CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
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China to Take Down World Financial Markets
- Thread starter Kimosabi
- Start date
>Apocalypto<
20.03.2012
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Good grief TI, you having a bad day?
Cheers,
Not at all Can,
300 hundred from a 5 min day trade just had yum cha for lunch. things are great.
just getting way over all the negative sheep in this forum, who all claim we will have a crash with nothing but the opinion of some expert.
who knows what motive they have for being bearish at this point, cause a sell off buy back in when its cheaper.
i dont see any charts no proof.
all wild guesses, china has never been in this position before in there history so who is any one to say it will crash until the day it does correct.
maybe i am being totally unreasonable but I am so over all the crash callers.
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
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>Apocalypto<
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The Feb correction caused by China???
Umm well thats the spin the media put on it.
Its clearly the US market correction that sparked the rest of Asia and us also to correct.
Its important to remember that prior to this we had been going UP since September from 4900 to 6000 for XAO thats 22% in less than 6 months.
Also DOW going spastic since about July 06.
So we and the Yanks were looking for any reason to take profits off the table (its easy to sell when your in profit).
Now what caused the US correction whether it was China tanking OR Greenspans comments of 50/50 recession on that very night, OR subprime worries, is anybodys guess.
And whether one event without the other(s) wouldve caused the same reaction we'll never know.
But what i do know is that i think it was Wednesday last week the Shanghai bourse fell by 3.6% and nobody else cared. Initially the rest of Asia was down, thinking it may have an effect on the US markets the way that February 27th did. It didnt. The US closed up that day.
>Apocalypto<
20.03.2012
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Nizar thank you for bringing some sense into this thread thank you very much. hats off to you buddy.
Temjin and other doomsdayers, have a really good read of that post, maybe read it twice!
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just got this from air daily, entitled "Relax, China isn't going to crash"
http://www.aireview.com.au/index.php?act=view&catid=8&id=5962&setSub=1
can't copy / paste unfortunately. upshot of the article is -
inflation is low at 1%
current account is in surplus
not reliant on foreign capital inflow
currency is not overvalued
world largest foreign reserves
http://www.aireview.com.au/index.php?act=view&catid=8&id=5962&setSub=1
can't copy / paste unfortunately. upshot of the article is -
inflation is low at 1%
current account is in surplus
not reliant on foreign capital inflow
currency is not overvalued
world largest foreign reserves
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
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The afternoon that the SSE started its big slide on Feb 26th, the ASX slide as did all other Asian markets. The US Markets slide down that night. This is a fact.
That world markets pay no attention to what the SSE does now should be no surprise as it only turned out to be a buying opportunity last time.
Cheers,
Brother read my post again.
I know asia followed China (just like last wednesday).
The US did slide down i not arguing that. Its a fact.
But the cause?
Media says China.
Also on that night Greenspan said comments about 50/50 chance of recession. It could well be this that moved the US markets.
ButIf it was solely China that moved the Yanks then how come not the same effect on last wednesday??
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
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Ahhh, ok. Point taken Nizar.
I agree that it wouldn't have taken much to cause a little panic back then...my point was exactly that, and now its going to take more than China to cause a panic to stop this bull.
Cheers,
Trade It,
It's one thing to disagree with others' views, but it's entirely another to resort to personal attacks.
MHO is it's time for YOU to "stay the hell off the forums" if you're gonna use such tactics. Nizar disagrees but he doesn't offend me in the least.
>Apocalypto<
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Mousie
point taken i did go a little over the top but when u read sour puss posts non stop with no evidence apart from some article. then it makes you wonder.
and believe me if it continues to be full of dribble about crashes with no proof then i will get the hell out of the forums.
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Well, while you guys are having your e-lovers tiff, there are some important things going on between the USA and China at the moment that could potentially have a negative effect on Australia's economy in the future...
US looks set for trade war with Chinese
Rowan Callick, China correspondent
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Sans-Serif]22may07[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Sans-Serif]TALKS between half the US and Chinese cabinets starting today in Washington look unlikely to head off US legislation that would trigger a trade war with China.[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Sans-Serif]The Chinese Government's triple attack yesterday on its own over-exuberant economy: introducing raised interest rates and bank reserve requirements, and broadening the potential trading band of the yuan - intended to demonstrate its responsiveness to US concerns - was shrugged off by its own markets. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Sans-Serif]Instead, the Shanghai market powered on, climbing 1 per cent. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Sans-Serif]The 14 Chinese ministers, led by Vice-Premier Wu Yi, appear not to have brought any concessions strong enough to satisfy the growing US anti-China lobby. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Sans-Serif]The cover of the latest edition of The Economist, reflecting this mood, features a panda version of King Kong marauding through New York, and the headline "America's Fear of China". [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Sans-Serif]Democrats who now control the US Congress complain about China's $283 billion trade surplus with the US last year, claiming it is substantially due to an undervaluing of the yuan that helps China's exporters, and are calling for a revaluation of up to 40 per cent. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Sans-Serif]A week ago a trade panel voted to impose special duties of up to 44.3 per cent on imports of polyester fibre from China. A few weeks earlier, the US imposed duties on glossy paper imports. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Sans-Serif]Several items of new legislation, including one that would impose a 27 per cent tariff on all Chinese goods, and five concerning currency issues alone, are on the table. Their introduction would lead to a full-scale trade war. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Sans-Serif]Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who is leading the US team in today's talks, is perceived in Beijing as an "old friend". [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Sans-Serif]Mr Paulson's task is exacerbated by the disinclination of Congress, in the heightened antipathies arising from the Iraq war, to give the US administration any benefit of the doubt in handling other issues, including the economic relationship with China. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Sans-Serif]New York Democrat senator Charles Schumer said of China's measures, including allowing the yuan to trade higher: "This is a nice gesture, but in the past, most of their gestures have not produced any concrete change." [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Sans-Serif]House Ways & Means Committee chairman Charles Rangel said: "The time for talk has passed; we must now act to end this unfair trade practice that cripples American industries." [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Sans-Serif]Last week Sander Levin, chairman of the same committee's trade subcommittee, said: "The issue on the table is not whether the US needs to take action to respond to the interventionist policies of China and Japan in this key area, but what form that action should take." [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Sans-Serif]Last Thursday, 42 US legislators filed a petition to Trade Representative Susan Schwab urging "strong action" against China's "unfair currency manipulation". [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Sans-Serif]China's team in Washington will announce the purchase of several billion dollars of American goods, but this is unlikely to dent the anti-China sentiment. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Sans-Serif]Beijing wants to diversify the talks to include more of a focus on energy, the topic of a recent conversation between presidents George Bush and Hu Jintao. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Sans-Serif]Chinese officials point out that 60 per cent of the country's exports are produced by foreign companies, many of them American, that China's own margins are mostly wafer-thin, and that it is China's investment of about $600 billion in US securities that has enabled Americans to keep consuming rather than saving.[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Sans-Serif]http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21771363-643,00.html[/FONT]
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A trade war. Utter lunacy but a totally plausible reaction by numb scull politicians clasping at straws. Don't they realize that if China is 'forced' to revalue it's currency then the only people it's going to disadvantage is US consumers by driving up import prices.
Good one!
Visit http://www.aireview.com.au/index.php?act=v...catid=8&id=5962
Relax, China Isn’t Going To Crash
May 22 2007 - Australasian Investment Review – (AIR)
So far this year the Chinese economy and share market have continued to roar ahead.
The Chinese authorities are keen to cool both and this was evident in the latest moves to increase both interest rates and the banks’ required reserve ratios and to widen the daily trading band for the Renminbi.
Some commentators fret that the economy is a bubble, that the share market is a bubble and when it unravels it will be disastrous for the rest of world, including Australia.
The AMP Society's Dr Shane Oliver says there will be few problems with China. Here’s his argument:
He says that as long as he has been analysing China various commentators have been wringing their hands about the sustainability of its strong growth rate.
Many seem prone to see the bright lights of Shanghai and the rapid development all over the country as proof that China is the next Asian crisis. And yet, despite these regular predictions of doom, China’s economy continues to zoom along.
Our view is that China is being propelled by very strong structural forces.
These include strong productivity growth, huge competitive advantages, rapid urbanisation, surging consumer demand and very strong investment.
These in turn are underpinning solid gains from Chinese shares.
With per capita income levels in China still way below rich country levels China’s rapid growth phase has a long way to go, probably several decades.
While recent economic growth remains remarkably strong, eg real GDP up 11.1% over the year to the March quarter, the economy is no closer to being in an unsustainable bubble than ever.
The normal signs of impending trouble in emerging markets are simply not present in China’s case:
Inflation is low, at just 1% year on year excluding food. Since the mid 1990s there has been a dramatic improvement in the growth/inflation trade-off in China, partly reflecting greater reliance on capacity enhancing investment to drive growth.
• The current account is in surplus – as opposed to the huge deficits that preceded trouble in the Asian crisis.
• China is not reliant on foreign capital inflow. In fact, the rest of the world is reliant on Chinese capital outflow!
• Foreign exchange reserves are the world’s largest.
• Unlike the Asian crisis countries the Chinese Renminbi is undervalued, not overvalued.
Furthermore, after efforts over the last few years to re-balance the economy investment is running below previous peaks, it has shifted from the eastern areas to the central and western areas & consumer spending has strengthened all of which is consistent with government policy.
Sure China faces environmental problems and political risks and its managed exchange rate makes it hard to control liquidity but these problems aren’t enough to derail its strong growth prospects.
While the latest tightening measures will act to slow growth they won’t crunch it:
• The base lending rate at 6.57% (up from 6.39%) is well below nominal GDP growth of around 13%, so monetary conditions are still not tight;
• The banks’ required reserve ratio (i.e., the amount of deposits they must retain in reserves) at 11.5% is well below actual reserves of around 13%; and
• The widening of the permissible Renminbi daily trading band against the $US from 0.3% to 0.5% may signal a faster appreciation against the $US, but it’s unlikely to be a dramatic change as the previous band already allowed for a monthly appreciation of 6.8% and yet the Renminbi rarely moved by the maximum permitted and is up only 7.9% since the July 2005 move from a fixed exchange rate.
The timing looks partly designed to lead to smoother talks between China and the US this week.
Just as the gradual appreciation of the currency since 2005 has not had much impact on Chinese export growth (which has been averaging 25 to 30%) it’s unlikely a slightly faster pace of appreciation will have much impact either as China’s cost advantage is huge.
More fundamentally, the trade imbalance between China and the US reflects excess savings in China and excess spending in the US and exchange rate changes won’t fix that.
So, while it’s clear the Chinese authorities want to slow the economy down a bit, they have no need to crunch it and recent policy measures won’t have a major impact.
We are of the view that the Chinese economy is on track for growth of around 9 to 10% over the year ahead.
The structural forces propelling the Chinese economy make it a bit like a car going down a hill. But it is not out of control and the authorities are simply tapping the brakes to make sure this remains the case.
With growth likely to remain strong it’s quite likely we will see further tightening, but it’s hard to see the brakes being slammed on because there is no need.
The Chinese share market is a concern to many, so what is really happening?
So far this year Shanghai A shares are up 50% (after a 130% gain last year) and the Citic/S&P index of the 300 largest companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzen is up 85%.
Individual interest in share investing in China has become huge with 250,000 new share accounts being opened each day compared to a daily average of just 3000 earlier last year.
This rate of increase is clearly unsustainable and many are fretting about a bubble but several points are worth noting.
• Firstly, much of the rebound in Chinese shares since 2005 reflects a recovery from a four-year bear market, during which individual Chinese investors lost confidence in shares and allocated most of their assets to bank deposits.
• Secondly, profit growth for listed Chinese companies over the last year has been a very strong 78%.
• Thirdly, while the price earnings ratio for Chinese A shares of around 40 times is high by our standards it is only just above its 10 year average of 36 times and is well below its previous high of 60 times.
The PE on Chinese shares is also way below the peak levels reached during previous share market bubbles, eg, the Japanese Nikkei index peaked on a PE of 70 times in 1989 and the tech heavy Nasdaq reached a PE of 160 in 2000.
• Finally, Chinese investors still have a very low proportion of their financial wealth invested in shares, around 25% compared to over 50% in Australia and 40% in the rest of Asia. Bank deposits on 3% or so interest account for 65% of financial wealth.
So the long term potential for a higher allocation to shares is high.
Quite clearly the recent rate of appreciation in Chinese shares is unsustainable, and the authorities are keen to cool it down.
This may involve jawboning & administrative measures, like we saw in late February. As such, volatility is likely to be high with corrections inevitable, but the longer term outlook remains strong.
While some worry that a sharp fall in Chinese shares would have a major impact on the Chinese economy this seems unlikely.
While strong long term growth in China helps underpin the Chinese share market over the long term, over the last decade the Chinese economy and share market have moved in different directions.
While shares moved up in the second half of the 1990s the economy slowed, and the reverse occurred from 2001 to 2005.
The relationship between the share market and the economy is far looser than in developed countries because the equity market still only accounts for 10% of financing in China and the share of equities in household financial wealth is very low at 25%.
And given the highly speculative nature of short term moves in Chinese shares a short term swing in either direction is unlikely to tell us anything about the Chinese economy, which for reasons we have already indicated is likely to remain strong.
For these reasons if there were to be another sharp correction in Chinese shares like that in late February; there may be a knee jerk reaction in major global share markets, including Australia’s.
However, since it is unlikely to signal problems in the Chinese economy any impact is unlikely to be sustained.
Copyright Australasian Investment Review.
AIR publishes a weekly magazine. Subscriptions are free at www.aireview.com.au
Relax, China Isn’t Going To Crash
May 22 2007 - Australasian Investment Review – (AIR)
So far this year the Chinese economy and share market have continued to roar ahead.
The Chinese authorities are keen to cool both and this was evident in the latest moves to increase both interest rates and the banks’ required reserve ratios and to widen the daily trading band for the Renminbi.
Some commentators fret that the economy is a bubble, that the share market is a bubble and when it unravels it will be disastrous for the rest of world, including Australia.
The AMP Society's Dr Shane Oliver says there will be few problems with China. Here’s his argument:
He says that as long as he has been analysing China various commentators have been wringing their hands about the sustainability of its strong growth rate.
Many seem prone to see the bright lights of Shanghai and the rapid development all over the country as proof that China is the next Asian crisis. And yet, despite these regular predictions of doom, China’s economy continues to zoom along.
Our view is that China is being propelled by very strong structural forces.
These include strong productivity growth, huge competitive advantages, rapid urbanisation, surging consumer demand and very strong investment.
These in turn are underpinning solid gains from Chinese shares.
With per capita income levels in China still way below rich country levels China’s rapid growth phase has a long way to go, probably several decades.
While recent economic growth remains remarkably strong, eg real GDP up 11.1% over the year to the March quarter, the economy is no closer to being in an unsustainable bubble than ever.
The normal signs of impending trouble in emerging markets are simply not present in China’s case:
Inflation is low, at just 1% year on year excluding food. Since the mid 1990s there has been a dramatic improvement in the growth/inflation trade-off in China, partly reflecting greater reliance on capacity enhancing investment to drive growth.
• The current account is in surplus – as opposed to the huge deficits that preceded trouble in the Asian crisis.
• China is not reliant on foreign capital inflow. In fact, the rest of the world is reliant on Chinese capital outflow!
• Foreign exchange reserves are the world’s largest.
• Unlike the Asian crisis countries the Chinese Renminbi is undervalued, not overvalued.
Furthermore, after efforts over the last few years to re-balance the economy investment is running below previous peaks, it has shifted from the eastern areas to the central and western areas & consumer spending has strengthened all of which is consistent with government policy.
Sure China faces environmental problems and political risks and its managed exchange rate makes it hard to control liquidity but these problems aren’t enough to derail its strong growth prospects.
While the latest tightening measures will act to slow growth they won’t crunch it:
• The base lending rate at 6.57% (up from 6.39%) is well below nominal GDP growth of around 13%, so monetary conditions are still not tight;
• The banks’ required reserve ratio (i.e., the amount of deposits they must retain in reserves) at 11.5% is well below actual reserves of around 13%; and
• The widening of the permissible Renminbi daily trading band against the $US from 0.3% to 0.5% may signal a faster appreciation against the $US, but it’s unlikely to be a dramatic change as the previous band already allowed for a monthly appreciation of 6.8% and yet the Renminbi rarely moved by the maximum permitted and is up only 7.9% since the July 2005 move from a fixed exchange rate.
The timing looks partly designed to lead to smoother talks between China and the US this week.
Just as the gradual appreciation of the currency since 2005 has not had much impact on Chinese export growth (which has been averaging 25 to 30%) it’s unlikely a slightly faster pace of appreciation will have much impact either as China’s cost advantage is huge.
More fundamentally, the trade imbalance between China and the US reflects excess savings in China and excess spending in the US and exchange rate changes won’t fix that.
So, while it’s clear the Chinese authorities want to slow the economy down a bit, they have no need to crunch it and recent policy measures won’t have a major impact.
We are of the view that the Chinese economy is on track for growth of around 9 to 10% over the year ahead.
The structural forces propelling the Chinese economy make it a bit like a car going down a hill. But it is not out of control and the authorities are simply tapping the brakes to make sure this remains the case.
With growth likely to remain strong it’s quite likely we will see further tightening, but it’s hard to see the brakes being slammed on because there is no need.
The Chinese share market is a concern to many, so what is really happening?
So far this year Shanghai A shares are up 50% (after a 130% gain last year) and the Citic/S&P index of the 300 largest companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzen is up 85%.
Individual interest in share investing in China has become huge with 250,000 new share accounts being opened each day compared to a daily average of just 3000 earlier last year.
This rate of increase is clearly unsustainable and many are fretting about a bubble but several points are worth noting.
• Firstly, much of the rebound in Chinese shares since 2005 reflects a recovery from a four-year bear market, during which individual Chinese investors lost confidence in shares and allocated most of their assets to bank deposits.
• Secondly, profit growth for listed Chinese companies over the last year has been a very strong 78%.
• Thirdly, while the price earnings ratio for Chinese A shares of around 40 times is high by our standards it is only just above its 10 year average of 36 times and is well below its previous high of 60 times.
The PE on Chinese shares is also way below the peak levels reached during previous share market bubbles, eg, the Japanese Nikkei index peaked on a PE of 70 times in 1989 and the tech heavy Nasdaq reached a PE of 160 in 2000.
• Finally, Chinese investors still have a very low proportion of their financial wealth invested in shares, around 25% compared to over 50% in Australia and 40% in the rest of Asia. Bank deposits on 3% or so interest account for 65% of financial wealth.
So the long term potential for a higher allocation to shares is high.
Quite clearly the recent rate of appreciation in Chinese shares is unsustainable, and the authorities are keen to cool it down.
This may involve jawboning & administrative measures, like we saw in late February. As such, volatility is likely to be high with corrections inevitable, but the longer term outlook remains strong.
While some worry that a sharp fall in Chinese shares would have a major impact on the Chinese economy this seems unlikely.
While strong long term growth in China helps underpin the Chinese share market over the long term, over the last decade the Chinese economy and share market have moved in different directions.
While shares moved up in the second half of the 1990s the economy slowed, and the reverse occurred from 2001 to 2005.
The relationship between the share market and the economy is far looser than in developed countries because the equity market still only accounts for 10% of financing in China and the share of equities in household financial wealth is very low at 25%.
And given the highly speculative nature of short term moves in Chinese shares a short term swing in either direction is unlikely to tell us anything about the Chinese economy, which for reasons we have already indicated is likely to remain strong.
For these reasons if there were to be another sharp correction in Chinese shares like that in late February; there may be a knee jerk reaction in major global share markets, including Australia’s.
However, since it is unlikely to signal problems in the Chinese economy any impact is unlikely to be sustained.
Copyright Australasian Investment Review.
AIR publishes a weekly magazine. Subscriptions are free at www.aireview.com.au
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Interesting article there as well, does give me another perspective on the whole issue.
Trade_It, I don't think you even bothered consider the concerns/points raised by all the articles posted here or those out there that claim the possibility of a Chinese market crash.
No evidence apart from some article? Perhaps I can say the same for that particular article too. Where did they get all those numbers from? From what sources? How do you claim the creditability of that article? How can you prove that those numbers will GUARANTEE the Chinese share market is NOT FORMING a bubble and WILL NOT CRASH? Obviously, you can.
And obviously again, I can't as well for those articles claiming the crash.
Your problem is you have one of the many psychology biases that Dr Van Tharp claim it hinders one's ability to trade successfully. (yes, it's not related to this argument, but still) It means one tend to filter information that DOES NOT conform to his/her own perception of reality, and only take in and accept information that he/she believes to be correct in their own mind.
I'm taking from both sides argument but will continue to remain skeptical about the long term outlook on the chinese share market. No one can GUARANTEE that it wouldn't crash simply because it's fundamental is strong, it's PE ratio is still way less than previous historic crashs, or that only 25% of finanical wealth is in the market right now compared to 40-50% elsewhere, etc, etc. Obviously, these are strong evidences that the market may continue to steam ahead more longer, but there are also strong evidences/signs that hint the market is in the bubble stage.
I simply wouldn't ignore both side of the evidences and you shouldn't either.
My only PERSONALLY major concern would still be in the inevitable corrections that will occur and how it will affect the Australia stock market in the short term.
If one has allocate 100% of his portfolio in Aussie stocks and on margin lending, and TOTALLY IGNORE the impact of ANY Chinese market corrections or "possible" crash, then he/she is taking unnecessary risk right now by ignoring the big picture.
I call it risk management, and I'm not trying to be a doomsayer.
Trade_it said:
Trade_It, I don't think you even bothered consider the concerns/points raised by all the articles posted here or those out there that claim the possibility of a Chinese market crash.
No evidence apart from some article? Perhaps I can say the same for that particular article too. Where did they get all those numbers from? From what sources? How do you claim the creditability of that article? How can you prove that those numbers will GUARANTEE the Chinese share market is NOT FORMING a bubble and WILL NOT CRASH? Obviously, you can.
And obviously again, I can't as well for those articles claiming the crash.
Your problem is you have one of the many psychology biases that Dr Van Tharp claim it hinders one's ability to trade successfully. (yes, it's not related to this argument, but still) It means one tend to filter information that DOES NOT conform to his/her own perception of reality, and only take in and accept information that he/she believes to be correct in their own mind.
I'm taking from both sides argument but will continue to remain skeptical about the long term outlook on the chinese share market. No one can GUARANTEE that it wouldn't crash simply because it's fundamental is strong, it's PE ratio is still way less than previous historic crashs, or that only 25% of finanical wealth is in the market right now compared to 40-50% elsewhere, etc, etc. Obviously, these are strong evidences that the market may continue to steam ahead more longer, but there are also strong evidences/signs that hint the market is in the bubble stage.
I simply wouldn't ignore both side of the evidences and you shouldn't either.
My only PERSONALLY major concern would still be in the inevitable corrections that will occur and how it will affect the Australia stock market in the short term.
If one has allocate 100% of his portfolio in Aussie stocks and on margin lending, and TOTALLY IGNORE the impact of ANY Chinese market corrections or "possible" crash, then he/she is taking unnecessary risk right now by ignoring the big picture.
I call it risk management, and I'm not trying to be a doomsayer.
>Apocalypto<
20.03.2012
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Temjin,
This is over and done with and I have much better things to do with my time then waste it on you.
Good trading to you buddy.
This is over and done with and I have much better things to do with my time then waste it on you.
Good trading to you buddy.
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Message taken, same to you then. Good luck.
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Stop fighting girls, now which one of you stole the lip stick, or the boyfriend
Sensetive Sally's
Sensetive Sally's
>Apocalypto<
20.03.2012
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Stop fighting girls, now which one of you stole the lip stick, or the boyfriend
Sensetive Sally's
LOL
I must admit I took the lip stick!
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