Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

December 2008 Confidence poll

Please indicate your current level of confidence in the world economy

  • Great. Will bounce back strongly in early to mid-2009.

    Votes: 4 5.3%

  • OK. Flat for a few months then come good from mid to late 2009.

    Votes: 18 23.7%

  • Struggling. Will stagnate until mid 2010, then recover slowly over years.

    Votes: 29 38.2%

  • In trouble. Will go deeper into recession and not recover till after mid-2011

    Votes: 11 14.5%

  • In big trouble. Will fall into deep recession and won't recover till after mid 2012.

    Votes: 9 11.8%

  • Stuffed. Heading for depression and won't recover till well after 2012 (if ever)

    Votes: 5 6.6%
  • Total voters
    76
  • Poll closed .
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A

Aussiejeff

Joined
10 July 2004
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Given all the chat about confidence in the markets / economy or lack thereof, I thought it timely to have a little pre-Xmas poll.

Will be interesting to see where sentiment lies in 6 months.

TALLY-HO, SANTA!!!

:santa:
 
Re: DEC 2008 Confidence poll

joeyr46 said:
Be good to have a bullish consensus on the all ords once a week
Click to expand...

Well, the DOW has just gone on a mad, loco bull-run. Will the fattened Ozzie calf follow?

You betcha!! Stand back when the floodgates open Monday morning.

:)

[size=-5]Gee, this bottle of "Blind Optimism"(Tm) I bought on eBay from the Land of Unca Sam is mighty powerful stuff. I think I'll have me anouther sip....ahhhhh - that's better!!![/size]
 
Re: DEC 2008 Confidence poll

Aussiejeff said:
Who cares? Unca Sam will fix it!

China? - FIXED!
Eurowhatsits - FIXED!

See?
Click to expand...

Well, I'm just saying - don't expect a rise on our markets come Monday. The US markets have risen for days this week, whilst we've been down or neutral. I suspect we went too hard, too fast last week ... perhaps we're now playing catch up, as reality sets in again.
 
Re: DEC 2008 Confidence poll

Nyden said:
Well, I'm just saying - don't expect a rise on our markets come Monday. The US markets have risen for days this week, we've been down or neutral. I suspect we went too hard, too fast last week ... perhaps we're now playing catch up, as reality sets in again.
Click to expand...

*pop*

Curse you Nyden - you are a blind optimist's worst nightmare - a realist! :)
 
My feeling is that nobody knows what's going on or when this will end. I don't know where the bottom will be, but I do know we'll get out of it eventually.

I see it in terms of possible outcomes.

There's a chance things will go from bad to much worse as interest rates go to 0 and fiscal policy fails. Cascading bank failures as foreign parents let small subsidiaries die. Countries without a strong indigenous banking system (unlike US, UK, Aus) end up with a small number of state owned banks as host governments nationalise failing subsidiaries. Bank failures foster distrust in international trade resulting in increased tariffs, subsidies and trade blocks. Global unemployment skyrockets, particularly in countries heavily reliant on foreign debt who's currency's take a beating. Some governments default. The global economy struggles for years.

There's a chance we're through the worst of it. There'll still be the odd bank failure (of marginal banks) as governments reduce their support of the banking system. The real economy effects linger for a while, but for the most part, the world successfully inflates and spends their way out of trouble. Banks will be more cautious with their lending in the future and many, particularly the larger banks, will underperform as regulators impose significantly higher capital requirements.

There's also a chance we've seen the end of the banking crisis and 2009 is the year of the real economy. Banks lend readily to people with strong credit, but those cutting it too fine will struggle. For the banks, it's the year of asset quality. We get 6-12 months more recession, but the recession is relatively shallow as money on the sidelines begin to pick up what they see as cheap assets.
 
Ahh.... that's better.... my confidence pointer is rising...

Like Kings Canute, Santas Rudd & Obama appear to have soothed The World and held back the rising tides of despair.

It appears all will be well now (until the Xmas Cheer wears off!)

Meanwhile, the confidence vote is picking up :)
 
OK! Enough is enough already ... :) and the results were -


(1) Great. Will bounce back strongly in early to mid-2009. 4 5.48%
(2) OK. Flat for a few months then come good from mid to late 2009. 16 21.92%
(3) Struggling. Will stagnate until mid 2010, then recover slowly over years. 29 39.73%
(4) In trouble. Will go deeper into recession and not recover till after mid-2011 11 15.07%
(5) In big trouble. Will fall into deep recession and won't recover till after mid 2012. 8 10.96%
(6) Stuffed. Heading for depression and won't recover till well after 2012 (if ever) 5 6.85%

So, taking a rough average, the majority would fall between options (2) & (3) but closer to (3) - maybe a slow recovery hopefully from early 2010 onwards...

Only another 12 months? Lets hope so!

Merry Xmas and ta' to those who donated their hard-won vote freely and without due prejudice! :) :)


aj
 

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