CVN - Carnarvon Energy

[ktrianta]

In my opinion and from my analysis only, I use the high at 80c made in May 2008 and the low at 23c in Nov 2008 and its return to 80c in May 2009. Its a U shaped chart. From a book I've read there is a chance that the projected price target is the high subtract the low, plus the high. In CVN's case it would be 80 - 23 = 57. Then, 57 + 80 = 137c or $1.37. So heres my shortish target that will probably be by the end of the year.

My analysis only. Have a plan if you want to play out this theory, but at your own risk. CVN is still very promising in my books!

Seem to recall that Garpal Gumnut had an Elliot wave target of around that amount some time prior to the meltdown.

Hope that you are on the money.

GG, any comment from your charts?

 

[quarky]

i did the same.
i jumped out yesterday, after holding for over 1.5 years.

damn. i jumped ship at 0.795
it's up to 0.83 right now.
definitely broke through resistance levels of 0.79 - 0.80
wish i had more patience and a crystal ball...
could have made a bit more.

wonder how far the ASX, POO and CVN can go, considering all the skeptical and cautious talk about the economy, etc.

 

[Boggo]

Bought at 41, sold at 58, bought again at 60, trailing with a stop of 10c below the previous close.

One view of it below...

Just my

(click to expand)

 

[KurwaJegoMac]

damn. i jumped ship at 0.795
it's up to 0.83 right now.
definitely broke through resistance levels of 0.79 - 0.80
wish i had more patience and a crystal ball...
could have made a bit more.

wonder how far the ASX, POO and CVN can go, considering all the skeptical and cautious talk about the economy, etc.

I made a similar mistake, jumping out a little early. But given the movement in price and the volume supporting it, I've jumped in again at 0.82 with a stop loss to cover me just in case.

Hopefully I don't make the same mistake and sell out too early Don't have a clue where it might end up, but given how much support there has been recently, it doesn't look like it's running out of steam anytime soon

 

[quarky]

Bought at 41, sold at 58, bought again at 60, trailing with a stop of 10c below the previous close.

One view of it below...

Just my

(click to expand)

whoah... $1.08+ predictions
(yeah, obviously DYOR, etc.etc.)
in that case, i better jump in now and put my house on it, for a huge take on it and then ride it out until next year.

i'm just really surprised how well this has gone....but seeing the amount of buyers and volume for it, this looks like it may just find a good support around 0.78 - 0.82 (just my feeling. i don't have charts to back this up)


*sigh*... hope for a retrace, before jumping back in.
otherwise, look for another oil stock to buy up...but i can't find one as good as CVN.

 

[magnale]

We know it is a really good stock ...why not leave it there for another year or two ? Just my view ,and I've held this stock for several years , and will cash it when it really has reached its potential

 

[Miner]

We know it is a really good stock ...why not leave it there for another year or two ? Just my view ,and I've held this stock for several years , and will cash it when it really has reached its potential

Dear Magnale

It is so wonderful comment you made. I looked into the begining of this thread. Ironically CVN thread was started on 5th June 2006 exactly three years back by YOgi In OZ. I have reattached the document Yogi In Oz provided three years ago. CVN was ruling at 5 cents. It came down before and went up again.

I am sure some expert chartists in ASF can present a similar full circle chart for CVN accumulating historical data


But now I am holding it after buying at 40 cents and not complainnig .
I wish you are right as history repeats itself

 

[KurwaJegoMac]

Wow the stock is really launching today touched 0.860 with little pullback... Interesting to see if the stock stays supported at the .80 mark over the next week.

Loving these volumes right now!!

 

[Boggo]

Wow the stock is really launching today touched 0.860 with little pullback... Interesting to see if the stock stays supported at the .80 mark over the next week.

Loving these volumes right now!!

Probably going to see a few Friday arvo profit takers in the next hour to close, usual stuff on stocks that are on a run up.

 

[Rob 17]

This stock is doing very well. Volume has been huge. The chart looks great.

If we get some good news early next week i think this one might give $1 a shot.

DYOR

 

[KurwaJegoMac]

Probably going to see a few Friday arvo profit takers in the next hour to close, usual stuff on stocks that are on a run up.

You were spot on. Stock pulled back to 0.830. Still a great amount. Let's hope this trend continues

 

[JTLP]

Bought at 41, sold at 58, bought again at 60, trailing with a stop of 10c below the previous close.

One view of it below...

Just my

(click to expand)

Probably going to see a few Friday arvo profit takers in the next hour to close, usual stuff on stocks that are on a run up.

Thanks for the chart and great call.

Although CVN is in blue sky territory a pullback was always expected (especially with people's uncertainties to hold over the weekend + big run up). Still performing wonderfully though and high volume pushing CVN up is always good to see. I maintain my view that a substantial holder notice or 2 can't be far off.

Oil has to stay at nice levels though. The rising AUD could pose a bit of a problem to the bottom line (although low opex offsets this). Also...the rising revenue factor and SRB come into play...so it may work in our favour.

We will also have to monitor TSV to see how their Warro well goes. 2.5% royalty would be very handy. This money could also come tax free to us as CVN seeks to offset losses it made back in the old days...

 

[Motogoon]

Man, some bold predictions being made on this one, is it just me or does it not seem a bit overcooked to anyone else?!

If you look at a 2 year chart its sufferred some pretty mean pullbacks, .75 to .35, .80 to .25. And that was in a much friendlier economic enviroment with oil at twice the price.

Sure theres been more discoverys but still seems a bit of a stretch to say its gonna just keep on skyrocketing up.

Thats just my opinion tho & i'm often wrong so maybe just keep on buying it up!

 

[ktrianta]

Man, some bold predictions being made on this one, is it just me or does it not seem a bit overcooked to anyone else?!

If you look at a 2 year chart its sufferred some pretty mean pullbacks, .75 to .35, .80 to .25. And that was in a much friendlier economic enviroment with oil at twice the price.

Sure theres been more discoverys but still seems a bit of a stretch to say its gonna just keep on skyrocketing up.

Thats just my opinion tho & i'm often wrong so maybe just keep on buying it up!

Agree that a pullback is inevitable. It just can't keep going like this.
Still waiting for a blow off top to $1.10- $1.20 before I consider selling, otherwise I am happy to hold long term.

 

[KurwaJegoMac]

Man, some bold predictions being made on this one, is it just me or does it not seem a bit overcooked to anyone else?!

If you look at a 2 year chart its sufferred some pretty mean pullbacks, .75 to .35, .80 to .25. And that was in a much friendlier economic enviroment with oil at twice the price.

Sure theres been more discoverys but still seems a bit of a stretch to say its gonna just keep on skyrocketing up.

Thats just my opinion tho & i'm often wrong so maybe just keep on buying it up!

That's a good point, however I think it's worth taking a look at the volumes - with regards to the 0.80 to 0.25 pullback I assume you're referring to the period May 08 to Dec 08 roughly? At its 0.80 peak on May 16th, weekly volume stood at about 24.71 mil. In the fortnight leading up to the peak, weekly volume remained at roughly the same levels.

Fast forward to today, volumes in the past few weeks have oscillated between 20 - 40 mil. Given that the weekly volumes have almost doubled and have remained relatively sustained, I think that's an encouraging sign that perhaps this time there's enough support to remain above the 0.80 mark a little longer and perhaps even push on higher.

That's just my and as always, DYOR.

 

[magnale]

That's a good point, however I think it's worth taking a look at the volumes - with regards to the 0.80 to 0.25 pullback I assume you're referring to the period May 08 to Dec 08 roughly? At its 0.80 peak on May 16th, weekly volume stood at about 24.71 mil. In the fortnight leading up to the peak, weekly volume remained at roughly the same levels.

Fast forward to today, volumes in the past few weeks have oscillated between 20 - 40 mil. Given that the weekly volumes have almost doubled and have remained relatively sustained, I think that's an encouraging sign that perhaps this time there's enough support to remain above the 0.80 mark a little longer and perhaps even push on higher.
Yes I so agree with all you have written

 

[baboon]

i did the same.
i jumped out yesterday, after holding for over 1.5 years.
took a handsome gain, but had to risk a lot of money for it.
besides, i was wanting to enter the real estate...but CVN kept me out of that, due to the pool of $$$ i had in there... my best, and only, performing stock in my portfolio (which i'm losing 60-80% of value )

waiting for that re-trace...




i've had a SELL for 0.795 for a few days and found it hard to sell.
finally, it went through yesterday...and i knew something is on the horizon, i.e. new oil discoveries, POO, etc.
taking that into account, i've always noticed mid-year, profit-takers sell and slow down the market. so, hoping that this would happen...i sold off my CVN parcel.
but i think i might have jumped ship too early...but that's my 20-20 hindsight, as i was getting nervous that the ASX broke 4000+ points and oil was creeping up higher, that something had to give for that 'inevitable' market correction that some talk about.

still...i'm keen on this stock and would jump in, when it drops to about 0.70 - 0.70 for another long term investment.

i really wished i had the guts to jump in at 0.23 several months ago.

Its really interesting that last comment of yours. I go through that feeling so many times. In hindsight 0.23 was a big opportunity but at the time you would have thought it was going lower, maybe to 21c to fill that evil gap!!

I try not to get too caught up with this cos it does my head in!

Heres a thing, do you have the guts to jump in at 83c+??? or even if it drops to 70c do you still have the guts? What if next week it goes to $1+? If that were too happen you'd bang your head again! I'm trying not to let these things affect me but its hard at times!

Good luck anyways.

 

[KurwaJegoMac]

Its really interesting that last comment of yours. I go through that feeling so many times. In hindsight 0.23 was a big opportunity but at the time you would have thought it was going lower, maybe to 21c to fill that evil gap!!

I try not to get too caught up with this cos it does my head in!

Heres a thing, do you have the guts to jump in at 83c+??? or even if it drops to 70c do you still have the guts? What if next week it goes to $1+? If that were too happen you'd bang your head again! I'm trying not to let these things affect me but its hard at times!

Good luck anyways.

That's a good point. Sometimes a stock doesn't retrace and you certainly don't want to be left going "what if...". But I guess it comes down to your risk tolerance and risk management procedures. Personally, if I think a stock has potential I take the plunge - even if it's hitting new highs just like CVN is. Given great fundamentals, the discovery of the oil wells, great volume and strong support over .80c, this to me is a no-brainer. If I've made a mistake and timed this one badly and the trend reverses, so be it. My stop losses and trailing sells should handle a reversal.

Disclaimer: As always DYOR. Also, what I've written is not a stab at quarky - everyone has their own trading plan and risk management guidelines, my post reflects mine. I bought into CVN at 0.820 on Friday - good or bad move, time will tell

 

[magnale]

I think KurwaJegoMac has made such good points : well run company, etc . It will of course have profit takers.... but on the whole it eventually returns. I suppose having been in it for some time I now don't worry too much if it goes down . I didn't though buy more when it was 23cents ( I wasn't sure if even good companies would survive this global crisis! ) My thoughts ..good luck !

 

[hoppo]

Hi there, we bought these stocks 18 years ago when they were 10 cents and they just nose dived the week after we bought them. Now we are glad we just hung on to them.