CNP - Centro Properties Group

[Birdster]

Centro respone to ASX query is out. Is claims the discussions with "parties and lenders" remain incomplete.

What a ramp from afr! They must of known that the article would cause a flurry!

Here is the link to the ann;

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistic...rchByCode&releasedDuringCode=W&issuerCode=CNP

 

[jaeyon]

Centro respone to ASX query is out. Is claims the discussions with "parties and lenders" remain incomplete.

What a ramp from afr! They must of known that the article would cause a flurry!

Here is the link to the ann;

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistic...rchByCode&releasedDuringCode=W&issuerCode=CNP

oh no. lets see how it opens tomorrow morning. what are some opinions here? hold or sell. i think ill hang onto mine to see how tomorrow unfolds

 

[metric]

im not sure we are allowed to offer opinion on selling or buying?

however, im going to hold. that news story today that caused all the fuss would have held a large element of fact. only the author probably didnt have the proof/permission to release the story.

i think the SP will fall dramatically when it opens. but if centro announces something simmilar to todays news story, next week, or within the next month, we have already seen what may happen.

remember braveheart, calling to his soldiers in the face of overwhelming odds charging at them......? he yelled "hold....., hold......, hold....."

 

[reece55]

oh no. lets see how it opens tomorrow morning. what are some opinions here? hold or sell. i think ill hang onto mine to see how tomorrow unfolds

Careful here jaeyon, remember no one can tell you what to do with your shares unless they are appropriately licensed and I can't see anyone on here doing that for free!

If we are going to have a chat about CNP, lets keep to why you think you should hang on i.e. some actual technical or fundamental reasons to do so...

Bottom line out of the announcement in response to the query - looks like the rumour mill is running wild - it is really anyones guess where the share price will end up tomorrow! The announcement is a standard "we don't know", which could mean anything.....

Cheers

 

[Birdster]

oh no. lets see how it opens tomorrow morning. what are some opinions here? hold or sell. i think ill hang onto mine to see how tomorrow unfolds

IMO, If some company says they are willing to pay .90 cents, then isn't that the lowest price? I would assume that the next step of the "incomplete discusions" would be an offer/ amount from Centro. My speculation would be a figure that of the value of the book price. the the party(ies) would counter offer and so on...

This of course would happen w/out anns till an agreement was reached.

Mind you, this is all spec. and is only my opinion using the information supplied from the afr column today and the ann response from Centro released today. Anything can happen.

As nearly always, I am wrong, so DOYR!

 

[reece55]

IMO, If some company says they are willing to pay .90 cents, then isn't that the lowest price? I would assume that the next step of the "incomplete discusions" would be an offer/ amount from Centro. My speculation would be a figure that of the value of the book price. the the party(ies) would counter offer and so on...

This of course would happen w/out anns till an agreement was reached.

Mind you, this is all spec. and is only my opinion using the information supplied from the afr column today and the ann response from Centro released today. Anything can happen.

As nearly always, I am wrong, so DOYR!

Birdster, the article, which mind you is sheer speculation, said that the TOP bid is 90 cents - this means this is the ceiling, not the floor.....

What makes you think the next step is necessarily an offer? The market has known that they have been in discussions with lenders and related parties for weeks.... Why is the price likely to be at book value - is there any logical reason to this view or facts that support your argument?????

As I said previously, if we are going to chat about CNP, lets hear some new, relevant information fleshed out.

Cheers Guys

 

[nioka]

What a ramp from afr! They must of known that the article would cause a flurry!

AFR are not in the habit of ramping. I expect there is some truth in their story and it is probably from a leak in the system. Possibly a deliberate leak. CNP are probably not in a position to give out any more information than they have done so far and probably will not do so until they have definite offers to make public. There are quite a few different opinions as to the value of CNP and, along with many others I have my own idea and a price that I will sell at. I intend to hold out for that. I'd like to think that CNP will continue in business and only sell the overseas assets. They have a good cash flow and should recover given time and a cooperating bank. Banks like cash flow and i can't see why CNP wouldnt be a good bank customer in the future.

 

[Birdster]

Birdster, the article, which mind you is sheer speculation, said that the TOP bid is 90 cents - this means this is the ceiling, not the floor.....

What makes you think the next step is necessarily an offer? The market has known that they have been in discussions with lenders and related parties for weeks.... Why is the price likely to be at book value - is there any logical reason to this view or facts that support your argument?????

As I said previously, if we are going to chat about CNP, lets hear some new, relevant information fleshed out.

Cheers Guys

It is logical to assume that negotiations are in place with the words "incomplete discussions" As with stating a price of book value was only speculitive, nothing more, nothing less, it was an opinion. It is OK to give an opinion isn't it?

If you are speculating that the article is "sheer speculation"??? That is giving your opinion just as I have. It's an opinion.

It's more the negotions process I'm talking about. Similar to negotiating buying property. Two parties, one makes an offer, and then it is counter offered. Simple business practice. I stated that I used the facts from both afr and Centro to speculate my opinion.

AFR are not in the habit of ramping. I expect there is some truth in their story and it is probably from a leak in the system. Possibly a deliberate leak....

Yes I agree Noika. It was more tounge in cheek that it was a ramp. But the article is the cause of the buying. I should of worded it better.

 

[jaeyon]

Careful here jaeyon, remember no one can tell you what to do with your shares unless they are appropriately licensed and I can't see anyone on here doing that for free!

If we are going to have a chat about CNP, lets keep to why you think you should hang on i.e. some actual technical or fundamental reasons to do so...

Bottom line out of the announcement in response to the query - looks like the rumour mill is running wild - it is really anyones guess where the share price will end up tomorrow! The announcement is a standard "we don't know", which could mean anything.....

Cheers

oh right sorry im new to the forums haha (ill admit i didnt fully read the terms and conditions )

now not quite related to CNP but its interesting to note the effect that the afr article had on CNP's share price movements today.

for those in the know, do the journos for afr undergo some kind of screen before they are allowed to publish in the afr. main reason for concern is that if a journalist owns shares in a company, they could exaggerate (not fabricate) information regarding the company and make a profit for themselves.

id like to think that the journos are ethical in this manner however its a dog eat dog world and someones gotta lose out.

 

[reece55]

It is logical to assume that negotiations are in place with the words "incomplete discussions" As with stating a price of book value was only speculitive, nothing more, nothing less, it was an opinion. It is OK to give an opinion isn't it?

I don't think it is Birdster. To quote Centro directly, who are essentially warning investors at this point, "At this time, there is no certainty or assurance that these discussions will lead to a transaction...."

Opinions are absolutely fine, in fact obviously that's what we are here for. But what I would be looking for is something that supports your opinion : i.e. cash flow numbers, comparable sales, etc.....

The bloomberg article for everyone is here

Cheers

 

[prawn_86]

oh right sorry im new to the forums haha (ill admit i didnt fully read the terms and conditions )

now not quite related to CNP but its interesting to note the effect that the afr article had on CNP's share price movements today.

for those in the know, do the journos for afr undergo some kind of screen before they are allowed to publish in the afr. main reason for concern is that if a journalist owns shares in a company, they could exaggerate (not fabricate) information regarding the company and make a profit for themselves.

id like to think that the journos are ethical in this manner however its a dog eat dog world and someones gotta lose out.

Im fairly certain that journos have to disclose if they own shares in that particular company they are writing about.

Although the shares could be in a company name or the wifes name and they wouldnt have to

 

[reece55]

oh right sorry im new to the forums haha (ill admit i didnt fully read the terms and conditions )

now not quite related to CNP but its interesting to note the effect that the afr article had on CNP's share price movements today.

for those in the know, do the journos for afr undergo some kind of screen before they are allowed to publish in the afr. main reason for concern is that if a journalist owns shares in a company, they could exaggerate (not fabricate) information regarding the company and make a profit for themselves.

id like to think that the journos are ethical in this manner however its a dog eat dog world and someones gotta lose out.

No worries jaeyon, welcome on board then, I haven't seen you before myself so good to have you on the site.... I'm sure we have all been guilty of not reading the fine print in our lives (at least most of us didn't do it in relation to our margin loans with Opes Prime!!!!)....

I'm not sure about the jurno screening, but the issue you raise is part of the reason why one has to be careful with this stock - the price hike looks to be heavily weighted to the AFR article and we don't know what vested interests the writers or indeed the press in general may have in this equation other than selling papers.... The last thing this stock needs at the moment is ramping, seems the AFR have done the job already!!!!

Cheers

 

[Trader52]

I have attended courses in negotiating and have been party to legal settlement negotiations. For what it is worth, this is my view of the negotiation process.

The price that you offer at the start is lower then what you may be prepared to pay. Often, the final price is within the middle 50% of the difference between your opening offer and what the seller indicates they want. So IF an offer of .90c a share has been made (I am only going on the news stories for that figure) then that will set the low base. If Centro is saying that the real value of its net assets is above that (for example $1.50), then it is usual for the agreed final price to be in the range of $1.05 to $1.35.

The above is just an example of how the process may go. I don’t know the actual baseline bid and offer. Centro has other options (partial sale etc).

By the way, don’t try too hard to apply logic only to SP. SP is a combination of logic and emotion.

Fire away!

 

[jaeyon]

I have attended courses in negotiating and have been party to legal settlement negotiations. For what it is worth, this is my view of the negotiation process.

The price that you offer at the start is lower then what you may be prepared to pay. Often, the final price is within the middle 50% of the difference between your opening offer and what the seller indicates they want. So IF an offer of .90c a share has been made (I am only going on the news stories for that figure) then that will set the low base. If Centro is saying that the real value of its net assets is above that (for example $1.50), then it is usual for the agreed final price to be in the range of $1.05 to $1.35.

The above is just an example of how the process may go. I don’t know the actual baseline bid and offer. Centro has other options (partial sale etc).

By the way, don’t try too hard to apply logic only to SP. SP is a combination of logic and emotion.

Fire away!

i think all who hold cnp(including me) hopes this happen so we can get out!

main concerns regarding todays afr article is that the source has not been disclosed. also, the cnn article above also states that one of the potential bidders denies they have made an offer (though mqg and another have declined to IMMEDIATELY comment).

interesting article on todays movement "here"

note that the article mentions CNP loans extended till 30 sept so me thinks that there is still some hope in CNP yet, however this might also be because they want to avoid larger losses

 

[Rocket man]

I am taking the view that this AFR reporter did not pull the 90c figure from his behind, Its a respected publication. I also saw some EXTREMELY strong buying today that was not just your comsec traders .. I reckon huge insto buying.

So.. given that the market is now aware of negotiations at or around this price then I think a CNP will dip tomorrow from profit takers but eventually track up in anticipation of announcement. There is a lot of upside potential .. and announcment will generally expected by the market I think.

 

[vida]

I am thinking it might have been wise of me to have sold out today, if not for the trading halt I would have probably done that. Its too hard when it all happens so fast and one is at work doing things that are necessary to make a living and one cannot focus properly on the market as it rockets and dives.

Its so unfair It seemed that it was only moments that I was thinking about selling and just coming to terms with it as it was so unexpected when all the action stopped and I was dead in my tracks and thought no more.. of course profit taking took over before the halt and again it will do so tomorrow.

I wonder who was buying up as it was massive quantities and amounts of money and whoever was buying at upwards trending SP would have been expecting a continuing trend upwards, is this when short sellers lose money?

Woosh....

 

[vida]

A snippet from "Egoli" website says: "Major banks also advanced on optimism generated by hopes that Centro Properties would be taken over, potentially avoiding writedowns for the banks."

So it seems that the CNP spike is far reaching and the banks would be wanting it to do well for their investors' sake as are all the stakeholders.

Where there is optimistic smoke there may be something to it. CNP are keeping a low profile around the speculations which is very commendable.

There is plenty of time for CNP to get the best deal and if anyone can do it they can.

 

[vida]

If the SP rose to or even above .90 cents over the next days, would that encourage the bidders to increase their offer? Does the current SP have a bearing on the valuation made by the bidders who at present would be trying to get a super bargain seeing an opportunity with the pressure CNP is under.

I am not quite sure how it all works with valuing the company and how the low SP may weigh on that valuation. Since it has improved today does that increase the attractiveness of CNP to the bidders whereby they may increase their offer(s)?

I am not terribly well educated in finance, equities and business. Probably I should not be dabbling at all with my level of knowledge but live do & learn.

 

[Julia]

.

Its so unfair
Woosh....

Sorry, Vida, but I had to smile at this.
Had a picture of the share market just being out to get you in a totally personal way!
Might be good to dispel any notion of the market being "fair" to any individual.
Cheers
Julia

 

[nioka]

A retired bank manager has suggested to me that in the circumstances where CNP have income which is capable of continuing to service the interest on the loans it is normal to have the loans extended for short periods and then reviewed regularly. I can not see where CNP has defaulted on interest payments and they are only having trouble refinancing existing loans. Has anyone seen any evidence that they would not be capable of meeting interest commitments. After all the banks need to have loans out earning interest for them.
It would be interesting to know who the buyers were today. If there was no insider trading it would be the surprise of the week.