CNP - Centro Properties Group

[Lavender689]

CER or CNP at the current price levels:

It seems that if someone wants to make quick profit to cover their losses on CNP, it is lower risk to buy CER at 0.34-35/share (Friday close level) than buying CNP at above 40 cents. SP of CER seems to be far less volatile than CNP. If there is positive news/unconfirmed rumours, both seem to be going up quite substantially. This is despite that trading volume of CNP is far higher than CER.

This is just my personal observation.
Can anyone pls share their view on this? Thanks, Lavender689.

 

[metric]

ive noticed centro cnp isnt trading yet. does anyone know why? ive looked on the asx, centro site, plugger, businesspectator. no news.

could the ann we are hoping for, about to be released?

 

[vida]

Is anything trading yet? Its only 9.11 am by my clock.
Have you adjusted for end of daylight saving?

ive noticed centro cnp isnt trading yet. does anyone know why? ive looked on the asx, centro site, plugger, businesspectator. no news.

could the ann we are hoping for, about to be released?

 

[yang]

haha... I was about to say the same thing....

tis still in pre- open metric

0.41 indicative price

yang

 

[metric]

um....sorry. up here in qld, we dont have DS. but i should have realised as the morning show mentioned NSW was now off DS. oh well, no ann...just havta wait longer..

 

[metric]

centro is on the rise again. its gone up 5c (to 46.5c) in the last few minutes. ive looked at the news sites and the asx and centro site. i cant find a reason. the buy/sell ratio has improved dramatically. dont know why that is either....

 

[hsv2001]

centro is on the rise again. its gone up 5c (to 46.5c) in the last few minutes. ive looked at the news sites and the asx and centro site. i cant find a reason. the buy/sell ratio has improved dramatically. dont know why that is either....

Definately some abnormal trading considering all morning it was only hovering around the 41 - 43 mark, and as you said the sell/buy ratio is greatly increased. Perhaps the investors or potential takeover companies are getting in early???

 

[vida]

We know that deals are being negotiated behind the scenes but we don't know details or anything definite. The AFR article proposing a deal was denied as there was no definite agreement about any transaction to report, but that doesn't mean that it is not potentially going to happen and rumours have a way of becoming facts before long. This is what the trading is relying on I would think, I could be wrong. An announcement is pending about it.

They have refinancing extension to Sept pretty much which is a very positive step but this has not yet been officially announced which will probably happen late in the month. The last extension confirmation was announced on the very last day and it may happen this way again. I guess CNP want to use every possible day they have to get the best deal on it and why do it before expiry date if they may do better taking more time.

CNP are not in a rush, 'haste makes waste' and want to extract every bit of value from every bit of time they have been granted and everyone is patient

Definately some abnormal trading considering all morning it was only hovering around the 41 - 43 mark, and as you said the sell/buy ratio is greatly increased. Perhaps the investors or potential takeover companies are getting in early???

 

[Trojax]

Definately some abnormal trading considering all morning it was only hovering around the 41 - 43 mark, and as you said the sell/buy ratio is greatly increased. Perhaps the investors or potential takeover companies are getting in early???

It's difficult to know, the sentiment certainly seems to be adjusting which is reflecting in the current SP. I don't think it would be unreasonable if there were takeover companies waiting to accumulate on market at a discount as it's a given whatever the banks would be wanting will be significantly higher off market, however that said we'd expect to have a new major shareholder notice which we don't have (not to say couldn't in future, just stating as of now).

Primarly I believe it's speculation still around the news article from AFR re the confirming offers and the idea they will have to September soon, bit of jockeying by the insto's perhaps in anticipation for a sentiment run.

--

Vida I chuckled at your other post re the watched it go up and did nothing, I was well over my stop profit on averaged buy ins by 30%, lappy on, in my trading account and could have sold out any time and didn't, haha. I believe in the recovery (as stated 50 times above for various reasons) and guess in some ways I'd like to see it happen and willing to see it through to the end (hopefully not THE end if you know what I mean).

 

[vida]

Funny but no comments here on the SP strengthening somewhat today. Yes I think its the recent AFR article still resonating and belief there is something positive about to unleash in an announcement before long. There are profit takers selling and I don't blame them, others buying to make money on this later and those like me and Trojax holding patiently passing up quickies

It's difficult to know, the sentiment certainly seems to be adjusting which is reflecting in the current SP. I don't think it would be unreasonable if there were takeover companies waiting to accumulate on market at a discount as it's a given whatever the banks would be wanting will be significantly higher off market, however that said we'd expect to have a new major shareholder notice which we don't have (not to say couldn't in future, just stating as of now).

Primarly I believe it's speculation still around the news article from AFR re the confirming offers and the idea they will have to September soon, bit of jockeying by the insto's perhaps in anticipation for a sentiment run.

--

Vida I chuckled at your other post re the watched it go up and did nothing, I was well over my stop profit on averaged buy ins by 30%, lappy on, in my trading account and could have sold out any time and didn't, haha. I believe in the recovery (as stated 50 times above for various reasons) and guess in some ways I'd like to see it happen and willing to see it through to the end (hopefully not THE end if you know what I mean).

 

[metric]

its been reported on another forum that westfield (the poster thinks) was named on sky business news as interested in buying some lpt's in centro.

looking at recent history between westfield and centro, it is quite possible..

http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,22940812-462,00.html

could be an interesting day.

 

[Trojax]

its been reported on another forum that westfield (the poster thinks) was named on sky business news as interested in buying some lpt's in centro.

looking at recent history between westfield and centro, it is quite possible..

http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,22940812-462,00.html

could be an interesting day.

Hmm Westfield have made it pretty clear publicly they're not interested in CNP's assets, that they consider most outside their internal quality critera apart from a handful of 'prize' centres which no doubt they'd have been happy to snap up if the banks ran into admin and fire sold them. This could be spin to keep the price down but we've seen no indications that they're the least likely to put their hand up (I gather unless it was at a savaged discount to what they sold many of their previous assets to Centro for).

However, it appears the banks aren't about to give away equity, why would they, the lenders are the owners in the case of many of the banks onboard, in total insto's own 70% of the company and to fire sale it would be hurting themselves as much as the average punter.

We have a number of possible announcements for this month coming, ie a refin, put into admin, a part sale, takeover offer or an extension to match the US noteholders, one of these has to happen, as to which one..

The markets betting on the extension path or the offer path by their reaction to media reports, I'd say the extension is my position and that itself is still good news, what Centro needs is time to ride the storm out of the credit markets. If they can do that intact It'd be good for the banks, good for the shareholders, good for the lenders and not so good for lost opportunities for those who 'may or may not' have put a vulture price on the shares for the bids that may or may not have been placed.

To not add rumor, but it was 'reported' as we know (without confirmation) that a .90 price may or may not have been on the table. That's a market value of about 800 million bucks. Centro own 24 billion, 17 billion debt, 7 billion in net equity. If I was a lender and a shareholder like CBA I'd have laughed..sure..ok buddy.. I'II take my 800million and give you 7 billion... or alternatively I give you a one finger salute and talk to my banks buddies cause we all got in at many dollars per share and we want some of that back.

Reality is banks wont accept any table offer that's below the value of the group if they put it into admin themselves, though they don't want to go into admin hence the two extensions and possibly third.. so what happens.. tread water until the tide changes

That's my opinion on what will happen for the company though not related to the SP up or down, could go anywhere, dyor for that.

 

[vida]

Exactly, $800 million offer is peanuts and is a total waste of paper and legal fees for those companies who had their lawyers slave away day and night doing the due diligence and drafting the offer documents etc: lawyers gain

There is a rumour that the credit crunch is easing up so in time maybe even months away things will be better and after the next debt payment extension is settled and confirmed there will be a refinancing possible and all blue sky..

who knows, all I know is that I work each day and don't depend on CNP

always a day away

Hmm Westfield have made it pretty clear publicly they're not interested in CNP's assets, that they consider most outside their internal quality critera apart from a handful of 'prize' centres which no doubt they'd have been happy to snap up if the banks ran into admin and fire sold them. This could be spin to keep the price down but we've seen no indications that they're the least likely to put their hand up (I gather unless it was at a savaged discount to what they sold many of their previous assets to Centro for).

However, it appears the banks aren't about to give away equity, why would they, the lenders are the owners in the case of many of the banks onboard, in total insto's own 70% of the company and to fire sale it would be hurting themselves as much as the average punter.

We have a number of possible announcements for this month coming, ie a refin, put into admin, a part sale, takeover offer or an extension to match the US noteholders, one of these has to happen, as to which one..

The markets betting on the extension path or the offer path by their reaction to media reports, I'd say the extension is my position and that itself is still good news, what Centro needs is time to ride the storm out of the credit markets. If they can do that intact It'd be good for the banks, good for the shareholders, good for the lenders and not so good for lost opportunities for those who 'may or may not' have put a vulture price on the shares for the bids that may or may not have been placed.

To not add rumor, but it was 'reported' as we know (without confirmation) that a .90 price may or may not have been on the table. That's a market value of about 800 million bucks. Centro own 24 billion, 17 billion debt, 7 billion in net equity. If I was a lender and a shareholder like CBA I'd have laughed..sure..ok buddy.. I'II take my 800million and give you 7 billion... or alternatively I give you a one finger salute and talk to my banks buddies cause we all got in at many dollars per share and we want some of that back.

Reality is banks wont accept any table offer that's below the value of the group if they put it into admin themselves, though they don't want to go into admin hence the two extensions and possibly third.. so what happens.. tread water until the tide changes

That's my opinion on what will happen for the company though not related to the SP up or down, could go anywhere, dyor for that.

 

[eMark]

A rumour....??

Macquarie acquiring Centro Properties

http://www.thestreet.com/s/kass-10-rumors-making-the-rounds/newsanalysis/investing/10411618.html?puc=googlefi&cm_ven=GOOGLEFI&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

 

[redandgreen]

interesting..............

wonder if the AFR chooses to regurgitate the rumour tomorrow.

Quite likely that there will be an annoucement of some kind sooner rather than later. An interesting week ahead

Holding in anticipation of great things

 

[eMark]

I heard on the grape vine 2 weeks ago that CNP was going to get their debt extention till end of April, then I heard today from the same very reliable source that it will be extended till September.

Glenn Rufrano will return on Friday, so fingers crossed on Monday there will be a great announcement that he will have found a bank in the US to help their debt situation.

They will/should be able to sell their Wholesale funds for roughly $2.5 billion. So that should see the company back up on its feet (in terms of share price hopefully).

Their share price target is to reach $1.08 with in the next 2-3 months.

I don't know where this poster has disappeared too, but his predictions re April proved correct "from a reliable source", let's hope his second and third predictions re September, and a share price of $1.08 prove correct too....

 

[Ang]

The Rumours are half right, I have been able to get some info, and Macquarie is part of the takeover; however there are two camps at the moment. The First State camp, which involves the Commonwealth Bank and the Macquarie camp. It is muted that the two opposing bids and capital restructures are complex and very political due to the opposing banks evolved. I think this will be healthy as there will now be a bidding war on the two opposing bids which is too political to make any sort of announcements while you have your financer on one side of the bidding fence and another bank on the other side. I would say we will be waiting for the final week unless CNP wants to announce the extension first.
kind reg
ang01

 

[snowblind]

Hi all,
The following came through on Wed 9th April in the Wall Street Journal,

Centro Properties Group, a debt-laden Australian real-estate investment trust that owns 682 shopping centers in the U.S., faces an April 30 deadline to present a plan for repaying $3.4 billion in short-term debt that it failed to pay on time earlier this year. The company recently attracted preliminary buyout bids averaging $1 per share, according to people familiar with the matter, far less than the 10 Australian dollars (US$9.27) per share it traded for last.......

It basically re-iteterates the AFR report or does it?

What I really want to know is why would anyone be selling this stock at current levels when reports are coming through like these? Thanks.

 

[vida]

That's easy to see why people are selling at these levels, they are taking a certain profit if they bought anywhere from 23 cents to below what is current SP and there were many trades in those SP regions. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. We are trying for two in the bush

Hi all,
The following came through on Wed 9th April in the Wall Street Journal,

Centro Properties Group, a debt-laden Australian real-estate investment trust that owns 682 shopping centers in the U.S., faces an April 30 deadline to present a plan for repaying $3.4 billion in short-term debt that it failed to pay on time earlier this year. The company recently attracted preliminary buyout bids averaging $1 per share, according to people familiar with the matter, far less than the 10 Australian dollars (US$9.27) per share it traded for last.......

It basically re-iteterates the AFR report or does it?

What I really want to know is why would anyone be selling this stock at current levels when reports are coming through like these? Thanks.

 

[metric]

good article. it gives an indication of the relatively strong position centro is in.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Why-Centro-is-still-kicking-DPALB?OpenDocument

WHY CENTRO IS STILL KICKING

Given the state of the Australian and US share markets there is very little chance that by the April 30 banking deadline a proposal will be put before Centro directors and bankers that offers a big equity payout. Most of the proposals that have been put forward so far have been either for parts of the operation, or very complex in the way they structure any rewards for shareholders.

But at Centro we are seeing a remarkable illustration of shareholder power backed by some courageous directors and a CEO who is running the business well. In addition, the attitude being shown by banks is totally different to previous disaster periods. If the year were 1990, Centro would be in receivership irrespective of the consequences, but in 2008 it is highly likely that the banks will extend their deadline from April 30 to September 30. And they may have to go further.

The Centro shareholder power game works like this. In the base company, Centro Properties, the banks are owed some $4 billion, unsecured. Given the complexity of the group, one of the most valuable assets of Centro Properties is the right to manage the shopping centres of the entire Centro group. The contract yields more than $200 million each year – and rising.

If the banks exercise their security and appoint an administrator to Centro Properties, it will automatically trigger the disintegration of this fantastic asset. The banks are therefore stymied – they can't exercise their security without destroying their key asset. That gives shareholders and directors much more power than is normal in such situations because they must approve any reconstruction proposal

to continue, go to link above...