Copper - Back above $3lb!

Trade_It said:

your bullish or bearish? you were 180 degrees up a post or two ago.

Brend you have charts to back up your thoughts? you claimed to use T/A, I post a chart when i make my view on direction.

would love to see your decisions on your charts.

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Hi Trade_It, when I say "should be down", I'm referring to the inventory level, not the price.

Copper chart is breaking out of short-term downtrend, and Head & Shoulders formation is almost fully formed:
http://basemetal-trading.blogspot.com/2007/06/copper-reversal-signal-is-formed.html

Do you trade copper futures or equities?

BREND said:

Should be down.

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stocks down or price??? i was referring to price.

BREND said:

Hi Trade_It, when I say "should be down", I'm referring to the inventory level, not the price.

Copper chart is breaking out of short-term downtrend, and Head & Shoulders formation is almost fully formed:
http://basemetal-trading.blogspot.com/2007/06/copper-reversal-signal-is-formed.html

Do you trade copper futures or equities?

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ok got you.

did you post that chart on the blog? if you did could u post those charts with explanation on the ASF as here we all like to learn.

I trade CFD's on commodities, Indexes, shares, FX and anything that looks like it could make me money.

I have not bought a actual copper future but I have traded CFD's over the brown metal.

Brend some of your trade ideas cut very close to the It margin do you use very aggressive trailing stops? If you do do you get stopped out on the goods one that retrace a fair bit & renter?

Trade_It said:

ok got you.

did you post that chart on the blog? if you did could u post those charts with explanation on the ASF as here we all like to learn.

I trade CFD's on commodities, Indexes, shares, FX and anything that looks like it could make me money.

I have not bought a actual copper future but I have traded CFD's over the brown metal.

Brend some of your trade ideas cut very close to the It margin do you use very aggressive trailing stops? If you do do you get stopped out on the goods one that retrace a fair bit & renter?

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I'm not qualified to teach.

BREND said:

I'm not qualified to teach.

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LOL I am a competent chartist Brend.

What I mean is that it's good to post your charts so others can see what your doing and learn from your posts. And correct advise you on what your doing or could do better, Not teaching so to speak.

BREND said:

My view on copper changes 180 degree today, turn bullish now.

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London Metal Exchange copper prices were steady on Monday, with falling inventories and a potential strike in Mexico supporting the market, analysts said.

‘The fundamentals look quite good, the LME inventories are continuing to fall and over the last few weeks we have seen declines in Chinese inventories as well,’ analyst Kevin Norrish at Barclays Capital said.

Copper for delivery in three months MCU3 was up $20 at $7,470/7,485 a tonne by 0959 GMT after gaining 1.1 percent in the previous session.

LME copper stocks fell by 3,550 tonnes to 123,900, the lowest since late October 2006 and down by some 40 percent since the beginning of February this year. LME/STX1

Shanghai stocks fell 4 percent to 95,254 tonnes last week.

I had turned bullish after seeing Shanghai stocks fell so much last Friday, advise my clients to take up long positions on copper, they make more money again today.

YOUNG_TRADER said:

I see Commarade!
I suppose ASF is the new Animal Farm? :

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Well I suppose it is full of bulls and bears... :

World copper demand will probably rise 4.7 percent because of increasing consumption in China, where usage tripled in the past decade, the International Lead & Zinc Study Group said.

“Copper mine output will probably rise 6.3 percent this year and 7 percent next year,'' Paul White, head of forecasting and statistics at the Lisbon-based group, said today in a presentation in Windhoek, Namibia.

In my view, there is a possibility of copper going back to $8000 level.
I'll continue to ask my clients to buy copper futures on dips.

BREND said:

World copper demand will probably rise 4.7 percent because of increasing consumption in China, where usage tripled in the past decade, the International Lead & Zinc Study Group said.

“Copper mine output will probably rise 6.3 percent this year and 7 percent next year,'' Paul White, head of forecasting and statistics at the Lisbon-based group, said today in a presentation in Windhoek, Namibia.

In my view, there is a possibility of copper going back to $8000 level.
I'll continue to ask my clients to buy copper futures on dips.

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This thing has an uncanny knack of filling gaps...

Here are my comments from a few days ago, including the seasonal tendencies:



BOTTOM LINE
6/6:
EW Trend: Corrective
Price Trend: Down
Trend Strength: Weak
Broker Consensus: n/a
23/5:
EW Trend: Corrective
Price Trend: Down
Trend Strength: Strong
Broker Consensus: n/a

LAYMANS ANALYSIS
6/6:
VIDEO ANALYSIS (2 mins 16 secs)
I mentioned in last nights review of BHP Billiton that I was not yet convinced that Copper was going to storm higher just yet so I thought I'd put forward my argument tonight. I do believe Copper will eventually go higher, but I'm concerned that we may have another leg lower toward 300.0 beforehand. The yellow ellipse on the above chart is the "typical" area that the market returns to at this part of the trend. When we do not reach that level we are left with two conclusions; firstly that the declining pattern that is expected has not yet completed. Because the patterns we follow have a useful amount of prior observations with accurate conclusions, it makes sense to use these as our template for working forward. This template suggests another round of weakness is expected. However, the second conclusion, and one that in these market conditions cannot be discounted, is that the trend is simply too powerful to allow the typical retracement occur. This conclusion can only be confirmed by prices advancing and exceeding the recent highs set on 4 May. That scenario is potently bullish. On the flipside it would take a move back below the lows set in February to break the larger bullish outlook.
23/5:
VIDEO ANALYSIS (1 mins 36 secs)
I mentioned in my last review that Copper was at an important "make or break" level. It broke lower through the important 347.5 level and should continue to unfold lower over the coming weeks toward the 300.0 area. This area represents the typical retracement zone for the next part of the trend as well as being an important, albeit not obvious, support level. Today is actually the start of a brief seasonal upward shift that tends to last till early June before more weakness sets in. As such we may see a continued bounce, although we have seen that small gap filled and nicely rejected last session. That is certainly a concern for any further immediate strength. Even so, any strength over the coming days would be a selling opportunity and a pre-cursor to further weakness. I cannot get bullish at this stage until we break up into new highs. Until then, down.

TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
6/6:
We discussed the filling the gap in the last review and that has now completed. We should theoretically look at the recent strength as a wave-b and therefore expect a rejection somewhere here for wave-c lower to unfold. The ellipse highlights the 50.0% to 61.8% retracement zone which stands at 311.0 down to 294.0. The wave-a/wave-c equidistant level is a little lower than typical at 285.0. This level is possible but would take the shine off the upward momentum. This current move up is exactly 50.0% of the wave-a decline and it does fill the gap without breaching the prior gap down bar. This is the usual area for the termination of wave-b. Yesterdays volume is not yet available but it was a tight range with low close. If we see that volume was high then we have further evidence that we're seeing a wave-b here and that another wave lower is nearby. Any break to new highs would mean the recent lows will become a wave-2 and we'd then expect a substantial move to the upside over the coming months.
23/5:
I had 347.5 marked as wave-a or -4. The break into new highs and subsequent reversal back through 347.5 signalled it as a wave-4 and therefore the recent highs as a wave-5. Now we should expect a 3-wave corrective move that will retrace 50.0% to 61.8% of these recent trend higher. That zone aligns us with the 300.0 support level that extends well back into last year. It's unlikely that the strength over the last few sessions (ex-last session) is a wave-b. I would expect that we may see a more pronounced wave-b before the wave-c rot sets in, so just be careful of another quick leg higher. Seasonal weakness starts on June 1 and extends through to mid-June which may be the timing zone for wave-c. We've been mentioning that OXR and BHP would also show some weakness shortly and that any strength prior could be a bull trap.


This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

Nick
An excellent analysis.
From a fundamental viewpoint, there is likely to be a longer consolidation around present levels as there remains adequate copper inventory, but low concentrates.
When the concentrates issue is resolved, the funds will work out whether or not to stay in or take money off the table.
Either way, the supercycle scenario has lost no traction over the past 5 years.

copper up 2.9% tonight so far...................................

There is a lot of talk about copper consumption based on current trends, US housing etc.. However it would make sense that with all the talk about climate change increasing demand for alternative methods of generating power, hybrid cars etc. that there is a very real possibility that copper consumtion may increase significantly due to increased demand through these emerging comsumers. Wind power, solar, biomass methods of power generation would all use higher amounts of copper per kilo watt produced. Electric powered or hybrid cars are also a signifiacnt emerging consumer.

Ding Ding Ding!

Copper stock levels have fallen below the 100k t level
Zinc and lead are wayy low too, the end of the commodities bull/ I don't think so!


London Metal Exchange Warehouse Stocks
( July 11 )
Metal Tonnes in Storage Change from
previous day
Aluminum 829750 +1950
Copper 99350 -1025
Nickel 10080 +126
Lead 42925 -125
Zinc 69825 -525

Funny you say that....i have been watching cuo and cdu with interest for several weeks as alternates to ories

What's you thoughts....

I heard a very very good news for copper company which will make the copper price going up in next 3-5 years.
China is going to invest 1000billion RMB to improve its electricity transfer network in the following 5 years. It is about 150 billion Aussie dollar investment. It is not hard to imagining how many copper China will need in the 3 to 5 years future. it will change the relationship of supply and demand dramatically and push the copper price to a new level.and copper is a topic very easy to make normal ppl excited.
I find the Investos are accumulating all companies shares in copper industry including tmr, cdu. rbm.

Does anyone know what company is the current producer of copper and the one with world class copper deposit in Australia and in the world? Thank you in advance.


The resource of the news is very reliable.It is in Chinese.
It would be announced by Chinese government soon. the market reaction will be dramatic.
http://news.cnfol.com/070709/101,1280,3138707,00.shtml

The following website details copper production companies - Not all are publicly listed though. http://www.ame.com.au/companies/cu/companies.htm

My dollar is on Oxiana (OXR) and Matrix Metals (MRX).

Watched the insiders this morning and was interested to hear the boss of RIO say they believe till 2015 that China will grow at 9% per year. I,m yet to here a strong arguement against this level of growth.Great news for developing mid tier copper miners like my old favorite EQN. Be interesting to watch how long it takes to catch up to OXR in market value.OXR 6 billion EQN 2.7 billion.

ta2693 said:

I heard a very very good news for copper company which will make the copper price going up in next 3-5 years.
China is going to invest 1000billion RMB to improve its electricity transfer network in the following 5 years. It is about 150 billion Aussie dollar investment. It is not hard to imagining how many copper China will need in the 3 to 5 years future. it will change the relationship of supply and demand dramatically and push the copper price to a new level.and copper is a topic very easy to make normal ppl excited.
I find the Investos are accumulating all companies shares in copper industry including tmr, cdu. rbm.

Does anyone know what company is the current producer of copper and the one with world class copper deposit in Australia and in the world? Thank you in advance.



The resource of the news is very reliable.It is in Chinese.
It would be announced by Chinese government soon. the market reaction will be dramatic.
http://news.cnfol.com/070709/101,1280,3138707,00.shtml

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In addition to copper, did you realise that aluminum is one of the choice conductors for high voltage lines? Its lighter than copper, enabling a variety of wieght sensitive applications.

Cheers,

CanOz said:

In addition to copper, did you realise that aluminum is one of the choice conductors for high voltage lines? Its lighter than copper, enabling a variety of wieght sensitive applications.

Cheers,

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After research, I find the high voltage transfer line is made of Al alloys in China. So maybe Al company could benefit more from this news.
What company is current Al producer or potential Al producer in ASX except RIO?