Current returns for 2008/09 financial year?

[jono1887]

Hi,

I just started trading around October last year... (after i turned 18 so i could open a trading account)

Anyways, I was just wondering how people are going returns wise in this current economic situation. I read that any returns currently are good as most people have made a loss... I for one have managed to make a considerable return so far - beginners luck perhaps?

I've also read that the best traders such as Buffet and Soros are only able to get returns of about 80% a year. Has anyone in these forums achieved over 50% returns in a financial year??

 

[So_Cynical]

Re: Current Returns for 08-09 Financial Year

Hi,

I just started trading around October last year... (after i turned 18 so i could open a trading account)

I for one have managed to make a considerable return so far - beginners luck perhaps?

As i have said many many times...luck both good and bad is all timing.

October was the best time to buy almost anything in 08

Did u buy gold stocks in Oct ? or other miners ?

 

[jono1887]

Re: Current Returns for 08-09 Financial Year

As i have said many many times...luck both good and bad is all timing.

October was the best time to buy almost anything in 08

Did u buy gold stocks in Oct ? or other miners ?

Actually no, my first trade was MQG at 28.86 and sold at 32.48 a week later...
I only made 6% from this trade. Since then, ive made a total return of 54% from my 25k investment.
I was just wondering if these returns are normal or have i just been
incredibly lucky??

 

[Mr J]

Re: Current Returns for 08-09 Financial Year

I've also read that the best traders such as Buffet and Soros are only able to get returns of about 80% a year. Has anyone in these forums achieved over 50% returns in a financial year??

Their numbers are meaningless compared to our levels, and Buffet isn't really a trader. He certainly doesn't average anything anywhere near 80% a year (I've heard 20% as the figure thrown around). A small, independent trader has the potential to achieve far greater returns.

Anyways, I was just wondering how people are going returns wise in this current economic situation.

For many traders I assume it would have been an excellent time. Traders profit through movement in price, and what better opportunity than a crash?

I was just wondering if these returns are normal or have i just been
incredibly lucky??

You may have over-performed, you may have under-performed. Nobody could give you reasonable indication of what you should expect. There are many ways to trade, and greatly varying levels of performance among similar trading styles.

54%? If you're not disappointed with it, then you should be satisfied.

Has anyone in these forums achieved over 50% returns in a financial year??

While 50% isn't anything to sneeze at, it's certainly not uncommon. Variance alone assures that this will be achieved regularly, and it really doesn't take much to achieve more than that based on expectation alone. I'd be surprised if 1000%+ wasn't achievable in expectation alone, depending on account size. Don't take my word for it though, I've just seen many people vastly underestimate the earning potential of similar activities, and if anything trading is more profitable.

 

[Nero64]

Re: Current Returns for 08-09 Financial Year

Since then, ive made a total return of 54% from my 25k investment

Where did you get that sort of money to start with as an 18 year old.

Did you start an apprenticeship at 14 or something?

 

[jono1887]

Re: Current Returns for 08-09 Financial Year

Where did you get that sort of money to start with as an 18 year old.

Did you start an apprenticeship at 14 or something?

10k of it was mine from part-time work at kfc, pizza hut ect... the rest of it
was a interest free loan from parents.

 

[Aussiest]

Re: Current Returns for 08-09 Financial Year

Actually no, my first trade was MQG at 28.86 and sold at 32.48 a week later...
I only made 6% from this trade. Since then, ive made a total return of 54% from my 25k investment.
I was just wondering if these returns are normal or have i just been
incredibly lucky??

You did enter the market at a very low point. Did you do any analysis before you bought those shares? Were your decisions based on anything other than a whim?

 

[Nero64]

Re: Current Returns for 08-09 Financial Year

Hey Johnno,

I read your other post, what Uni you going to and what subjects you doing.

I went to Uni once. I like to think I got something useful out of it.

The loan was nice from your parents. Learning money management and investing early is a great start in life.

 

[So_Cynical]

Re: Current Returns for 08-09 Financial Year

Actually no, my first trade was MQG at 28.86 and sold at 32.48 a week later...
I only made 6% from this trade. Since then, ive made a total return of 54% from my 25k investment.
I was just wondering if these returns are normal or have i just been
incredibly lucky??

Some what lucky...certainly not incredibly lucky

Incredibly lucky would of been buying MRE, IAU, MDL, LGL at there Oct lows and selling now at over 100% profit.

 

[helicart]

Re: Current Returns for 08-09 Financial Year

if you can make >30%pa every year for 5 years, go start your own fund....or take your results to any managed fund and they'll give you a job.

and you need to do it with a reasonable reward / risk ratio..... if you don't know how to measure this, then google expectancy, sharpe ratio, sortino ratio.

understanding reward/risk is important to predict when your 30%pa profits are going to blow up.

 

[Mr J]

if you can make >30%pa every year for 5 years

It depends how his strategy scales. 30% on 25k is unlikely to be similar to 30% on much larger amounts.

 

[jono1887]

Re: Current Returns for 08-09 Financial Year

You did enter the market at a very low point. Did you do any analysis before you bought those shares? Were your decisions based on anything other than a whim?

Well, I dont do any technical analysis... i just read the news papers and stuff from bloomberg, ive been following it for a while before i started, and look at the graphs of price movements... when i think that prices are as low as they'll get or that there is alot higher potential in a stock, i make a purchase.

Hey Johnno,

I read your other post, what Uni you going to and what subjects you doing.

I went to Uni once. I like to think I got something useful out of it.

The loan was nice from your parents. Learning money management and investing early is a great start in life.

Im at UQ, taking double degree of Arts/Medicine, but im majoring in economics for my arts deg.

Some what lucky...certainly not incredibly lucky

Incredibly lucky would of been buying MRE, IAU, MDL, LGL at there Oct lows and selling now at over 100% profit.

Currently i only trade safe stocks... ive only traded with MQG, RIO, BHP, FMG and FXJ so far.... bought RIO after that massive one day crash some time in november last year, same with FMG in december and FXJ after its capital raising earlier this year... other than that, i just trade fluctuations in MQG and BHP which are safer bets IMO.

 

[Aussiest]

Re: Current Returns for 08-09 Financial Year

when i think that prices are as low as they'll get or that there is alot higher potential in a stock, i make a purchase.

But, you need to have a reason for believing there is a lot more "upside" potential in a stock. Eg, does it have a good balance sheet? Don't just look at a chart and believe that it has been at XXX, so it is likely to go there again.

Maybe read the MQG thread here to learn more about this group. Also, have a read of the BNB thread, as many liken it's business model to MQG. Personally, i would stay away from this stock, but that is just my take

Congratulations on the medicine degree, you must be a pretty bright kid

 

[helicart]

Re: Current Returns for 08-09 Financial Year

It depends how his strategy scales. 30% on 25k is unlikely to be similar to 30% on much larger amounts.

true, let alone the regulations.....but a private fund with less than 20 members is another story...scale wouldn't be a problem up to 10m (R<2%) on the US and UK markets.....plus scale is more of a problem when the strategy is long term investment with high exposure most of the time, larger positions have to be adjusted...trading smartly rarely sees more than 20% of your capital on low leverage in the market at once...

Im at UQ, taking double degree of Arts/Medicine, but im majoring in economics for my arts deg.

.

did you get into med via the yr 12 provisional sub quota?

if so, then you have the brains to trade a lot smarter than you are now....though maybe not the right mindset......you have to think like a dull boring rigid dispassionate scientist....once you let intellectual cockiness get in the way, you'll blow up....

you want to do some serious reading on stats and money management....or you'll blow up within 2 years. am sure others here can recommend 6 books...

 

[Mr J]

if so, then you have the brains to trade a lot smarter than you are now....though maybe not the right mindset.

With respect to the poster, there are a lot of intelligent people out there who are very foolish when it comes to a gambling activity. I would say most people are incapable, perhaps due to lack of effort or not being able to adjust their thought-process. I think it's the latter, as traders have to suppress natural human behaviour which becomes a liability in trading. Humans lack discipline, are ruled by emotions, are results-oriented, look one step ahead rather than five, only see a general picture etc. It's hard to change one's behaviour, and how many people here will say that trading hasn't changed them in some way?

 

[helicart]

With respect to the poster, there are a lot of intelligent people out there who are very foolish when it comes to a gambling activity. I would say most people are incapable, perhaps due to lack of effort or not being able to adjust their thought-process.

which is why I recommended a trader think like a scientist.....
the story of James Simons' Renaissance Technologies should be taken on board by anyone serious about trading.....they don't generally hire people from finance backgrounds, preferring science, stats, and maths disciplines.

 

[jono1887]

Re: Current Returns for 08-09 Financial Year

did you get into med via the yr 12 provisional sub quota?

if so, then you have the brains to trade a lot smarter than you are now....though maybe not the right mindset......you have to think like a dull boring rigid dispassionate scientist....once you let intellectual cockiness get in the way, you'll blow up....

you want to do some serious reading on stats and money management....or you'll blow up within 2 years. am sure others here can recommend 6 books...

yep, i got into that provisional subquota thing....

could you elaborate on how i could be trading smarter?? any tips or advice would be greatly appreciated!!

What books would be good to start off with??

 

[jono1887]

Re: Current Returns for 08-09 Financial Year

Variance alone assures that this will be achieved regularly, and it really doesn't take much to achieve more than that based on expectation alone. I'd be surprised if 1000%+ wasn't achievable in expectation alone, depending on account size. Don't take my word for it though, I've just seen many people vastly underestimate the earning potential of similar activities, and if anything trading is more profitable.

what do you mean by on expectation alone??
1000%!!!! who has been able to achieve those figures??

 

[Mr J]

By that I mean without needing favourable variance (i.e. luck). Returns will vary greatly depending one timeframe, effort, skill etc. I'm sure 1000% has been done many times. Probably often not by skill, or skill alone, but done all the same.

 

[tech/a]

If your nett worth is $1mill and your trading 10% of that then having positions that could potentially return over 100% would have you labelled as a trading Maverick.

Extreme returns are often found from smaller accounts and relative to funds in the account.
Techtrader had return on investment over 1000% over the 5 yrs it was in the 2002-2007 Bull market.
$30,000 to $360,000 at one time its equity peak was $439,000.
All traded as an exercise on "The Chartist" Still is but is dormant currently.

Only mention it as its a record of having achieved "crazy" returns.