DMM - DMC Mining

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Hmmm my pics didn't come up


I've found some very interesting info on DMM today such as what do DMM SDL and AGO have in common?????

Answer = They all have the Insto PASSPORT CAPITAL http://www.passportcapital.com/ as a backer, go to the web page and you will see Passport is a $4Billion + Fund which no doubt has a very large research division

So ask yourself why would a large Multi Billion Dollar fund who has obviously spotted value in SDL and AGO waste its time with DMM?

Well it obviously see's something there of great value, SDL is a $500m mkt cap company, AGO now is over $1BILLION and DMM? ? ? $40m

I'm going to check to see what other Iron ore plays Passport has a stake in, so far they seem like advance $500m - $1Billion Mkt Cap companies which bodes well for what they must think of DMM

 

[adobee]

Relax with posting anymore great information until I start buying on Monday morning !!!!! This does look to good to be true .. as such I cant take the chance of missing out..

Hmmm my pics didn't come up


I've found some very interesting info on DMM today such as what do DMM SDL and AGO have in common?????

Answer = They all have the Insto PASSPORT CAPITAL http://www.passportcapital.com/ as a backer, go to the web page and you will see Passport is a $4Billion + Fund which no doubt has a very large research division

So ask yourself why would a large Multi Billion Dollar fund who has obviously spotted value in SDL and AGO waste its time with DMM?

Well it obviously see's something there of great value, SDL is a $500m mkt cap company, AGO now is over $1BILLION and DMM? ? ? $40m

I'm going to check to see what other Iron ore plays Passport has a stake in, so far they seem like advance $500m - $1Billion Mkt Cap companies which bodes well for what they must think of DMM

 

[Gekko]

Hmmm my pics didn't come up


I've found some very interesting info on DMM today such as what do DMM SDL and AGO have in common?????

Answer = They all have the Insto PASSPORT CAPITAL http://www.passportcapital.com/ as a backer, go to the web page and you will see Passport is a $4Billion + Fund which no doubt has a very large research division

So ask yourself why would a large Multi Billion Dollar fund who has obviously spotted value in SDL and AGO waste its time with DMM?

Well it obviously see's something there of great value, SDL is a $500m mkt cap company, AGO now is over $1BILLION and DMM? ? ? $40m

I'm going to check to see what other Iron ore plays Passport has a stake in, so far they seem like advance $500m - $1Billion Mkt Cap companies which bodes well for what they must think of DMM

yt, their dollar value positions in SDL and AGO i presume were much larger then for their current dmm position so can we expect further buying? Do you know if their active investors who get involved with management or are they just passive and happy to just enjoy the ride?

 

[grace]

As Pilbara jorc DSO currently attracts a $4 tonne sale value in the ground, I would discount 50% for sovereign risk in Africa (and remember freight differentials are coming).

Can we look at BRM in the Pilbara (Brockman Resources)
MC = $250 mill

1.1 billion tonne iron ore (jorc resource)

of that 50 mill tonne DSO x $4 = $200 mill

505 mill tonne mag x $0.10 = $50 mill (mag upgradable with simple benefication to 57.5 - 59.5%) I won't count the lower grade mag to be very fair to DMM, nor extra drilling to firm up a bigger resource, I'm trying to be very fair).

Total MC = $250 mill with BHP rail line running straight through it and FMG rail30 kms away (don't have rail agreement yet but working on it with ex BHP iron ore chief running Brockman).

As I said, would personally discount 50% for Africa and freight differential.

DMM Lets use their targetshey!

DSO Target 120 mt x $2.00 = $240 mill
mag Target 775 mt x $0.05 = $39 mill

Full valuation once all drilling done assuming meets targets
$279 million ie a share price of $3.72 (80% of $4.65 (will be less if rework dilution due to purchase which I'll again sway in favour of DMM). Shares 60 mill

Using their jorc
DSO 33 million tonne x $2 = $66 million = $1.10 x 80% = $0.88(shares 60 mill)

So per my valuations (I don't think it is fit to compare to SDL which, in my opinion is way overvalued as per my previous posts)

I get a current price target of 88c for the jorc

Overall price target if targets of iron ore prove up $4.65 x 80% = $3.72

Just my two cents worth, and now I'm going to be absolutely battered on this thread for putting in a lower valuation. Please don't beat me up too badly......Africa is Africa in my opinion and worthy of discount.

 

[desolator]

Relax with posting anymore great information until I start buying on Monday morning !!!!! This does look to good to be true .. as such I cant take the chance of missing out..

Hear hear to that, I think im gonna have to top up on this one now! Monday morning is going to be crazy I reacon..should be interesting! Good luck to every1!

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Grace you are entitled to your opinion

Currently you don't see much value in DMM so please don't buy, I'm not forcing you to, lol

I do see alot of value in DMM and so have been buying, bought a heap more 80c then 70c then 60c, so I am putting my money where my mouth is

I notice your using BRM as a peer comparison, the interesting thing is if you research BRM far back enough, ie when it was YML you'll see that at 16c I was very very bullish and many were not, I don't remember seeing you around there

As I have said lets wait and see what time brings

I think you are being ridiculously conservative with your valuations, you probably think I'm being ridiculously optimistic, the problem is though getting stuff like ACS IRC GCR and now MXR right only sorta instills my faith that I kinda should trust my judgement

Anyway I'll be around in a few months, so we can see who was right and who was wrong,

My call is DMM will hit $1.50/$2 within 3months thats my call

So whats yours Grace?? stay at current levels????


p.s. I'm glad Passport agrees with me they bought at 95c - $1+ and that was well before a JORC or any of these confirmations

 

[lampard]

In any case grace, you could have (should have perhaps) bought 2-3 days ago when the sp was 60c. Then your (in my opinion overly conservative) valuation would mean roughly a 50% gain.

I'd be very happy with that thanks.

 

[alankew]

Passport bought on market and were happy to pay up big for their stake,page 4 of the ann gives all the details but looks like they paid on average 90c plus.Also the company that they have appointed to do the scoping study is GRD Minproc and from the appropriate ann"GRD Minproc has extensive African experience and current work includes projects
in the Democratic Republic of Congo, South Africa, Mali and Zambia. The company
has a proven track record in delivering projects in logistically challenging locations
across Africa and around the world."
Was told that this company also did the same sort of work for SDL but cant find any anns on it.Still like LML:

 

[Gekko]

DSO Target 120 mt x $2.00 = $240 mill
mag Target 775 mt x $0.05 = $39 mill

Full valuation once all drilling done assuming meets targets
$279 million ie a share price of $3.72 (80% of $4.65 (will be less if rework dilution due to purchase which I'll again sway in favour of DMM). Shares 60 mill

Using their jorc
DSO 33 million tonne x $2 = $66 million = $1.10 x 80% = $0.88(shares 60 mill)

So per my valuations (I don't think it is fit to compare to SDL which, in my opinion is way overvalued as per my previous posts)

I get a current price target of 88c for the jorc

Overall price target if targets of iron ore prove up $4.65 x 80% = $3.72

Just my two cents worth, and now I'm going to be absolutely battered on this thread for putting in a lower valuation. Please don't beat me up too badly......Africa is Africa in my opinion and worthy of discount.

Grace, you get 88cents for the 33mt JORC just announced.

What about the other 100mt of haemitite and the 750mt of magnetite? At 88cents you give no value? Nothing at all?

Sure, its not JORC, but its still worth plenty. Lets use your model on the remaining 100mt of haemitite but only discount it by 75% to account for it not been JORC.

100mt x $2 x 0.25 (75% discount) = $50mn.

$50mn/60mn shares = another 90cents per share (roughly)

88cents (your figure based on 33mt jorc) + 90cents (75% discount on excess 100mt estimate) = $1.78 for the haemitite only

Even at $1.78 no is given to the magnetite target and id also dispute you 5c per tonne value. 1 tonne of magentite is worth a lot more then 1/40th of a tonne of haemitite.


My two bob but ill leave the poper analysis to others.

 

[Gekko]

A few typo's in that one. When i said, "Lets use your model on the remaining 100mt of haemitite but only discount it by 75%", i was obviously saying, lets use your model but discount it by a further 75% to be conservative.

Your $4 per tonne figure has been cut to $2 and then by a further 75% for the remaining 100mt to $0.50 per tonne.

The magnetite also needs to be valued. It was late at night, i was tired

I hope its clear?

 

[grace]

Gekko, valuation of jorc at present 88cents.

Based on proving up targets $3.72

I've chosen to discount Africa by 50% to oz iron ore due to sovereign risk and freight differential.

Young Trader, all I ask of you is to be consistent with your figures. One minute you are on the Sundance thread saying how rediculously overvalued it is.....next minute, you are using this same "overvalued" thought to give a valuation to DMM.

I think it is very important that you be consistent with the content that you post.

Cheers Grace

PS If they can get 3 million tonne of iron ore on that track per year, you'll have a very big apology from me!

Here is YT's post on Sundance just so you all don't think I'm crazy...

Young Trader on Sundance thread on 17th April 2008

Oh wow, yep certainly right 1.8Billion Shares @ 26c = $500m crazy!!!!!!!!!!!

I thought that they did some share consolidation back from when they were a 2c stock????????


Anyway I don't hold any, wouldn't even think of buying as this is not my sort of share, but had never bothered to look at the size of the project before, lots of Mag, but why bother with Mag in Africa, we have plenty in Aus, just ask good old Clive Palmer to give you some

 

[Miner]

Gekko, valuation of jorc at present 88cents.

Based on proving up targets $3.72

I've chosen to discount Africa by 50% to oz iron ore due to sovereign risk and freight differential.

Young Trader, all I ask of you is to be consistent with your figures. One minute you are on the Sundance thread saying how rediculously overvalued it is.....next minute, you are using this same "overvalued" thought to give a valuation to DMM.

I think it is very important that you be consistent with the content that you post.

Cheers Grace

PS If they can get 3 million tonne of iron ore on that track per year, you'll have a very big apology from me!

Here is YT's post on Sundance just so you all don't think I'm crazy...

Gees Grace

I am surprised to see your vigilant eyes on the conflicting (?) postings from our most respected expert YT. I am sure he has the reasons to use a conflicting valuation and would be interested to see YT's comment on your posting. I also saw the same post in SDL (where I have burnt substantial investment ) and struggling to book my loss emotionally. However I did not have the courage to contradict YT. He has some consistent and excellent posting in DMM, GCR and likewise and with my shallow knowledge did not have the same courage like you have.

ANy way my humble request to YT to please come out with some clarification on SDL

Regards

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Grace you are being very sneaky here, you've purposely mis-quoted me

Do have an issue with me or something?

If your going to cut and paste posts why not read the whole SDL thread hmmmm???

I did 3 posts on SDL and they appear below in the order I did them

The first was

Was just reading SDL's ann today,

Those are some impressive estimates,

Latest geological modelling (non JORC-Code compliant) of the Mbarga Deposit has outlined the potential for 1.0 – 1.2 billion tonnes itabirite-style mineralisation at an average grade of approximately 39% Fe. This is based on all assay data received from the areas drilled to date

The geological modelling has also updated the potential Direct Shipping Ore (DSO) tonnage from the Mbarga Deposit. Latest estimates range from 100 to 140 million tonnes hematite at an average grade of approximately 60% Fe, 0.09% P and 3.4% Al2O3.

Exploration Target of 2.0-2.5 billion tonnes of itabirite-style mineralisation.

So they are currently targeting 1Bt's-1.2Bt's of Mag @ 39% Fe
+ 100 -140Mt's@60%Fe DSO Heamatite
and have an end target of 2-2.5Billion Tonnes of Mag

Those are some very large numbers

Then somebody advised me of the amount of shares on issue and I also realised the huge growth it had experienced

Oh wow, yep certainly right 1.8Billion Shares @ 26c = $500m crazy!!!!!!!!!!!

I thought that they did some share consolidation back from when they were a 2c stock????????


Anyway I don't hold any, wouldn't even think of buying as this is not my sort of share, but had never bothered to look at the size of the project before, lots of Mag, but why bother with Mag in Africa, we have plenty in Aus, just ask good old Clive Palmer to give you some

Finally my LAST post a few days later was after I sat down and worked everything out and I had this to say

Hi guys,

Its always been on my mind whether SDL was overvalued, undervalued or fairly priced.

I do not hold any but thought I'd run some numbers on it

Interesting read the SDL presentation,

2billion shares fully diluted @ 25c = $500m mkt cap (ironically the same as former merger partner GBG)

Cash = $60m VERY WELL FUNDED

Top 20 hold 55%

Project = Mbalam
1,100 Mt - 1,200 Mt @ 39% Fe Target/Historical Resource
100 Mt - 140 Mt @ 60% Fe Target/Historical Resource

They're aiming for production of 35.0 Mtpa

Very low waste to ore ratio = very positive as they have to move alot less dirt

However here is the big negative for me CAP EX = $3.3Billion


Now if/once SDL get a JORC up the following EV's would apply, $10/t would apply to the Haematite and $1/t to the Mag

EV
1,100 Mt - 1,200 Mt @ 39% Fe @ $1/t = $430m - $470m
100 Mt - 140 Mt @ 60% Fe = $600m - $840m

So I get an EV of $1Billion - $1.3Billion BUT THIS IS ONLY ONCE THEY GET A JORC

So clearly if they did get all the historical resources JORC'd (very likely imo) it would appear cheap on an EV basis however the CAP EX is a huge deterrent,

Given that the current mkt cap is about half the prospective EV I probably don't see enough value in SDL especially given the CAP EX however it doesn't look expensive either

I'd probably say fair value atm although high risk
These are just my silly views guys DYOR

So do you see that Grace or are you blind????

Clearly you saw that but chose to ignore it,

I'm not sure what your issue is

I'll stand by that, based on what I have seen with SDL it APPEARS to be fari value with a $500m Mkt Cap BUT HIGH RISK


DMM with a comparable project in a comparable country location may also be fair value if/when it reaches $500m but at $40m it is cheap



So Grace stop mis-quoting me


And you still haven't answered my question whats your call??

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

I just took another look at your post and looked at the SDL thread,

You clearly must have some sort of an issue against me,

My last post where I clearly stated SDL looks "fair value atm although high risk" is the second last post in the thread, you would have to be blind not too have seen it


Also the bit you've chosen to highlight and bold out of my post means exactly what it does

AT $500M Mkt Cap SDL isn't my kinda stock

IF DMM where $500m it wouldn't be my kind of stock

But heres the point so pay attention Grace DMM is less than 1/10th that, so thats why its MY KINDA STOCK

Anyone else here think that I was purposely mis-quoted?? please read Grace's post and lok at the bit thats been selectively quoted and bolded, then look at my posts in SDL and tell me if I'm reading into it too much

 

[ans25]

I know who is going to be laughing to the bank in x months, so lets just relax for the time being!

Next week should be important I think

 

[kevinecom]

I just took another look at your post and looked at the SDL thread,

You clearly must have some sort of an issue against me,

My last post where I clearly stated SDL looks "fair value atm although high risk" is the second last post in the thread, you would have to be blind not too have seen it


Also the bit you've chosen to highlight and bold out of my post means exactly what it does

AT $500M Mkt Cap SDL isn't my kinda stock

IF DMM where $500m it wouldn't be my kind of stock

But heres the point so pay attention Grace DMM is less than 1/10th that, so thats why its MY KINDA STOCK

Anyone else here think that I was purposely mis-quoted?? please read Grace's post and lok at the bit thats been selectively quoted and bolded, then look at my posts in SDL and tell me if I'm reading into it too much

YT,
U got my respect for sure and other ASF members, as ur research helps lot of members make good $$$$ profit.

 

[grace]

Hi YT,

On 17/4/08 you posted that Sundance's valn was crazy.

On 5/5/08 you posted to say Sundance's valn was fair.

On 5/5/08 you started posting on DMM, and now use Sundance's value as a basis for comparison.

All I ask of you is to be consistent with your posting.

Thanks
Grace

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

No Grace I am being cosistant with my posts

You on the other hand are trying to mis-quote me

on the 16/4/08 I first posted on SDL (first post every) saying I was very impressed with the deposit and the estimates

Was just reading SDL's ann today,

Those are some impressive estimates,

Latest geological modelling (non JORC-Code compliant) of the Mbarga Deposit has outlined the potential for 1.0 – 1.2 billion tonnes itabirite-style mineralisation at an average grade of approximately 39% Fe. This is based on all assay data received from the areas drilled to date

The geological modelling has also updated the potential Direct Shipping Ore (DSO) tonnage from the Mbarga Deposit. Latest estimates range from 100 to 140 million tonnes hematite at an average grade of approximately 60% Fe, 0.09% P and 3.4% Al2O3.

Exploration Target of 2.0-2.5 billion tonnes of itabirite-style mineralisation.

So they are currently targeting 1Bt's-1.2Bt's of Mag @ 39% Fe
+ 100 -140Mt's@60%Fe DSO Heamatite
and have an end target of 2-2.5Billion Tonnes of Mag

Those are some very large numbers

Then Kransky advised me about the number of shares on issue, I never knew there was that many so I posted this

Oh wow, yep certainly right 1.8Billion Shares @ 26c = $500m crazy!!!!!!!!!!!

I thought that they did some share consolidation back from when they were a 2c stock????????


Anyway I don't hold any, wouldn't even think of buying as this is not my sort of share, but had never bothered to look at the size of the project before, lots of Mag, but why bother with Mag in Africa, we have plenty in Aus, just ask good old Clive Palmer to give you some

Where did I say the value was crazy????? where??? All I said was $500m crazy!!!!!! I never meant it to be omg thats a crazy mkt cap, did I say that? No I just never knew it was so large, in my head I thought there was a share consolidation (see the next line) but there never was and thus I was blown away with the fact that they have 2BILLION shares on issue, that is CRAZY!!!!!



If DMM commanded the same mkt cap as SDL (given there projects are somewhat comparable it would be an $8.30 stock ie $500m Mkt Cap, do you see me saying DMM worth $8.30????? No I am saying $1.50/$2

So yes I am being consistant when I say that at 60c/70c DMM is dirt Cheap

So All I'd ask is

1. Don't mis-quote me to try and make me look bad

2. Stop dancing around it and tell us all what is your prediction for DMM????

 

[grace]

Hi again YT,

Yes, I interpreted that "crazy" meant overvalued, so thus my posts. Looks like I was not the only one that read it that way. Guess that argument is over then. I'm sorry for interpreting wrongly.

I have done a valuation for DMM against BRM that I hold (I will recheck my figures as it could have errors, not saying it doesn't, and always happy to be corrected). I hold firm that SDL is overvalued compared to a number of oz iron ore stocks, thus why I have never touched it.

I have put my own personal value on DMM. It conflicts with yours, but 100 people will have 100 different valuations.

All members have the freedom to offer opinions, and I feel mine is just as worthy as yours. I may not have the following you have (nor do I want it), but I always try to post as fair as I can.

Good luck with your holding.
Cheers Grace

 

[goldmandane]

Look guys,

I dont see what you are arguing about. To me YT said SDL is overvalued when compared to DMC and DMC therefore looks good in comparison. It is crazy to him that too comparable companies (maybe comparable only in his mind, I dont know I havent looked at DMC properly yet, but nevertheless), can have such a massive difference in market cap, which is fair enough to say.