This is a mobile optimized page that loads fast, if you want to load the real page, click this text.

Developing a mechanical system from scratch

Jeez, who would have thought, slapped the breakout system onto the Bund and boom! IT works, really well....with slippage and commisions.....Lets see if we can break it with more OOS data, surely....
 
YUP, that broke it....

I didn't optimise it on the intial data series. I merely applied the FDAX strategy to a 2 year period from Jan 2014-2016. This tells me the regime has changed. Can i optimise the first part of that series and see it if holds. In other words, train it on new data, and test it to see if it holds? Otherwise its curve fit.
 

Attachments

  • Bund_30_30 EQ OOS UNOPT.PNG
    70.7 KB · Views: 1
Alright, given the bund has gone through a regime change (end of QE?) we optimised on a couple of recent years worth of data to see if there is a possibility of a "trained" strategy working on OOS data that is more recent....here is the trained result on two years of "recent" data.....lets see what happens when we run it right up to date....
 
Here, as you can see, this strategy is not worth pursuing as it cannot be profitable without heavy optimising.[/ATTACH]
 
Ok, so given that the last strategy was pretty much a fizzer. I want to start from scratch with an idea i had using the regime type filter, an ATR cross filter. I want to start with this because i had decent probabilities using EOD charts on currencies. This might make a good filter. So what i'm thinking is we use an ATR Cross and then an MA Cross as a trend filter. For exmple, if we get the signal, an ATR cross, we'll take a short right away, apply our trailing stops on a smaller time frame (240, 120 or 60m) and then enter again on a pullback.
 
We'll then go to a second data series for the trailing stop and then take new entries based on pullbacks of some kind (mean reversion) followed by some kind of momentum, or range expansion....stay tuned...i'm working so this may take a few days!
 
In regards to the code for my first system, I have found errors in it that mean it tests well, but I don't think it's possible to achieve those results ..... I'll post more soon...just trying to fix it.
 
I still use both, just using TS for intraday. I may try and code some for Amibroker, but only EOD strats
 
For my first paint bar study i've just completed an indicator that uses two normalised ATRs and an RSI to show me where extremes have occured and the market may turn. Enlightful and rewarding experience, i.e. that was fun.
 
I use bar painting alot to visualise what my code is doing during development. A very helpful technique.
 
I love how the Bulls clean out the weak bears on the lower low after the initial extreme so consistently in that shot.
 
My volitility model smells a rat.....Two Index sells and a GC buy
 
This is an old Strategy i got from a book. I applied it to the Dax after a few optimisations. It hadn't done too well until the last 6 months or so when it climbed out of Drawdown. Good to see it performing again...
 
Must explore this From Howard , I have a couple of his books but not the one mentioned here
 
Cookies are required to use this site. You must accept them to continue using the site. Learn more...