Sean K
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I like your optimism, being an engineer myself I somewhat doubt we would be able to design factories required within less than 5 y ,and then we would need to build , furnished (with equipment, not bathroom extensions) and operate them...In regards to fuel and the industrial base and manufacturing etc, let's not forget that if it ever got to a total war situation the entire country is turned to support the war footing. The government will take anything it needs. Not having much of a manufacturing base is a problem for sure, but if the country is at existential threat, we'd be surprised as how quickly things would happen. We came close to this in WW2 but still had spare capacity. Baristas will be be put in uniform first.
In regards to fuel and the industrial base and manufacturing etc, let's not forget that if it ever got to a total war situation the entire country is turned to support the war footing. The government will take anything it needs. Not having much of a manufacturing base is a problem for sure, but if the country is at existential threat, we'd be surprised as how quickly things would happen. We came close to this in WW2 but still had spare capacity. Baristas will be be put in uniform first.
I like your optimism, being an engineer myself I somewhat doubt we would be able to design factories required within less than 5 y ,and then we would need to build , furnished (with equipment, not bathroom extensions) and operate them...
We are technically in the primary level, rural and mining, next to nothing in term of any level between that and FinTech/accounting levels...
Good luck doing a war effort with no skill/brain, no people, no machine or robotics, no power/oil and lump of concentrated iron ore.
Feeding ourself alone would be a huge challenge ..
Ukraine was the industrial basket of the USSR, where rockets and high tech ..for ussr was made , at least they can use what is send to them, could we even?
I believe maybe shockingly we should have a dozen of nuclear war heads against state wars, and fleets of automated drones to protect our northern (mostly) .borders.
No point having even nuke when you open borders as EU demonstrated
Anything else is just big boys toys and wishful thinking IMHO.
I am sorry Sean if what I trust is a genuine belief in your army work and time ,is IMHO a waste of money and your time...
it might have helped Timoreses, Afghans etc...no denying that
But if the aim is to protect our country and way of life, nada....
Definitely not a personal attack
And you are not to blame: the population, the leaders we elect and military heads chosen are..
Let's all pray we will not have to live and see the results of this bi partisan idiocy
All right time for mowing and leave China work ?
If planning for a China state war, not hidden way via let's say Indonesia disruption/ agitation..not much we can do except pushing for access to nukes..Agree, it would take a long time and maybe it couldn't be done, but I am optimistic as you say. We used to work off a 10 year strategic warning of a major conflict and that seems to have been shortened significantly. Our strategic planners are probably working on 5 years now. What do you think we could do with 5 years warning @qldfrog ?
Let's also not forget, if China did sail towards Australia, there's a whole bunch of obstacles in their way on the way down who are not China friendlies and after colonial rule and WW2 experiences will not give up their own sovereignty lightly.
Ya really don't have much going for ya there Monsieur Frog!But I am not in charge and I am white male not gay and with an accent:
No ivy private school network, nor woke showcase..so I go back to sleep ?
Each of these "obstacles" have self interest and some form of grasp of reality so I hold no comfort in that.Agree, it would take a long time and maybe it couldn't be done, but I am optimistic as you say. We used to work off a 10 year strategic warning of a major conflict and that seems to have been shortened significantly. Our strategic planners are probably working on 5 years now. What do you think we could do with 5 years warning @qldfrog ?
Let's also not forget, if China did sail towards Australia, there's a whole bunch of obstacles in their way on the way down who are not China friendlies and after colonial rule and WW2 experiences will not give up their own sovereignty lightly.
Each of these "obstacles" have self interest and some form of grasp of reality so I hold no comfort in that.
I seriously question any sort of "tough stuff" unity ability of this country.
Agree to some extent. Like Japan marching through SE Asia they'd just be overwhelmed eventually so might just give up. But, Vietnam has proved to be pretty resilient in the face of an 'invasion', and Indonesia have a national defence policy called 'total defence' where every man woman and child would defend their province. The Philippines is sliding back to the US. Malaysia and Singapore are part of the FPDA so that brings in the UK, us and NZ.
Talking all about this, I think it's a long time before China would ever consider advancing militarily by force through SE Asia. Unless Taiwan changes their political position and accepts Chinese peaceful unification they will be having to deal with that issue for a decade plus, even after they try to take them by force. And, maybe that's all they want to do? I don't think Japan agree with that premise though.
War monfering countries like US of A depend on a war/conflict somewhere in the world to keep the infrastructure going.It feeds the rich while it buries the poor.
That's actually just a song lyric but hits the nail on the head in my view. That's exactly what it does.
Trouble is, humans keep going down this path. Peace is achieved but in due course we enable an enemy. From there it's only a matter of time until conflict erupts.
War monfering countries like US of A depend on a war/conflict somewhere in the world to keep the infrastructure going.
That was relying on the USD as the world currency..this is getting eroded as we actually see right nowWar monfering countries like US of A depend on a war/conflict somewhere in the world to keep the infrastructure going.
War monfering countries like US of A depend on a war/conflict somewhere in the world to keep the infrastructure going.
to be fair with rederob, his point is the same as mine about the critical role of armed drones, and I assumes unmaned vehicles..drone not being limited to the flying type buzzing around at the beacham I the only one to be scared by this?
am I the only one to be scared by this?
How to avoid war over Taiwan
A superpower conflict would shake the world
Europe is witnessing its bloodiest cross-border war since 1945, but Asia risks something even worse: conflict between America and China over Taiwan. Tensions are high, as American forces pivot to a new doctrine known as “distributed lethality” designed to blunt Chinese missile attacks. Last week dozens of Chinese jets breached Taiwan’s “air defence identification zone”. This week China’s foreign minister condemned what he called America’s strategy of “all-round containment and suppression, a zero-sum game of life and death”.
As America rearms in Asia and tries to galvanise its allies, two questions loom. Is it willing to risk a direct war with another nuclear power to defend Taiwan, something it has not been prepared to do for Ukraine? And by competing with China militarily in Asia, could it provoke the very war it is trying to prevent?
No one can be sure how an invasion of Taiwan might start. China could use “grey-zone” tactics that are coercive, but not quite acts of war, to blockade the self-governing island and sap its economy and morale. Or it could launch pre-emptive missile strikes on American bases in Guam and Japan, clearing the way for an amphibious assault. Since Taiwan could resist an attack on its own only for days or weeks, any conflict could escalate quickly into a superpower confrontation.
Both sides are shoring up their positions and trying to signal their resolve, with destabilising consequences. Some acts generate headlines, as when Nancy Pelosi, then speaker of the House of Representatives, visited Taipei last year; others are almost invisible, such as the mysterious severing of undersea internet cables to remote Taiwanese islands. Diplomacy has stalled. Top American and Chinese defence officials have not spoken since November. During the recent spy-balloon incident, a “hotline” failed when China did not pick up. Rhetoric aimed at domestic audiences has grown more martial, whether on the American campaign trail or from China’s top leaders. What one side sees as a defensive act to protect its red lines, the other sees as an aggressive attempt to thwart its ambitions. Thus both sides are tempted to keep hardening their positions.
It is unclear how far America would go to defend Taiwan. The island is not a domino. China has some territorial designs beyond it, but does not want to invade or directly rule all of Asia. And as our special report explains, it is unclear how many Taiwanese see China as a real threat, or have the stomach for a fight.
The Taiwanese, like the Ukrainians, deserve American help. The island is admirably liberal and democratic, and proof that such values are not alien to Chinese culture. It would be a tragedy if its people had to submit to a dictatorship. If America walked away, the credibility of its security umbrella in Asia would be gravely in doubt. Some Asian countries would accommodate China more; South Korea and Japan might seek nuclear weapons. It would boost China’s worldview that the interests of states come before the individual freedoms enshrined in the un after the second world war.
But the help Taiwan receives should aim to deter a Chinese attack without provoking one. America needs to consider Mr Xi’s calculus. A blanket American security guarantee might embolden Taiwan to declare formal independence, a red line for him. The promise of a much larger American military presence on Taiwan could lead China to invade now, before it arrives. A botched invasion, however, would cost Mr Xi and the Communist Party dearly. America needs to calibrate its stance: reassure Mr Xi that his red lines remain intact, but convince him that aggression carries unacceptable risks. The goal should not be to solve the Taiwan question, but to defer it.
Taiwan has avoided provocation. Its president, Tsai Ing-wen, has not declared independence. But it needs to do more to deter its neighbour, by boosting defence spending so that it can survive longer without American help, and by preparing its citizens to resist grey-zone tactics, from disinformation to vote-rigging. For its part, America should try harder to reassure China and to deter it. It should avoid symbolic acts that provoke China without strengthening Taiwan’s capacity to defend itself. It should keep modernising its armed forces and rallying its allies. And it should be prepared to break a future blockade, by stockpiling fuel, planning an airlift, providing backup internet links and building an allied consensus on sanctions.
America and today’s Chinese regime will never agree about Taiwan. But they do share a common interest in avoiding a third world war. The first 15 years of the American-Soviet cold war featured a terrifying mixture of brinkmanship and near-catastrophic mistakes, until the Cuban missile crisis prompted a revival of diplomacy. This is the terrain the world is now on. Unfortunately, the potential common ground between America and China on Taiwan is shrinking. Somehow, the two rival systems must find a way to live together less dangerously. ■
Hon PJ Keating failed to tell his audience that some of his thoughts may be as a paid shill for the CCP.The only thing scarier is Paul Keating's unhinged ramblings at the Press Club today.
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