CSM - Consolidated Minerals

[Rimtalay]

Hi BlueBayDiver,
Haven't heard from you before. What are you some stooge from ConsMIn? I wouldn't be surprised. How many shares do you have in ConsMin?
What a fantastic post, was it your first post eh?
How about something a little more constructive in future.
If you're a stooge from ConsMIn, at least you can see, no one is happy with this deal.
Good to see you've been browsing the Vote No website.
If your a ConsMIn shareholder have you posted on the Vote no website yet? NO

 

[Sainter]

I, among others, am very grateful for Rimtalay's efforts in this area. I welcome his postings as they strive to reach CSM shareholders, in order for them to be more fully informed (unlike CSM and PwC's recent actions). Even on the day the bid was announced, it took but the back of an envelope and one minute to prove (and I mean prove) that this offer was a crap one for CSM shareholders. Rimtalay's efforts have provided a focus point for people to demonstrate their displeasure with this pitiful offer, and as a conduit for shareholders to better understand the true value of the company.
Have another look around the NO website. Unless you're Rod Baxter or intellectually challenged, you would have to say the facts make a compelling case to vote NO.
Oh, and the proof? Look no further than Ni.
Keep up the great work Rimtalay

 

[Rimtalay]

Hi Sainter - Thanks for the kind words. If ConsMin management did their job, and made announcements to the Market, I wouldn't have to do their job for them.
Chrome ore is rocketing, I hope that ConsMin executives have time to look after shareholder interests and try and improve their negotiating skills with the Chinese. From what I hear they are bloody hopeless.

China Buys African, Turkish Chrome on India Tax Rise (Update1)

By Helen Yuan

March 27 (Bloomberg) -- China, the world's biggest producer of ferroalloys, is turning to South Africa and Turkey for chrome ore after India imposed a tax on the mineral to curb shipments.

Chinese steelmakers and traders are increasing purchases of chrome ore from those countries after costs from India increased, said Tu Kun, ferroalloy general manager of China Minmetals Corp., the nation's biggest importer of the commodity.

India, which has less than 1 percent of the world's chromium deposits, supplies one third of China's imports of chrome ores. The South Asian nation imposed a 2,000 rupee ($44) a ton duty on overseas shipments of the commodity from March 1. Higher duties raised costs for Chinese buyers as the nation's economic growth of 10.7 percent last year boosted consumption.

``Chrome ore demand is strong because of increased production capacity of stainless steel in China,'' Tu said at a conference in Hong Kong.

China may boost stainless steel output by 37 percent to 7.35 million metric tons this year from 5.36 million tons in 2006, metal research firm Heinz H. Pariser said last week. Ferrochrome, a ferroalloy combining iron and chrome, can be used to produce stainless steel as a substitute for nickel.

``The Indian government doesn't want to export any minerals,'' said Goutam Dutta, mineral exports head of Tata Steel Ltd., at the conference. Exporters are trying to pass on higher taxes to buyers. ``We will see how things settle.''

Import Surge

China's chrome ore imports rose 40 percent to 4.32 million tons last year, including 1.34 million tons, or 31 percent, from India. About 18 percent were from Turkey and 17 percent from South Africa, according to customs data.

``Chromium prices will remain high in the second quarter'' as Chinese demand keeps rising and exporters may impose more measures to curb shipments, Tu said. Prices could be more volatile in the third quarter as Chinese stainless steel producers may cut back production, he added.

Minmetals plans to boost chrome ore imports by 67 percent to 1 million tons this year, according to Tu.

To contact the reporters on this story: Helen Yuan in Hong Kong at hyuan@bloomberg.net ;

 

[Rimtalay]

ConsMin - manganese is also up more in China. Have management of ConsMin advised the market, no way, they want us all to believe that the only way forward is to accept their lousy deal.


Manganese surge continues
Chinese manganese prices have continued to surge so far this week on the back of the continued tight availability and soaring production costs caused by manganese carbonate and selenium dioxide, market players told Metal-Pages today.

27-Mar-2007
FeCr stays strong in China
Manganese surge continues
Chinese Ni imports and exports soar
26-Mar-2007
Chinese Mn alloys prices higher on supply shortages
Chrome metal continues up

 

[questionall_42]

Being a passive reader of this thread, I just want to say that Sainter is spot on with his/her comments about Rimtalay. I, for one, fully appreciate the information that is being posted here. Thanks.

 

[Rimtalay]

Consolidated Minerals: JP Morgan sees no reason to tender shares at current offer price

JP Morgan sees no reason to tender its shares to the bid for Consolidated Minerals at its current price, according to Ian Henderson, a portfolio manager at JP Morgan.
Brian Gilbertson’s Pallinghurst Resources private equity fund and AMCI have launched an offer for Consolidated Minerals, offering shareholders AUD 1.38 per share as well as two shares in the new company for every five held. Although changes in the ConsMins share price will translate into the value of the scrip portion of the offer, the bid has been criticised by some investors who claim that the cash component of the bid should be increased to as much as AUD 2 per share. JP Morgan, a minority shareholder in Consolidated Minerals, has now joined the ranks of investors who believe the offer price should be higher.
“Where we stand is that we have not voted one way or the other. We note that the board has recommended the offer and that the market is seemingly disappointed that there is no premium,” Henderson said.
“It is going quite cheap and the deal does seemingly look a bit opportunistic in light of low manganese prices, but that said maybe Brian Gilbertson and his colleagues can make a great success of it.
“The stock is trading at a negative spread and we are not complete fools. We are not going to ignore the fact that in the open market you could get more for your shares – there would have to be a very special reason to do that and there doesn’t seem to be here,” he said.

 

[Rimtalay]

Did you know, ConsMin holding in JML is now at $152 million today.
What do you think CSM shareholders, do you really think that $2.28/share makes sense? I think NOT.
Did you know that ConsMin holding in BC Iron (BCI) is worth $11.55 million?
Do you still think your CSM shares are only worth a miserable $2.28/share?
Think again.
Rememeber ConsMin has 200,000 tons of nickel in the ground at 1% nickel cut off grade worth $12 billion. YES $12 billion.
Do you still think your CSM shares are worth $2.28/share?
I'd like to know what deal have management cut with Pallinghurst Resources to get us to sell at $2.28/share. Must be a BIG BONUS.
Are shareholders Stupid? I think No.
I hear that "JP Morgan sees no reason to tender shares at current offer price, executive says"
What do you think BlueBayDiver? Do you plan to sell all your shares for $2.28/share? Either you're Nuts or a ConsMIn stooge. Will you tells us?

 

[Rimtalay]

BHP execs are bullish on metals prices
By Tom Stundza
Purchasing
March 28, 2007

Top executives at mining giant BHP Billiton caution buyers that transaction prices of copper, nickel and other base metals will remain high for the next several decades as demand climbs from China,India and other Asian nations.

BHP Billiton’s chief executive officer, Chip Goodyear, says he is “positive” that the development of China and India into world economic powers “is the reason for a multi-decade increase in commodity prices.” Speaking to the media while on business in Chile, the Australian mining exec says the three-year surge in nonferrous prices is a so-called super-cycle that shows no signs of abating.

Analysts are suggesting that a metals “super cycle'” will keep prices elevated as supplies lag behind demand. Diego Hernandez, president of BHP's base-metals unit, agrees: “We expect that this super cycle will continue for a while. We think that demand will continue to stay strong for many years.''

 

[redandgreen]

thanks Rimmy...agree with you totally.
My CSM shares (given all that has taken place over the last 6 months) are certainly worth a lot more than the highly dubious valuation of $2.28.

 

[Rimtalay]

Did you note that ConsMins stake in JML increased to $152 million yesterday, in fact JML is now valued at $478,855,829 market capitalization. Won't be long before they'll be able to do a scrip takeover of ConsMin, since they are now level pegging CSM on market capitalization.
Pity that Mr Michael Kiernan isn't still on the board, he would have snapped them up when JML was only 30 -40 cents. An opportunity lost.
One shareholder said on the Vote No website
"We should call a meeting and kick out the directors. Consolidated should break up like Coles by agreeing to sell Jabiru shareholding to Oxania at a decent premium so Oxania can launch a takeover of Jabiru, Mindy Mindy to Fortescue, float the rest of BC Iron, sell Vital Metals on the Market, sell YML back to its directors or on the market, and give the cash back to the shareholders. I'll go and buy some Oxania Shares so I can share in the Jabiru Story there,"
I think it makes a lot of sense.

 

[Dutchy3]

CSM was a real watershed stock for me a few years ago ...

Although I don't expect the same type of compounding this time its a relatively safe LONG for me

 

[Rimtalay]

Hi Dutchy3
What's your take on ConsMin from the charts. I'm new at charts, but it looks like sellers are getting fewer and that buyers are pushing it higher, what do you think?
ConsMin management won't get this deal passed at the present price.

With Jabiru at $152 million and other ConsMin investments at $25 million, it would be better to break the Company up and sell all the assets than accept $2.28/share

 

[Dutchy3]

Hi Rim

Corp actions can always produce results that are unexpected ... in my experience the chart often tells the story ahead of the actual news ... CSM is a BUY for me ... with STOPS starting at 2.30 ...

 

[Rimtalay]

Good times are on a roll for ConsMin with manganese ore prices on the move. Should expect an announcement from ConsMin management in the next few days, as they have a legal obligation to keep the market informed. The increases in Chrome ore and managanese ore could result in a 1/2 year profit of $50+ million. ConsMin management will be liable if shareholders are not advised epecially when a takeover bid is being offered. All shareholders have a right to know the present earnings situation of the Company.
I hope the Company stooge - BlueBay Diver reads this and reports back to management, what do you reckon D.... The Company is now on notice publicly.

Chinese manganese metal prices surge; offers in wide range

Hong Kong (Platts)--29Mar2007
Chinese-origin 99.7% manganese metal offer prices have continued to rise,
moving beyond $3,000/mt FOB China this week. Prices, however, are quoted in
a wide range at $3,000-3,500/mt FOB China in a thin market, local traders said
on Thursday. Prices were indicated at around $2,000-2,200/mt FOB China a week
ago.
One Hong Kong-based trader said: "Offer prices for manganese metal are
changing every day. I am now offering material at about $3,200/mt FOB China
but could not find buyers so far." The trader said prices for its raw material
carbonate manganese ore prices were rising, leading to firmer manganese metal
prices. "Manganese ore is rich in Hunan province of China but the area's
mining activity has been further restricted by the government due to the
heightened environmetal protection policy in China," he said.
Another trader said: "The highest offer price level I heard earlier this
week was at $3,500/mt FOB China. Prices are up but we can't find spot material
available so far. Chinese producers are holding back their material when
prices are going up." A third trader added: "Prices were up earlier this week
but we are now seeing some technical correction these past two days. Offer
prices are all over the place and moving in wide range due to market
speculation."

 

[Rimtalay]

THIS IS FROM CONSMIN MANAGEMENT AND MY REPLY - YOU MAKE UP YOUR OWN MIND
I quote from ConsMin management
“e) You refer to the Company holding 200,000 tons of contained nickel in the ground and incorrectly convert this into a revenue number. This is not a reserve and your calculation takes no account of geological or mining losses. The current resource at Kambalda is 78,560 Nickel tonnes, with reserves of 16,911 tonnes. We will be working hard over the next 12 months to convert further nickel "endowment" into resources and reserves.”
My response
“Is that true?
I say that Titan owned 130,000 tons of contained nickel in the ground. I have put the ASX listed document on website http://www.usail2.com/TITAN%20RESOURCES%20NICKEL.pdf "Widgiemooltha Exploration and Evaluation
The Company owns the nickel rights over 227km² of prospective and strategic tenements in the Widgiemooltha area (Figure 2) that form part of the
world class Kambalda nickel province. Nickel resources within the Company’s tenements at Widgiemooltha total 130,000 tonnes of contained
nickel metal at a 1% Ni cut off in eight separate deposits. An active exploration and evaluation program has been pursued over these tenements
with a series of positive results being achieved."
David, I have only added the figures in your own 2006 Concise Annual report. The figure of 123,000 tons is also in your report.( not the 130,000 claimed by Titan)
I also thought that the Twin Decline was planned so that it could explore and access "an estimated potential nickel exploration target of 90,000 tons"
but I did not include this because the "calculation takes no account of geological or mining losses"
So I believe that 123,000 + 78,560 = 200,000+ tons. Is this correct?
Maybe I should amend the in the ground figure to reflect the current price of nickel.
ie AUD$12.2 billion. We don't want to mislead shareholders do we.”

 

[noirua]

Hi Dutchy3
With Jabiru at $152 million and other ConsMin investments at $25 million, it would be better to break the Company up and sell all the assets than accept $2.28/share

That's probably what AMCI plan to do and create a new company with the best assets remaining.

 

[Rimtalay]

Do you think ConsMin management plan to tell shareholders that Chrome ore is up in China??

China on chrome ore alert despite high imports in YTD
According to the recently released State Custom statistics, China imported nearly 853,000 tonnes of chrome ore in the first two months of this year, almost double the 438,000 tonnes seen in the same period last year.


FERRO-ALLOYS Chrome Ore Price Kept High [2007-04-02]
FERRO-ALLOYS China Buys African, Turkish Chrome on India Tax Rise [2007-04-02]
FERRO-ALLOYS China Was Seriously Affected by Export Tax Imposed by India [2007-03-28]
FERRO-ALLOYS China Buys African, Turkish Chrome on India Tax Rise [2007-03-28]



Chromium metal price going to “the moon” ]
Chromium metal prices might increase in Europe ]
International Cr ore prices to jump up next week

 

[Col Lector]

Gidday Rimtalay....following on from your ponderings on Chromium......thought you may enjoy this too...



PLATTS: Chinese manganese metal prices surge; offers in wide range
Hong Kong (Platts) Chinese-origin 99.7% manganese metal offer prices have continued to rise, moving beyond $3,000/mt FOB China this week. Prices, however, are quoted in a wide range at $3,000-3,500/mt FOB China in a thin market, local traders said on Thursday. Prices were indicated at around $2,000-2,200/mt FOB China a week ago. One Hong Kong-based trader said: "Offer prices for manganese metal are changing every day. I am now offering material at about $3,200/mt FOB China but could not find buyers so far." The trader said prices for its raw material carbonate manganese ore prices were rising, leading to firmer manganese metal prices. "Manganese ore is rich in Hunan province of China but the area's mining activity has been further restricted by the government due to the heightened environmetal protection policy in China," he said. Another trader said: "The highest offer price level I heard earlier this week was at $3,500/mt FOB China. Prices are up but we can't find spot material available so far. Chinese producers are holding back their material when prices are going up." A third trader added: "Prices were up earlier this week but we are now seeing some technical correction these past two days. Offer prices are all over the place and moving in wide range due to market speculation."

 

[Rimtalay]

This is the latest research document from Numis Securities, ConsMins EX UK broker. Note the increases in manganese and chromite.

CONSOLIDATED MINERALS – 103p buy 126p (from 117p) Earnings takeoff on higher Manganese & Chromite ore prices
Manganese ore prices jump a further 20% to $3.10 – 3.30 / mtu
Further evidence is emerging of higher manganese ore and chromite ore prices in China
Manganese ore prices: have jumped to $3.10 - 3.30/mtu according to the Metal Bulletin this week from $2.50 – 2.70 / mtu last week.
Analysts are likely to upgrade forecasts further as the market begins to appreciate the impact of the rise in manganese and chromite ore prices.
Consolidated Minerals management should have been aware of the strength of the manganese and chromite ore markets in China in recent months.
We believe that the Metal Bulletin published manganese ore price is beginning to catch up with domestic Chinese price levels which may have been at higher levels for some time.
Steel demand: for raw materials continues to rise generating further demand for imports of manganese and chrome ores for local ferromanganese and ferrochrome production.
Manganese ore: demand in China rose by 19% last year to 5.1mt representing nearly half total global consumption. Chinese steel production is forecast to grow by a further
10% this year with month-on-month production growth of 20% for February. We expect a similar rise in manganese ore demand.
Valuation : our valuation rises to US$622m for the group from US$564m as the value of the manganese business rises with increasing ore prices. Further valuation gains appear
likely as the company works through its nickel hedge book and begins to realise more of the nickel price. We have yet to raise our valuation for the chromite business as we are
awaiting confirmation of the new level for chromite prices in Europe and in China . We believe that Chromite ore prices in china may be around 80% higher than some transactions seen in South Africa .
Target price: we are raising our target price to 126p from 117p. This includes a 15% discount to our net present value calculation to account for the normal market which
we expect companies to have against our forecast valuations.
New estimates
Year to Sales PBT EPS Tax DPS Div. Yield FCF Yield Net Cash P/E
June ($m) ($m) ( ¢) (%) ( ¢) (%) (%) ($m) (x)
2006A 188.0 17.6 5.9 26.2 3.0 1.5 3.5 18.4 34.7
2007F 235.2 68.4 22.4 26.2 11.2 5.5 11.3 55.0 9.1
2008F 290.5 93.5 31.1 26.2 15.6 7.6 16.2 77.8 6.5
2009F 314.4 115.4 31.6 26.2 15.7 7.7 15.7 75.1 6.4
Old estimates
Year to Sales PBT EPS Tax DPS Div. Yield FCF Yield Net Cash P/E
June ($m) ($m) ( ¢) (%) ( ¢) (%) (%) ($m) (x)
2006A 188.0 17.6 5.9 26.2 3.0 1.5 3.5 18.4 34.7
2007F 225.1 59.2 19.4 26.2 9.7 4.8 9.9 48.5 10.5
2008F 252.2 58.9 19.6 26.2 9.8 4.8 10.5 51.3 10.4
2009F 303.5 106.8 28.9 26.2 14.3 7.0 14.4 69.4 7.0
Numis Securities does not act as UK broker or advisor but does act as a market maker to Consolidated Minerals
ANALYSTS: JOHN MEYER 020 7260 1279 / MARC ELLIOTT 020 7260 1232 / SIMON TOYNE 020 7260 1330

 

[noirua]

Hi Rimtalay, From what I've read on boards all over the place you are having an affect that will make AMCI and Co increase their bid. I thought you had little chance at first, now you've got them on the ropes. Quite an achievement.