CNP - Centro Properties Group

[Trojax]

This statement: Quote:
Originally Posted by ricky0252003 View Post
Some brokers are paying the media to write bad news and they can play short-selling behind the scene and make profit.

is completely unacceptable on this forum unless Ricky is prepared to back it up with some evidence. It is not stated as an opinion, it is clearly stated as fact.

Now lets get this thread back on topic.

Ahhh I see, fair enough yeah I didn't read into that line fully, can see the issue, sorry! Though I don't like the media much I wouldn't go that far

Yeah back on topic, anyone care to make commentary then on todays bounce, the cause, the volume (wow!) at this point and if it's just a correlation with the XAO or due to Rufrano's letter to stakeholders yesterday after close... or are we seeing heavy short buy ups to cover positions

Also does anyone know the exact date COB the shortlist is due out this week?

 

[Joe Blow]

Why should I give details on how I predicted the price?

Because the accompanying analysis is the difference between some thought having gone into the price target and it simply being plucked out of thin air.

I could say CNP will go to $1 tomorrow but without analysis the price target is meaningless.

It you are not willing to abide by the forum rules then perhaps you should find another forum to post at.

Now as I said, lets get this thread back on topic. If anyone wants to discuss forum rules further than contact Kennas or myself via PM.

 

[nioka]

Why should I give details on how I predicted the price? It's like being a lawyer, I can tell a client the likely outcome of a particular case, but if the client wants to seek for further legal advice, they have to pay. I am not saying I want to charge people or watever. I am just saying how I did the analysis is my business. Whether u take my opinion is your business.

Why there are so few ppl giving good suggestions? It's all becoz of u admin kids who deleted others message and accuse them as "liars"

Give it up ricky. Rules are rules. It is Joe's rules and supervision that makes this the best forum around.

 

[moneymajix]

Announcement


Initial Substantital Shareholder Notice


Vanguard Australia Investments

17 March



http://www.vanguard.com.au/

Funds under management A$1.5 trillion worldwide
A$69 billion in Australia
Number of investors More than 22 million worldwide
Number of funds 140+ in US
30+ in Australia
Number of employees (crew) 11,700 in the US
150 in Australia

Looks like they have bought at much higher share price in the past.


Closed 30c
Volume - over 50 million

 

[Trojax]

This is great news for holders and accumulators

Given the disclosure letter is 17th, they very well could have been accumulating a much larger stake with the nearly 100 million shares sold between yesterday and today. Tomorrow should I'd imagine see some strength on the back of the announcement and hopefully a bit more info, I for one am excited!

Gotta love the guessing games going on in the news media, no one saw this coming, this proves again only those behind closed doors know what's really going on until they make it 'official'

 

[vida]

CNP is looking more positive again compared with yesterday at least but not compared with months ago of course. It is still a gravely endangered species.

I sold my holding at .26c yesterday on a fear impulse then the SP dived to its lowest ever - 23c! I relaxed being out of CNP and gave myself a night to think and sleep on it then this morning I bought back my previous holding plus 50% more at .266.

I wish I'd dived in at .25cents today and even 23c yesterday. I had to take time to think first and then the SP was up. We get no time to ponder with such volatility. He who hesitates is lost i suppose Also we have other things to do than watch the screen all day

I can't imagine how day traders get through day by day of just sitting at their screen making these buy/sell decisions for a living : I would be stressed and some nights sleepless - not a life for me

 

[DionM]

I can't imagine how day traders get through day by day of just sitting at their screen making these buy/sell decisions for a living

The money probably helps them sleep

Interesting times for CNP. I topped up my holdings last week at around 30c. Still not a substantial holding - I am still treating it like I would treat a speculative miner. I have been resisting buying more, I have rules about maximum exposure to a certain stock so it has been hard not wanting to buy more as the price dropped (having said that, if I didn't have my rules I would have been topping up all the way down, so I'm still better off).

I'm in CNP for the long term.

 

[Trojax]

CNP is looking more positive again compared with yesterday at least but not compared with months ago of course. It is still a gravely endangered species.

I sold my holding at .26c yesterday on a fear impulse then the SP dived to its lowest ever - 23c! I relaxed being out of CNP and gave myself a night to think and sleep on it then this morning I bought back my previous holding plus 50% more at .266.

I wish I'd dived in at .25cents today and even 23c yesterday. I had to take time to think first and then the SP was up. We get no time to ponder with such volatility. He who hesitates is lost i suppose Also we have other things to do than watch the screen all day

I can't imagine how day traders get through day by day of just sitting at their screen making these buy/sell decisions for a living : I would be stressed and some nights sleepless - not a life for me

Hey Vida, you've been on this ride same as myself and others I guess, sticking to the basic premise that underlying value remained intact, how good was your rethink timing lol! I know it's been a terrible ride for the longies but hopefully this is the first sign of the behind the scenes players showing their hands in an official sense. I even wonder on the last 2 days if there's not more than one mixing it up here, Vanguard already had a stake from November but not sure on what %, the trading shows the last 2 days that either they or someone else is buying up, perhaps their increasing holdings, perhaps someone else also taking a position in anticipation of a refin deal from themselves (double dipping) or even a takeover. It makes sense if someone like Vanguard was going to front the 5 billion that they take a stake and capitalise on the rise in share price as a bonus imo.

I like you increased my stake on 17th very substantially @.25, lol I felt somewhat nausous hovering over that buy button lol, DCA is down to .35 now, still just out of the money after 7 consecutive pickups, still looking at it as an LT, hopefully the ann and some more substantial debt resolution in the coming weeks will translate into stability and growth for the 12-36 monthers like me

(I too reckon DTrading is a killer way to make a living, talk about heart attack material lol, I can say I'm sure I'd blow a valve on this market lol!. I do what I do best, make money on industry deals, live simple and basic despite income, invest long term, and stay away from drugs LOL).

 

[ghostworld]

Announcement

Initial Substantital Shareholder Notice

Vanguard Australia Investments

17 March

http://www.vanguard.com.au/

Looks like they have bought at much higher share price in the past.

Closed 30c
Volume - over 50 million

I always thought that Vanguard only provides index linked managed funds products. Looks like they are custodians as well. The biggest holder from that annexure was JP Morgan with 33,789,888 shares in CNP. JP Morgan is already on the substantial holder list.

Reading into the CEO's letter, I get the indication that they will try to run an orderly review of the bids. Doesn't look like they will go into a trading halt until they make a decision sometime in the future (I guess late next month). CNP's actions since the ordeal doesn't appear desperate. Compare this with ABC learning who immediately made a deal with JP morgan to offload 60% of the US assets. There is no way to determine if it was a good deal or not until the details are sorted out. In my opinion the deal could have only been in the favour of JP morgan. Eddy made a quick announcement before they have determined the details of the deal just to save himself from a margin call (He failed in that attempt anyway and lost everything).

Hopefully information through the media or CNP announcement will provide us with more details. I would love to know who the bidders are, what they are bidding and how much they are bidding in the coming weeks.

 

[vida]

Hey Trojax: What you just described would be insider trading a criminal offence so I doubt if that is the scenario with this big buying lately. Vanguard may simply want a significant controlling interest in CNP and with their past very expensive holding, it makes sense they would be very concerned with what is happening to the company. I think they want to have influence with CNP management & buying massive amounts of shares would give them that. Its all about protecting their investment and of course making more money. As they look after their interests a side effect is that it benefits us as well (i hope)

I even wonder on the last 2 days if there's not more than one mixing it up here, Vanguard already had a stake from November but not sure on what %, the trading shows the last 2 days that either they or someone else is buying up, perhaps their increasing holdings, perhaps someone else also taking a position in anticipation of a refin deal from themselves (double dipping) or even a takeover. It makes sense if someone like Vanguard was going to front the 5 billion that they take a stake and capitalise on the rise in share price as a bonus imo.

 

[Trojax]

Hey Trojax: What you just described would be insider trading a criminal offence so I doubt if that is the scenario with this big buying lately. Vanguard may simply want a significant controlling interest in CNP and with their past very expensive holding, it makes sense they would be very concerned with what is happening to the company. I think they want to have influence with CNP management & buying massive amounts of shares would give them that. Its all about protecting their investment and of course making more money. As they look after their interests a side effect is that it benefits us as well (i hope)

It's an interesting question overall but is legit, eg CBA are both a stakeholder and debtor, as is JP Morgan (who was the main stakeholder in the Vanguard purchase, Vanguard simply acting as an investment agent). Heaps of companies banks or creditors are players on both sides as the lender and a holder. As to how they 'seperate' those interests I couldn't say, perhaps someone here with legal expertise or knowledge on this could explain how they do it.

 

[ghostworld]

It's an interesting question overall but is legit, eg CBA are both a stakeholder and debtor, as is JP Morgan (who was the main stakeholder in the Vanguard purchase, Vanguard simply acting as an investment agent). Heaps of companies banks or creditors are players on both sides as the lender and a holder. As to how they 'seperate' those interests I couldn't say, perhaps someone here with legal expertise or knowledge on this could explain how they do it.

There's meant to be a 'chinese wall' between the investment team and the lending team. ASIC and ASX rules applies here and they are not meant to be disclosing confidential information from one side to the other. As long as they are trading without insider knowledge then there should be no problems. In practise, I think one side would know exactly what the other knows. I don't think they would be stupid enough to blatantly break this rule. I don't see anything wrong with the recent buying or selling by the banks.

 

[yang]

has anyone any guesses why centro closed @ 2.10 yesterday? I cant find any info / announcements anywhere...

 

[oldblue]

has anyone any guesses why centro closed @ 2.10 yesterday? I cant find any info / announcements anywhere...

I thought the whole market closed early for Easter.

Must say I didn't follow closely - too busy getting away for Easter!

 

[ghostworld]

has anyone any guesses why centro closed @ 2.10 yesterday? I cant find any info / announcements anywhere...

No new announcements. Only thing I read in AFR was that there are 6 international bidders involved. Sounds like it will be an offer for the whole group as opposed to parts of Centro's business (Wholesalefunds).

 

[Trojax]

No new announcements. Only thing I read in AFR was that there are 6 international bidders involved. Sounds like it will be an offer for the whole group as opposed to parts of Centro's business (Wholesalefunds).

Think he meant 2:10pm

http://www.asx.com.au/about/operational/trading_calendar/asx/2008.htm

9. Normal trading ceases at 14:10 (Sydney time)

 

[metric]

centro told to sell assets

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Centro-told-to-sell-assets-D22DD

 

[vida]

Wow this is a big feature in the business news today. At least we discover in there somewhere that Rufrano has been busy in USA this weekend trying to work things out sacrificing his easter break with his family no doubt. We would never otherwise know anything is afoot as CNP management is not making any press releases to assuage shareholders etc. and keep SP steady.

I think it will be ok as the banks are showing quite a lot of restraint and patience, supporting CNP's attempts, pressuring a bit of course only natural as I would to a debtor. The bank's depend on CNP survival as well as CNP depends on the banks so this co-dependancy of these two powerful entities will lead to a good outcome the only question is when will it all happen.

The sooner the better I believe and hope so. It could all end badly too but this is not the most likely outcome - what do you think?

centro told to sell assets

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Centro-told-to-sell-assets-D22DD

 

[ghostworld]

centro told to sell assets

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Centro-told-to-sell-assets-D22DD

The original article is available at SMH.com.

------------------------
Centro told to sell assets

* Carolyn Cummins and Danny John
* March 24, 2008

BANKERS to the debt-ridden Centro Properties Group are pressing the shopping centre owner to speed up the sale of key assets to bring down its mountain of liabilities as the company fast approaches its debt re-financing deadline.

The Herald understands the group's lenders and bondholders met Centro's recently appointed US chief executive, Glenn Rufrano, in San Francisco at the weekend, updating them on its plans to restore financial confidence in its business.

These included finding buyers for Centro's stakes in its US and Australian unlisted funds that own significant chunks of its retail centre property portfolio and an equity injection into the main group itself.

But it is understood that the banks, which are owed almost $4 billion in short-term debt, of which at least $2 billion loaned by its Australian lenders needs refinancing before April 30, want to see a greater commitment towards more asset sales.

The secret Easter meetings were held as Mr Rufrano considers offers for Centro's share in the two wholesale funds. But institutional investors said last week they held little hope that any firm bids had been proffered to the group.

Brokers said although four parties - Mirvac, Mulpha, GE Capital and Blackstone - had expressed interest in conducting further due diligence on the business, they were not necessarily the frontrunners.

The deadline for expressions of interest in the two funds was last week.

Mr Rufrano issued a statement last Wednesday saying various data rooms were open, with companies representing local and offshore interests granted access in order for them to undertake due diligence.

"Once formal bids are received and evaluated, the board will have the necessary information to determine the optimal strategy in the best interests of all Centro shareholders," Mr Rufrano said.

Unwillingness on the part of potential buyers for Centro's holdings in the funds, of which the group intends to hang on to the management rights, and its plunging share price are said to be complicating the negotiations over the company's future.

Its securities closed last week at just 27.5c, giving it a market capitalisation of $232.4 million, a far cry from its $6.9 billion value only six months ago.

Centro is also having to re-organise its debt repayments at a time when the global credit crisis has pushed up the price of servicing new loans to stratospheric levels above the official cash rate.

The prospects for the disposal of its US shopping centre business, whose debt-backed acquisition last year helped trigger Centro's financial crisis, is being further undermined by the US economy's plunge towards recession.

The company's bankers are said to be still keen to avoid putting Centro into administration given that its complex management and financial structure will take time to unwind and even longer to produce enough cash to go around.

Nonetheless, Centro's competitors and potential buyers have all said they would prefer to buy separate assets rather than what is currently being offered.

http://business.smh.com.au/centro-told-to-sell--assets/20080323-2147.html

---------------------------

I read that article titled 'Centro told to sell assets' and thought 'so what's new?'.

The American bankers have extended till sept and Australian bankers have extended only until the end of April. The article tries to confuse this point to sensationalise their story. I think by April management will have enough time to analyze the bids and make an announcement if they are going to get anything close to fair value. The more pressure from banks the less likely they are going to get closer to fair value. So I wonder where SMH got their info from?

Reading into the article it seems like the head of property journalist for SMH had gotten her information from institutional investors and not from bidders or CNP themselves.

 

[metric]

either the banks want to be kept more in the loop or the article was written to cause emotion amongst shareholders ?

or the author had nothing else to write.