Do you have to day trade to trade full time?

[prawn_86]

Shortlist,

The market prices all these things in. If it is so 'clear' to you, then it is clear to other people as well. Plus trying to invest long term based on macro indicators means nothing to individual stocks, due to the fact they have other more pressing micro concerns.

If you want to be successful do not confuse economics with the stock market

And once again this thread has gone off track. Any further off topic posts will be removed.

 

[shortlist]

Shortlist,

The market prices all these things in. If it is so 'clear' to you, then it is clear to other people as well. Plus trying to invest long term based on macro indicators means nothing to individual stocks, due to the fact they have other more pressing micro concerns.

If you want to be successful do not confuse economics with the stock market

And once again this thread has gone off track. Any further off topic posts will be removed.

Gday Prawn

If information in the Geraldton Guardian can be used to one's advantage before the ASX gets hold of it, I see no reason why certain other specialist knowledge cannot be used to make decisions long before it has even come to the market's attention. But like I said, this can only really work over the long-term and clearly would be of no use in terms of day trading, which is what this thread is nominally about so I'll move along!

 

[AlterEgo]

An example might be Obama. It was clear to me Obama would be president months before he was even selected as the nominee. From this it is easy to infer likely moves in pharma companies because of his inevitable healthcare overhaul. I'll admit this is long-term stuff and of no use to someone who buys and sells in a few seconds, but I consider it a handy tool in the box.

Thinking about it this is a bad example because it was clear the GOP were exiting stage right for a long time, but I'll think of a few more over lunch.

The only problem with this is that if something is clear to you, no doubt it'd be clear to everyone else too, and therefore should be already priced in to the market. There are thousands of professional market analysts (and market insiders) out there - what makes you think you'll be able to analyze the situation better than they can? To have an edge over these people, you need to know something that they don’t, and it’s very doubtful that you’ll find out some info that they’ve missed. Chances are that they will have heard the news long before you do.

 

[Mr J]

To have an edge over these people, you need to know something that they don’t

No we don't. We may be able to better use that information (such as superior ability to read the market), or maybe we play a completely different game (such as trading a shorter timeframe).

 

[AlterEgo]

No we don't. We may be able to better use that information (such as superior ability to read the market), or maybe we play a completely different game (such as trading a shorter timeframe).

True, but I was referring to having an edge over them in F/A information. With shorter term trading we have an advantage over the big players as we're not moving the large sums of money that they are.

 

[shortlist]

No we don't. We may be able to better use that information (such as superior ability to read the market), or maybe we play a completely different game (such as trading a shorter timeframe).

That would be the key - exploiting the greater volatility in small timeframes. That's one way to get an advantage - trading in, sometimes, a matter of seconds or minutes. For this pure TA should work fine.

AlterEgo - you presume "others" must know more than you or I, and I would suggest this depends very much on their specialisms - you should have more confidence in yourself - you probably know more than a lot of "they" do!

 

[tech/a]

Bloody hell you guys.
You make it look and sound so hard.

Dont do any of the stuff your on about.
Why would you?
Do you REALLY think all thats necessary?

I certainly dont.

 

[prawn_86]

I certainly dont.

Yep, and your way is the only way to make money...

 

[tech/a]

Yep, and your way is the only way to make money...

When you boil down what it is that makes the $$s

IT IS.

Those that trade profitably---consistently do as I do.
Wether they know it or not.

Its NOT the How its the WHY.:kiffer:

 

[prawn_86]

So those that scalp, invest for dividends, use fundamentals etc etc all dont make any money?? Obviously not, because they dont do exactly what you do.

You may know a few things about trading, but sometimes you really need to get over yourself and realise that there are countless methods out there for making money.

 

[tech/a]

So those that scalp, invest for dividends, use fundamentals etc etc all dont make any money?? Obviously not, because they dont do exactly what you do.

Yes they do. If they are consistently profitable.

You may know a few things about trading, but sometimes you really need to get over yourself and realise that there are countless methods out there for making money.

Keep telling you its not the how its the why.

You and countless others need to look at trading differently to the 90% that fail.

There are countless THEORIES on making money but only a few ways to be consistently profitable whether that be trading or ANY other business.

 

[Mr J]

True, but I was referring to having an edge over them in F/A information. With shorter term trading we have an advantage over the big players as we're not moving the large sums of money that they are.

We can still be better at utilising the info. We really go up against institutional traders anyway, not their analysts. At the end of the day, institutions are made up of mere mortals, and I see no reason why a very sharp retail trader couldn't beat them at F/A. Anyway, trading is about the market, not the instrument.

With shorter term trading we have an advantage over the big players as we're not moving the large sums of money that they are.

Size isn't our only advantage, but it doesn't really matter. We're playing a different game, and when we are actually up against institutional traders, who is to say that they are better?

You and countless others need to look at trading differently to the 90% that fail.

It would also help to look at the 10% that succeed.

 

[nunthewiser]

LOL

hasnt this thread taken a funny turn

i would love to discuss that im sitting here actually thinking maybe those that brag the loudest maybe just know how to talk the talk instead of walking the walk , but that would turn this thread into WW3 .... oh yes we all seen the "statements" ... LOL i seen one naked shorts knocked up too ...... anyways ...............

i have a plane to catch , so guess i,ll just have to catch up on the next exciting episode when i find a sober moment

have a great long weekend and go the saints!

p.s this is the internet , full of allsorts of claims and bignoting ........ Trading is a learning journey and personally think ANYONE that tells you they they have nothing left to learn is either
a. full of it
b. not trading
c. got an ego that will not let themselves admit they are full of it

i do understand there may be ramifications to this post , but these are MY thoughts and think they are just as valid as many other thoughts and statements here .

 

[prawn_86]

Nun: I have not traded for a year, and I started with far less than $50k. I'm well aware that I don't have much credibility until I can back up these comments with results. Take my statements with a grain of salt, or see some sense in them if you wish.

What's your point? To suggest that it's hard to make a career out of 10-20k? Sure. 50k? I consider that very adequate. 10-20k can get it done if we don't have to worry about paying bills (i.e. you have plenty saved for expenses, partner paying bills etc).

As for myself, I don't daytrade for a living fulltime, I just daytrade fulltime. I want to make a living, but I need more success before I'm comfortable making that claim.

$500 to Joe if you can show 12 mths trading statement returning an income of $50K + ---any less and thats hardly a career.(Not a one off win but some sort of consistancy.)
Near impossible in my view,I'm sure I'm not the only one who would like to see a 20-50k capital base returning a career!

Showing these quotes you can see why im confused. You havn't traded for a year? Yet your claiming you can 'easily' make >100% consistently

 

[Mr J]

You havn't traded for a year?

No I have not.

Yet your claiming you can 'easily' make >100% consistently

I'm confused to why you're confused, unless you are referring to posts that I don't remember and that you aren't quoting. I can't see in those quotes where I claimed that I could make >100% consistently. I suspect that people skim over my posts and misunderstand them due to my style of writing.

Your impression is actually a blend of two statements I'd made, the first being that a good trader can make >100% p/a and the second being that I suggested trading was easy. The first can be proven mathematically, and the second can't be argued with since it is a subjective statement. Nobody else can say whether or not I find trading easy.

 

[tech/a]

Another quality post Nun.
Lots of opinion and zero input on the topic.
Like 90% of your posts.

J

You've got more ideas than a mattel advertisement.
Rather than postulating why don't you get some real facts before entering discussion?

shortlist.

How do you know your "plan" will or even could be profitable.
What will you have in place that will ensure success?
You need to know WHY.
You think superior knowledge/understanding is WHY--its not.

Prawn
Rather than shooting everyone on the thread how about some input from you?
More over start THINKING about what I'm getting at not thinking like a muppet.

I'm not going to lay it out as step by step guide but those that "Get it" will have found it and those that have got it---understand.
Everytime you work on your plan and you know why the way you design your plan will be successful---you'll cut out the copious rubbish you DONT NEED to know.
Included in that rubbish is the misguided mindset that you need to be in some way better informed or better equiped in economics to succeed.
Have greater ability than a building of analysts.

If a Duck can profit consistently anyone can!

 

[Mr J]

Rather than postulating why don't you get some real facts before entering discussion?

I could say the same to you. We all make statements, and these statements are only opinions. If you have an issue with a specific statement, feel free to question it specifically.

 

[tech/a]

I could say the same to you. We all make statements, and these statements are only opinions. If you have an issue with a specific statement, feel free to question it specifically.

Anyway spent enough time on this circular never ending thread of hypothesis.

I'll leave then with this.

Human beings, who are almost unique in having the ability to learn from the experience of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.

 

[nomore4s]

Mr J,

What do you consider to be a sufficent income?

I find it hard to believe with a small capital base of around $50K anymore then 1% of traders could draw a decent wage that would be able to provide enough to both live on and continue to grow your capital base sufficently.

Even returning 100% on your capital it would be very hard, by the time you take tax, living expenses, business expenses, savings, money put aside for holidays (bearing in mind there will be no income during this period), sick days (there will be times you will be too sick to trade), and there will also be things like childern, mortgages etc, which could throw unexpected things up. Also there is the premium you will need to cover things like needing to constantly pull an income from the markets, how hard it will be to get things like home loans etc and the buffer of taking an unexpected hit.

While 50k a year is an okay wage it is just that nowadays - only an okay wage. You can comfortably live on it but it is very hard to grow a business off of that sort of capital/turnover.

IMO earning 50k off an employer where you don't have the stresses & worry of keeping the business profitable and you have some form of security compared to earning 50k working for yourself in a business like trading where one unforeseen event could wipe out a fair chunk of your capital is poles apart.

I would personally need to be able to earn a minimum of $150k pa to make trading fulltime worth it. And even then I wouldn't really want to rely on it as my sole form of income.

 

[Mr J]

Another quality post Nun.
Lots of opinion and zero input on the topic.
Like 90% of your posts.

It's too bad you feel that way, as Nun's posts always contain a nice, simple point that most of us have overlooked.

Human beings, who are almost unique in having the ability to learn from the experience of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.

Tech, you may be experienced and have a lot to offer, but you seem to have a problem appreciating views other than your own.

What do you consider to be a sufficent income?

For basic living, 25k. For comfortable living, 40k would be sufficient. I plan to reinvest most of my profits though, so I would be shooting for a much higher income, even though I don't need it.

I find it hard to believe with a small capital base of around $50K anymore then 1% of traders could draw a decent wage that would be able to provide enough to both live on and continue to grow your capital base sufficently.

It may be a struggle, it may not. Someone with 20k of expenses (the amount of my basic needs) is going to fare much better than someone with a family and mortgage (who probably shouldn't be attempting it with just 50k).

Even returning 100% on your capital it would be very hard

It may be for many, I do not know. I do know that a good trader can earn far in excess of 100% a year before expenses are considered. Expenses are a problem, so obviously it helps to have another income or support. I didn't say most could do it, just that it was doable.

I would personally need to be able to earn a minimum of $150k pa to make trading fulltime worth it. And even then I wouldn't really want to rely on it as my sole form of income.

We all differ.