Descending Triangle Breakouts - My World

[CanOz]

Can,

Where is the trend line?

Here it is, but its and acsending Triangle...looks so different on Amibroker...Bigcharts has totally different prices from April to May too.

Strange?

Cheers,

 

[Dutchy3]

Hi

Nup does not qualify ... upsidedown

Look at my MOS, CUE, NDO, CMO posts

 

[nizar]

Hi

Nup does not qualify ... upsidedown

Look at my MOS, CUE, NDO, CMO posts

Hi Dutchy.

Is there a specific reason you dont trade ascending triangle breakouts?

(I personally find them very profitable, MPO was textbook since the break at 10.5c.)

Do you think descending triable breakouts to be higher probability trades?

Id be keen to hear your thoughts.

 

[Dutchy3]

Hi Nizar

Yes ... in my experience.

What I'm looking for is patient buyers and exhausted sellers. Let me illustrate by way of example.

The attached CMO chart is a recent example. Buyers sat at 007 for 18 months and let the sellers actually exhaust themselves at points 1, dumping stock.

By the time point 2 arrives, and the volume kicks in, the sellers are buggered. They literally no longer exist and hence the explosive move as NEW HOLDERS of the stock scramble with each other to get what little is left.

With an ascending triangle its actually the reverse. The buyers do all the work running up to overhead resistance while patient sellers smack them down. If a breakout does occur the buyers have to be relatively more abundant to keep the run going ...

As an aside these two patterns do tend to form at different points in the cycle in a stock ... Decending Triangles can form up during Stage I and form lovely bases - returns 100% + are typical. Ascending triangles tend to form when a stock is already in Stage II. The bull run is taking a pause and some sellers just sit and take out the top of the market as it rallies up. When these triangles are successful the triangle tends to be just a pause in an overall run.

In terms of profitable positions I find the entries in Stage I the most rewarding and most predicable (volume cues a major comforting factor)

I can find examples where the opposite is also true ... such is the market.

When I post a predictive chart (NDO, CMO, ABY, WPL, CUE recently examples) each one I posted as the breakout was occuring and each one .... exhausted sellers ... patient buyers. It's in this way I can get so cocky and post for all to see.

Never discount BIG WHITE weeks with heavy volume into NEW AIR either ... and that's another story.

 

[nizar]

Hi Nizar

Yes ... in my experience.

What I'm looking for is patient buyers and exhausted sellers. Let me illustrate by way of example.

The attached CMO chart is a recent example. Buyers sat at 007 for 18 months and let the sellers actually exhaust themselves at points 1, dumping stock.

By the time point 2 arrives, and the volume kicks in, the sellers are buggered. They literally no longer exist and hence the explosive move as NEW HOLDERS of the stock scramble with each other to get what little is left.

With an ascending triangle its actually the reverse. The buyers do all the work running up to overhead resistance while patient sellers smack them down. If a breakout does occur the buyers have to be relatively more abundant to keep the run going ...

As an aside these two patterns do tend to form at different points in the cycle in a stock ... Decending Triangles can form up during Stage I and form lovely bases - returns 100% + are typical. Ascending triangles tend to form when a stock is already in Stage II. The bull run is taking a pause and some sellers just sit and take out the top of the market as it rallies up. When these triangles are successful the triangle tends to be just a pause in an overall run.

In terms of profitable positions I find the entries in Stage I the most rewarding and most predicable (volume cues a major comforting factor)

I can find examples where the opposite is also true ... such is the market.

When I post a predictive chart (NDO, CMO, ABY, WPL, CUE recently examples) each one I posted as the breakout was occuring and each one .... exhausted sellers ... patient buyers. It's in this way I can get so cocky and post for all to see.

Never discount BIG WHITE weeks with heavy volume into NEW AIR either ... and that's another story.

Thanks for that response.

I'd be keen to know where your exit with CMO was, and your exits in general.

Look at the attached for the MPO ascending triangle breakout.

 

[nizar]

By the way i just checked NDO i presume your referring to the late March descending triangle breakout.
Nice one...

 

[nomore4s]

Hey Dutchy,

Does this one conform to your set up? Is there any other criteria you use?
Does it matter that SEK has had a strong run up in the last 2 or so years? ie Well and truly in stage 2

 

[nizar]

Hey Dutchy,

Does this one conform to your set up? Is there any other criteria you use?
Does it matter that SEK has had a strong run up in the last 2 or so years? ie Well and truly in stage 2

Looks like a stage 3 to me on the daily.

 

[CanOz]

Nizar or Dutchy or NOMORE4s have any of you coded up a scan for these in either MS or AB?

 

[nomore4s]

Looks like a stage 3 to me on the daily.

I suppose thats what I asking, has a good chance of breaking down imo. But I suppose if it breaks up all good and if it breaks down don't go near it.

Nizar or Dutchy or NOMORE4s have any of you coded up a scan for these in either MS or AB?

No I haven't but I know someone posted one up in one of the threads, maybe the entry thread, I'll see if I can find it and post it here for you.

 

[Dutchy3]

Hi Nomore4

I agree with nizar ... this stock is in a bull run and is pausing ... The big white with arrow is on 150% of 50 period average volume as well and dominating the price since. A close below this white and I'd exit long. Else hold for a resumption of the bull run.

So this is in stage II (at least could be stage III ... no evidence yet).

A big white closing up around 800 would be confirmation to hold long. Entering long fine too with STOP's around 700 ... wait for the signal week though.

The closest I come to writing code in MS is to look for BIG WHITES, HIGHER VOLUME THAN AVERAGE, TOTAL AVERAGE TRADED > $300,000 PER PERIOD.

This narrows me down as CFD's not offered on whole market + liquidity issues anyway etc etc

 

[nomore4s]

Nizar or Dutchy or NOMORE4s have any of you coded up a scan for these in either MS or AB?

Try this cana, post 22, thanks to Peaky.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=159415#post159415

Hi Dutchy,

Here's my AmiBroker code that flags my possible Weinstein trades. It generates about 10 buy signals a day. At the moment I'm just using MACD as the exit.

**********************************************

// WeinsteinScanner v2 amibroker version
// here we define buy conditions and name each one as a variable
PositionSize = -10; // always invest only 10% of the current Equity
Cond1=Volume > 1000000;// Volume greater than....
cond2=H > EMA(C,15); // todays high is greater than the 15 day Exp MA of closes
cond3=C < 3.00; // only trading in stocks less than $3
cond4=C > O; // todays close higher than open
cond5=HHVBars(H,150) == 0; // highest high over the past 150 periods
cond6=C > .01; // only trading in stocks greater than $0.01

// the following line is the trigger if all conditions satisfied
Buy=cond1 AND cond2 AND cond3 AND cond4 AND cond5 AND cond6;


Filter = Buy; // lists exploration results conforming to our buy criteria
AddColumn(Buy, "buy", 1.0); //


//SELL
// ApplyStop( stopTypeLoss, stopModePercent, amount=10 );
// fast = Optimize("fast", 12, 5, 20, 1 );
// slow = Optimize("slow", 26, 10, 25, 1 );
// Sell=Cross(Signal(fast,slow),MACD(fast,slow));


// shape = Buy * shapeUpArrow + Sell * shapeDownArrow;
// PlotShapes( shape, IIf( Buy , colorGreen, colorRed ), 0, IIf( Buy , Low, High));

**********************************************

 

[legs]

I believe after reading some of your posts and a little reading on bollinger squeezes, I find this stock appealing to me. NDO, one of your mentioned watch list stocks. It is definately squeezing tightly and hope it breaks up... Any comments welcome as I am very new to this and maybe I am reading to much into it??

 

[Wysiwyg]

I believe after reading some of your posts and a little reading on bollinger squeezes, I find this stock appealing to me. NDO, one of your mentioned watch list stocks. It is definately squeezing tightly and hope it breaks up... Any comments welcome as I am very new to this and maybe I am reading to much into it??

Legs .. . My view is that although the chart signs are there , on any given stock it does (sometimes) depend on progressive news to move the price in the expected way.I see many stock that show all the signs but without any news for encouragement or despair the price will languish.My example is NRU which produced a cup and handle but without any progress details has declined slowly.

This decline is related to the (a)ones holding tight waiting for the inevitable uplift and (b)the ones that patience and percentage decline is unacceptable so they sell.

I suppose it comes back to which come first , the formation or the fundamentals.

 

[nizar]

Dutchy.
You may wanna take a look at MDL.
Not a breakout yet. But looks prime
Just needs to break $1.40 on a bit of volume and i mite even be joining you.

 

[CanOz]

Try this cana, post 22, thanks to Peaky.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=159415#post159415

Hi Dutchy,

Here's my AmiBroker code that flags my possible Weinstein trades. It generates about 10 buy signals a day. At the moment I'm just using MACD as the exit.

**********************************************

// WeinsteinScanner v2 amibroker version
// here we define buy conditions and name each one as a variable
PositionSize = -10; // always invest only 10% of the current Equity
Cond1=Volume > 1000000;// Volume greater than....
cond2=H > EMA(C,15); // todays high is greater than the 15 day Exp MA of closes
cond3=C < 3.00; // only trading in stocks less than $3
cond4=C > O; // todays close higher than open
cond5=HHVBars(H,150) == 0; // highest high over the past 150 periods
cond6=C > .01; // only trading in stocks greater than $0.01

// the following line is the trigger if all conditions satisfied
Buy=cond1 AND cond2 AND cond3 AND cond4 AND cond5 AND cond6;


Filter = Buy; // lists exploration results conforming to our buy criteria
AddColumn(Buy, "buy", 1.0); //


//SELL
// ApplyStop( stopTypeLoss, stopModePercent, amount=10 );
// fast = Optimize("fast", 12, 5, 20, 1 );
// slow = Optimize("slow", 26, 10, 25, 1 );
// Sell=Cross(Signal(fast,slow),MACD(fast,slow));


// shape = Buy * shapeUpArrow + Sell * shapeDownArrow;
// PlotShapes( shape, IIf( Buy , colorGreen, colorRed ), 0, IIf( Buy , Low, High));

**********************************************

How do i get your sell to work? After i take out the comment markers it keeps giving me syntax errors, need semi colon etc etc. It says i need to initalise the SELL...shows you how bloody far i've got to go with this

SELL=......that did it!

 

[Dutchy3]

Hi Nizar

MDL ways to go yet ...

Try closer look at Webjet, SGL (lots of nice white candle accumulations), ARW,

I'm fully invested with a gearing of 1 : 3.5-4.0 so not much room to move.

Look at weekly charts

 

[Dutchy3]

Hi Legs

NDO not on watchlist ... I have open positions now with STOP's from 27 ish. Bought back in early April as it started to break higher ... this needs to hold 27 for me to stay long

 

[nizar]

Dutchy.

How about URA if we get a white candle on volume?

 

[tayser]

Thanks for sharing you thoughts Dutchy, been following this thread a fair bit, as I'm very much a beginner and am finding this strategy somewhat easy to relate to... just to throw a stock in to the ring re: your thoughts: ENG in the past two days?