COH - Cochlear Limited

[McCoy Pauley]

Agreed, pixel. I don't chart, but from my observations, COH's share price has had a couple of goes at breaking through $67/share without success.

Result announced just on the market open. Revenue of $778,996,000 (down slightly on 2010/2011), NPAT before product recall costs of $158,139,000 (down from $180,114,000) and NPAT after product recall costs of $56,803,000. Final dividend of 125c/share declared, partially franked to 35%.

Simultaneously, COH released a copy of its letter regarding an update on the implant recall, along the lines that as at 31 July 2012, the overall proportion of Nucleus CI500 series devices reported as failed was 4.2% of all registered Nucleus CI500 devices globally. Newly reported failures continue to fall - failures in July 2012 were approximately 1/3rd of failures in October 2011. The FDA and its European equivalent have notified COH that all necessary actions associated with the return of unimplanted devices have been completed.

 

[McCoy Pauley]

Big fall this morning following the release of the announcement - down almost 7.5% to $61.49/share.

 

[pixel]

Big fall this morning following the release of the announcement - down almost 7.5% to $61.49/share.

sell-off was fast and furious, but may have been overdone.
Remember what they say about Amateurs opening the session, Professionals closing the day?
Interesting too, where it found support...

 

[robusta]

So glad not to be playing the short term game betting if a company beats or misses analyst expectations for the current reporting period. Long term the growth story should continue meanwhile sit back and enjoy growing; cash flow, EPS and dividends.

 

[McCoy Pauley]

All the share price declines since the release of the full year report have been recovered and then some, with the share price breaking through that $67/share barrier today (up more than 3% so far today).

IMO, it would be bullish for COH to close above $67/share today, although it is due to go ex-dividend on Thursday (IIRC).

I hold, so DYOR.

 

[McCoy Pauley]

Up through the $69/share barrier today. Perplexed as to why the share price has taken off like a rocket so far this week. I'm enjoying the ride, though, so DYOR.

 

[robusta]

Up through the $69/share barrier today. Perplexed as to why the share price has taken off like a rocket so far this week. I'm enjoying the ride, though, so DYOR.

Mystery to me as well, no new information out there as far as I know. Change of sentiment? Broker upgrade? Trend followers onboard? Broken through some technical resistance?


I have no idea. All I know is the price is not high enough to make me sell nor low enough to add to my holding.

 

[McCoy Pauley]

Share price dropping back today with a fall outpacing the fall on the broader market. Still a mystery as to why the share price exploded in the last few days.

 

[3134316]

Any insights into these last weeks folks?
I know bilateral implants are much more common now and older australians are also taking implants...

Very curious to see this uptrend continuing to the 75 border and wondering if anyone knows if there are any possible explanations
Any thoughts regarding the following possibilities?
a) new processors coming soon, new hardware / software changes
b) changes in ausgovt subsidies via medicare (i.e. Bilateral implant funding vs. one only?)
c) any bad news for competitors recently? any good news?
d) any new research out regarding cochlear implants?

Thanks for your time,
T
{disclosure, have shares in it and have a family member with 2 implants}

 

[Cyph]

b) changes in ausgovt subsidies via medicare (i.e. Bilateral implant funding vs. one only?)

{disclosure, have shares in it and have a family member with 2 implants}

How did your family members get theirs? I'm not 100% certain, but I understand the Government only provides limited funding for cochlear implants. Most of the implants done here are covered by private health insurance and the SCIC (http://www.scic.org.au/). I got my implant through the SCIC.

Australia is only a small part of Cochlear's market, so to only focus here would be a little short sighted perhaps?

 

[robusta]

Looks like the market is really taking notice of these broker reports.

http://www.dailypolitical.com/finan...reiterates-underperform-on-cochlear-coh-2.htm

I will continue to hold and see how much the put the dividend up.

 

[RottenValue]

Broker = Salesman

Broker makes money by people buying or selling

Cochlear is too expensive to put a Buy on, therefore lets tell the punters to sell

 

[catfish]

All the 'quality' value picks in the market are looking very expensive. Coh, rea, nvt etc
Most are hitting new highs every week

Coh at 27 times earnings seems silly, where would it be if the recall did happen?

 

[robusta]

All the 'quality' value picks in the market are looking very expensive. Coh, rea, nvt etc
Most are hitting new highs every week

Coh at 27 times earnings seems silly, where would it be if the recall did happen?

The recall did happen, it presented a nice buying opportunity.

I agree COH and NVT are probably too expensive to buy at the moment but they are very high quality businesses with a long history and the chance of future growth.

 

[catfish]

The recall did happen, it presented a nice buying opportunity.

I agree COH and NVT are probably too expensive to buy at the moment but they are very high quality businesses with a long history and the chance of future growth.

I meant didn't ..

I got some in the early 50s. Undecided on selling at the moment. Are you holding?

 

[robusta]

I meant didn't ..

I got some in the early 50s. Undecided on selling at the moment. Are you holding?

Yes I am holding, there are not that many businesses listed on the ASX that are this quality IMO. I intend to hold.

 

[odds-on]

The recall did happen, it presented a nice buying opportunity.

I agree COH and NVT are probably too expensive to buy at the moment but they are very high quality businesses with a long history and the chance of future growth.

COH will fail, just when..

How many years has COH been admired by investors and media?
How many years has COH been trading at a premium?

Once it gets past ten years the odds are well in favour of a shorting strategy..

Not being negative just been reading about creative destruction.

 

[McCoy Pauley]

COH will fail, just when..

How many years has COH been admired by investors and media?
How many years has COH been trading at a premium?

Once it gets past ten years the odds are well in favour of a shorting strategy..

Not being negative just been reading about creative destruction.

COH has been a standout performer almost as soon as it was listed, back in the late 1990s. I've held shares in COH I purchased since it floated, and wished I had bought more in the early 2000s (but I was too busy getting drunk and chasing skirts at uni to worry about the stock market). I did buy some more last year after the recall.

All through its listed history, COH has been admired by investors and pretty much been trading at a premium. But that's because it's had excellent management throughout, maintained high barriers to entry to new competitors and had a decent chunk of the worldwide (and growing) market.

There is always a risk with technology stocks that its technology could be superseded and the R&D it performs doesn't keep it ahead of the pack, but its track record is pretty much without peer in Australian corporate history.

COH's share price peaked at an all-time high of roughly $85/share a couple of months before they announced the voluntary recall and it's roughly $81/share now.

Looking forward to the half-year report next month.

 

[odds-on]

COH has been a standout performer almost as soon as it was listed, back in the late 1990s. I've held shares in COH I purchased since it floated, and wished I had bought more in the early 2000s (but I was too busy getting drunk and chasing skirts at uni to worry about the stock market). I did buy some more last year after the recall.

All through its listed history, COH has been admired by investors and pretty much been trading at a premium. But that's because it's had excellent management throughout, maintained high barriers to entry to new competitors and had a decent chunk of the worldwide (and growing) market.

There is always a risk with technology stocks that its technology could be superseded and the R&D it performs doesn't keep it ahead of the pack, but its track record is pretty much without peer in Australian corporate history.

COH's share price peaked at an all-time high of roughly $85/share a couple of months before they announced the voluntary recall and it's roughly $81/share now.

Looking forward to the half-year report next month.

Thanks Pauley.

Creative destruction is fascinating to read about. The book I have been reading seems to suggest that from studies of the US market there is a shift in survival probabilities after ten years of being admired by all and trading at a premium. Perhaps COH will be another Coca Cola and be extraordinary for decades.

What strategy can be best applied to stocks like COH? Buy dips and take small profits....

Cheers

Oddson

 

[robusta]

If you think Cochlear will be extraordinary for decades the best strategy would be to buy the dips and hold for decades.