CPA - Commonwealth Property Office Fund

nulla nulla · 28 January 2011

Traded all day between $0.875 and $0.88 then in the auction jumped to close on $0.885. Big spike in volume traded as well. Could have been an element of shorters closing, dunno. Hopefully, next week we will see the run continue to the low $0.90's, however it could just as easily retrace below $0.86.

nulla nulla · 5 February 2011

Treading water in the $0.87 - $0.89 range. Still has a large volume of open short sales (according to the ASIC register). Still at a large discount to NTA and only slightly above the recent capital raising of $0.86. Could be gathring for a break out or just as easily a retrace. Influencing factors, imo, tend to favour further gains ahead. As always "do your own research".

nulla nulla · 11 February 2011

The missus predicted that cpa was going to struggle to get past the $0.89 level. I looked at the Relative strength chart and decided that I agreed with her. I managed to unload half a small parcel to lock in the profit and will re-enter if it drops past the moving average at $0.86.

nulla nulla · 19 February 2011

CPA appears to be trying to break out above the $0.89 level but is meeting incredible resistance. Personaly I can't work out where the price is going. Most other REIT's have enjoyed a recent improvement and some, like Dexus, have narrowed the gap between share price and nta. CPA seems to be dragging the chain getting back to the price levels it was at prior to the Melbourne acquisitions.
I believe cpa should be trading higher but there appears to be a few hedge funds (with a large volume of open short sales accumulated between $0.82 and $0.89) that expect cpa to go lower? As always dyor.

nulla nulla · 26 February 2011

I liked the report, I took the dividend and I was looking for CPA to do a run up after going exdiv like Dexus did. Unfortunately there was to much resistance in the $0.885 - $0.89 bracket.

After what seemed like days of trying to break through the $0.89 level, cpa nosedived back to $0.845 which is below the recent capital raising price.

There is still a large amount of open trades registered with A.S.I.C which appear to have been purchased between $0.82 and $0.86. Someone has either made a big mistake or knows what they are doing and still expects cpa to go lower.
Stuffed if I know, but at the current price I topped up. I still expect it to climb back into the low $0.90's........eventualy . As always DYOR.

nulla nulla · 4 March 2011

Closing the week on a high of $0.88, my top up at $0.85 is in the money. CPA appears to be under a lot of constraint and it is hard to decide whether to close out the trade at $0.88 and lock in the profit or to hold and see if it can break through the resistance at $0.89?

At this stage I am continuing to hold. CPA has refinanced debt that was due later this year for a further three years at favourable rates. A meeting is due in the next week to vote on the shares issued to cover the Melbourne Office purchases (rubber stamp?) and CPA is unlikely to be one of the parties looking to buy centro shopping centres so it is unlikely to be going back to members to raise funds in the near future. Employment figures released recently were good, office space is in demand, yields are up and there is more confidence for the future in commercial real estate. I expect the gap betwen the current xhare price and the nta of $1.10 to narrow considerably. The only fly in the oinment is the high number of open short sales taken out between $0.82 and $0.85.

nulla nulla · 13 March 2011

Falling from last weeks close of $0.88 cpa was lucky to hold $0.86 at close on Friday. Turnover appeared to be mostly at $0.87 through Fridays trade but crashed just before 4.00pm and dropped further in the auction to finish at $0.86. Through-out the day, cpa was holding up while the rest of the market was drifting down. Some one was buying but in the end the sellers won out.

nulla nulla · 19 March 2011

cpa bounced off $0.81 twice this week before closing on $0.835. Significant turnover, the reaction to the nuclear crisis in Japan had the effect of pushing the price way down.

It will be interesting to see next week whether this sell down provided the shorters with the opportunity to close out some of the outstanding short sales or whether they are still holding out for cpa to go lower.

nulla nulla · 26 March 2011

Solid gains this week saw cpa close on $0.86. Recent activity and conditions make me cautious as to whether this is a trend that cpa can continue or whether it is peaking and will drop back from here.

nulla nulla · 2 April 2011

cpa managed to close on $0.87 after battling to break through $0.865 during the week, being pushed back to close on $0.86 twice after testing the $0.865 - $0.87 range.

It has the appearance of a share trying to break out upwards and may achieve this if the market continues it's optimistic trend. However the AUD$ is also testing new highs and this isn't an incentive for overseas investors to jump into our REIT's. As always dyor.

nulla nulla · 8 April 2011

Not a lot has changed. The Aud$ continues to gain against the US$. CPA continues to drag a load of "open short sales" and the price struggles to reach parity with the NTA.

Today was probably the best day cpa has had for a while testing $0.885.

I have closed out three parcels at $0.875 this week locking in the profit and freeing up some capital. I continue to hold another three parcels looking for further gains. It might be a while though but the div helps.

nulla nulla · 17 April 2011

cpa appears to have found a new trading range between $0.82 and $0.88, give or take half a cent. The share dropped along with the rest of the market with the japanese nuclear reactor meltdown and appears to be struggling to recover.

The rising aud$ does not give overseas investors any incentive to re-enter the Australian REIT market. If the dollar should fall, any increase in share price would only mean the overseas investor is only treading water. A share price fall combined with the retrace of the aud$ against the u.s$ would mean a double loss. Probably too risky, better profits for them elsewhere.

At the current price, local investors are probably topping up and the large "open short" contingent are probably closing out some of their exposure locking in profits. No doubt if the price sneaks up so will the number of "open short" sales until the price collapses again under the selling presure. There is a patern there for those with an appetite for risk and the ability to play the waiting game. As always do your own research.

nulla nulla · 21 April 2011

Took two parcels at $0.84 but missed the entry opportunity at $0.835. Can't always pick the highs and lows but am happy to be close.

Put the parcels straight into the sell queues at $0.865 and $0.87. Closed one out yesterday and the second out today.

Was surprised it jumped so quickly this week to close on $0.885. However a few of the REIT's had a good run today. Maybe they are having their overdue bounce.

Have already put a buy in for $0.835 but will watch the market, may have to revise it upward.

nulla nulla · 29 April 2011

I read an article in the paper that, when the aud$ hit parity, some large international hedge funds shorted the aud$ heavily. Then when the aud$ fell after the Japanese crisis they increased their short positions. However this week after the sell down of the u.s$ (and the spike of the aud$), the large international hedge funds are alleged to have closed out their short positions at a loss rather than incur further losses.

Watching the a.s.i.c daily open short sales reports I have noticed that the open shorts on cpa have reduced from the low 20 millions of shares to mid teens. It would appear that the shorters have been closing out to avoid the double whammy of the rising share price and the rising aud$. I suspect that this has helped pushed the cpa share price up to todays closing price of $0.915 (still a considerable gap on the NTA though).

Given the strengh of the close for a Friday, I would not be surprised to see cpa test the low to mid $0.90's next week. I hope so as I chose cpa for the May tipping comp, and starting from $0.915 is a lot harder than starting from $0.86.

As always DYOR.

nulla nulla · 8 May 2011

Finished the week on $0.90. Was pushed down to $0.885 on interday trading a couple of times but rallied then didn't have the buyer support strength to push back to the $0.91 plus area. $0.885 was a recent resistance level, maybe it could now become a support level. CPA still attracts a large volume of daily short selling action.

In the absence of any good news I wouldn't be surprised to see the price drift down. The chart suggests the recent lows are getting higher (as are the recent highs). There appears to be returning support to the Australain REIT market but the higher dollar would make it unlikely that the support is comming from overseas hedge funds unless there is a huge discount to nta (like Valid) making the fund a possible takeover target.

nulla nulla · 14 May 2011

The CPA share price of $0.90 - $0.905 started the week as a point of resistance then became a point of support on Wednesday/Thursday, making cpa look like it was trying to break out upwards. And that is exactly what it did on Friday pushing up to $0.925 - $0.93 before closing on $0.925.

The volume traded was up as well, with several large parcels being cross traded. The upward spike looks way over due and could signal a narrowing of the gap between the share price and the NTA.

BUT....yes there is a but and a big one as well. The report produced by the A.S.I.C, in respect of "open short sales" at the end of each day, shows that the number of open short trades on CPA rose from arround 13 million shares when cpa share price was arround $0.83 - $0.84 to the mid 20 millions when the share price hit $0.885 - $0.90 and then increased to over 30 million shares (as open short sales) when the share price hit $0.905 - $0.91. In my opinion, one of two things are going to happen in the very near future:

1. The "Shorters" have got it right and the price will fall back; or
2. The shorters have got it really badly wrong and the share price is going to go back toward the upper $0.95 - $0.975+ ranges.

If they are right per 1. then the price will drop, they will close out their shorts, take their profits and swing traders will be presented with another opportunity to trade the next rise.

If they are wrong per 2. then the price will sneak higher, then could surge as the shorters are forced to close out their trades (and wear their losses) before their exposure to potential losses gets even bigger.

And just to make it even more interesting, cpa is due to announce a dividend in the next 6 weeks or so.

As always do your own research and don't be influence by anything I post. What would I know.

skc · 14 May 2011

nulla nulla said:
The CPA share price of $0.90 - $0.905 started the week as a point of resistance then became a point of support on Wednesday/Thursday, making cpa look like it was trying to break out upwards. And that is exactly what it did on Friday pushing up to $0.925 - $0.93 before closing on $0.925.

The volume traded was up as well, with several large parcels being cross traded. The upward spike looks way over due and could signal a narrowing of the gap between the share price and the NTA.

BUT....yes there is a but and a big one as well. The report produced by the A.S.I.C, in respect of "open short sales" at the end of each day, shows that the number of open short trades on CPA rose from arround 13 million shares when cpa share price was arround $0.83 - $0.84 to the mid 20 millions when the share price hit $0.885 - $0.90 and then increased to over 30 million shares (as open short sales) when the share price hit $0.905 - $0.91. In my opinion, one of two things are going to happen in the very near future:

1. The "Shorters" have got it right and the price will fall back; or
2. The shorters have got it really badly wrong and the share price is going to go back toward the upper $0.95 - $0.975+ ranges.

If they are right per 1. then the price will drop, they will close out their shorts, take their profits and swing traders will be presented with another opportunity to trade the next rise.

If they are wrong per 2. then the price will sneak higher, then could surge as the shorters are forced to close out their trades (and wear their losses) before their exposure to potential losses gets even bigger.

And just to make it even more interesting, cpa is due to announce a dividend in the next 6 weeks or so.

As always do your own research and don't be influence by anything I post. What would I know.

CPA is the strongest of the big REITs of late. I trade it a lot against CFX which is languishing at the bottom of its range. If there is a short squeeze on CPA that would be the perfect time to go short...

nulla nulla · 16 May 2011

skc said:
CPA is the strongest of the big REITs of late. I trade it a lot against CFX which is languishing at the bottom of its range. If there is a short squeeze on CPA that would be the perfect time to go short...

The report issued by the ASIC today indicates that open short trades in cpa as at 10 May 2011 is up to 39 million. The ASX daily (arrears) update shows the volume of trade in cpa is rising and the percentage of daily shorts is also rising. Care should be taken linking the daily shorted volume ASX report to the ASIC report as there is no way of knowing what proportion of the daily short trades are closed before the end of the day. Also while the ASX report is one day behind, the ASIC report is 3-4 days behind and totally reliant on the timeliness of the submitions.

It would appear at the moment, however, that there is a buyer for every seller. Opening today at $0.905 cpa looked like following the xao down, then there was a rally that saw the price push up to its close of $0.935, rising while the rest of the market fell. If I was a shorter I would be concerned that cpa is capable of breaking out above this point.

IMO There is not a lot that is negative atm about cpa that would inspire confidence in going for the big short. Obviously everyone does their own risk reward assessment and holders of 39 million shares are punting the risk that they will close out lower.

nulla nulla · 20 May 2011

Well the punters have been upping the ante and the open shorts, last report released today shows the open shorts have gone past 42 million. CPA hit a recent high of $0.935 but did well to hold $0.905 today after touching $0.885 under heavy selling pressure.
Don't be surprised to see it push lower next week. DYOR, The share is good but the sentiment is unpredictable.

nulla nulla · 27 May 2011

Open shorts increased however when the share price clawed back to the low $0.90's the shorters closed down their positions reducing to 32 million from a peak of 49 million open short sales.

The price continues to test the $0.915 level and didn't fall back as I previously expected. If any thing the volume traded at $0.90, $0.905 and $0.91 Wednesday, Thursday and today would suggest to me that there was a lot of closing out of short positions.

The share is closing in on an Exdiv date in the next few weeks and could tempt a few punters willing to buy in at the current price for the div. At the present price, cpa is still a big discount to nta and has to be considered as one of the least risk Australian reits. I still can't work out why it is being shorted so heavily.

As always dyor.

CPA - Commonwealth Property Office Fund

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