CUL - Cullen Resources

Guys just so we don't get carried away and loose sight of the fundamentals, regardless of the volumes and the trading here's what value I see in the company again for everyone to see





Mkt Structure

Shares
475m
Mkt Cap @ 5c = $25m Current
Mkt Cap @ 10c = $50m Target 1
Mkt Cap @ 15c = $75m Target 2
Mkt Cap @ 20c = $100m Upside


Cash
$2m not alot, but nearly all of its projects are funded by JV's so it doesn't need cash



Projects



Catho Well Iron Ore, 30% Carried, West Pilbara
JORC 68Mt@55.4%Fe
Now CUL's main project is joint ventured to Australian Premium Iron which is jointly owned by AQA and Multi Billion dollar steel mills, they are firming up a large porject in the West Pilbara and are currently doing feasibility studies and although CUL's project is smallish it still represents 1/4th of the total project and as such will get into production, importantly CUL's deposit contains lower impurities and thus is required to blend with the other deposits
AQA/API have very very deep pockets and backed by the US steel Mills, funding and offtake will not be a problem,

Valuation
RHI 40m shares @ $2.50 = $100m, its asset 20% of 135Mt@58.5%Fe = Net 15.795Mt Fe, at $100m = EV of $6.33/ Fe t

So if we give CUL the same $6.33/ Fe t = 30% 68Mt@55.4%Fe = 11.3Mt's Fe = $71.5m = 15c CUL

Now the mian points are
1. This was a first pass JORC from 1 of 4 target areas, a look at CUL's ground position suggests some of RHI's Cardo Bore deposit extends into CUL's ground

2. API is backed by AQA and Multi Billion Dollar US Steel Mills who will provide funding and offtake

3. A feasibilty study is underway

4. A comparison to RHI suggest CUl is worth 15c on this asset alone!


Wyloo Dome Iron Ore, 20% Free Carried, West Pilbara
This project is in a JV with FMG, thats right Fortescue Metals Group, they are beginning exploration for Iron ore this qtr! The project is adjacent to Hamersley's 225Mt@62.1%Fe Metawandy Deposit
HUGE SPEC Appeal!


Gun Barrel Nickel, 25% Free Carried, W.A.
BHP is drilling 7 diamond holes in search of Nickel, the mkt will love the BHP link


Iriwn Bore and Mt Tate Nickel, 30%-35% Free Carried, W.A.
IGO one of the most famous mid cap Nickel players is exploring here for Nickel in a JV, again the mkt will love the IGO link


Forrestania Nickel, 20% Free Carried, W.A.
HNR most who like nickel will be familiar with the HNR story, their directors are famous for discoveries and its very good to see their main project is with CUL,


Gunbarrel Gold, 30%-35% Free Carried, W.A.
Newmount is exploring for Gold here


Duchess IOCGU, 30% Free Carried, Mt Isa Qld
MEP Minatatour are exploring for Cu-Au U and IOCGU type structures here although they are mainly working on Tunkilia with HLX



Uranium Projects Uranium, Some 30% JV's most 100% owned, W.A. S.A. and N.T.
Has about 40 liceneces in W.A. S.A. and N.T., could easily spin these off into a new IPO, I'd say they're worth 2c-4c to the company alone.



Summary

- The main Iron Ore porject worth 15c
- FMG JV adds 1c spec appeal
- BHP JV adds 2c spec appeal
- Lots of other JV's working hard to make a discovery, adds another 1c appeal
- The Uranium projects are worth 2c-4c in a spin off form

Total Value I see = 15c - 25c

i think today's jump and dump was all play by day traders, otherwise why else would u dump be4 closing? never the less the stock is still undervalued, what we really need now is to get a big broking firm to do a valuation on this, and put a price target on it, then we'll really be kicking.

It all depends who was doing the buying and the selling and at what times. When did most of the lemmings come in? My guess is above 7.3 cents. The lemmings haven't sold yet. Another guess is that 'clever' daytraders bought this under 7.3 cents and sold above 7.5 cents. So who will be tomorrows buyers? The lemmings have spent their money, and the daytraders have already made their money so may move on to the next target. So short term support may well be at around 6.5 cents after the last 2 days.

YOUNG_TRADER said:

snip...



Catho Well Iron Ore, 30% Carried, West Pilbara
JORC 68Mt@55.4%Fe
Now CUL's main project is joint ventured to Australian Premium Iron which is jointly owned by AQA and Multi Billion dollar steel mills, they are firming up a large porject in the West Pilbara and are currently doing feasibility studies and although CUL's project is smallish it still represents 1/4th of the total project and as such will get into production, importantly CUL's deposit contains lower impurities and thus is required to blend with the other deposits
AQA/API have very very deep pockets and backed by the US steel Mills, funding and offtake will not be a problem,

Valuation
RHI 40m shares @ $2.50 = $100m, its asset 20% of 135Mt@58.5%Fe = Net 15.795Mt Fe, at $100m = EV of $6.33/ Fe t

So if we give CUL the same $6.33/ Fe t = 30% 68Mt@55.4%Fe = 11.3Mt's Fe = $71.5m = 15c CUL

snip snip..

Click to expand...

YT,

Amazing vol today - about 40% of issue shares turned over.

Is the 55.38% a bit of an issue, when normal good grades of haematite are in the range of 61-66%?? If this is an issue what will Cullen have to do to the Iron-ore to increase the grade to be able to sell the product ?

What do you see as the path that Cullen might follow as to production and will they be looking to sell Pellets???

Is there a desktop study done as yet, I can't see one?

Cheers
Muzz

PS on the JORC resource they released there is an number under LOI%, can someone pls point me to where or what this means? Tks

YOUNG_TRADER said:

So if we give CUL the same $6.33/ Fe t = 30% 68Mt@55.4%Fe = 11.3Mt's Fe = $71.5m = 15c CUL

Click to expand...

This is the most ambious valuation I had ever seen from YT.

55.4%Fe is not an attractive at all, leave it alone for $6.33/Fe t.

The industral average is about $3/t for average grade is 60%+ hematite.

YT, you have done excellent job on so many stocks, but don't get carried away with this one!

danewbee said:

This is the most ambious valuation I had ever seen from YT.

55.4%Fe is not an attractive at all, leave it alone for $6.33/Fe t.

The industral average is about $3/t for average grade is 60%+ hematite.

YT, you have done excellent job on so many stocks, but don't get carried away with this one!

Click to expand...

First I thought maybe you were serious, but then when you post this cut and paste on Hotcopper, it's literally only a downramp.

If what you is saying is true, why is RHI trading at $2.50 ?

YT's used another stock with the same resource as the comparison.

If that's the case, RHI is trading grosely overvalued.

Where did you find the industrial average for $3/t?

danewbee said:

This is the most ambious valuation I had ever seen from YT.

55.4%Fe is not an attractive at all, leave it alone for $6.33/Fe t.

The industral average is about $3/t for average grade is 60%+ hematite.

YT, you have done excellent job on so many stocks, but don't get carried away with this one!

Click to expand...

http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_thread.asp?fid=1&tid=501699#1907837

Love this post where you blatently downramp the stock for no reason and talk to yourself...

No credibility.

You are being added to my ignore list

Fool said:

http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_thread.asp?fid=1&tid=501699#1907837

Love this post where you blatently downramp the stock for no reason and talk to yourself...

No credibility.

You are being added to my ignore list

Click to expand...

I tried in the past to join Hotcopper so I could read their posts. But they won't let me only because I use Hotmail, I have done so for years. I wonder Why??? ASF doesn't have this policy.

Quote HotCopper requires that your registered email address cannot be a free email account like Yahoo, Hotmail or Gmail. Unlock emails will not be sent to these addresses Unquote

YELNATS said:

I tried in the past to join Hotcopper so I could read their posts. But they won't let me only because I use Hotmail, I have done so for years. I wonder Why??? ASF doesn't have this policy.

Quote HotCopper requires that your registered email address cannot be a free email account like Yahoo, Hotmail or Gmail. Unlock emails will not be sent to these addresses Unquote

Click to expand...

Mainly due to the issue of multi-nicks. HC is trying hard to eliminate this big problem. ASF software is so much better at catching these buggers than HC software is.

Cheers

PS You must have an account with an ISP (unless you are using an internet cafe), join with that one....???

YELNATS - don't even bother, HC is a total waste of time.

ASF much better community and is (mostly) not plauged with rampers/downrampers such as HC.

You aren't missing anything. The only reason I have a look there is on the odd chance someone has posted something interesting - 9 times out of 10 it's already been posted on ASF previously.

Fool said:

First I thought maybe you were serious, but then when you post this cut and paste on Hotcopper, it's literally only a downramp.

Click to expand...

Fool, are you real? I hardly post anything at any forum. I don't know hot copper or hot iron. I want to know which SOB did that.

But there are a few of very interesting points here:
1. Someone has both ASF account and Hotcopper account. At least you are one of them. You are allowed to view and post on both forum, me, or a newbee, cannot.

2. If I post on one forum, and post the same content on another forum, I am a downramper or upramper.

3. By accuse me as downramper because I have view it in a different angle will make you an upramper, right?
4. As a matter of fact, you should invest in RMI with $6+/t Fe valuation because it has 90% of 17mt at 55%, with might value it at $90m, while the current makert cap is only at $25m. Plus it has a huge nickel project in PNG.

Get real!

Fool said:

YELNATS - don't even bother, HC is a total waste of time.

ASF much better community and is (mostly) not plauged with rampers/downrampers such as HC.

You aren't missing anything. The only reason I have a look there is on the odd chance someone has posted something interesting - 9 times out of 10 it's already been posted on ASF previously.

Click to expand...

Fool,

99% right about HC. Agree on the ramping/dramping on HC is out-of-control. The GDN & AGY threads are a classic cases. Like someone posted a valuation of $46.00 on AGY!!!. Like yeah, whatever...

There are some decent posters over there, and if used correctly can be a source of information as a starting point.

Cheers

Muzz

I like the post by T4P today at 10.43 on Hotcopper.

QUOTE:

The way stock behave on days like this is what tells me about how genuine the interest is.

Should have seen a significant sell-off today inlight of the speeding ticket, the fact it has barely moved indicates the buying may well be based on something we do not know, rather than a pure numbers based pump and dump.

We are also seeing supression tactics this morning, suggesting this will run again shortly.

Probably a good time to top up, or for those who missed the first leg to enter.

With 22m traded already this morning and the price virtually unchanged from yesterday, one might suggest we have seen enough volume to cover a complete retrace cycle from the temporaries.

There appears to be a group collecting stock...I don't know why, but may join them?

Will see how it looks later in the day.

Cheers!

danewbee said:

This is the most ambious valuation I had ever seen from YT.

55.4%Fe is not an attractive at all, leave it alone for $6.33/Fe t.

The industral average is about $3/t for average grade is 60%+ hematite.

YT, you have done excellent job on so many stocks, but don't get carried away with this one!

Click to expand...

First of all I just read a report by Peter Strachan of Stock Analysis (and no I can't copy and paste it because he is very big on his copyright, you have to pay for his analysis) anyway he had an avg EV figure for the smaller plays of $5/t Fe

Now mate the difference between RMI and CUL
Is that RMI's project is A STAND ALONE PROJECT Get it? Its all alone miles from any other resource and there's no way RMI can fund its development, hence its risky, until funding is sorted it doesn't deserve the $5/t EV, understand?

CUL's on the other hand (and I can't stress this enough) is joint ventured to Australian Premium Iron which is jointly owned by AQA and Multi Billion dollar steel mills, and the Project is only one part of a much large developing project

See the difference

RMI, small stand alone deposit with no funding

vs

CUL, deposit thats part of a larger package of projects that joint ventured to AQA/API who have very deep pockets and are backed by the US steel Mills, funding and offtake will not be a problem,

Valuation
As I have said if we use $5/t as an EV given RHI trades at $6.33 and is the other junior whos got an interest in the other parts of the project we get

So if we give CUL the same $5/ Fe t = 30% 68Mt@55.4%Fe = 11.3Mt's Fe = $56.5m = 12c CUL

Agian the mian points are
1. This was a first pass JORC from 1 of 4 target areas, a look at CUL's ground position suggests some of RHI's Cardo Bore deposit extends into CUL's ground

2. API is backed by AQA and Multi Billion Dollar US Steel Mills who will provide funding and offtake

3. A feasibilty study is underway

4. A comparison to RHI suggest CUL is worth 15c on this asset alone!

And re the grade, its not an issue, because if I haven't said it enough already CUL's deposit is a piece of a larger project

The important thing with CUL's deposit is that its Phosphorous levels (the killer for most projects) is by far the lowest avg 0.038% vs 0.08% to 0.12% for the others

This means CUL's deposit is crucial for blending with the other ORE's for the total project

One final point to make,

Re the trading, I've seen FML and AAR both on the last few weeks go from 5/6c to 12c/13c based on fundamental re-ratings

Given this and what I think CUL's projects are worth (mainly the Iron Ore Deposit) I expect it at the least to crack 10c in the next 4 weeks

Fool said:

Thanks mate.

Where did you get this from by the way (protrader?)

I keep meaning to sign up to it but never get around to it.

Click to expand...

Sorry. I missed you post.
trade details can be get from http://stocknessmonster.com/
a free one. enjoy:

Young Trader said:

Re the trading, I've seen FML and AAR both on the last few weeks go from 5/6c to 12c/13c based on fundamental re-ratings

Given this and what I think CUL's projects are worth (mainly the Iron Ore Deposit) I expect it at the least to crack 10c in the next 4 weeks

Click to expand...

AAR's rise was primarily triggered by a very high grade gold intersect reported by RMI on its lease nearby to AAR's ground, combined with AAR then announcing they had commenced bedrock gold exploration drilling via a response to a speeding ticket issued after it started to rise.

FML's rise was triggered primarily by an announcement in relation to its nickel project which included information that they had increased the inferred resources by 45%.

Sure fundamental re-ratings maybe - but on the back of new information.

YOUNG_TRADER said:

First of all I just read a report by Peter Strachan of Stock Analysis (and no I can't copy and paste it because he is very big on his copyright, you have to pay for his analysis) anyway he had an avg EV figure for the smaller plays of $5/t Fe

Now mate the difference between RMI and CUL
Is that RMI's project is A STAND ALONE PROJECT Get it? Its all alone miles from any other resource and there's no way RMI can fund its development, hence its risky, until funding is sorted it doesn't deserve the $5/t EV, understand?

CUL's on the other hand (and I can't stress this enough) is joint ventured to Australian Premium Iron which is jointly owned by AQA and Multi Billion dollar steel mills, and the Project is only one part of a much large developing project

See the difference

RMI, small stand alone deposit with no funding

vs

CUL, deposit thats part of a larger package of projects that joint ventured to AQA/API who have very deep pockets and are backed by the US steel Mills, funding and offtake will not be a problem,

Valuation
As I have said if we use $5/t as an EV given RHI trades at $6.33 and is the other junior whos got an interest in the other parts of the project we get

So if we give CUL the same $5/ Fe t = 30% 68Mt@55.4%Fe = 11.3Mt's Fe = $56.5m = 12c CUL

Agian the mian points are
1. This was a first pass JORC from 1 of 4 target areas, a look at CUL's ground position suggests some of RHI's Cardo Bore deposit extends into CUL's ground

2. API is backed by AQA and Multi Billion Dollar US Steel Mills who will provide funding and offtake

3. A feasibilty study is underway

4. A comparison to RHI suggest CUL is worth 15c on this asset alone!

Click to expand...

Sorry, YT, I didn't realise that a few my lines cause so big anger from ASF members. To be honest, most of ASF members are very inexperiences, and just making noises. I don't give a dime about them. A few like you, and Chris1983 are excellent.

Well, I am glad that you have sort out your figures, and provide more info to back up your valuation. This is what a forum is about. And your further analysis makes sense to me now, but disagree with your comments on RMI. 17mt, $1b in ground value is not a joke. They just need very strong management team.

Good luck with your CUL holding if you still hold it, and keep good posting.

cuttlefish said:

AAR's rise was primarily triggered by a very high grade gold intersect reported by RMI on its lease nearby to AAR's ground, combined with AAR then announcing they had commenced bedrock gold exploration drilling via a response to a speeding ticket issued after it started to rise.

FML's rise was triggered primarily by an announcement in relation to its nickel project which included information that they had increased the inferred resources by 45%.

Sure fundamental re-ratings maybe - but on the back of new information.

Click to expand...

Wasnt the recent Jorc for the iron ore deposit enough for you? Thats why they got re-rated. Iron ore is a hot sector atm too.