Depression greater than 1929 a possibility

[MrBurns]

Is "depression" only an extended "recession" or are the words often attached "deep recession" or "deep depression", extended recession, short recession, just attempts to prevent one being seen as the other.

In economics, a depression is a sustained, long downturn in one or more economies. It is more severe than a recession, which is seen as a normal downturn in the business cycle.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depression_(economics)

Considered a rare but extreme form of recession, a depression is characterized by abnormal increases in unemployment, restriction of credit, shrinking output and investment, numerous bankruptcies, reduced amounts of trade and commerce, as well as highly volatile relative currency value fluctuations, mostly devaluations. Price deflation or hyperinflation are also common elements of a depression

 

[basilio]

There are lots of really clear and obvious reasons why we will fall into a bottomless depression which will crush the life out of our souls, destroy the world as we know it ect, ect, etctera...

But it is also worth remembering the power of will, confidence and refusal to quit. When England was alone in 1940 against Germany with the rest of Europe conquered it seemed to have a snowballs chance in hell of surviving. Many politicians in fact were looking for a settlement with Germany. It took a completely pig headed bastard like Churchill to hold England together and in effect shape the world we live in. Worth thinking about.

Incidentally on the other side of the picture the German Wehrmacht was also a very determined force. I remember in analysis on the results on many battles, the Germans prevailed simply because in numerous small firefights their soldiers would keep on fighting, even when seriously out manned, a bit longer than the Yanks or English (or even Aussies). It was that simple. Keep fighting, don't give up, refuse to give in. Very effective strategy.

I suggest these are worth considering when it comes to considering how bad economic times might become and what might be done to tackle them. Strong leadership, a common sense of purpose, a (relatively) united people. Given the **** we are going to go through I think we need this perspective.

 

[Calliope]

This is tongue in cheek isnt it!

Yeah. It's called sarcasm.

 

[Glen48]

What do you do when your broker knocks on the door?


Say thank you, hand him the money and take your Pizza.

 

[brty]

Hi,

A little perspective and understanding of history would not go astray in this thread.

In the '30's depression, the factors that caused it were a restriction of credit by banks and a contraction of government spending (being prudent in tough times).

So far we have the contraction of lending, but governments are spending up big, creating money out of thin air, M3 money supply rising. Plus the governments have bailed/socialised many banks where necessary. When the governments tell the banks to lend/jump, the answer can only be "how high", as they now effectively control them (especially with the guarantees).

At the very least this will lead to different outcomes to the '30's crash.

Deep recession/stagflation, yep easily possible, with the savings (Super) of the baby boomers being destroyed in the process, is my tip for the immediate future.

Too many politicians care about the votes they would lose for anything else to happen ie depression.

brty

 

[arco]

Losses of $30bn feared from commodities cutbacks

SLUMPING commodities markets could slash $30 billion from Australia's biggest exports -- coal and iron ore -- next financial year.

Analysts are giving steep downgrades to price forecasts based on worsening demand in China

As mining chiefs also become increasingly pessimistic, Goldman Sachs JBWere yesterday issued big, across-the-board downgrades for Australian miners and Macquarie slashed its BHP Billiton profit estimate for next financial year by a staggering $US13 billion ($20.2 billion).

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24672741-643,00.html

 

[MrBurns]

At the very least this will lead to different outcomes to the '30's crash.

brty

Of course it wont be the same as the 30's people in those days were living very simple lives anyway so the depression as bad as it was could be handled by people in the main, they were used to hardship.

It wont take much at all to shock the present generation of overfed spoiled brats into the fetal position when the **** hits the fan, they think hard times are giving up Foxtel, it will be a very painful learning curve.

People have been pampered ad ad nauseum by successive administrations that just give everyone as many lollies as they like to get votes.

 

[nunthewiser]

Of course it wont be the same as the 30's people in those days were living very simple lives anyway so the depression as bad as it was could be handled by people in the main, they were used to hardship.

It wont take much at all to shock the present generation of overfed spoiled brats into the fetal position when the **** hits the fan, they think hard times are giving up Foxtel, it will be a very painful learning curve.

People have been pampered ad ad nauseum by successive administrations that just give everyone as many lollies as they like to get votes.

hahahahahahahah i must say i enjoy your posts regardless if they incorrect, irrelevant, one eyed .

but at least your posts do have creativity and often contain a great deal of truth within the rant

cheers mr burns may your cockles be warmed daily

 

[MrBurns]

hahahahahahahah i must say i enjoy your posts regardless if they incorrect, irrelevant, one eyed .

but at least your posts do have creativity and often contain a great deal of truth within the rant

cheers mr burns may your cockles be warmed daily

wise nun my posts are always correct, relevant and balanced.

have a heavenly day

 

[Calliope]

Of course it wont be the same as the 30's people in those days were living very simple lives anyway so the depression as bad as it was could be handled by people in the main, they were used to hardship.

It wont take much at all to shock the present generation of overfed spoiled brats into the fetal position when the **** hits the fan, they think hard times are giving up Foxtel, it will be a very painful learning curve.

People have been pampered ad ad nauseum by successive administrations that just give everyone as many lollies as they like to get votes.

Your observations are spot on. Consider this item in the Brisbane C-M today in regard to storm damage in one of Brisbane's wealthier suburbs.

Some voiced disappointment at the levels of help offered to them
Others lined up for government financial assistance at an Ashgrove church where they could also receive counselling

As the area has been declared a national disaster, those living in their oversized, overpriced jerry-built house who have no insurance coverage will probably be bailled out by the taxpayer. If they had spent their mortgage money in building smaller stronger houses in less "leafy" suburbs they would still have their roofs.

The only people recession proof here are the councellors.

 

[MrBurns]

Your observations are spot on. Consider this item in the Brisbane C-M today in regard to storm damage in one of Brisbane's wealthier suburbs.



As the area has been declared a national disaster, those living in their oversized, overpriced jerry-built house who have no insurance coverage will probably be bailled out by the taxpayer. If they had spent their mortgage money in building smaller stronger houses in less "leafy" suburbs they would still have their roofs.

The only people recession proof here are the councellors.

If the recessioin is bad enough it will be like boot camp to these people, many won't make it through, those that do will be better people for it.

That seems a strange thing to say but in a way it's true.

 

[prawn_86]

they think hard times are giving up Foxtel, it will be a very painful learning curve.

Funny you mention that, we just bought Foxtel, due to the good offers they have happening at the moment

No debt, yearly holidays and still save 15 - 10% of our incomes. And yes we are one of the "overfed spoiled brats" of the current generation you refer too :

 

[MrBurns]

Funny you mention that, we just bought Foxtel, due to the good offers they have happening at the moment

No debt, yearly holidays and still save 15 - 10% of our incomes. And yes we are one of the "overfed spoiled brats" of the current generation you refer too :

You sound ok, well done, dont be fooled into leveraging yourself into the St Kilda property market by robots

 

[Glen48]

One good thing about a depression a lot of people will have a change of heart and suddenly find some compassion once they find their Beamer and Harvey Normal Plasma TV is not an asset.
I was at a Dr. one day and some mother was complaining how Nick Webster wouldn't sign the daughter Cd because it was not purchased from NW herself.
The DR said imagine how I feel when I have to tell some one they have X amount of time to live.
Bring on the down turn lets get it over and done with.
Any one know how RE is going in Victorian Mafia area's?