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CSS - Clean Seas Seafood

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Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

I have been following this stock for the pass few years. Sometimes having kicked myself for not investing when viewing the share price. Now of course I cannot see any reason for not entering with the minimum outlay. This will ensure I keep a firm eye on it and take advantage if and when the time comes. My advise to all bailers is to hold the minimum and wait - otherwise you will end up not tracking it and loose the poss of a come back sometime...maybe
 
Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

At the moment, it's trading at 24c (yes, that is below 25c ;)).

With SPPs, they generally say something like "25c OR the weighted average price with an x% discount" so there is a chance that the SPP price will be lower than 25c depending on how it trades in the weeks prior to the SPP.

I still have a positive outlook for this company. I guess I see it as "high return, high risk" since they aren't making a profit at the moment.

If they pull off this SBT, there should be some good money to be made. I am still in.
 
Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

Yea, except in this case they didnt have a "or x days average", well at least as far as I know.
Which makes for a very interesting outcome.....no ones going to buy stock off market for more than they can on market
 
Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

Well, the announcement hasn't been made yet! I think it needs to be voted in at the AGM before the SPP can even go ahead.

I think there are rules regarding SPPs and I would expect that to be one of the rules set out by ASIC. Otherwise, like you say, you would have to be stupid to go into the SPP.
 
Thoughts on expected return

I was thinking about CSS this morning. Being a mathematician, I like the idea of expected return. I initially bought in to CSS about 6 months ago at about $0.50 with the view of it being a high risk and high return company.

To calculate expected return, we need the probability of them "making it" and the share price if they do "make it". This also assumes that if they fail, the company goes bankrupt and you lose everything ;)

These are the questions I propose to this forum:
  • What is the probability (0-100%) that they pull it off and start selling SBT in 2011/2012, making huge profits?
  • Also, if that happens, what will be the return?

Then we just multiply those two values and viola! Expected return :)

So my guess would be around a 400% return over 2 years ($2.50 from my buy price of 50c) if they are successful. Also, considering they have come so far in SBT production, there is a 60% chance they will succeed (yes, I am a pessimist!). So, over 2 years, the expected return is 240% or (1+2.4)^(1/2)-1 = 84% return annually. That is why I think the benefit outweighs the risk.

Of course, I made those numbers up which is why I am asking you, what do you think?
 
Re: Thoughts on expected return

drlog said:
I was thinking about CSS this morning. Being a mathematician, I like the idea of expected return. I initially bought in to CSS about 6 months ago at about $0.50 with the view of it being a high risk and high return company.

To calculate expected return, we need the probability of them "making it" and the share price if they do "make it". This also assumes that if they fail, the company goes bankrupt and you lose everything ;)

These are the questions I propose to this forum:
  • What is the probability (0-100%) that they pull it off and start selling SBT in 2011/2012, making huge profits?
  • Also, if that happens, what will be the return?

Then we just multiply those two values and viola! Expected return :)

So my guess would be around a 400% return over 2 years ($2.50 from my buy price of 50c) if they are successful. Also, considering they have come so far in SBT production, there is a 60% chance they will succeed (yes, I am a pessimist!). So, over 2 years, the expected return is 240% or (1+2.4)^(1/2)-1 = 84% return annually. That is why I think the benefit outweighs the risk.

Of course, I made those numbers up which is why I am asking you, what do you think?
Click to expand...

How did you arrive at this $2.50 figure? Are you basing that on expected earnings upon successful SBT? Also keep in mind equity has been diluted by the capital raising. EPS would have fallen too
 
Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

That's right, it is pure speculation! :D I based it on a 400% gain.

There is no way we could possibly know for sure what the future holds. This is just a bit of fun.

What do you think a realistic value would be?
 
Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

Successful commercialisation is key, though it has many hurdles to go through.
Next SBT Spawing is Dec. If good spawning and survival rates are achieved, that would be a positive boost. If that fails then CSS is fairly screwed.

Would estimate around $0.60 if everything works out? Margins are low as they try to establish market sharel; It's burning though cash pretty fast maybe another cap raising in 2011.
 
Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

skyQuake said:
Successful commercialisation is key, though it has many hurdles to go through.
Next SBT Spawing is Dec. If good spawning and survival rates are achieved, that would be a positive boost. If that fails then CSS is fairly screwed.

Would estimate around $0.60 if everything works out? Margins are low as they try to establish market sharel; It's burning though cash pretty fast maybe another cap raising in 2011.
Click to expand...

CSS has been burning cash pretty fast as it has been growing its YTK business. In 2010 YTK will not grow and actually contribute a positive amount of cash to the business. If the SBT spawning is unsucessful CSS is hardly screwed with $25-30m in the bank and a profitable YTK with sales of $40m and positive margins.

Margins in SBT will be very high as CSS will be one of the few producers of SBT left in the world - actually of any bluefin tuna. Have you seen the latest Japanese GDP figures?

On conservative management estimates of $10/kg margin - which equates to a $20 selling price and $10 in costs, if by 2015 CSS are selling 10,000t of SBT and 4000t of kingfish then they will be making $85m in NPAT - 20cps on 15x gives $3.00 - a compound return of 60%pa over 5 years.

The upside to these numbers is if CSS goes well beyond 10,000t and if the price is significantly above $20/kg (which it has been historically). Any price above $20 is pure profit.
 
Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

Yeah, thats pretty much the way I see it, truevalue. You need to put a risk factor in there as they may fail with the SBT.

Like I said: High risk and very high return.

Should be fun to see what happens! :D

Say they successfully spawn a commercial quantity in December this year (as the plan is at the moment). Does anyone know how long before they can start selling them at a fish market?
 
Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

drlog said:
Yeah, thats pretty much the way I see it, truevalue. You need to put a risk factor in there as they may fail with the SBT.

Like I said: High risk and very high return.

Should be fun to see what happens! :D

Say they successfully spawn a commercial quantity in December this year (as the plan is at the moment). Does anyone know how long before they can start selling them at a fish market?
Click to expand...

Absolutely drlog there is no doubt still a risk of failure. My own assessment of that risk has fallen dramatically since the events of May.

It will take 2 years to grow the initial batch to 30kg - sales in 2012
 
Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

derty said:
A news piece in the Australian about Time magazine ranking the CSS tank bred tuna as the 2nd most important invention of 2009 may bring a bit of attention to the stock. There was slightly elevated volume today. Will be interesting to see how it goes tomorrow.
Click to expand...

Ended up being Time's second best invention for 2009 behind the Ares 1 rocket.

I don't have the credentials to post a link at this stage, but refer to today's online Australian.
 
Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

Does anyone know what the status is with the new SPP? There was talk about a month ago of current shareholders getting the chance to purchase shares for 25cents capped at a $15,000 worth.
As a current shareholder, I've received nothing in the post and wouldn't know if I've missed the deadline or whether it has even begun?
With the share price back over 30cents I'm more than considerring buying more if I can get them for 25cents.
 
Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

That will be decided on the 30th of November at the AGM.

It will probably go ahead so you should get something in the post in early December.
 
Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

drlog said:
That will be decided on the 30th of November at the AGM.

It will probably go ahead so you should get something in the post in early December.
Click to expand...

Yeh, in fact the SPP ex-date is 20th Nov, so you can still get into the SPP. SPP closing date is 18th Dec.
 
Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

stock is up 21% today at 34.5c on some decent volume, 4.1m shares.

TGE Oracle will be buying back in before long.
 
Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

truevalue said:
stock is up 21% today at 34.5c on some decent volume, 4.1m shares.

TGE Oracle will be buying back in before long.
Click to expand...

They're doing extremely well today. Those that bought in at 25c would be rubbing their hands together for sure. I bought in at 48c so it will be a little bit longer before I pop the champagne!
Lets hope Rabobank pulling the pin on CSS will be remembered as one of the biggest commercial blunders ever!
 

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