China vs. USA: Why a military conflict may happen and military might compared

[basilio]

Desert storm should really tell everyone just what the americans are capable of in a traditional military vs military conflict.

Indeed. And that is the issue here. I don't think anyone else sees this as a traditional military conflict. Asymmetric warfare is now recognised as a far cleverer and more potent form of warfare than just overwhelming military superiority. And lets remember that the CCP under Mao Tse Tung as well historical Chinese military tacticians have been the strongest exponents of this form of warfare.

It's been noted a couple of times now that when the US Military war games potential conflicts around Taiwan they lose the battle,
And as rederob noted China is not necessarily going to stage any sort of traditional war. A blockade would be just as effective.

My concern however is that if hostilities did break out both sides would have such abundant conventional and nuclear capacity on hand that keeping the conflict non nuclear may well be impossible. For example what would the US response be if an aircraft carrier was attacked and sunk by a fleet of small gunboats ? Grin and bear it ? Hardly. And that scenario spells Armageddon .

 

[Clansman]

You have no idea what goes into planning for war whereas I wrote official Reports on support capability. It is you who is out of his depth here.
If China wanted to act on Taiwan it would merely implement a blockade. The international community accepts the "one China" policy so would have no cause to act.
That aside, I note you were unable to address the challenge I set for you in an earlier post. Are you up for it or are you going to indulge in more waffle?

You need to give it a rest. You are no more than an internet liar.

You have no idea what goes into planning for war whereas I wrote official Reports on support capability. It is you who is out of his depth here.
If China wanted to act on Taiwan it would merely implement a blockade. The international community accepts the "one China" policy so would have no cause to act.
That aside, I note you were unable to address the challenge I set for you in an earlier post. Are you up for it or are you going to indulge in more waffle?

You need to give the lies a rest for a day or two. You claimed that China had one of the most advanced aircraft carriers in the world and that most of its fleet is superior to the USA.
China only has 2 active aircraft carriers and 1 of them was built in the Ukraine in 1985 then cannibalized by China in 2000.
2 active aircraft carriers is exactly 50% of the Japanese aircraft carrier contingent. That's China's fleet, 2 carriers, 1 which is nearly 40 years old.

Here's some history of half of China's aircraft carrier contingent. The Laoining was originally known as the Riga and then the Varyag. It's a comedy of epic proportions so typical of something you'd expect of China.

History[edit]​

Origin[edit]​

For other ships with the same name, see Russian ship Varyag.
The ship was laid down as Riga at Shipyard 444 (now Mykolaiv South) in Mykolaiv, Ukrainian SSR, on 6 December 1985.[12][13] Design work was undertaken by the Nevskoye Planning and Design Bureau.[14] Launched on 4 December 1988, the carrier was renamed Varyag in late 1990, after a previous similarly named cruiser launched in 1899. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, the ship was only 68% complete.[1] Construction was halted, and the ship was put up for sale. The name Varyag was then adopted by another cruiser launched in 1983.

Sale[edit]​

Ukraine approached China, India, and Russia as potential buyers.[1] China sent a high-level delegation in 1992, which reported that the ship was in good condition and recommended a purchase. However, the Chinese government declined to purchase the ship because of the international diplomatic situation at the time.[15] Unable to find a buyer, Ukraine left the ship to deteriorate in the elements.[16]

In 1998, the rusting hulk was sold at auction for $20 million to Agencia Turistica E Diversoes Chong Lot Limitada, a company from Macau. Chong Lot proposed to tow Varyag to Macau, where the ship would be converted into a $200 million floating hotel and casino.[17] Western observers were suspicious, since Chong Lot had no listed telephone number, was not located at its listed address, and was run by former officers in the Chinese Navy. Officials in Macau also denied Chong Lot's application to operate a casino. However, analysts noted that Varyag had deteriorated too much to be used as an operational warship and pointed out that the Chinese Navy was concentrating on submarines.[13][16] The Soviet carriers Kiev and Minsk had also been sold to China as tourist attractions.

In January 2015, further details emerged in an interview with Hong Kong-based businessman Xu Zengping by the South China Morning Post. Xu, a former military basketball player, reported that he had been commissioned by the PLAN to purchase the vessel on its behalf, with the floating hotel and casino as a cover story. He was warned that the Chinese Navy did not have the budget to buy the ship, and the Chinese government did not support the purchase. However, Xu was so impressed when touring the ship that he resolved to purchase it using his personal funds. The previous year, Xu had borrowed HK$230 million from a Hong Kong business friend, spending HK$6 million to create Chong Lot as a Macau shell corporation. He described a harrowing negotiation in Kiev, lubricated by bribery and liquor, which helped to arrange victory at the auction. As a precaution, he shipped 40 tonnes of the carrier's blueprints to China overland in eight trucks.[15][18]

Transfer to China[edit]​

Ex-Varyag under tow in Istanbul in 2001
The passage from Ukraine to China was even more troublesome than the purchase. In June 2000, Varyag was taken under tow. As the tugboat approached the Bosphorus, Turkey denied permission for the ship to pass through, citing the risk that a gust of wind would turn the ship widthwise and block the entire strait. Varyag spent the next 16 months being towed around the Black Sea, accruing towing charges of $8,500 a day as Chong Lot stopped paying its bills. The tugboat operator compared its fate to the Yellow Fleet that was stuck in the Suez Canal for eight years, and French thrillseekers even landed a helicopter on the ship.[16] Meanwhile, Chinese officials negotiated with Turkey, offering trade and tourism concessions.[19]

In August 2001, Turkey relented and agreed to allow the ship to pass. On 1 November 2001, the Bosphorus was cleared of all other traffic as Varyag was towed through.[19][20] On 2 November, Varyag also passed through the Dardanelles without incident. On 4 November, Varyag was caught in a force 10 gale and broke adrift while passing the Greek island of Skyros. The ship was taken back under tow on 6 November, after one sailor died while attempting to attach the tow lines.[21][22]

The Suez Canal does not permit passage of "dead" ships – those without an on-board power source – so the hulk was towed through the Strait of Gibraltar, around the Cape of Good Hope, and through the Straits of Malacca at an average speed of 6 knots (11 km/h) across the 15,200-nautical-mile (28,200 km) journey. The tugboat fleet called for supplies en route at Piraeus, Greece; Las Palmas, Canary Islands; Maputo, Mozambique; and Singapore. Varyag entered Chinese waters on 20 February 2002, and arrived 3 March at the Dalian naval shipyard in northeast China. The costs included $25 million to the Ukrainian government for the hull, nearly $500,000 in transit fees and $5 million for 20 months of towing fees.[citation needed]

Xu Zengping estimated in 2015 that his total out of pocket cost was at least US$120 million. He insisted that he had never been reimbursed by the Chinese government, and had spent the last 18 years repaying his debts, in part by selling properties such as his home. A source familiar with the acquisition explained that the naval official, Ji Shengde, who initiated the mission had been in prison because of smuggling.[23]

Contrary to initial reports that the ship had no engines, Xu reported that all four original engines remained intact at the time of purchase, but had been shut down and preserved in grease seals.[24] A refit restored them to working order in 2011.

Modernization and refit[edit]​

701st Institute was tasked to redesign Varyag with Zhu Yingfu (朱英富) and Wu Xiaoguang (吴晓光) were assigned respectively as the general designer and deputy general designer. Wang Zhiguo (王治国) was assigned as the general system engineer, and Yang Lei (杨雷) was assigned the general supervisor.[25] The workload of converting Varyag for operational use was equivalent to building ten new destroyers.[25] Varyag was moved in June 2005 to a dry dock at Dalian (38.935°N 121.6141°E). Her hull was sandblasted, scaffolding erected, and the ship's island was painted in a red marine primer to treat metal corrosion.[26]

Liaoning at Dalian, China
Observers have noted the installation of Type 348 active electronically scanned array (AESA) Radar (four arrays) and Sea Eagle radar.[citation needed] The air defence system consists of the Type 1130 CIWS and the HQ-10 missile system. The anti-ship missile tubes would not be used, freeing up internal space for hangar or storage use. Russia has explored similar modifications to her sister ship Admiral Kuznetsov.[27]

On 8 June 2011, General Chen Bingde made the first public acknowledgement of the ship's refit.[28] On 27 July 2011, the Chinese Defence Ministry announced it was refitting the vessel for "scientific research, experiment and training".[29]

In 2018, Asia Times reported that Sun Bo (executive), a general manager of China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, had allegedly passed on technical details of the Liaoning to the Central Intelligence Agency. Sun was a general manager at the Dalian shipyard where the ship's refurbishment was done.[30]

Sea trials and handover[edit]​

The ship undertook her first sea trials from 10 August 2011 to 15 August 2011.[31] On 29 November 2011 the carrier left port for her second set of trials.[32][33][34] The carrier completed her eighth sea trial between 7 and 21 June 2012 and returned to Dalian. In July 2012, the ship set out for the longest trials thus far, 25 days.[35] The carrier completed sea trials in early August 2012 and loaded Shenyang J-15 aircraft and KJ-88, YJ-83K and YJ-91 missiles in preparation for weapons systems trials.[36]

During sea trials, Liaoning experienced a steam burst in the engine compartment which forced crew to evacuate some parts of the ship, and the ship lost power. The problem was ultimately resolved and power was restored, although the time duration of the problem has not been released by military officials.[37]

On 23 September 2012, the aircraft carrier was handed over to the PLAN, and was commissioned on 25 September 2012.[38] At the commissioning ceremony, the carrier was officially named Liaoning, in honour of the province in which she was retrofitted.[39][40] On 26 December 2012, the People's Daily reported that it would take four to five years for Liaoning to reach full capacity.[41] As it was a training ship until 2018, Liaoning was not assigned to any of China's operational fleets.[42]

According to geopolitical analysts, China could use Liaoning and its future carriers to intimidate other smaller countries that have territorial claims in the South China Sea, as well as extending air control further south of the disputed region.[43] In December 2016 the ship exercised in the Western Pacific, including passing through the Miyako Strait between the Japanese islands of Miyako-jima and Okinawa.[44][45] On 18 April 2018, Liaoning took part in the navy's live-fire exercises in the South China Sea, involving 76 fighter jets and 48 warships and submarines. The drills came after a large military display presided over by Chinese paramount leader Xi Jinping, and were condemned by Taiwan as "military intimidation".[46]

In August 2018, South China Morning Post reported that Liaoning was berthed at Dalian undergoing its first refit since its commissioning in 2012. The radar above Liaoning's bridge and the air traffic control at the rear of the island superstructure was noted to have been removed, and scaffolding was also noted around the command centre.[4

 

[sptrawler]

Once the new chip factories are built, america is well & truly gone.

I reckon that sums it up, there will be more sabre rattling to stall, but once the IP and critical components have been removed, it will only be a matter of time.
Of bigger concern for Australia, when Taiwan becomes China and the Philippines are already bedded down with China add to that the Chinese have taken over a deep water port in New Guinea, we actually become neighbours with China.
You never know they might blockade us.?

 

[Clansman]

You have no idea what goes into planning for war whereas I wrote official Reports on support capability. It is you who is out of his depth here.
If China wanted to act on Taiwan it would merely implement a blockade. The international community accepts the "one China" policy so would have no cause to act.
That aside, I note you were unable to address the challenge I set for you in an earlier post. Are you up for it or are you going to indulge in more waffle?

You wrote reports on support capability but you didn't notice that China doesn't have a Blue Water navy. Has 1 homemade aircraft carrier which is probably worse than the artificial reef they bought from the Ukraine. You also didn't notice that Japan has more destroyers than China and more effective to boot. That doesn't sound like someone who has any idea what goes into planning. Nonsensical yes. Plausible no.

 

[Sean K]

This piece in the Oz by Abbott, is exactly how strategic defence planners are anticipating this to unfold. It's paywalled so you might not be able to read it if you're not a News subscriber.

His speech in Taiwan is linked here, different to the above, but along the same lines. The international community will most likely intervene if China decides to take Taiwan by force after all else fails.

 

[wayneL]

The macro dudes have been talking about this concept of the fourth turning for a little bit now. It seems to be a thing and with this Taiwan situation, it seems to be more of a thing than ever.

I'm strapped in for a pretty wild ride.

Opinion | The Fourth Turning is finally here and it might not end well

The world is undergoing a churn set in motion by a crisis that could actually bend the arc of history

www.livemint.com