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Coffee price

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johnmwu3 said:
Coffee price up a lot recently, any coffee stock in ASX ?
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Employees in law firms work long hours and require coffee to stay awake. If coffee prices go up, they may take less coffee and become less productive. May be you can consider shorting law firms (SGH, IMF) in lieu of going long coffee stock

BTW - can someone explain to me why coffee is cheaper (and tastes better) in Sydney than Brisbane? Surely there's an arbitrage opportunity there.
 
Tried a "Kopi Luwak" coffee, first & last time. $50 per cup. Beans are harvested on Indonesian Island jungles from the excrement of the "Luwak" !
 
What on earth possessed you to try a $50 cup of coffee in the first place? Secondly why would you drink the beans that have been extruded through an Asian Palm Civet? Maybe if it was a very rare bottle of red wine I would have a glass or two. Preferably the 1945 Chateau Mouton-Rothschild Jeroboam please
 
There has been some discussion from time to time on seasonal tendencies.

Coffee right now is a great illustration of how it can go spectacularly wrong.
 

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...and just to really crank up the conversation :
 

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Anybody 'cept me and the crickets following this?

I short some WTFOTM calls that expire 23 Aug.

I'm standing in front of a freight train but waaaay down the track.
 

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Where'd you dig up the seasonal charts from Wayne?

And what on earth triggered that rally
 
professor_frink said:
Where'd you dig up the seasonal charts from Wayne?

And what on earth triggered that rally
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It's a subscription service www.timeandtiming.com


The price spike was cause by poor harvest numbers in Columbia and Central America.

The southern hemisphere winter is known in some circles as the "suicide seasonal". There is a fairly reliable seasonal short in coffee, but when it goes wrong, it does so in a big way... like now. Usually it is frosts that sets off a bullish explosion.
 
LOL everybody knows that in institutions coffee is only consumed by the juniors and beginners, the advanced seniors all snort substances like kings to stay up and increase production. Price of coffee won't have any effect on them, shortage of powders ... might be a diff story
 

Interesting Wayne. Thanks for the link and the explanation
 
wayneL said:
Anybody 'cept me and the crickets following this?

I short some WTFOTM calls that expire 23 Aug.

I'm standing in front of a freight train but waaaay down the track.
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Me and the crickets might close out the WTFOTM calls tonight with ~95% of possible profit in hand.

BTW there was a typo above, expiry is 13 Aug
 
Higher coffee prices soon?:cup:
 

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Its probably due for a rise, not for technical reasons though!

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/guatemala-declares-national-coffee-emergency-18445643

To quote a friend in the industry,

"Brokers, exporters, importers, traders, Co-Ops and just about everyone in the middle between the farmer and the roaster are doing "that dance"'.

It's contract exchange time again as most origins have or are in the process of harvesting and prep'ing their wares for sale.

I have no doubt the situation with Leaf Rust is quite diabolical. One of the big Oz brokers is currently over in Cent-Am at the moment checking out for sure on the ground what is happening.

Coffee prices are due for their cyclical upswing. It was in May 2010 when Colombia pressed the "red button" a.k.a. shortfall due to excessive rains and "leaf rust" that triggered a major panic situation resulting in the C almost doubling in the space of 4 months. Tracking from 160 to a peak of 300.

Of course, coffee is one of those commodities where the "man in the middle" controls the shots - dictating what price he will pay the farmer and what" cost the roaster will bear.

Arabica is at an unsustainable level currently. It's can't be real at 44 cents a pound spot - that's ludicrous. Quality diffs are in the -20 and -40 range which should swing back to +20 to +60 once the full impact of Leaf Rust is realized.

Leaf Rust is a dire problem for coffee crops. You can't treat it the same way as traditional crops by spraying on the top of the plant - it grows from the under-side. You also can't easily "weed it out" because the spores travel like wildfire when disturbed. The treatment is quite involved.

Prices will rise and as usual they will take 12-18 months to drop again as inventories are flushed out of the system."
 
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