Hmm Westfield have made it pretty clear
publicly they're not interested in CNP's assets, that they consider most outside their internal quality critera apart from a handful of 'prize' centres which no doubt they'd have been happy to snap up if the banks ran into admin and fire sold them. This could be spin to keep the price down but we've seen no indications that they're the least likely to put their hand up (I gather unless it was at a savaged discount to what they sold many of their previous assets to Centro for).
However, it appears the banks aren't about to give away equity, why would they, the lenders are the owners in the case of many of the banks onboard, in total insto's own 70% of the company and to fire sale it would be hurting themselves as much as the average punter.
We have a number of possible announcements for this month coming, ie a refin, put into admin, a part sale, takeover offer or an extension to match the US noteholders, one of these has to happen, as to which one..
The markets betting on the extension path or the offer path by their reaction to media reports, I'd say the extension is my position and that itself is still good news, what Centro needs is time to ride the storm out of the credit markets. If they can do that intact It'd be good for the banks, good for the shareholders, good for the lenders and not so good for lost opportunities for those who 'may or may not' have put a vulture price on the shares for the bids that may or may not have been placed.
To not add rumor, but it was 'reported' as we know (without confirmation) that a .90 price may or may not have been on the table. That's a market value of about 800 million bucks. Centro own 24 billion, 17 billion debt, 7 billion in net equity. If I was a lender and a shareholder like CBA I'd have laughed..sure..ok buddy.. I'II take my 800million and give you 7 billion... or alternatively I give you a one finger salute and talk to my banks buddies cause we all got in at many dollars per share and we want some of that back.
Reality is banks wont accept any table offer that's below the value of the group if they put it into admin themselves, though they don't want to go into admin hence the two extensions and possibly third.. so what happens.. tread water until the tide changes
That's my opinion on what will happen for the company though not related to the SP up or down, could go anywhere, dyor for that.