Do you expect a market correction soon?

[CanOz]

I can't post a chart of the XMJ, but if i could you would see its sitting on support at the moment,support from an old double top formed back in August and September at the 10400 level. It will be interesting if it can bounce off this.

Cheers,

 

[professor_frink]

US futures are down a bit already (23 pts DOW)

Doesn't mean a hell of a lot this early, but then again, it could.

I've been wondering who leads who during the asian day session, still no real idea on that one. It wasn't just us, nikkei futs were off over 2% today as well.

Probably one of those chicken/egg kind of questions

Or maybe another May/June style train wreck coming

 

[wayneL]

Or maybe another May/June style train wreck coming

Well...

The markets today certainly reminded me of Harry Chapin's "30,000 pounds of Bananas" LOL (sorry no Youtube 2020 )

It was just after dark when the truck started down
the hill that leads into Scranton Pennsylvania.
Carrying thirty thousand pounds of bananas.
Carrying thirty thousand pounds (hit it Big John) of bananas.

He was a young driver,
just out on his second job.
And he was carrying the next day's pasty fruits
for everyone in that coal-scarred city
where children play without despair
in backyard slag-piles and folks manage to eat each day
about thirty thousand pounds of bananas.
Yes, just about thirty thousand pounds (scream it again, John) .

He passed a sign that he should have seen,
saying "shift to low gear, a fifty dollar fine my friend."
He was thinking perhaps about the warm-breathed woman
who was waiting at the journey's end.
He started down the two mile drop,
the curving road that wound from the top of the hill.
He was pushing on through the shortening miles that ran down to the depot.
Just a few more miles to go,
then he'd go home and have her ease his long, cramped day away.
and the smell of thirty thousand pounds of bananas.
Yes the smell of thirty thousand pounds of bananas.

He was picking speed as the city spread its twinkling lights below him.
But he paid no heed as the shivering thoughts of the nights
delights went through him.
His foot nudged the brakes to slow him down.
But the pedal floored easy without a sound.
He said "Christ!"
It was funny how he had named the only man who could save him now.
He was trapped inside a dead-end hellslide,
riding on his fear-hunched back
was every one of those yellow green
I'm telling you thirty thousand pounds of bananas.
Yes, there were thirty thousand pounds of bananas.

He barely made the sweeping curve that led into the steepest grade.
And he missed the thankful passing bus at ninety miles an hour.
And he said "God, make it a dream!"
as he rode his last ride down.
And he said "God, make it a dream!"
as he rode his last ride down.
And he sideswiped nineteen neat parked cars,
clipped off thirteen telephone poles,
hit two houses, bruised eight trees,
and Blue-Crossed seven people.
it was then he lost his head,
not to mention an arm or two before he stopped.
And he slid for four hundred yards
along the hill that leads into Scranton, Pennsylvania.
All those thirty thousand pounds of bananas.

You know the man who told me about it on the bus,
as it went up the hill out of Scranton, Pennsylvania,
he shrugged his shoulders, he shook his head,
and he said (and this is exactly what he said)
"Boy that sure must've been something.
Just imagine thirty thousand pounds of bananas.
Yes, there were thirty thousand pounds of mashed bananas.
Of bananas. Just bananas. Thirty thousand pounds.
of Bananas. not no driver now. Just bananas!"

 

[nizar]

What are every1s thoughts of the correction if it happens?

Will it be like:

1/ October 2005 where we had 3 downweeks of about 300-400pts and then up and away again. In mid-november we were in new highs.
2/ May 2006 style which was not a sharp correction but almost rather the beginning of a 4 month bearmarket.

Id personally like to see number 1.

 

[MichaelD]

What are every1s thoughts of the correction if it happens?

A gentle philosophical question to ponder on - why do you (or anyone else for that matter) need to ask this question?

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Michael,

In answer to your question, To profit from it of course,

IMO the stock market is merely one of the most liquid wealth transfer systems available, ponder this, the other day I tried to explain to my 13 year old sister what stock markets are all about and stock speculation etc etc,

After a lengthy explanation she looked at me puzzled and said, "so its kinda like trading/buying basketball cards" not exactly, but kinda I said,

When you melt it all down we're all trying to buy something and sell it on to someone else for more (obviously a wee bit more complicated as we must consider dividends, tax, costs etc)



Anyway back on topic,

Niz I reckon the May correction was severe and sudden, look how much most Resource Stocks lost in the first few days, its was carnage,

I think/hope we get a option 1 too, but the signals coming out of the US hint at somethign a wee bit more severe


http://www.aireview.com.au/index.php?act=view&catid=8&id=4701

http://www.aireview.com.au/index.php?act=view&catid=8&id=4702

 

[Julia]

Wayne,

I haven't quoted the Bananas "song", but thanks, it's one of my favourites. Loses quite a lot in just the quoted words in comparison to the accelerating and finally frenzied pace of the recording. Great fun.

Julia

 

[MichaelD]

Michael,

In answer to your question, To profit from it of course

Unfortunately, that's not how you make money from the markets, and neither is it the reason for people wanting to "know" what the stock market will do tomorrow or what the next correction will be like or when the next crash is coming.

People want to know what other people think the stockmarket will do because;

1. They can't handle the truth of the fact that markets are essentially unpredictable.
2. They can't handle the truth of the fact that you do not need to form an opinion of when the market will turn or which way the market will go to be profitable - you merely need to follow what it does.
3. They need external confirmation of their own biases in order to continue to apply these biases to the market.

 

[nizar]

A gentle philosophical question to ponder on - why do you (or anyone else for that matter) need to ask this question?

I dont.

What the market will do tomorrow or the next week or month doesnt matter to me. Its just for interests sake. Its like when i ask someone how their day has been. Most of the time, i couldnt give a fu#@, its just to make conversation.

As to your 3 points, I dont invest according to others peoples opinion. I only make money when the sp of my stocks go up. Its much harder than people think to try and predict which factors will move the shareprice. So dont try to predict it, just react to it, and be prepared for all possible scenarios.

Whether or not there is or will be a correction doesnt matter to me. If there are stocks going up, there is opportunity (for the time being i only go long). If the stocks i hold go down, then i exit the position as per my strategy. I they go up, then i do whatever my plan tells me to do.

Seriously i only held paladin for today (bought on friday) and for most of the session i didnt even know what the market was doing, all that matters to me are the movements of my stock.

As for YT not being profitable, this man, for all we know, could probably buy you many times over. Such arrogance.

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

(Nizar Quote)
Seriously i only held paladin for today (bought on friday) and for most of the session i didnt even know what the market was doing, all that matters to me are the movements of my stock.


Nice one Nizar, 10 percent turnaround in a couple of days, MRE did it from open to mid arvo on Friday, PDN was just a bit slow .

 

[nizar]

Wow, i dont think iv ever seen XJO up by 50pts when BHP is down.
Interesting.

 

[2020hindsight]

Dont know about anyone else, but I would give a different answer to this poll every day - based mainly on what happened in the recent day or two - and to my portfolio and noone elses lol. ....
I must learn to think further ahead
(PS the bloke down the road still refuses to go near the ASX whilst it's at these highs - I think he remembers "the last time" - and starts mumbling under his breath - something about "those who don't learn from history are bound to repeat it")

 

[kgee]

Quick answer yes, when-now

 

[drillinto]

"Any indigestion should be viewed as a buying opportunity"
Brian Wesbury, Chief Economist, First Trust Advisors(USA)

http://www.ftportfolios.com/Common/research/economicresearch-343.pdf

 

[UMike]

It's all looking a bit shaky overseas.

DOW down over 3% for the week.
DAX down 1.5% today.
Not even touching the Chinese .....

Ozzie mtk down about 1% for the week till today. ray:

 

[Fool]

fundamentals don't change.

if you have stock in a company that you beleive is undervalued.... despite a market correction, the SP ----WILL---- go up.

companies that are over valued, well you should have sold already and waited for them to correct.

I am not going to sell anything that I currently hold, it will bounce back within a week like it did in Feburary.

Today is the perfect opportunity to buy stock cheap - I will be looking for bargains

 

[wayneL]

fundamentals don't change.

if you have stock in a company that you beleive is undervalued.... despite a market correction, the SP ----WILL---- go up.

Now, where have I heard that before?

 

[Fool]

Now, where have I heard that before?

I don't know, where have you read it before?

 

[wayneL]

I don't know, where have you read it before?

Uhhhmmmmm... let's see, it must have been sometime before reality was suspended.

 

[CanOz]

Out of the dozen or so i hold now, two hit stops yesterday, and i suspect another with hit today....there are fewer showing up on my nightly scans though.

Should be looking for more shorts....where's that thread???

Cheers,