Dividend, Share Price: Is there a connection?

[Kipp]

Re: Dividend, Share Price. Is there a connection?

Here's an easy question for you rozy, when the AFR quotes P/E ratios, what figures are they using for their EPS? Is it as of June 30 Fin report, the most up-to-date QTRly report, or half-yearly? I suspect half-yearly but I'm not sure.

 

[rozella]

Re: Dividend, Share Price. Is there a connection?

G'day Kipp,

Not so easy as I have never looked at those figures in the AFR...but, I just looked & compared a few stocks from different sources & they all come up with the same answers

AOT
Issuer Name AUSTRALIAN GAS LIGHT COMPANY (THE)
Description ORDINARY FULLY PAID
Industry Group Multi-Utilities - 55103010 Shares on Issue 456,592,018
Price (previous close in cents) 1919 Market Cap ($) 8,739,171,225

Last Annual Report Data and Ratios
Earnings (cents per share) 53.2 Price To Earnings 36.07
Dividends (cents per share) 63 Yield (%) 3.28

AFR & TRADINGROOM
AUSTRALIAN GAS LIGHT COMPANY (THE)
AGL
ORDINARY FULLY PAID
Quote time: 03 Mar 2006 19:03
$19.1900


52 Wk High 19.7000 52 Wk Low 13.3600 EPS 0.53

Mkt Cap 8,762,000,825 P/E Ratio 36.07 Earn Yield 2.8

So all 3 sources are the same using the latest Annual Report Data.

 

[bullmarket]

Re: Dividend, Share Price. Is there a connection?

hi kipp, rozella

Those EPS and PER numbers for AGL look a little dodgy to me.

It looks to me they might have just used half yearly EPS numbers.

Commsec numbers are below:

2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 84.6 92.6 99.3 101.6
DPS 63.0 66.1 75.9 75.9

Anyway, I prefer to calculate PER on 12 month EPS forcast numbers, since markets are usually forward looking.

If interested, I uploaded a spreadsheet in the Trading Strategies/Sytems forum which calculates company prospective PER's and some of the major indices prospective PER's as well.

Feel free to download it, play with it, hack it, butcher it or whatever you like with it if it is of any help. Instructions on how to bulk upload EPS, Price data etc into the spreadsheet and my data sources are in my posts in the above thread.

cheers

bullmarket

 

[rozella]

Re: Dividend, Share Price. Is there a connection?

G'day bullmarket,

There is quite a difference in those figures.

I notice on the Comsec site their definition is:

Price/Earnings (P/E) Ratio

The current price divided by the average of the last actual earnings per share figure and the projected EPS figure for the next year. The two figures are weighted based on the elapsed time between each period.

We use both forecast and historical EPS to give a more balanced P/E ratio than using either one alone.

Just as an aside, I can't remember the last time I took notice of P/E ratios, as to my way of trading they don't matter two hoots......as far as I am concerned the only important indicator is the price & which way it is travelling.....it is much easier....but that is me, long term investors obviously look from another angle.

 

[bullmarket]

Re: Dividend, Share Price. Is there a connection?

no problem rozella

I got the impression that kipp was more interested in PER's from his/her post.

I was just pointing out that the 53cps EPS for AGL looks like a half yearly figure when compared to the commsec numbers and hence the high ~36 PER.

I mainly use index PER's to get a ball-park feel for whether the market is at fair, under or over value based on 12 month EPS forcasts. I also use PER in my fundamentals/valuation spreadsheet and since like you imply that various sources use different EPS's to calculate PER I decided to set up my own spreadsheet to calculate company and index PER's according to my personally preferred method.

Have a good remainder of the weekend

cheers

bullmarket

 

[rozella]

Re: Dividend, Share Price. Is there a connection?

No worries bullmarket,

I mainly use index PER's to get a ball-park feel for whether the market is at fair, under or over value based on 12 month EPS forcasts. I also use PER in my fundamentals/valuation spreadsheet and since like you imply that various sources use different EPS's to calculate PER I decided to set up my own spreadsheet to calculate company and index PER's according to my personally preferred method.

I agree with you.....the important point is that these figures should all be calculated with the same formula, so we are comparing apples with apples, as you are with your own spreadsheet. If traders/investors are serious, then they will have there own datum points for comparisons.

 

[rozella]

Re: Dividend, Share Price. Is there a connection?

Sold BSL today @ 687.0
Bought 27th February on the close @ 687.0 with a margin of 70%
Investment 206.10/share
Exdiv 28th February, dividend 20.0/share fully franked 8.57/share
Gross profit 20.0/share = 9.7% return on investment. Fc not incl. 7 days

 

[michael_selway]

Re: Dividend, Share Price. Is there a connection?

Sold BSL today @ 687.0
Bought 27th February on the close @ 687.0 with a margin of 70%
Investment 206.10/share
Exdiv 28th February, dividend 20.0/share fully franked 8.57/share
Gross profit 20.0/share = 9.7% return on investment. Fc not incl. 7 days

Hi did/are u goign to buy MCC?

thx

MS

 

[rozella]

Re: Dividend, Share Price. Is there a connection?

G'day MS,

Hi did/are u goign to buy MCC?

Probably not.....it looks good & fits my requirements, but the best LVR I can get is only 60%, so there are others that look more attractive for me overall.

 

[rozella]

Re: Dividend, Share Price. Is there a connection?

Re-entered HIL today on the close @ 507.0 with a margin of 65%
Investment 177.45/share
Exdiv date 7th March, dividend 13.0/share fully franked 5.57/share

 

[rozella]

Re: Dividend, Share Price. Is there a connection?

Sold IPG today @ 211.0
Bought 19th December @ 209.9 with a margin of 70%
Investment 62.97/unit
Exdist date 22nd December, distribution 8.5/unit zero franked
Gross profit 9.6/unit = 15.24% return on investment. 78 days

 

[rozella]

Re: Dividend, Share Price. Is there a connection?

Bought another parcel of UTB today on the close @ 1362.0 with a margin of 70%
Investment 408.6/share
Exdiv 20th March, dividend 29.0/share, fully franked 12.43/share

 

[rozella]

Re: Dividend, Share Price. Is there a connection?

Sold UTB today @ 1400.0
Bought yesterday 7th March on the close @ 1362.0 with a margin of 70%
Investment 408.6/share
Exdiv 20th March, dividend 29.0/share, fully franked 12.43/share
Gross profit 38.0/share = 9.3% return on investment. 1 day

 

[rozella]

Re: Dividend, Share Price. Is there a connection?

Sold my last parcel of UTB today @ 1417.0
Bought 28th February @ 1386.0 with a margin of 70%
Investment 415.80/share
Exdiv date 20th March, dividend 29.0/share fully franked 12.43/share
Gross profit 31.0/share = 7.45% return on investment. 9 days

 

[rozella]

Re: Dividend, Share Price. Is there a connection?

Sold PBG today @ 237.0
Bought 23rd February @ 236.0 with a margin of 70%
Investment 70.8/share
Exdiv date 27th February, dividend 7.5/share fully franked 3.21/share
Gross profit 8.5/share = 12.01% return on investment. 15 days

 

[rozella]

Re: Dividend, Share Price. Is there a connection?

Sold 1 parcel of PMN today @ 557.0
Bought 3rd March on the close @ 556.0 with a margin of 70%
Investment 166.8/share
Exdiv date 6th March, dividend 13.0/share + 5.0/share special = 18.0/share fully franked
Gross profit 19.0/share = 11.39% return on investment. fc excluded. 7 days

 

[rozella]

Re: Dividend, Share Price. Is there a connection?

Sold my last parcel of PMN today @ 562.0
Bought 1st March @ 549.0 with a margin of 70%
Investment 164.7/share
Exdiv date 6th March, dividend 13.0/share + 5.0/share special = 18.0/share fully franked
Gross profit 31.0/share = 18.82% return on investment. fc excluded. 9 days

 

[rozella]

Re: Dividend, Share Price. Is there a connection?

Bought AMP today @ 865.0 with a margin of 75%
Investment 216.25/share
Exdiv date 27th March, dividend 18.0/share 75% franked 5.79/share

 

[rozella]

Re: Dividend, Share Price. Is there a connection?

Sold ENV today on the open @ 119.5
Bought 3rd March on the close @ 115.5 with a margin of 65%
Investment 40.425/share
Exdiv last year was 11th April, divdend 3.8/share zero franked.
Gross profit 4.0/share = 9.9% return on investment. 13 days
I will re-enter again around 115.5 again if the opportunity arises.

 

[rozella]

Re: Dividend, Share Price. Is there a connection?

Bought RCL today @ 228.0 with a margin of 65%
Investment 79.80/share
Exdiv date 20th March, dividend 6.5/share fully franked 2.79/share