doogie_goes_off
disbelieve if you can
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Yep GG, see my postr on "Potential trend reversals". I think now that 44c will become the new support.
CVN - Carnarvon Energy
- Thread starter yogi-in-oz
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Well ive picked it like a dirty nose so far:nuts:
48.5c acting as resistance.
If there is some news coming and its good we should see this easily push through 48.5c.
I base this of the current amount of buyer vs sellers and also the hurricane that is bareing down on the Gulf of Mexico.
If it looks like threatening oil production, we could see a spike in oil prices.
Good new could see this run to between 52.5c and up to 58c imo depending on the news of course
There is a gap to be filled up to 60.5c also
7day MA crossing over the 21day MA and the sp getting close to trading over the 50 day MA.
48.5c acting as resistance.
If there is some news coming and its good we should see this easily push through 48.5c.
I base this of the current amount of buyer vs sellers and also the hurricane that is bareing down on the Gulf of Mexico.
If it looks like threatening oil production, we could see a spike in oil prices.
Good new could see this run to between 52.5c and up to 58c imo depending on the news of course
There is a gap to be filled up to 60.5c also
7day MA crossing over the 21day MA and the sp getting close to trading over the 50 day MA.
Attachments
Director sold today... Hmm, same Director who sold just prior to SP heading south a few months ago.
IF the ann is no good tonight, he SHOULD go for insider trading, and should be sacked - or thrown off the board.. It could be reverse psycology, Teddy having a word in his ear?? Who knows. I watch with baited breath all the gains of the last week fly out the doors in there millions.
IF the ann is no good tonight, he SHOULD go for insider trading, and should be sacked - or thrown off the board.. It could be reverse psycology, Teddy having a word in his ear?? Who knows. I watch with baited breath all the gains of the last week fly out the doors in there millions.
CVN has been consistently gapping up for the last week...with rising volume as well. I suspect we may have some substantial buying happening...hopefully a nice co that will stay and not dump them all.
The HSBC dump happened yesty arvo...they would be pretty keen to dump now...a few raised eyebrows perhaps?
What do you make of the volume GG? Noticing any signs?
Thanks also for the updates Nukey Boy
The HSBC dump happened yesty arvo...they would be pretty keen to dump now...a few raised eyebrows perhaps?
What do you make of the volume GG? Noticing any signs?
Thanks also for the updates Nukey Boy
Garpal Gumnut
Ross Island Hotel
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CVN has been consistently gapping up for the last week...with rising volume as well. I suspect we may have some substantial buying happening...hopefully a nice co that will stay and not dump them all.
The HSBC dump happened yesty arvo...they would be pretty keen to dump now...a few raised eyebrows perhaps?
What do you make of the volume GG? Noticing any signs?
Thanks also for the updates Nukey Boy
Looking at the charts I see resistance at 50c. There is increased volume today but it closed closer to the low on higher volume.
It may retrace, but I'm confident it will challenge 50c, if it goes beyond then who knows.
I still have the same ****load of cvn having sold at 45 and bought back in at 37.
gg
Attachments
Thanks GG,
I feel the same about 50. Provided we get flows we should be able to easily surpass this...and hopefully this will enact as some sort of future support.
I would like to see some consolidation in the mid 50's though...incase the world does fall over and we have a better landing point then the 30's
BTW...has anyone had any luck with e-mailing the company? I have tried twice before but had donuts luck. I would like some more information on new blocks L52/50 & L53/50 i believe (when they will be awarded) as well as some info on the expansion in S.E Asia.
I feel the same about 50. Provided we get flows we should be able to easily surpass this...and hopefully this will enact as some sort of future support.
I would like to see some consolidation in the mid 50's though...incase the world does fall over and we have a better landing point then the 30's
BTW...has anyone had any luck with e-mailing the company? I have tried twice before but had donuts luck. I would like some more information on new blocks L52/50 & L53/50 i believe (when they will be awarded) as well as some info on the expansion in S.E Asia.
doogie_goes_off
disbelieve if you can
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"Im looking at a 54c target, it has been cheap buying in recent weeks. We may need two annoucements to see this target as there is a 'shoulder' at 50c although weaker than that at 55c, any push through 55c could see a breakout. I'm very happy to hold at the moment."
My quote from the other thread.
I think we all see the same level of concern at 50c, needs positive news to break this, could be the new support if it does so and I still stand by '2 announcements could push through resistance level at 55c then a breakout would be likely'
My quote from the other thread.
I think we all see the same level of concern at 50c, needs positive news to break this, could be the new support if it does so and I still stand by '2 announcements could push through resistance level at 55c then a breakout would be likely'
Don't hold your breath about good report guys.
The fact that a director dumped a million on the market just as the price was going up nicely to 48-50c range, and so destroyed any further short term advancement suggests to me that the ann will be average only.
He would have to be the biggest idiot (appart from selling sub 45) a day or so before any announcement since obvious insider trading would apply.
Also a stellar ann would surely caused him to restrain himself and get a much better price on the inevitable spike.
Lets face it .. the inside men know what will be contained in the imminent release well before us mere investors.
The only hope is that he was desperately short of money for whatever reason and had to sell.
As usual CVN is late in releasing as they always are .. still I hold for the long term.
It defies logic and belief that a cashed up company producing 5000 bopd can be trading at these sub 50c prices.
Rob
The fact that a director dumped a million on the market just as the price was going up nicely to 48-50c range, and so destroyed any further short term advancement suggests to me that the ann will be average only.
He would have to be the biggest idiot (appart from selling sub 45) a day or so before any announcement since obvious insider trading would apply.
Also a stellar ann would surely caused him to restrain himself and get a much better price on the inevitable spike.
Lets face it .. the inside men know what will be contained in the imminent release well before us mere investors.
The only hope is that he was desperately short of money for whatever reason and had to sell.
As usual CVN is late in releasing as they always are .. still I hold for the long term.
It defies logic and belief that a cashed up company producing 5000 bopd can be trading at these sub 50c prices.
Rob
I think CVN should be queried about what's going on, given what happened after the same Director's 1.5 million sale in May, and now he's stopped recovery in its tracks. I've emailed CVN on this matter but no response.
If bad news comes out soon I hope holders kick up a fuss and not just accept being treated with disdain. Maybe it's just margin calls but until he's stopped selling we are up the proverbial creek with this.
If bad news comes out soon I hope holders kick up a fuss and not just accept being treated with disdain. Maybe it's just margin calls but until he's stopped selling we are up the proverbial creek with this.
Hmm. I'm in two minds on the sell order.
That Ted bought, more than once in the low to mid 30's was promising. That showed some comfort in this market..
To have a mil dumped shortly after confuses the matter, and gets me double guessing myself - and the market.. I even consider this a ploy - taking the predictability and manipulation out of the stock from the Seagull traders... Shaking the apples from the tree, maybe.. .. If it comes off - nice work CVN.
I'm still in for another 6-12 and will take what comes when I find it time to get out - made that decision long ago, just have to give them a chance to do what they said they would..... They haven't let us down yet..
That Ted bought, more than once in the low to mid 30's was promising. That showed some comfort in this market..
To have a mil dumped shortly after confuses the matter, and gets me double guessing myself - and the market.. I even consider this a ploy - taking the predictability and manipulation out of the stock from the Seagull traders... Shaking the apples from the tree, maybe.. .. If it comes off - nice work CVN.
I'm still in for another 6-12 and will take what comes when I find it time to get out - made that decision long ago, just have to give them a chance to do what they said they would..... They haven't let us down yet..
I'm not concerned with the director selling right now. It seems a logical time if he has a good enough reason - at least he didn't sell on the way down recently as that could have sparked capitulation. He waited for a bounce and sold into the buying - fair enough.
I'm not sure that the SP is as announcement driven as it used to be nowadays anyway.
There's the inevitable build up pre ann but there's no telling which way this will go even after a good result.
Take a look at the last 2 results posted after the price had already come right back to 50c...
The first result was exceptional in that they were drilling in a new location targeting the main zone when they intercepted yet another new zone and put this on production at 1245bopd.
Then the followup ann saw the second hole from the same drillpad tap into the main zone and is producing 2250bopd.
Two outstanding results confirming the prolific nature of the reserves in the area - and yet the SP went down further!
It seems we can blame JPMorgan's unwinding at the time as the catalyst for the slide and their selling swamped the buyers who were getting stopped out every other day. Along with a falling oil price and negative market sentiment those 2 ann's were virtually redundant.
Now we wait for results from the 3rd leg from this drillpad - and another look at Wichian Buri.
I think it's fair to say the market is hoping for a good ann.
This time we have an uptrend preceding it. We may see a small selloff regardless of the results but I wouldn't expect it to last.
Conditions seem to have changed for now - no more overhang from major seller, oil has found it's feet as has the market, and the SP is going back up from oversold.
We've already had our 2 good anns which would have put a floor under the price around 50c.
If they can get 3 for 3 from this multiwell pad then that will be spectacular, but the fact they are already producing around 3500bopd from it is enough assurance for me.
I'm not sure that the SP is as announcement driven as it used to be nowadays anyway.
There's the inevitable build up pre ann but there's no telling which way this will go even after a good result.
Take a look at the last 2 results posted after the price had already come right back to 50c...
The first result was exceptional in that they were drilling in a new location targeting the main zone when they intercepted yet another new zone and put this on production at 1245bopd.
Then the followup ann saw the second hole from the same drillpad tap into the main zone and is producing 2250bopd.
Two outstanding results confirming the prolific nature of the reserves in the area - and yet the SP went down further!
It seems we can blame JPMorgan's unwinding at the time as the catalyst for the slide and their selling swamped the buyers who were getting stopped out every other day. Along with a falling oil price and negative market sentiment those 2 ann's were virtually redundant.
Now we wait for results from the 3rd leg from this drillpad - and another look at Wichian Buri.
I think it's fair to say the market is hoping for a good ann.
This time we have an uptrend preceding it. We may see a small selloff regardless of the results but I wouldn't expect it to last.
Conditions seem to have changed for now - no more overhang from major seller, oil has found it's feet as has the market, and the SP is going back up from oversold.
We've already had our 2 good anns which would have put a floor under the price around 50c.
If they can get 3 for 3 from this multiwell pad then that will be spectacular, but the fact they are already producing around 3500bopd from it is enough assurance for me.
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Can't be bothered posting a chart...
IMO, last 3 days indicate a top from a VSA perspective (maybe only short-term), lower highs, later intra-day selloffs and weak closes. A good announcement could easily counteract this, but IMO, current short term outlook seems weak. One positive is yesterday and today is lower volume so may just be short-term traders jumping out on resistance, making it IMO less probable that a sustained fall in sp will occur. I don't set targets so I won't predict where I think it might go from here. Just without good news, I don't think this rally will extend. Would love to be wrong.
IMO, last 3 days indicate a top from a VSA perspective (maybe only short-term), lower highs, later intra-day selloffs and weak closes. A good announcement could easily counteract this, but IMO, current short term outlook seems weak. One positive is yesterday and today is lower volume so may just be short-term traders jumping out on resistance, making it IMO less probable that a sustained fall in sp will occur. I don't set targets so I won't predict where I think it might go from here. Just without good news, I don't think this rally will extend. Would love to be wrong.
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Anyone think theres of a chance of recovery, they're making decent money aren't they?
Fat prophets were still recommending to buy when sp was up around 70-80 mark. Cocked that up didn't they.
I'm about ready to get out of this one, the whole sharemarket altogether actually!!
Fat prophets were still recommending to buy when sp was up around 70-80 mark. Cocked that up didn't they.
I'm about ready to get out of this one, the whole sharemarket altogether actually!!
Nice call, MS + Tradesim
Looks like it is heading for a retest of 34.5c, coincident will oil testing $US100.
There are also currency considerations. On one hand, the drop in the $A will have mitigated the drop in the $US oil price. On the other, foreign investors who are not currency hedged could be dumping $A investments.
I guess the fundamentals will eventually prevail, but anything can happen in the meantime. Good money management is essential if you don't want to lose your shirt!
Looks like it is heading for a retest of 34.5c, coincident will oil testing $US100.
There are also currency considerations. On one hand, the drop in the $A will have mitigated the drop in the $US oil price. On the other, foreign investors who are not currency hedged could be dumping $A investments.
I guess the fundamentals will eventually prevail, but anything can happen in the meantime. Good money management is essential if you don't want to lose your shirt!
Making money isn't the issue. There's plenty of that..!
Satisfying the result driven market is, especially now..
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No bad news came but he seems to have known to jump ship before the price plunged again. Does seem a bit dodgy.
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I don't think it is so much that CVN might be in trouble, rather the market is down in general. All the miners and oil stocks have taken a hit and each slip a little more each day.
