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CTM - Centaurus Metals

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Might not be long before Sprott's target is hit at this rate. There must be a decent pause and healthy correction / sideways consolidation at some point.

 
Blood on the streets and there's only a few things green. This is great for those who have been on the sidelines and willing to top up on longer term fundamental plays. CTM has a history of advance, retreat, repeat to higher levels over the past 2 years. Still way off Sprott's longer term price target identified previously. But, with talk of commodities topping out after crazy increases due to geopolitics and bad trading, maybe there's a longer term pause. Maybe not. Maybe this is just a shake out of short term players. The 200dma and diagonal trend should be support.

 
CTM has been smashed the past couple of weeks, beaten back down to a dollar ish with metal prices hammered recently. Zn, Sn, Ni, Cu, Pb, etc all off massively the past month. Maybe a correction overdue after the previous 12 months run up in prices.

Good infill results out for CTM, de-risking the project. Would really like to see further extension drilling success though to push it towards the 1m contained Ni.

MC back under $500m. 730K contained Ni @ $27K a ton = about $20b in the ground.

 
Well, someone just spent over 4 Big Ones on them at the open. I wonder if the gap will be filled.



gg
 
mullokintyre said:
Back into CTM this morning on a partly filled order.
Will accumulate at anything around 92 or 93.
Mick
Click to expand...
This should be one of the explorers / developers to spring back once the blood is dry. Not sure if it's dry yet. Longer term, nickel is still going to be a much in demand metal. Much like copper.
 
Some good step out results here. Should bode well for another significant MRE upgrade. Already one of the biggest deposits outside the majors. I'd be surprised if a major doesn't come sniffing around really. BHP might want to tack on another large Ni deposit. Maybe even OZL want to expand their Ni holdings and they work in the region already. With so much cash in the bank they should come out of this dip/recession period strongly.

 
DFS being put back three months is disappointing, but otherwise it's all sounding very good for an MRE upgrade and potential higher throughput for final mining numbers. Be interesting to see what the additional Cu, Zn and Co provides.


 
Sprott maintain their $2.60 target even after the significant drill results above. They note it's because they're not sure how much the ROM will improve over previous guestimates. With it turning into one giant pit and significantly more Ni tonnage they've surely got to increase the mill throughput to closer to 3Mtpa which should lift the valuation further. Will have to wait on the DFS I guess.

 
At D&D. Aiming for 1Mt contained Ni. I don't think they'll be there at the next MRE but maybe the one after.

 
CTM has appointed someone to advise on their debt financing to make sure the Q1 23 DFS lines up for the banks.

New research note from Argonaut who raise their target a bit to $1.87. In the guts of their report they put an NPV on Jaguar of about $1.1b and $2.57 a share, less risk (-25%), exploration and dilution. I think they're putting too much risk onto it, even though it's not yet started construction. I think the risk is to the upside with the price of Ni in the future more likely to be higher in 5+years than current.




 
started looking at CTM.
Not sure to believe on various reports including today's one
and two days back one :
or this one - directors sold out existing shares and converted options at juicy prices
On technical ground after getting excited on the above, the following chart enhanced my confusion

 
Believe the market.
Up 10% today.
The market is always right.
Mick
 
Just an idea of the basic value of the contained metal in this deposit. 938k tonnes at $23k a ton for Ni = $21.5b. In gold equivalent terms that's a 12.6m OzAu deposit. Bigger than DEG. DEG MC is $1.8b, CTM is $415m. Another one to compare it to is CHN's Gonneville which has 2mt NiEq. So, double CTM. MC, $1.7b. CTM should be at least half that valuation, say $800m, or double the current SP.
 
Sprott out ramping CTM overnight. Increased their target by 50c to $3.10. I'm not sure why this is still trading at these prices when the writing seems on the wall. This is going to have a NPV well over $2b. 1xNAV it will be quadruple ++ current EV, less dilution for capex.

 
I think the reason this is flying under the radar, or as Sprott say 'the market is asleep at the wheel' on this is that it's nickel in Brazil and not gold in Australian. Imagine a gold explorer in Australia sitting on 12.3m ounces at 3.6g/t? It'd have a MC of about $2b. Just sayin...
 
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