CNP - Centro Properties Group

[michael_selway]

Oversold? Its still a solid earning company right? Anyone here buying it today? Im not exactly all that clued up on property trusts

Hm **** this might go below $1

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 58.7 47.2 50.4 53.6
DPS 39.8 47.3 50.4 53.9

thx

MS

 

[hardcoremike]

hi michael. excuse my ignorance cause i'm still a beginner.
but what makes you say it will go below $1?

Thanks alot.

 

[ROE]

If it cant refinance its Debt in Feb it could goes belly up so it's not oversold
Centro is highly gear so most of the company asset is debt.

It could be force to fire sale if it cant refinance its debt.

I'm staying the hell away

Could be the beginning of the big snow ball for properties now that debt is no longer cheap and they cant
make enough income to cover debt repayment and or people would not lend money to anyone any more
not even to their own family

 

[vishalt]

So, anyone up for shorting Westfield or Stockland? A 76% gain on CNP would hit certainly hit the spot (if you were short ofcourse)

 

[chops_a_must]

So, anyone up for shorting Westfield or Stockland? A 76% gain on CNP would hit certainly hit the spot (if you were short ofcourse)

I am.

Just looking for some of the weaker charts. This is likely to put a down trend in the sector as a whole at the very least...

 

[tronic72]

CNP could be a good opportunity for those with big ones. I don't think the Market will let it collapse because the repercussions could make today's actions seem like Christmas Day.

My 2c

PS. Mine aren't big enough for such action.

 

[waz]

Does anyone know of any large overseas listed REIT?

Most of the american ones are small, the rest have been taken over by Australian trusts.

From what I can see, most American REITS have only fallen by 2-4% overnight, although most have fallen in half over the year. I would have thought these trusts would have been higer overgeared compared to Australia with credit once being so cheap.

By the way, for those that say 70% gearing into property is way too much and an unwise move. What do you say about all those Australian investors who buy into property with 90% gearing? Buying a place worth 400k on an income of 50k a year. shouldn't we more worried about that bagging out millions of aussie property investors and not just Centro????

 

[hacheln_mice]

I for one think it has been oversold. I bought in at market opening at 2.30 and was considering again a buy when it dropped below 1.60.

Besides the cancellation of the distribution and the withdrawal suspension, there is really no new news. We have known about these refinancing problems for months.

40c per share profit forcast and a share price of $1.65 is damn good.

Keep in mind that besides todays drop, it has fallen 85% since may.
According to my basic stats its market cap is only 1.3bil

is it really worth 1/20th the value of westfields??? When it it manages of 26bil

When panic sets in, logic and fundamentals (along with shareholder capital) goes out the window. It was interesting that a lot of comsec clients bought CNP hand over fist yesterday . I don't see the appeal of buying stocks that are in free fall unless you're an institution. If you play with fire, then you're asking to get burned.

 

[Awesomandy]

I don't see the appeal of buying stocks that are in free fall unless you're an institution. If you play with fire, then you're asking to get burned.

Such as seeing it drop another 60% within 30min of the market opening. It's now at 50c. Whoops... Looks like there migh be an influx of people lined up to get refunds at the department stores this week to cover their margin loans.

 

[numbercruncher]

Whoa - Maybe Centros retail tennants might get to snap up their own shops freehold for less than a years rent ?

Contagion anyone ? This is gotta spread like a nasty disease ....



New rule ? *Question anyone dependant on Debt*

 

[tronic72]

This is straight of my eTrade.

CNP: (-55.147%)

Wow. How many more billion just disappeared?

This is carnage.

 

[waz]

Interesting, market cap is now less than 500mil, surely if they sold absolutly everything, paid out their loans, the equity left over would be more than 500mil.

 

[numbercruncher]

This is straight of my eTrade.

CNP: (-55.147%)

Wow. How many more billion just disappeared?

This is carnage.

Their market cap was reduced to like 1.5b yesterday, so they "only" lost less than a b today Yesterday was like a 3b wipeout I thinks ?

 

[chops_a_must]

Why oh why did I close out my shorts EOD yesterday on this? Lol!

If it comes back up enough, it might be worth another punt.

 

[ROE]

Interesting, market cap is now less than 500mil, surely if they sold absolutly everything, paid out their loans, the equity left over would be more than 500mil.

Not if they pay a premium for those property in most case they did
so in a fire sale you may get 30% or more less than the actual value on the book

 

[trinity]

Feels like a nosedive...

Even the house made of bricks has fallen ... :bricks1:

How does a company recover from a wipe out like that?

 

[Sean K]

Here's a broker ahead of the curve:

1044 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Centro Properties (CNP.AU) and Centro Retail (CER.AU) both downgraded to Underperform by Macquarie on uncertainty surrounding debt refinancing. Says CER's "operating earnings risk remains if the US economy deteriorates further, leading to a decline in occupancy levels." Also believes CNP will be required to sell assets at a loss, to raise cash to pay down debt and could "potentially raise equity at a deep discount." CNP down 54% at 63.5 cents; CER off 29% at 60 cents. (WEL)

Underperform? WTF!!!

Actually, I suppose that means they underperform from this position which will be ordinary. I wonder what their recommendation was 2 days ago?

 

[Sean K]

Hooly dooly, something's out of whack with these numbers:

1117 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Citi cuts Centro Properties (CNP.AU) price target to A$2.33 from A$8.03 after CNP announced a 14% earnings downgrade for this FY. "With assumptions of a 1% margin increase in US debt and 1.2% for domestic debt in the forecast, there may be further downside," Citi says in client note. "The timing of the refinancing in February more than anything else will influence CNP's strategic review outcomes, although we expect asset sales from lower geared (35%) funds such as Centro Australia Wholesale Fund, in which CNP has a 50% interest with asset values of A$2.6 billion in the intervening period. The tightening of the liquidity in both the offshore and domestic lending markets, coupled with its overall look-through gearing, has caused CNP to be pressured by its lenders to reposition the business." Last trade down 71 cents, or 52%, at 65 cents. (ABH)

14% earnings downgrade results in a 60% ish target cut?

 

[nioka]

CNP have valuable assets and must now be a takeover target. I guess Westfield are sizing up the situation as will be some of the larger super funds. To cash in on this all you need to do is find the true value before the eventual offer is made. Nothing like a fire sale to bring out the bargain hunters.

 

[lamot1]

CNP have valuable assets and must now be a takeover target. I guess Westfield are sizing up the situation as will be some of the larger super funds. To cash in on this all you need to do is find the true value before the eventual offer is made. Nothing like a fire sale to bring out the bargain hunters.

Yeah Westfield in particular would definitely be interested I'd say. I think they would be more likely to cherry pick some of CNP's best assets at bargain basement prices rather than attempt to buy the entire company and their debt problems.

Traders seem to be having a field day - 270m traded from 850m shares on issue. There was some big profits to be made on this one in the last two days, both on the way down and back up from today's low. Then again its always easy to see the bottom in hindsight, probably takes a little more nerve to actually execute the trade while its still falling. Think of those that bought in yesterday only to see it down another 50% this morning!