CVN - Carnarvon Energy

[Garpal Gumnut]

Interesting $500k get's bought up in the last minutes of trade yesterday, now this + and the ann is 'overdue' - going on there +'ve track record.

POE has also seen good volumes, and has finished above $6 last night

Is something brewing? Can anyone elaborate a touch more on what it all may mean ( From a technical standpoint )


Cheers.

I'll post 3 charts on CVN a monthly , weekly and daily, in candlestick format.

The monthly looks good with a nice uptrend on rising volume

The weekly shows a slowing in demand with last week ending on a pullback to .315 on lower volume than the previous week and this week too early to call. so it looks as if there is indecision.

The daily is a bit more concerning. That gap I mentioned in a previous post sticks out, and may close over. Todays bar is what I call a spinner, a doji, it opened and closed at .33 and found resistance at .335 on falling volume. I guess if I were a short term trader which I'm not , I'd consider a stop at .28 , which is an old resistance point in June. I'd then re-enter in the gap.

Long term traders would probably stay in at present.

Garpal

 

[1234]

Cheers Garpal.

The one thing I keep coming back to is this: The company/s have reached a level of production and success that eclipses both speculated and 'assumed' forecasts to date.

If the company had reached the current sp without the 1265bopd discovery @ L44-H I would agree, a ~.28/.29 pullback would be imminent. However, the fact that 1265 took the co to a level of self funded operation combined with the prospect of positive tests from L44G-D1 + L44G and further results from L44-H, everything seems to point in another direction.

I can see a slight gap back as punters become anxious and poke there $ elsewhere short term but also think the volumes will return in the afternoon on each day of trade. The downside to POE is 'we' can't catch the market napping. Everyone has to consolidate at the end of each day imo so they don't get caught like on the 21st.

Reading back over the recent ann's, we could be waiting a further week or ten days for any type of results to be released but I'm sure when they do, it will forge a new direction for CVN.

 

[jtb]

Gotta agree with Garpal here.

If you go back to when I was posting on this at 10c, the expected upgrade (which actually saw the resource slashed due to modern methods) from 4mmbbl to (my extrapolation) of 10 ish mmbbl was worth around 20c (100 mill MC) a share assuming $10 a bbl in ground.
We have since blown out the 450 million FPO on issue to 680 and despite the excellent results, the last stated reserve value was still only 3 mill bbl.

Assuming the original CVN announced total possible upside for the entire WB field and new volcanic structures of 25million odd bbl's then at present we are nearly fully valued for this 25 million bbl figure

More than 8 times the stated reserve.

Volcanics by definition are upthrust and busted ar$se ground so you can't just go 5km by 3km and come up with a figure like you can with a anticline.

I hope she goes to 50c (I reckon Ted would sell out to POE for that) but atm I'm out and recommend some caution with over enthusiasm as she's a bit ahead of herself at present imo.

About the middle of the gap is what I reckon presents value atm.

Cheers all

 

[resourcesman]

"Assuming the original CVN announced total possible upside for the entire WB field and new volcanic structures of 25million odd bbl's then at present we are nearly fully valued for this 25 million bbl figure"

JTB, you valued it using a $10 NPV per assumed barrel. If you assumed $20 NPV per barrel, which also wouldn't be over the top, you would get double that figure.

Agree with most of your other points, particularly in regards to the uncertainty of the volcanics, but that would have been taken into account when estimating reserves. There are also the other zones that havent yet been included

 

[tech/a]

It takes a lot of volume to blast a stock through resistance with a gap that big.
Climbing price on lower volume shows lack of supply.
Seems pretty close to ending its wave 3.

 

[jtb]

"Assuming the original CVN announced total possible upside for the entire WB field and new volcanic structures of 25million odd bbl's then at present we are nearly fully valued for this 25 million bbl figure"

JTB, you valued it using a $10 NPV per assumed barrel. If you assumed $20 NPV per barrel, which also wouldn't be over the top, you would get double that figure.

G'day mate,

Yes definately- but $10 a bbl for oil that hasn't been proved up yet is about as far as I personally would go at present.

Definately a lot of upside is possible in reserves but imo a lot has already been costed in.

She'll be valued at more than ARQ & TAP shortly.

Cheers

 

[1234]

Don't know about anyone else, but I'm miffed at the value of the latest Hartleys' rls out today??

What was the point of that?, apart from pointing out the bleeding obvious, anyone with half an interest in CVN is following the anns' - which have the same information contained.

They re-iterate there opinion 32-72 is undervalued, but they don't tell us what THEY believe the true value to be, based on current data??

The only upside; Last time Hartley's placed something to that effect it was followed two days later by a 30% increase in sp on a +'ve ann.

Is this a ploy to make Hartleys' look good and place credibility on there opinions, recommendations and valuations?

 

[INORE]

Hi 1234...yeah i just took it at as a revision to their last statement and that now CVN is self funding and earlier than expected where as b4 they valued them only if they became self funding. what i dont get is the huge range in valuation they give, i think they should have broken that down a bit more with a few if's and when's....perhaps CVN asked Hartleys to revise their evaluation report as it was done so recently and it may be some time b4 another key milestone is reached.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Hi 1234...yeah i just took it at as a revision to their last statement and that now CVN is self funding and earlier than expected where as b4 they valued them only if they became self funding. what i dont get is the huge range in valuation they give, i think they should have broken that down a bit more with a few if's and when's....perhaps CVN asked Hartleys to revise their evaluation report as it was done so recently and it may be some time b4 another key milestone is reached.

CVN seems to be holding its gains. I'll post some charts later tonight or over the weekend. Any more news on its fundamentals?

gg

 

[resourcesman]

looks as if POE management sound pretty confident about L44G and L44G-D1, based on what they said in their 2 Oct presentation. Something along the lines of "best oil shows encountered yet"... wasn't that what CVN said last time about the last well??

 

[1234]

Currently trading at 37c. !!

I must say i'm a touch suprised by the amount of activity today..

Wondering if it will pull back at end of day?? and where to..

 

[Caliente]

hi 1234. Doubt it will fall back. The key trading zone today is the 37/37.5 level.

What you're seeing is speculative accumulation on the back of a promising (readositive) upcoming announcement.

I've been watching the buying closely since Friday and there are significant parcels of new money coming into play here.

Watch this space - this week.

 

[INORE]

hope this doesnt come across too rampesque, but, i've been thinking about the eval that hartleys put on between 30-70c...and i beleive as the status of being self funding has been achieved that this share may/should comfortably get to the mid-point of this evaluation which is around 50c. Any thoughts?

 

[1234]

hope this doesnt come across too rampesque, but, i've been thinking about the eval that hartleys put on between 30-70c...and i beleive as the status of being self funding has been achieved that this share may/should comfortably get to the mid-point of this evaluation which is around 50c. Any thoughts?

( I'm thinking out loud here )

The Valuation is proportional to the amount of black stuff pumping from the ground, ( and imo ) combined with it's potential..

32c was based on now ( back then ) and 72c was based on 10,000 bopd in a couple of years. ( check the chart from Hartley's ) The range was based on a certain success rate, with certain flow & reserves in a cetain time frame..

Consider the now has gone up 80% ( in bopd terms ) been brought forward 4 months, and the vol has gone up ( potentially ) 30% then the Val could well be up 30% on the now ( 41.5c ) and that's back then.. ( following me )

BUT untill we get figures, reserves and 6 months down the track, who knows??

 

[MS+Tradesim]

looks as if POE management sound pretty confident about L44G and L44G-D1, based on what they said in their 2 Oct presentation. Something along the lines of "best oil shows encountered yet"... wasn't that what CVN said last time about the last well??

Hello resourceman...wondered if you could post a link to where you heard/read what POE presented. Went looking but couldn't find anything.


EDIT: Nah, skip that request. Found it.

 

[Caliente]

care to share ^_^
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[1234]

care to share ^_^
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www.carnarvon.com.au

sep 11 ann made mention of potential ( lost circulation ) but no indication as to 'best yet'. The levels were however, comparable to L44 ( 53 bbl's an hr, L44 was 57 bbl's an hr )

Either way, it's flowing oil

Drill would have been finished, and an indication of oil flow would have been known around Sep 14 ( according their ann ) for L44G-D1. SP made good gains in these days..

 

[resourcesman]

www.carnarvon.com.au

sep 11 ann made mention of potential ( lost circulation ) but no indication as to 'best yet'. The levels were however, comparable to L44 ( 53 bbl's an hr, L44 was 57 bbl's an hr )

Either way, it's flowing oil

Drill would have been finished, and an indication of oil flow would have been known around Sep 14 ( according their ann ) for L44G-D1. SP made good gains in these days..

come on, man, 1234, im not a ramper....... i was just occupied at work and only got home a short time ago........ heres the link ... around 5-10mins into it (forgot exactly where) there he talks about L44G and L44G-D1 having the best oil shows yet...... looks like good days for us all...enjoy!!

http://remotecontrol.jetstreammedia.com/14021

 

[1234]

come on, man, 1234, im not a ramper....... i was just occupied at work and only got home a short time ago........ heres the link ...
http://remotecontrol.jetstreammedia.com/14021

Gotta be careful 'round here, and I couldn't find it!!. Just covering ur back

What's with the TSX 2ngt??

 

[resourcesman]

lol just playing with u ...... i think its thanksgiving holiday so no TSX today.... too lazy to confirm tho