CXY - Cougar Energy

[LittleMak]

Interesting...... not quite sure what to make of this?????? It seems there wont be a trial burn for some 3-6 months. No major power plant for some years yet!!! Why is Len so secretive with his JORC reserves?

http://www.brr.com.au/asx/CXY


Comments anyone?

 

[james99]

Little, the Brr presentation was pretty standard stuff. I'm not sure of your familiarity with power plant construction etc so I apologise if I am telling you to suck eggs. In short:

1. there is a need to refine the design, and I suspect a consultant with be engaged for that. I think Mee used Thomas and Coffey, but I can't recall exactly.
2. then there will be a consent process, including aboriginal consent;
3. then construction of the pilot will beging;
4. then there might be a 12 - 18mth trial;
5. then a review and design refinement.
6. then the whole process starts again for the main station.

As a comparison, a nuclear plant has about a 5 - 12 year lead time, depending on resource consent issues (and appeals); hydro 5 - 8 and solar probably the least, 18 - 24 months. Wind can be 2 - 8 (noise is an issue).

Re JORC resources, I would not read anything into this. To state a non JORC resource in an ASX announcement is a breach, and the ASX recalls such announcements. BR is not of course ASX but the same discipline should apply. I do get just a bit sick of the not always substantiated claims made in prospectus and on radio and am pleased Len did not do this. In any event, Cxy will probably seek a JV partner at least for the main station, for which a resource sufficient for a 30 yr burn would be reasonable; and may (or should) seek JV resources in several regions. If Cxy manages to perfect brown coal UCG technology then it could replicate it. That said, UCG is actually used overseas, in some areas.

Frankly, the AOE announcment and BG / Origin business can only heighten interest in this (related) sector. IMO we have a way to go yet in terms of price. The difficult with what appears to be short term profit taking is, once it has reduced, a rapid and substantial escalation in price can occur, but it is jolly diffiuclt to know if that will happen tomorrow, this week, next week, next month ...(but I speculate early this month)

I disclose holdings.

 

[james99]

Of course, re resources, and potential, it is important to bear in mind the CXY international play: India, with EEPL, a sub, of 20 bil conglomerate with tenements and access to public tenements, and of course Pakistan, which MOU also contains resource access. See lins for announcements. And my suspicion is that once there has been a successul trial burn in Kingaroy, then the overseas projects (secured by MOU) will begin to be advanced. Those overseas MOU's in coal rich regions are an important differentiating factor.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080327/pdf/3187htp1zn8tb3.pdf

http://www.redorbit.com/news/scienc...o_develop_400_mw_ucg_power_station/index.html

 

[cordelia]

i took a position last week in this stock at .15c...watched it go up and then go into a trading halt. When it came back on I sold....glad i did there's other places to go that aren't as dodgy...sorry but why take the hard road and I always trust my gut instinct...

 

[farout]

Nice work cordelia. I've posted my views on this stock previously so won't bag it again. Needless to say, like yourself I believe there are much better alternatives

 

[Djayness]

Not to say i told you so or anything, but the market does not agree with either of you with the 11% gains just today. The projects that reach far beyond Australian boarders coupled with the current hype about the trial burn/ucg processes means that this stock may just continue to go up.

Im not too sure about the JV though, Im expecting some announcements outlining their intentions in the next few weeks.

 

[jaster]

Source: www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business

$2bn plan to 'fuel petroleum needs'
Rick Wallace, Victorian political reporter | June 03, 2008

A $2 BILLION coal project will be unveiled today in Victoria's Latrobe Valley as its backer suggests Australia could replace all petroleum imports by turning the nation's vast reserves of brown coal to oil.

Victorian Premier John Brumby will launch the Australian Energy Company's project to turn brown coal into enough urea, a nitrogen-rich fertiliser, to supply Australia's needs.

The plant uses coal gasification and condensing technology. Its backers say all the CO2 produced will be stored beneath the sea, making it a "clean coal" project.

The entrepreneur behind the project, Allan Blood, said Victoria's reserves of brown coal had enormous potential for fertiliser and oil production. The plant would generate 1.2million tonnes a year of urea and all the CO2 produced would be stored in reservoirs that once contained natural gas in Bass Strait.

The plant, expected to be operational by 2012, has the backing of several London-based equity funds. Joint-venture discussions with several major chemical companies have begun.

The project will require 1000 workers to produce urea through a gasification process similar to the one used in the first stage of producing oil from coal.

Mr Blood was the brains behind a $5 billion coal-to-oil project in the Latrobe Valley that was bought by Shell and Anglo American. It is designed to produce 70,000 barrels of oil a day.

The Australian Energy Corporation chairman said the tremendous amount of energy trapped in brown coal - coupled with gasification and geosequestration technology - provided a clean source of a range of hydrocarbons.

"There's no reason why Australia could not be totally self sustainable in petroleum products, or any other chemical product such as urea, from coal," he said. "We have got all the coal in the world here for goodness sake. It becomes the highest-quality fuel or diesel imaginable. Sasol in South Africa have been doing it since 1968, making 150,000 barrels a day."

Turning coal into diesel goes back to World War II, when besieged Germany used it to supplement its dwindling oil supplies. South Africa is by far the biggest user of the technology in what is a hangover from apartheid days when the country was concerned it would be locked out of world oil markets.

However, it hasn't been widely taken up despite the wide geographic spread of coal reserves, largely because it is expensive.

It also produces significantly more carbon than traditional petrol-diesel production and has been described as one of the most environmentally unfriendly means of producing oil.

Australia imports 550,000 barrels a day of oil and 1.3 million tonnes, or $300 million worth, of urea for fertiliser each year. The urea comes from the Middle East.

Gasification works by treating coal at very high temperature with a controlled amount of oxygen to produce a gas that can be converted to diesel. Nitrogen is added towards the end of the process to make urea. Mr Blood said once the reaction was established, it was self-propelling and the CO2 generated was easy to trap and then store.


Ends.

 

[cordelia]

Not to say i told you so or anything, but the market does not agree with either of you with the 11% gains just today. The projects that reach far beyond Australian boarders coupled with the current hype about the trial burn/ucg processes means that this stock may just continue to go up.

Im not too sure about the JV though, Im expecting some announcements outlining their intentions in the next few weeks.

Well that is encouraging..but its still going sideways for the moment and I would rather have my money doing something rather than sitting around waiting for something to happen. But that's me and I can be impatient.

 

[farout]

I'll add my little rant as well.

I think you should read my post again Djay, 'better alternatives'. Congrats on what was actually an 8% gain today by end of trading. It's not very wise to base stock performance on one day of trading but if that's what you want, my alternatives performed at an average of 14% gains today.

 

[Djayness]

I'll add my little rant as well.

I think you should read my post again Djay, 'better alternatives'. Congrats on what was actually an 8% gain today by end of trading. It's not very wise to base stock performance on one day of trading but if that's what you want, my alternatives performed at an average of 14% gains today.

Well of course at time of writing it was 11% but in any case if you feel there are better alternatives then im not in debate; I would love to hear them.

I am not basing the stock performance on one days trading, I actually provided reasoning for why I felt the stock was still of good value for the short and long term.

As a holder of GBG, MEE, CXY and GLX to name just a few, it is becoming increasingly difficult to keep up to date with all of the information in the iron ore/UCG industries. If you feel there are better alternatives (which you have stated) then by all means mention specifically why.

 

[desolator]

wowzers this stock is going crazy in terms of panic buying today, still running as well.. we might just see this bolt to the hillz soon.. if we can avoid to much profit taking next few days we might see 30c? thoughts?

still holding

 

[mick2006]

looks like UCG is back with a bang this afternoon, with relentless buying in CXY,MEE,LNC.

CXY has blown through 20-23c in half an hour on volume of close to 10 million in that space of time

 

[blehgg]

Along with GLX...

both gone crazy....

Awesome is what I can say..

CXY - 240

GLX - 165 NICE!!!

 

[Djayness]

Crazy buying today with buyers lining up, just insane.

Good to see such impressive gains with all the UCG stocks, looks like whatever one company announces just flows onto the sp of the others, i predict we will see some more of this madness with the coming of all the trial burns, lets all hold hands and hope its successful lol.

 

[james99]

Crazy buying today with buyers lining up, just insane.

Good to see such impressive gains with all the UCG stocks, looks like whatever one company announces just flows onto the sp of the others, i predict we will see some more of this madness with the coming of all the trial burns, lets all hold hands and hope its successful lol.

Djayness, I agree, but also like to make sure there are some unfundamentals. I have bought BLK (see thread) and would be interested in sharing details of other shares held by folk.

I disclose holdings in CXY.

 

[birdmanz]

I'll add my little rant as well.

I think you should read my post again Djay, 'better alternatives'. Congrats on what was actually an 8% gain today by end of trading. It's not very wise to base stock performance on one day of trading but if that's what you want, my alternatives performed at an average of 14% gains today.

all i can say about todays surge is "FAROUT"....lol
looking forward to announcements of jorc etc to see the sp move much further north in the coming weeks/months
Cheers
G

 

[Red Fatboy]

There has been a lot of debate on this thread(which does make for interesting reading) But for my way of thinking "The only way is up ,baby'' (sung to the tune of the song of the same name)

 

[cordelia]

Not to say i told you so or anything, but the market does not agree with either of you with the 11% gains just today. The projects that reach far beyond Australian boarders coupled with the current hype about the trial burn/ucg processes means that this stock may just continue to go up.

Im not too sure about the JV though, Im expecting some announcements outlining their intentions in the next few weeks.

I actually got back into CXY today @.195 because my buy criteria was met. So I was pleased to see some movement. I don't hold onto to shares for very long..its too boring. I like to be where the action is...

Good on you for having the perserverence

 

[james99]

Yes - it did didn't matter much - Mee, Cxy, Lnc, Blk, etc all excellent today. More importantly, even if oil falls to 100 - 110 a barrel, they will still be good, because the production break even point is much lower.

In UK, for example, tonight (today UK time) big oil is done, but small CSM (in this case Fortune with has a JV with Mpo in China) is up. All jolly good really.

Both Cxy and Blk to provide a resources report this quarter.

I disclose holdings (CXY and BLK)

 

[LittleMak]

Can someone please explain to me what is the go with the 5-6c options (CXYO) has at present? Can anyone just buy them? What happens when you buy them, can you convert say 60000 options @5c and turn those into 60000 shares for a purchase at 0.05c?

Cheers

LM