Daily Market Predictions

[malachii]

The comment that fired the yanks last night was Greenspan completely discounting the chance of the US economy entering a period of "stagflation".

Malachii

 

[malachii]

Sorry that message above should have read "..Greenspan completely discounting the chance of the US economy entering a period of "stagflation" in the SHORT TERM. He went onto say that if things continued then stagflation or worse was a possiblity.

Malachii

 

[Smurf1976]

Im not saying that their wouldn't be losses, and yes, if GM and Ford were to collapse there would a massive loss to Australian jobs aswell. However, Im sure if GM or Ford were to collapse there would be another major (either Japanese or Chinese) car manufacturer to step in and reep the rewards of lower competition in the market place. And that, in turn would recreate the jobs and replace lost revenue in the hands of the new company, everything evens out in the end.

Do you mean that a Japanese or Chinese car manufacturer would buy the Australian manufacturing plants owned by GM and Ford and physically manufacture their cars in Australia using Australian components etc. as GM and Ford do now?

Would this be a largely seamless transition which would see, in practice (since it takes a long time to tool up for a new model) the new owners continue production of cars which are effectively identical to Commodore, Falcon etc (but presumably under a different name) at least until production was swapped over to alternative models?.

Or do you mean that we would just import the cars from Japan, China or wherever?

If the Australian manufacturing plants close, even temporarily, then we have a truly massive, highly visible shock to the economy. Due to the visibility of the shock the effects would likely be amplified as even those consumers in no way directly affected would likely become concerned about the economy.

This visibility is very different to, for example, the collapse of Pasminco. With the exception of Tasmania where the "zinc works" (also known as "EZ") is incredibly well known and those other places where it has physical operations most Australians had never even heard of the company. It was just another business gone broke, no big deal to most.

But EVERYONE has heard of Ford and GM. It can't possibly be good for consumer sentiment and spending. Add that to the direct effects of the loss of GM and / or Ford manufacturing and the already slowing economy, wobbly house prices etc. and it doesn't take too much to end up in a recession. There's a lot of "if" in there but there would seem to be a real risk IMHO.

 

[el_ninj0]

Do you mean that a Japanese or Chinese car manufacturer would buy the Australian manufacturing plants owned by GM and Ford and physically manufacture their cars in Australia using Australian components etc. as GM and Ford do now?

Would this be a largely seamless transition which would see, in practice (since it takes a long time to tool up for a new model) the new owners continue production of cars which are effectively identical to Commodore, Falcon etc (but presumably under a different name) at least until production was swapped over to alternative models?.

Or do you mean that we would just import the cars from Japan, China or wherever?

What I was saying was that IF, and I stress IF GM and Ford were to have some kind of financial difficulties which led them to pull out or down grade their operations in Australia, we would see other prominant manufacturers step in to fill the void left by such a huge duo.

Example: If GM and FORD collapsed, we would see either Japanese or Chinese car Manufacturers step in to the market. I doubt that if it was a Chinese company they would start manufacturing here in Australia aswell, it is far more likely that they would take advantage of their cheaper labour forces and just ship the cars/parts over to Australia.

We would see a very large number of unemployed people coming out of this situation, and indeed a large drop in the size of the economy. But what I was reffering to when I say that "everything evens out in the end", means that revenue streams would still be there, not in its entirety, but they would still continue to exist and be snapped up by other large companies just waiting to fill a possible void.

 

[el_ninj0]

For Tuesday 26th April:

We are seeing a slight come back in other markets from todays trading session(all except australia as it is anzac day).

I think we'll see a leveling off of the ASX for tuesday possibly even a slight drop because of rising oil prices again(upto 54.16 per barrell).

Resource stocks should be ok due to rising commodities again. It seems as though the market sentiment has picked up, but i dont think we are out of the clear yet.

It will be a shaky next few weeks to come.

 

[markrmau]

I think I see money coming back into the market. A few more down days, lots of volatility and maybe a floor a few percent below here.

Ahh, I can smell the fear oozing from the market participants....

 

[chicken]

looks as if today is another day in the red...the dow spid the dummy again...

 

[Aussiejeff]

Looks like Greenspins fluffy comments have subsequently spun out......

Let's hope the out of control Yank-tank he is driving up that mountain pass hits the safety barriers first. ;o)

AJ

 

[markrmau]

I guess if the spi futures drop below 3980 or so (possible, but may see resistance if resources recover a little), then I'll be eating a big sh it sandwich.

Both spi and s&p are making lower lows and lower highs. Pretty awful channel trend down. Maybe I'll even have to turn bearish....

 

[chicken]

Looks as if monday will be for a change, a better day...should see a lot of black ink

 

[Aussiejeff]

Phew! A few days with a black ink quill in hand would be rather nice eh (even if it turns out to be a temporary bounce), now that some of us have topped up our defensives at "value" prices.... ;o)

We should all be rooting for the Yankees!

Happy Monday-itis....

AJ

 

[Orpheus]

Hey everyone, this thread is for those who either want to voice their opionions about the direction of the market for the current day or next day, or those who wish to want to know what other people are thinking about the market for the day, and their reason(s) for thinking what they do.

I belive market will rise slightly today, as yesterday market was expecting significant fall on overseas markets. Up 15pts

 

[markrmau]

I think the us will be up strongly tonight. It shot up just before close when the fed announced that it had accidentally left of a comment about inflation being under control. oops.

 

[Investor]

The local market is now firmly in sell mode, watching out for every profit downgrade and selling each stock with a profit downgrade, in a fast and furious manner.

Should the profit downgrades continue over the next few weeks, the bear would have arrived.

Margin calls on margin lending, potentially leading to forced selling will add to selling momentum.

Stop losses used by so many, will also lead to selling pressure.

 

[GreatPig]

The local market is now firmly in sell mode

Except for RHC, which I managed to pick up just before the trading halt and announcement of its new purchase.

Now it's shooting up, contrary to most things around it. Bought at $7.29, currently at $8.40. They're even offering me a few more shares for $6.20 if I want them.

I've been waiting until the last moment before accepting though, just in case they decided to plummet as well. The offer closes in a week though, so I'd better send it in.

And first sign of a significant change in direction, they're gone!

Cheers,
GP

 

[Investor]

Yes. I am also taking the offer at $6.20 a share today.

However, I do not like the high gearing level for the $1.4 billion acquisition and I could be out soon. High gearing does not fit my investment criteria.

 

[chicken]

IF the AUSTRALIANS are not careful...the Aussie $$$ will be as good as the Nigerian currency...it just keeps falling...the KIWI $$$ is getting stronger and stronger I wonder what they are doing right...as far as the market is concerned all the sheep are running one way...where is the induvidulism there is even talk of developers going broke...looks like the KIWIS the way they do business in realestate is the way to go its a much freeer country not so many restrictions as you have here in Australia..even foreingners can buy houses in New zealand...we should see a better day today more black than red...

 

[Aussiejeff]

Well, looks like the US markets are having another good hair day today... the Nasdaq picture looks just as pretty ;o)

Can the Little Bleating Ozzie market find a new direction - ie NORTH for a change???

Stay tuned folks....

AJ

 

[Investor]

....I wonder what they are doing right....

Highest interest rate in the world.

 

[Investor]

The market continues to fall. Now below 3900.

And we have not had the next profit downgrade announcement yet.

Interesting days ahead.