Coffee price

[Ann]

https://247wallst.com/commodities-m...nt-translate-to-cheaper-coffee-for-consumers/
Why Lower Coffee Futures Prices Won’t Translate to Cheaper Coffee for Consumers

Well thankfully that isn't true at my supermarket!
I just bought a 400g jar of Moccona coffee for $14 that is $2 cheaper than I have ever been able to buy it before. Thankfully my Robert Timms coffee bags regularly go on special for half price. If anyone has not tried these, they are awesome especially the Italian Espresso and so convenient.

 

[MARKETWINNER]

Hi Ann: Thank you for the kind response. My coffee drinking pattern has changed vastly. My mum used to make coffee from roasted coffee beans. Then I got used to instant coffee as it was very convenient. Now I am with pre ground coffee but I mainly drink Tea. For me ground coffee is better than instant coffee. If I am right roasted coffee are the best.

Well thankfully that isn't true at my supermarket!
I just bought a 400g jar of Moccona coffee for $14 that is $2 cheaper than I have ever been able to buy it before. Thankfully my Robert Timms coffee bags regularly go on special for half price. If anyone has not tried these, they are awesome especially the Italian Espresso and so convenient.

 

[noirua]

 

[Ann]

"Arabica Stockpiles Experience Largest Plunge Since '98 Amid Severe Shortage

The supply deficit of arabica coffee beans (something we first warned in March and later explained in May) is becoming more severe as certified warehouses of the premium coffee bean monitored by ICE Futures U.S. plunged.

Stockpiles of arabica coffee beans in ICE warehouses plunged 10% last week, the most significant drop since August 1998. Outflows from warehouses logged their 10th-straight weekly drop, a reflection of tight global supplies. Arabica coffee prices have more than doubled since we first mentioned the onset of the supply crunch."

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

I looked up what the difference was for Robusta compared to Arabica....

10 differences Between Robusta & Arabica Coffee

You may have noticed that some coffee bag labels brag about the fact that their coffee beans are 100% Arabica. Although it does sound like something magicians say, it isn’t gibberish – it refers to the type of coffee species in which the beans are from. There are over 100 coffee species, however...

theroasterspack.com

 

[rcw1]

Good morning

I read this article this morning (08/12/24) has good application with this thread ... and coffee lovers like rcw1.

Have a very nice Sunday.

Kind regards
rcw1

Alex Gluyas
AFR Markets reporter
Updated Dec 4, 2024 – 4.31pm,first published at Dec 3, 2024 – 8.13pm

The surge in coffee prices to the highest level since 1977 could force more consumers to save money by making their daily brew at home, in a boon for ASX-listed small appliance maker Breville.


That is according to Citi analysts who warned the rally in arabica futures, which hit a 47-year high of $US3.35 a pound on Friday, will result in higher costs for cafes that would likely be passed on to consumers. Nestlé, the world’s biggest coffee maker, said last month that it would raise prices and make packs smaller to blunt the impact of the more expensive beans.

Arabica prices jumped more than 30 per cent in November.
Arabica – the main type of coffee consumed in Australia – has surged about 70 per cent this year, making it one of the strongest performing commodities alongside cocoa, for which prices have more than doubled.
Citi said this would be positive for the at-home coffee market as it may bring new customers to the category, benefiting Breville given the popularity of the coffee machines it sells.
“The price of coffee at cafes around the world is at risk of rising from here, which could be positive for Breville as consumers may be more inclined to start making coffee at home to save money, particularly given ongoing cost-of-living pressures globally,” said Citi analyst Sam Teeger.

Shares in Breville have rallied 32 per cent over the past six months, helped by a bumper result in the 2024 financial year. Robust coffee machines sales in the US boosted Breville’s revenue to a record $1.53 billion and propelled earnings to the top end of guidance for the period.

Citi acknowledged that higher coffee prices could take longer to filter through to Breville than other brands given its “premium market position” – their coffee machines are typically the third or fourth brand that consumers buy.


Still, the broker has a price target of $36.51 on the stock, an increase of 7.5 per cent from current levels.

Perfect storm​

The rampant rally in coffee, one of the most traded commodities in the world, has been fuelled by concerns about adverse weather in top producer Brazil. The country experienced its worst drought in 70 years during August and September, followed by heavy rains in October, sparking fears that next year’s flowering crop could fail.


In June, the US Department of Agriculture forecast 2024/25 coffee production at 69.9 million (60kg) bags. But their latest update last month reduced that figure to 66.4 million bags, with further downgrades expected when Brazil’s National Supply Company releases its next update.

Prices of the cheaper robusta variety of coffee have also surged 86 per cent this year following a challenging growing season in top producer Vietnam. The country was hit by dry weather at the start of the season and heavy rains as the harvest started.

Coffee is grown in a relatively narrow tropical band, with key producers including Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, and Ethiopia. This concentration makes it vulnerable to adverse weather, especially in Brazil and Vietnam, which together account for around 56 per cent of global production.

“The rally [in coffee prices] has been driven by several factors, the most important being the risk to supply triggering panic buying from commercial buyers worried about shortages,” said Saxo Bank’s head of commodity strategy, Ole Hansen.

“Front loading of sales to the US ahead of potential tariffs may also play a part.”

 

[galumay]

Its interesting that the reported price increase has not flowed though to wholesale prices, let alone retail. As a commercial coffee roaster I can report my price for green beans from my supplier is unchanged for the last 2 years.

 

[qldfrog]

Its interesting that the reported price increase has not flowed though to wholesale prices, let alone retail. As a commercial coffee roaster I can report my price for green beans from my supplier is unchanged for the last 2 years.

I shoul buy some more at shopping today