Daily Market Predictions

[TjamesX]

A good read regarding GM and Ford situation....

http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business...-makers-to-junk/2005/05/06/1115092685065.html

cheers
TJ

 

[chicken]

Well, I am just reading that Toyota is getting involved with GM and the Billionaire is buying more shares in GM...the story is getting better by the day..maybe that is why we have not seen the fallout...intresting I thought

 

[chicken]

With the dow up should bring a positive note into the market....not before time.....

 

[el_ninj0]

With the dow up should bring a positive note into the market....not before time.....

Its like a yoyo, almost up and down everyday. Rediculous. You would think sooner or later the australian investers would be thinking, "hey, mabey we should wait till tommorow to see what happens?".

Follow the DOW and your a bloody idiot...

 

[DTM]

Its like a yoyo, almost up and down everyday. Rediculous. You would think sooner or later the australian investers would be thinking, "hey, mabey we should wait till tommorow to see what happens?".

Follow the DOW and your a bloody idiot...

A bit harsh I think.

I follow the DOW and time my trades to what the DOW does. There's a lot of

stocks out there that follow the DOW.

 

[chicken]

A bit harsh I think.

I follow the DOW and time my trades to what the DOW does. There's a lot of

stocks out there that follow the DOW.

Whats wrong with this market the dow goes up the AUSSIE GOES DOWN....must be a lot of shorting at present....but like a rubberband it will come back up....when....after the aussie financial year...its all manipulated..as usuall the big boys suit themself....might be better tomorrow...we will see....

 

[DTM]

I see today's fall a continuation of yesterday's fall. I think it should bounce now.

Maybe with the fall of the dollar, overseas hedgefunds are taking their profits.

 

[Aussiejeff]

I'll second that theory, DTM...

As observed many times of late, DOW UP = AOX DOWN.

BTW, I wonder how the imminent re-valuing of China's currency against a raft of others will affect our retailers? Many of them import significant amounts of Chinese goods (especially the cut price special companies). If the Chinese currency tends to appreciate against ours (which I believe is the common consensus ATM) many of these retailers could be headed for some serious short term pain IMO - both financially and share price wise....

Any thoughts on that?

Cheers,

AJ

 

[Investor]

My thinking is that the local market is still tentative and will focus on the daily profit downgrades.

Until the "confession season" is over, we might not have any firm direction.

However, it is now patently obvious that consumer discretionary stocks will have significant problems. To me, some (the smaller ones) will not survive (but I could be wrong). Time will tell.

 

[GreatPig]

XAO showing a decent lift yesterday, with the overseas markets shown on the NAB site all showing up this morning.

Could be another good day today.

GP

 

[Aussiejeff]

*SHOULD* see the 4000 barrier broken again. Fingers crossed it stays that way for a while at least!

Happy trading if your still participating in "the daily lottery" ;O),

AJ

 

[GreatPig]

Hmm... pretty ordinary so far.

GP

 

[Aussiejeff]

Hmm... pretty ordinary so far.

GP

Depends on whether you like Yo-Yo's!

;O)

AJ

 

[allstar]

Hey everyone, this thread is for those who either want to voice their opionions about the direction of the market for the current day or next day, or those who wish to want to know what other people are thinking about the market for the day, and their reason(s) for thinking what they do.

gog will make a good run realy sonn

 

[DTM]

The XJO is at 4044 where it opened with 30 minutes of trading left. If it falls below this, it could mean the end of nice run up we've had recently. If the XJO keeps dropping like say another 10 points, it could give us nasty bearish hammer formation (with the candlesticks). This is a very bearish signal especially when its on top of an upwards movment.

I'm also tipping the Dow Jones to drop tonight too so Monday could be one of those free fall days.



I could be wrong

 

[Joe Blow]

gog will make a good run realy sonn

Hi allstar... welcome to the forums!

In future, please try and include a reason why you believe GOG is going to go for a run, otherwise your post may be deleted.

Blatant ramping violates the Aussie Stock Forums code of conduct... which you can review here: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/help/terms

 

[TjamesX]

Well today was an interesting day... I think it was the first significant upward move the aussie market has made without taking a lead from the US in quite a while.

Is this a change in market sentiment??

 

[ob1kenobi]

Well today was an interesting day... I think it was the first significant upward move the aussie market has made without taking a lead from the US in quite a while.

Is this a change in market sentiment??

I agree with the first part: it was an interesting day for the xao. It certainly was refreshing to see the xao follow its own lead rather than the dow. My suspicion is that today has merely steered things toward a more neutral market. Given that the 52 week range averages to 3800 and that the lowest point today was 3990 and that the average for today is just over 4000, I still anticipate that the xao will hover around the 3900 mark. I suspect that we are starting to see traders buying up ahead of closing dates for dividends (dividend yield play) and / or closing out of positions ahead of the financial year coming to a close. I would like to think that today is reason to take heart and celebrate but I think this is premature (mind you, happy to be wrong if it keeps going up!).



---------------
This is merely my opinion and does not constitute financial advice. When considering your financial objectives, please consult a suitably qualified and licenced professional.

 

[Investor]

....Is this a change in market sentiment??

With the passing of each trading day, the market will breath a sigh of relief whenever there is no major profit downgrade from any ASX 150 stocks.

The confession season will soon be over and the local market will probably resume its upward climb thereafter, provided there are no external shocks from Wall Street. The linkage to Wall Street cannot be helped. Foreign investors hold a sizeable % of ASX stocks.

 

[Investor]

Bourse revival expected
The Australian
May 11, 2005

IF the budget assumptions are correct, the recent Australian share market fall is just a correction and it will regain forward momentum.

All those in the wealth management industry are in the front line to benefit because superannuation will be made more attractive, but conventional banking growth will be subdued because of continued tough conditions in the housing market during the next year.

And retailers may not see all the tax cuts go through their cash registers because Treasury believes there could be further falls in home prices that will hold back consumption expenditure as Australians reduce their debts levels.

In a thinly veiled warning to the Reserve Bank, Treasury says that a prolonged period of falling or flat house prices may rein in consumption expenditure more than expected.

In other words: "Ian Macfarlane don't put up interest rates."

But underpinning the share market, Treasury is forecasting an 18 per cent rise in corporate tax revenue led by the resources companies. To be on the safe side, it has assumed a big fall in commodity prices in 2006 and 2007 but emphasises this is not a prediction.

Indeed, if Treasury's optimistic global scenarios are correct commodities will remain strong until there are big increases in supply.

The Future Fund sums are mind-blowing. In 2005-06, about $16 billion will be taken out of government coffers and put into a fund with an independent investment team to manage the money like any other retirement fund. And in the following three years another $15 million will be transferred.

While the fund will invest in the overall share market, a large portion of its money will go to income-earning infrastructure investments and commercial property, because they provide a reliable income and are not as volatile as ordinary shares.

Indeed, when I asked Costello where the future fund money would go, he isolated infrastructure investment and used Macquarie infrastructure funds as an illustration.

Because of delays, there may be a shortage of good projects and many will take time to produce revenue.

The early estimates of future fund returns appear to be less than 5 per cent.

If Telstra is sold, Costello would like to put all the funds received into the future fund, but recognises that this target may be too optimistic.

Of course, the Government could also transfer, say, 25 per cent of its Telstra stake to the future fund, which would substantially reduce the number Telstra shares being sold to the public and institutions. This would increase the price.

Champagne began flowing at the AMP, Axa, CBA and Westpac wealth management operations as soon as Costello announced the levy abolition.

Even NAB CEO John Stewart, who today is announcing the retrenchment of some 2000 people in Australia, may have briefly smiled.

All wealth management groups have been handed an enormous marketing opportunity. As middle-income people are enticed to be once again serious about superannuation, many will take the self-managed fund option.

Treasury expects new business investment to rise 6 per cent but it will be dominated by resource projects.

Increasing commercial office vacancy rates, a slower rate of commencement of new infrastructure projects and increasing prices for steel and cement will restrain growth in non-dwelling construction.

That means many labour-intensive building suppliers are in for a tough time, which will affect the employment market in some areas.

But the biggest danger is abroad. Treasury warns that a danger to continued global prosperity is a "sudden change in sentiment regarding relative risks and reward from holding US dollar assets" which would result in "an abrupt and disruptive adjustment" to exchange rates and interest rates.

But, if that does not happen, Treasury expects US growth to hold at 3.5 per cent this year and 2006 (4.4 per cent in 2004) and China to fall from 9.5 per cent last year to 8 per cent in 2006, leading to only a mild downturn in the growth rates of our trading partners – a wonderful outcome and a very soft landing.