CNP - Centro Properties Group

[ghostworld]

its nice to learn

thanks for that nioka... so the large bid wouldve been put in to knock the price up? (as it would seem as though it pulled it down slightly).

yang

Not really knocking price up. Lets say there's 30,000 shares on offer for sale @ .30c. At 4.00pm there are 3 buyers all wanting to buy this 30,000 shares. The reason they bid for .80c or some other higher amount is so that they will be first in line to get that first 30c on offer. The system actually works out all of the buyers bids and sellers offers at this time and lets you know an 'indicative bid'. This will be the price that person that offered to buy at 80c will actually end up paying.

 

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ann from centro...

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/...panyName=&principalActivity=&industryGroup=NO

 

[vida]

That's really an announcement from PPI and not coming from CNP. That PPI mob are aggressive and as nasty and conniving as any politician at election time. Where will it all end!!?? Oops "end" is a bad omen word to use, we want to know when will all the nonsense stop so the company and the SP can get back to business.

I note in the AFR there is an article that Slater & Gordon the law firm also being approached to run shareholder litigation against CNP, well that firm advises caution on rushing into legal proceedings. It very wisely says that premature litigation could destroy any hope CNP has of restructuring and negotiating the refinancing and recapitalisation it is in the process of doing which is a very delicate process.

SLater & Gordon say and I agree with them totally, that any legal threat to CNP at this stage could derail them and reduce any shareholder value there may have been. So we hope that the litigation lovers read, listen and think before they act. Patience is a virtue and its no use closing the barn door when the horse has bolted.

There is plenty of time for litigation later in the year when things have settled down and there is more certainty in the outcome of the current CNP strategies towards survival.

ann from centro...

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/...panyName=&principalActivity=&industryGroup=NO

 

[wilko66]

That's really an announcement from PPI ....

Hi Vida, I'm a CNP holder that bought in after the big fall & like many I'm still in a hole but consoled that at least I didn't buy in November.

I just wanted to say how much I'm enjoying your posts along with those of Trojax. It's great to hear balanced and rational reviews and opinions, please keep it up.

I hold a similar view to some expressed here (and it is based on my own personal plan and opinions)...if they survive there'll be upside...anything & any SP movement between now and the tabling of reliable news (ie from Centro Mgmt) to that effect or otherwise is moot considering my own plan.

In MY PERSONAL OPINION even in the worst case scenario NTA is still way better than 25c p/share so we're in a zone of "even if it get's worse I can't see how it can get worse...so why sell"

It is fact that several analysts have target prices b/w 60c & 75c but these factor in the unusual risk, possible firesale conditions and complexity of analysing the structure. Inherent in these analyses are NTA estimates that are higher. I am still optimistic despite the occasional lump in my throat.

Right now this forum is for me, as much a support group as a source of info

Please keep posting.

 

[cnpwellwisher]

Hey guys, from my username u can say that I have got good amount of CNP shares. I initially bought some at 0.53 in feb and some more at 0.25 just before 3-4 days.
Have u guys any guess what's the price per share the bidders are ready to pay i.e. macaquarie, blackstone, GE real estate in cause of a complete takeover ????
Do u guys think that we would be able to make a good amount of profit selling our shares to this bidders .....
Secondly is the price or bidding process going to be affected if Slater and Gordon file a lawsuit against the centro ????
If the bidders are successful in taking over the company is the price of CER going to increase (I got shares of CER too ) ????

 

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* Have u guys any guess what's the price per share the bidders are ready to pay i.e. macaquarie, blackstone, GE real estate in cause of a complete takeover ????

*Do u guys think that we would be able to make a good amount of profit selling our shares to this bidders .....

*Secondly is the price or bidding process going to be affected if Slater and Gordon file a lawsuit against the centro ????

*If the bidders are successful in taking over the company is the price of CER going to increase (I got shares of CER too ) ????

g'day cnpwellwisher. i guess it depends on the ammount of shares owed over a potential price offer. if the majority of shares were purchased by people over $5.00, then they wont be happy with $1.50. where as, i would as i bought in at 31c.
CNP is chin deep in the muck. last thing we need is shareholders creating legal 'waves'.
i feel confident in a management behaves unemotionally during stress. CNP is well led.

 

[sonicwind]

Vanguard became and ceased to become a substantial holder within the same week.

Looks like they gambled on some big positive news coming out last week, which didn't...

 

[vida]

From what I can see Vanguard only sold 10% of their holding yesterday which brought them under the required amount of shareholding so they ceased to be a substantial shareholder. They still hold massive quantity of shares from figures I saw on checking. Maybe they will sell off gradually each day as they cannot offload all in one day. We wait and see and who cares!!!

This is a huge risk and I trust no one takes my posts as encouraging them to stay investing in CNP as I am not sure of anything at all. I am just trying to figure it all out but my resources are as limited as anyone else's. Its a risk is all I can say but if it works out we will be happy and if not hopefully we will be happy anyway.

Vanguard became and ceased to become a substantial holder within the same week.

Looks like they gambled on some big positive news coming out last week, which didn't...

 

[Trojax]

Vanguard became and ceased to become a substantial holder within the same week.

Looks like they gambled on some big positive news coming out last week, which didn't...

Vanguard as they said when went over 5%, are an index based fund..they will drop in and out around this level on overall indices movements. When they came onto CNP they also came onto Valad and GPT, and as they drop their index holdings they drop back out of CNP and if check ASX announcements they also dropped just out of Valad and GPT as well today, it really doesn't mean SFA at all, they're just following the indices as per their business model on a whole.

I think they sold off 400,000 shares, out of what nearly 50 million shares traded traded today, hardly newsworthy or indicating anything.

 

[Trojax]

Hey guys, from my username u can say that I have got good amount of CNP shares. I initially bought some at 0.53 in feb and some more at 0.25 just before 3-4 days.
1) Have u guys any guess what's the price per share the bidders are ready to pay i.e. macaquarie, blackstone, GE real estate in cause of a complete takeover ????
2) Do u guys think that we would be able to make a good amount of profit selling our shares to this bidders .....
3) Secondly is the price or bidding process going to be affected if Slater and Gordon file a lawsuit against the centro ????
4) If the bidders are successful in taking over the company is the price of CER going to increase (I got shares of CER too ) ????

Will add point form to make easier:

1) No one does, no one even knows what bids are locked down and\or at what value or what component. Ie CAF\CAWF, whole company etc. We know nothing concrete so a concrete estimation is impossible. NTA is $1.31 according to Nabs latest data, though doesn't mean much if the refin doesn't happen.
2) I'd wait for the bidders, either way, I doubt we'll have the luxury of choosing
3) Its not Slater and Gordon, it's Maurice Blackman. IMO it's the stupidest timing with the most ill informed basis. If CNP go down, it'll be years before they even see anything and after IMF fees etc, it could be a fraction of any any benefit if they'd held out for a refin and recovery. Though effectively it does make it harder to motivate any potential takeover predator I doubt it would be a mitigating factor on it, the debt refin is the issue at hand.
4) Hypothetically, based on your assumption that there is a takeover of CNP, CER is 50% owned by CNP, so in effect a new owner of Centro would be the new 50% stakeholder. I'd say that would be positive as would remove the sentiment attached to CNP's current issues.

The overall fundementals haven't changed, just the timeline. The shorter we get to April 30 the more volatile things are becoming. I can only refer to is Rufrano stating there are bids (as to on what or how many we don't know), the frustrating part is will there be an announcement and are they in or out of the money.. He had a tele-conference with the bankers over easter to update them, I'd imagine that would have also covered offers received, overall or in components. We haven't had an announcement on this to date and no indication there will be yet, volume has been quite high this week. Overall nothing IMO has really changed, we're still waiting and hoping for positive news.

In the absence of facts I'm in a hold pattern, but am prepared to see it out (mentally and financially) in the belief the big lenders will extend again if there's no equity injection or sale, though really this is just my opinion, I can afford to lose (I have more than Vida here so a fair bit) but really if your sitting on CNP as a bet you need to win on rather than a speculative play in an overall portfolio then you've really got to consider what your risk ratio is overall and what it means to you as an individual.

 

[Trojax]

LOL about to head to bed, check the news and find my last paragraph above is pretty much substantiated.

"Bankers agree to extend Centro's debt deadline to avoid fire sale of assets"

* Carolyn Cummins, Sydney
* March 28, 2008

CENTRO Properties Group financiers have thrown the group's directors a six-month lifeline to repay $4.2 billion.

The decision to extend the Australian banks' deadline from April 30 to September 30, to coincide with the repayment deadline for the US bankers and bondholders, was made at meeting of all financiers last week in San Francisco.

Full article:

http://business.theage.com.au/banke...-avoid-fire-sale-of-assets/20080327-21y2.html

This is EXCELLENT news, hopefully there will be an official announcement on this tomorrow.

Worthy also of noting (again to be confirmed outside media article)

"Centro's bankers are also said to be happy to keep Centro as the manager of its $2 billion syndicate business, which is under attack from the Pelorus Property Group.

A meeting of Centro's MCS16 syndicate security holders was scheduled for Monday, but that has been postponed"

 

[vida]

Trojax, that is brilliant news!!! I just found out myself on another forum and am very pleased as you can imagine.

I was stressing a bit lately over whether I should sell out or buy heaps more, swinging between two extremes. Either way could be a huge mistake or the best thing to do. So I just decided to keep holding what I have and not risk more money on it but also not risk being out of it when things begin to glow again for CNP.

Its looking good now, very shiny and glowy and having another six months is just what the Glenn (Rufrano) needed to do things properly and save the company. If so many influential and resourceful people want it to succeed then it will.

Its obvious no one seriously financially connected to it can afford for it to go under especially not the banks. Also the world credit crunch might be eased in coming months and that would make all the difference, it cannot go on forever - there is always light at the end of tunnel at some stage.

Congratulations to the patient holders and no thanks to the negative apocalyptic depressing media reports, but they were great in depressing the SP and giving us opportunity to buy bargain basement

Whew that is handsome news indeed.

 

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that ann has been refuted. no such deal is done apparently...

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...-working-on-debt-extension-D68T4?OpenDocument

Troubled Centro Properties Group has denied a report that its lenders have agreed to extend a refinancing deadline to help the firm avoid a fire sale of assets.

Earlier, The Age reported that a decision to extend the Australian banks' deadline from April 30 to September 30 was made at a meeting of all financiers last week in San Francisco.

Centro told Reuters no such agreement has been reached, although the banks were working on an extension.

 

[MangaNOID]

Numbers of buyers now out way the sellers almost two to one! including the volume. Haven't seen that for a while. Cant see an announcement about the extension yet though.

 

[lingqi]

The news just makes me feel confused. Theage says both Australian and US banks agreed to extend Centro's debt to September 30. However, Bloomberg says "U.S. banks agreed to an extension on the remaining A$2.6 billion of debt, on condition the Australian creditors do the same." Centro even stated no such agreement has been made. What is going on?

 

[sting]

Sounds like a bit of scare mongering/price fixing via the media to me.

There are a few companies out their who would love to see centro go under, it seems the legal above board methods are failing so are they resorting to propaganda methods to confuse the smaller holders to bail out.

Those who have studied sun tzu will know what I mean.


SEMPER UBI SUB UBI

 

[oldblue]

According to the SMH, not all the Australian lenders have yet agreed to the conditions but discussions are continuing. The general tone of the article is pretty positive.

I don't think sun tzu is involved.

 

[sting]

According to the SMH, not all the Australian lenders have yet agreed to the conditions but discussions are continuing. The general tone of the article is pretty positive.

I don't think sun tzu is involved.

Well I hope he isnt involved personally either....: but surely you must agree his principals and teachings go hand in hand with share trading

 

[Bushman]

If you invest in CNP/CER, why not hedge that bet with an investment in IMF. As they say in their recent investor, they are counter cyclical in a bear market! Case book is likely to be bulging with CNP, CER, AFG, MFS and the like. Sure there will be some class action related to VRE as well.

Anyway maybe this belongs in an IMF thread.

 

[ghostworld]

Not suprised that Pelorus pulled another stunt. Not having enough votes to win, they've decided to delay the meeting. They've been very deceitful from the beginning trying to use scare tactics against naive investors. That might work with some retail investors but it looks like the institutions are still cool headed even in this bearish environment. Pelorus latest announcement takes the cake. See if anyone can make sense for the reasons as to why they pulled out of the meeting. (All I read is blah blah blah, due dilligence blah blah, scare tactic blah blah I hope your stupid enough to buy into this crap blah blah).

On another note, I find it amusing that the author below (Carolyn Cummins) has so quickly changed her negative tune. For example:

"PELORUS Property Group's raid on Centro Properties' $2 billion syndicate business hit a further hurdle yesterday when, at the 11th hour, it postponed until May 20 three meetings scheduled for coming weeks."

As far as I can remember there was no mention of previous hurdles. All the previous articles seems to indicate that Pelorus had a high chance of winning and that Centro was not doing enough. How do you defend against a misleading info campaign that treats shareholders as idiots?

Moving ahead, I hope that the CEO succceds in his plan to recap the company so that Centro maintain management control of the properties.



http://business.smh.com.au/centro-buys-time-for-carveup/20080328-2271.html


Centro buys time for carve-up

* Carolyn Cummins
* March 29, 2008

PELORUS Property Group's raid on Centro Properties' $2 billion syndicate business hit a further hurdle yesterday when, at the 11th hour, it postponed until May 20 three meetings scheduled for coming weeks.

Key investors said the deferment suggested Pelorus did not have the numbers to succeed in its quest to manage Centro's MCS 16, 11 and 19 NZ/I syndicates.

Pelorus needs 75 per cent of the vote to take over management of the syndicates. Its directors have argued that Centro should not be allowed to vote because it is not a direct investor in the syndicates. Centro has disputed the point.

The first meeting, for syndicate MCS 16, was set down for Monday at Pelorus's serviced office in Neutral Bay. It was to be followed by MCS 19 NZ/I on Wednesday and MCS 11 on April 10.

The delay came as Centro confirmed its Australian bankers were in "deep discussions" about extending the deadline to repay the first, $2.3 billion tranche of debt, from April 30 to September 30. It is understood an agreement was reached for the entire $4.2 billion to be repaid on the later date.

Centro said the April 30 cut-off did not give it time to conduct an orderly sale of the business. The group has another six months to find a buyer for all the business or to sell individual assets. The company's chief executive, Glenn Rufrano, planned to rescue the group by raising cash through a combination of selling its interest in the Australian and US wholesale fund and/or an equity injection. He planned to retain control of the funds management, syndicate business and centres.

Pelorus's chief executive, Stuart Brown, explained in a statement yesterday that it had deferred the syndicate meetings for six weeks because of uncertainty surrounding Centro's finance. In the notice to unit-holders, Pelorus also said it would be the direct manager of the syndicates but proposed to appoint Trust Company as the overall responsible entity, to avoid the same conflicts of interest and lack of transparency that it claims took place under Centro's tenure.

A spokesman for Centro hit back, saying: "Based on the proxies that Centro MCS believes have been lodged, Pelorus was staring at defeat at all three scheduled meetings."

The manager of Centro MCS Syndicates, Gerard Condon, added: "It is disappointing that Pelorus has cancelled the meetings of investors on incredibly short notice and without any credible reason, particularly given the confusing, misleading and aggressive campaign they have waged against Centro MCS."

Centro closed up 4c to 28.5c.