lead the fundamentals. If you dont believe me, look at the chart on boeing before 9/11it was in a very aggresive topping phases, somebody was selling the crap out of it, then came the fundamentals, 9/11. fundamentally there was no reason to sell but PURE technicals said otherwise

 

[lukeaye]

Sorry about this crappy chart dont have us stocks available. But as you can see here, the technicals lead on this PURE technicals. Just trying to prove a piont. if anyone has a better chart post away.

 

[shortlist]

LOL just LOL. I know more profitable T/A then Fundamentalists. Not to say you cant be profitiable from fundamental trading.

How many times have you heard a pure fundamentilist say, the price shouldnt be that low! or that price shouldnt be that high!

You will never see a technical trader in that position.

You will hear many profesional traders say, the technicals lead the fundamentals. If you dont believe me, look at the chart on boeing before 9/11it was in a very aggresive topping phases, somebody was selling the crap out of it, then came the fundamentals, 9/11. fundamentally there was no reason to sell but PURE technicals said otherwise

Morning lukeaye

Just to clarify - I am learning TA. I consider it to be the primary system for profitable trading. What I am also saying is we all have prior knowledge which we bring to a chart when we read it.

To tech

Something tech said earlier about swinging the odds in my favour - I've been thinking about that tech. Are you talking about swinging the odds in your favour by purely technical means? The analysis of volume and moving averages, ascending triangles, double bottoms, and strategic technical or percentage stops, etc. In your opinion, are technical methods the only way of swinging the odds?

 

[Timmy]

LOL just LOL. I know more profitable T/A then Fundamentalists.

The people you know may not necessarily be representative of the population of market participants.

How many times have you heard a pure fundamentilist say, the price shouldnt be that low! or that price shouldnt be that high!

You will never see a technical trader in that position.

Stick around & you will hear many TAs bemoaning price moves that 'shouldn't' be happening/'shouldn't' have happened. Especially when the move is/was enough to trigger his or her stop (ps. been there, done that).

You will hear many profesional traders say, the technicals lead the fundamentals.

You will also hear many say that knowledge of good, accurate, fundamental info can be very helpful indeed to profitable trading.

 

[shortlist]

You will also hear many say that knowledge of good, accurate, fundamental info can be very helpful indeed to profitable trading.

For me it's the purist part that concerns me. I am not doubting the efficiency and usefulness of TA in any way. For private traders without access to high level information TA is our way of fighting back and making profitable trades.

I'm just making the case that in my limited knowledge you bring other things to a chart when you read it. You understand broadly what's going on with copper, or you know what's going to happen when Tehran switches to calculating its oil fund value in euros rather than dollars (which happened a couple of days ago). This information must be able to assist any technical analysis you choose to execute? Only a purist could disagree, no?

 

[Timmy]

You have significant general knowledge - the value of a dollar/the role of iron ore/the condition of the Australian economy - when you look at a chart. You cannot erase this information.

Shortlist, there are technical traders who will buy or sell a company, after doing their analysis, without knowing anything more of the company than its three letter code (in the case of the ASX). We all bring prior knowledge and experience to everything we do, but this would have to be an example of acting on technical analysis to the exclusion of all other info, as far as it is possible to do so. Also, check out some of the threads in the FX section where the scalpers/short-termers trade purely on price action for another example.