Depression greater than 1929 a possibility

[nunthewiser]

Also , not just overseas , what about the person with patience and foresight .

5/10/15/20 years down the track what if one is waiting ? waiting to rejoin the cycle that is and has always been . waiting to rebuy them positively geared propertys again , waiting for that large block of industrial aceraege that will sit there becoming cheaper, waiting for the markets to finally change there trend.....

so many opportunities can pass one bye if all they can see is the gloomy side of the situation

ok sorry if stating the obvious

off my soapbox and back to the convent until im shown a sign

 

[juddy]

After all the rubbish that has come out of the mouth of this goose over the last 8 years, why should this statement be taken so seriously?

 

[drsmith]

Some one said the market could drop another 20-25% looks like this could be it.

On October 12 the IMF’s chief economist predicted that shares could slump by another 20% before stabilising. This was directly after that bad week in October. The context was in the following few weeks so this to some extent is now old news.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article4926584.ece

 

[cbacamden]

What ever way you look at it, it sure is interesting times.

I personally think its all a big setup. You need a very big disaster to allow them to get everyone to accept the maor changes they are going to come up with.

Expect the new reforms to come out of this to be big and Bad. One world currency ?(maybe closer than we think)

Interesting Times

 

[brty]

hi,

Mr Burns....

until we get a clearer picture

When is the right time to buy??

Is it when all the news is good or it's all bad??

I've heard people waiting for clearer pictures, things to improve, market to turn around etc for over 20 years. The problem is that when things do get better, the same people then want to wait for a pullback because prices have risen too far...

Of course this time it's different.

brty

 

[cbacamden]

A good point

The few guys I know of that have serious money started to buy a few weeks ago and are slowly getting in NOW and over the comming mth.

If it falls another 15-20% i think they woud be happy just to keep buying

Who knows ?

 

[tech/a]

Take a look at the difference in leadership quality shown by Obama when comparing to Bush and Rudd.

Obama---We CAN do it.--Frankly many feel they can.

Rudd---Things are going to get worse---They will!!!

Who would you want leading your place of employment---let alone your country!

 

[MrBurns]

hi,

Mr Burns....

When is the right time to buy??

brty

When the markets settle again unless you want to take a risk and jump in now , might be ok might not.

The only reason I'm not buying in now is because of the chance that things may get significantly worse, may happen, may not but there's too much bad news around for me to take that risk, yet.

You may not pick the bottom but who cares I'd rather be safe than sorry.

 

[Mofra]

After all the rubbish that has come out of the mouth of this goose over the last 8 years, why should this statement be taken so seriously?

Bingo. A halfwit who didn't even know what the G20 was says something could happen, and we're supposed to dig a shelter because something might occur.

 

[MrBurns]

After all the rubbish that has come out of the mouth of this goose over the last 8 years, why should this statement be taken so seriously?

When the US President says the US may have gone into a deeper depression than 1929, you have to take note.

He may not be the brightest apple in the barrel but he has access to advice that you dont so to think you know better would be a mistake.

 

[Bushman]

A bull market in 2010 is also a possibility.

Would've hoped that the chief alarmist would have started dealing in probabilities by now.

Probabilities -
1. that Iraq had WMD - low. But is was possible!
2. that financial WMD like CDO's would continue to rise in value indefinitely - low; but it was possible!
3. that a major hurricane would not breach New Orleans levy system - low. But is was a possibility!

He is a cretin - the worst statesman since, well, I cannot think of one in modern Western history. He is also the ultimate symbol of the golden debt-fuelled bull. You would not elect someone like him if you were not riding a high and political risk was mispriced along with evertyhting else in the capital system.

We will not have another Great Depression. What has happened this time that did not happen in the 1930's - a co-ordinated injection of liquidity by Central Banks across the world. Off-setting this, it is true, has been the exponential rise of derivative products. So it will be bad - but it will not be the Great Depression.

Only in financial markets, where the only crowd emotions seem to be at the extremities of human behaviour (ie irrational optimism or irrational pessimism) will participants trawl through the history books to find the best-case or worst-case scenario to support their mental state. So it is a depression but, in this case, it is in the minds of the participants that it is occuring.

Stop wasting energy on worst-case scenarios now - the worst-case has already occured and we are now going through the process of confirming it statistically.

 

[tech/a]

Good Post Bushman.
I agree.

 

[Ageo]

We will not have another Great Depression. What has happened this time that did not happen in the 1930's - a co-ordinated injection of liquidity by Central Banks across the world. Off-setting this, it is true, has been the exponential rise of derivative products. So it will be bad - but it will not be the Great Depression.

So do you believe what the central banks did (injecting trillions of dollars) was a good idea?

 

[MrBurns]

We will not have another Great Depression. What has happened this time that did not happen in the 1930's - a co-ordinated injection of liquidity by Central Banks across the world. Off-setting this, it is true, has been the exponential rise of derivative products. So it will be bad - but it will not be the Great Depression.

Stop wasting energy on worst-case scenarios now - the worst-case has already occured and we are now going through the process of confirming it statistically.

I dont believe there could be a depression alla soup lines like the Great Depression I dont think anyone thinks that but things could get a lot worse, you say the worst is over ? brave call, put your money on it , I'll wait a bit longer.

As far as Bush goes I'm not sticking up for him but the advice he gets may be worth considering , thats what I've been saying, I get sick of people jumping on the bash Bush wagon every time his name is mentioned , it's just bloody boring.

 

[Sean K]

Stop wasting energy on worst-case scenarios now - the worst-case has already occured and we are now going through the process of confirming it statistically.

I agree with this to some extent, but it's no certainty. Worst case predictions of business losses/closes and job losses is just a prediction. Could be worse (or better) than the overall sentiment. I think you are tipping that the worst is factored in. You might be right.

 

[BradK]

I agree with some posts who think that George W Bush only uses the politics of fear to push through unpopular legislation.... and I agree, something BIG is about to come.

Obama, like Roosevelt, believes in a solution... whereas Bush is trying to employ the shock doctrine to push something through...

The only thing to fear is fear itself... I hope interest rates get to 3% and inflation takes off so that I own my house quicker! Stuff all you savers!!! I will then get into more debt for another investment property... saving is for LOSERS!

Brad

 

[numbercruncher]

I agree with some posts who think that George W Bush only uses the politics of fear to push through unpopular legislation.... and I agree, something BIG is about to come.

Obama, like Roosevelt, believes in a solution... whereas Bush is trying to employ the shock doctrine to push something through...

The only thing to fear is fear itself... I hope interest rates get to 3% and inflation takes off so that I own my house quicker! Stuff all you savers!!! I will then get into more debt for another investment property... saving is for LOSERS!

Brad

lol nice outburst .....


Speaking of fear, seems deflation has you edgy ?

 

[Bushman]

you say the worst is over ?
.

The worst has been priced into the stock market. Those smashed by the credit crunch are slowly forming bottoms ala ANZ $13.07 (52-week low, P/E ratio 6.17, dividend yield 10.34%), NAB ($18.33 52-week low, P/E ratio 7, dividend yield 10.54%) etc. Based on FY08 earnings, these are stock prices that have priced in some serious nastiness.

In terms of main street (ie unemployment, small business bankruptcy, Aussie housing declines) the worst is yet to come. This will be confirmed by stats over the next three to six months.

The liquidity injection was a necessary response given Lehman had collapsed. No point torching the farm after the horse has bolted. The issue was with earlier deregulation of the banks and the unfetered political belief in Adam Smith's 'invisible hand'. That I do not believe in ... liquidity flow should be unencumbered by short-term profit objectives.

Long-term - well cheap debt got us into this position so the only historical certainty we know in all this, the asset valuation cycle, will kick back into an upward surge. Hopefully increased scrutiny/regulation will ensure it does not get to the top too quickly otherwise we will have yet another bubble bursting.

My 2c only...

 

[MrBurns]

The worst has been priced into the stock market. Those smashed by the credit crunch are slowly forming bottoms ala ANZ $13.07 (52-week low, P/E ratio 6.17, dividend yield 10.34%), NAB ($18.33 52-week low, P/E ratio 7, dividend yield 10.54%) etc. Based on FY08 earnings, these are stock prices that have priced in some serious nastiness.

In terms of main street (ie unemployment, small business bankruptcy, Aussie housing declines) the worst is yet to come. This will be confirmed by stats over the next three to six months.

The liquidity injection was a necessary response given Lehman had collapsed. No point torching the farm after the horse has bolted. The issue was with earlier deregulation of the banks and the unfetered political belief in Adam Smith's 'invisible hand'. That I do not believe in ... liquidity flow should be unencumbered by short-term profit objectives.

Long-term - well cheap debt got us into this position so the only historical certainty we know in all this, the asset valuation cycle, will kick back into an upward surge. Hopefully increased scrutiny/regulation will ensure it does not get to the top too quickly otherwise we will have yet another bubble bursting.

My 2c only...

Not sure if the worst has been factored into the share market yet, I wish I believed that, I'm busting to buy something but everything is just too volatile at this point.

Yes there will be another bubble after all this is over, there's no one out there with enough smarts or the will to stop it.

 

[Spek]

I agree with some posts who think that George W Bush only uses the politics of fear to push through unpopular legislation.... and I agree, something BIG is about to come.

Obama, like Roosevelt, believes in a solution... whereas Bush is trying to employ the shock doctrine to push something through...

The only thing to fear is fear itself... I hope interest rates get to 3% and inflation takes off so that I own my house quicker! Stuff all you savers!!! I will then get into more debt for another investment property... saving is for LOSERS!

Brad

Supply and demand - when everyone is borrowing there is money to be made in saving and visa versa.

If you follow the herd you will end up average joe at best. On the bright side you wont be lonely.