The local sales are great and about time some units were bought for power generation rather than testing but re Germany someone on the radio today said that Germany might just top up their power needs from across their borders. Nuclear from France and coal from Czech Republic. However based on what Germany has already done they will have a fair dinkum go at renewables and less polluting gas.
CFU - Ceramic Fuel Cells
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Bit off topic.
But I just thought I would post this antique video, Probably the best insight to the fuel cell market I have seen so far even if it is old. Doesn't mention CFU at all but talks about costs to make a fuel cells (like the Bluegen) well worth a watch if you have an hour spare.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yD3C4pZIP0U&NR=1
But I just thought I would post this antique video, Probably the best insight to the fuel cell market I have seen so far even if it is old. Doesn't mention CFU at all but talks about costs to make a fuel cells (like the Bluegen) well worth a watch if you have an hour spare.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yD3C4pZIP0U&NR=1
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Unless I'm much mistaken I think today's 19% jump and massive volume is directly related to the carbon tax. Slightly odd, as without a feed in tariff for fuel cells these things are unlikely to sell in Australia.
Still happy to hold.
Still happy to hold.
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The comment above was typical of the sentiment being expressed around the end of last year, start of this one. And, at the time, a well founded one. For me it was Fukushima that changed everything. Now that Germany has scrapped its nuclear program CFU is reaping the benefits.
Popping nicely now. Another 100 orders for a German distributor just came in and a very healthy looking quarterly report as well. It is hard to say when the company will be cash flow positive but there is definitely light at the end of the tunnel. Up more than 25% on big volume.
Starting to look like this dog is going to have its day
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...
Starting to look like this dog is going to have its day
Hope you are right Boff. Very encouraging news, these are not great times to be running up business, so todays news is very good. Looks like the retailer has to commit to ongoing volume to keep their marketing rights.
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Another lazy 200 million shares to dilute existing shareholders even more. The money going to pay for the building of the orders.
Where are the usual rampers of this stock?
I still cannot see the slightest of reasons why this stock should be bought.
brty
Where are the usual rampers of this stock?
I still cannot see the slightest of reasons why this stock should be bought.
brty
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Yes, sorry for not posting . In the interests of keeping the discourse open I should point out that I sold my holding on Sept 12.
Why? In anyone's book this should be a speccy and for me the worsening situation in Europe (a major CFU market) made me feel uncomfortable holding. Happy to have sold for a small profit.
If they still exist in a year and if they still have an orderbook and if GFC Mk2 has blown over then I'll be back. Lot of ifs.
. In the interests of keeping the discourse open I should point out that I sold my holding on Sept 12.Why? In anyone's book this should be a speccy and for me the worsening situation in Europe (a major CFU market) made me feel uncomfortable holding. Happy to have sold for a small profit.
If they still exist in a year and if they still have an orderbook and if GFC Mk2 has blown over then I'll be back. Lot of ifs.
Knobby22
Mmmmmm 2nd breakfast
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The cost per unit is still too high and that is where the extra capital is going, to reduce manufacture costs.
Orders are flowing even still but I was hoping this startup would run more smoothly. I note they get money pretty easily. I will be taking up the capital raising so I don't get diluted too much.
Orders are flowing even still but I was hoping this startup would run more smoothly. I note they get money pretty easily. I will be taking up the capital raising so I don't get diluted too much.
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Hey all,
Any thoughts on the latest lows Kinda getting annoying receiving emails about presentations they are making instead of selling unit announcements.
Any thoughts on the latest lows
Kinda getting annoying receiving emails about presentations they are making instead of selling unit announcements.
McCoy Pauley
Get out of here Budweiser!
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Robert Gottliebsen wrote glowingly about CFU in the Eureka Report on Wednesday, but that article wouldn't have come out until after the close of the market.
Knobby22
Mmmmmm 2nd breakfast
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Probably. They must have that bloody oven working. ...Not lasting long though.
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Todays announcement was greated poorly by the market by posting new yearly lows.
To me the over-riding fact from the report was that yearly revenue was expected to be $6.5m. Considering receipts from customers were $5.388m in the year to 31/3, then revenue in the fourth quarter could only be ~$1.112m. If operating costs were similar to the previous quarter then a cash outflow can be expected of ~$7m+. This would leave the cash position at less than $10m which is only another 4-5 months of operation at this rate.
All in all it spells ANOTHER capital raising in the near future, more dilution for existing su../ investors.
The price implosion of PV solar, that has zero emissions, zero ongoing costs, high feed in tariffs, and produces at peak times (for cost of electricity), is killing CFCL offerings. In todays report E1040 for gas cost in Germany plus E950 maintenance (13,000kwh) were shown for yearly operation.
I did not see in the report anything about any directors or senior management purchasing a Bluegen for their own homes, a telling endorsement on the product.
I continue to see no reason to invest in this company, todays new yearly low price is a bit of a tell.
To me the over-riding fact from the report was that yearly revenue was expected to be $6.5m. Considering receipts from customers were $5.388m in the year to 31/3, then revenue in the fourth quarter could only be ~$1.112m. If operating costs were similar to the previous quarter then a cash outflow can be expected of ~$7m+. This would leave the cash position at less than $10m which is only another 4-5 months of operation at this rate.
All in all it spells ANOTHER capital raising in the near future, more dilution for existing su../ investors.
The price implosion of PV solar, that has zero emissions, zero ongoing costs, high feed in tariffs, and produces at peak times (for cost of electricity), is killing CFCL offerings. In todays report E1040 for gas cost in Germany plus E950 maintenance (13,000kwh) were shown for yearly operation.
I did not see in the report anything about any directors or senior management purchasing a Bluegen for their own homes, a telling endorsement on the product.
I continue to see no reason to invest in this company, todays new yearly low price is a bit of a tell.
Knobby22
Mmmmmm 2nd breakfast
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The problem brty is that the oven still is not working, now it's supposedly August.
They can't mass produce until they get it going.
It does mention a capital raising - also a downer.
I still reckon the company is a goer, the technology is good however the teething problems need to be solved.
There will be a time to buy into this company big. I sold down a few months back but when we know more about the capital raising and the oven problem being solved, there will be an opportunity to get in at a good price.
The technology is good. There are markets for it. But it has to be supplied in volume at volume production prices.
The present unit prices are very high as they are all hand made.
They can't mass produce until they get it going.
It does mention a capital raising - also a downer.
I still reckon the company is a goer, the technology is good however the teething problems need to be solved.
There will be a time to buy into this company big. I sold down a few months back but when we know more about the capital raising and the oven problem being solved, there will be an opportunity to get in at a good price.
The technology is good. There are markets for it. But it has to be supplied in volume at volume production prices.
The present unit prices are very high as they are all hand made.
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This shareholder update has information that I believe is misleading in it.
For example, on Pg 33 it has a customer value model that shows a 'first year net benefit' of 2315 GBP for UK and 2834 EUR for Germany. Yet despite allowing for a maintenance cost, it does not allow for the cost of gas in the net benefit.
All the calculations are based on maximum efficiency, yet real world use in the case studies clearly show that 60% electrical efficiency only lasts a short time diminishing to 50% after 18 months (P 84).
Also any modulation of power output seems to lower efficiency, down to 44% (p25) at low power levels.
Overall they use a figure (efficiency) they know not to be true, plus they do not add the cost of input gas, nor do they add in capital cost, which is obviously too high as they don't mention it.
On p3 we can glean the following information, revenue for FY12 ~$6.5m, yet revenue for year to 31/3 = $5.388m leaving ~$1.112m for June quarter. P4 states "During the June quarter we booed to revenue sales of 76 units". This gives an average of $14,631/unit. Using this average, all 639 units on order (probably includes all 213 units delivered, it is not clear here) would be worth ~$9.34m to revenue, or about 4 months expenses at current cash burn rate (adding March quarter cash decrease and revenue).
There are currently 1.3b shares on issue. Any capital raising you would expect at around the 5c mark. To raise ~$25m to keep things going for another year the company would need something like a 2 for 5 issue adding 500m new shares. Personally I think they will struggle in existing market conditions.
If a capital raising is much smaller, then they are likely to have to go back to the market within another 6 months for more.
For example, on Pg 33 it has a customer value model that shows a 'first year net benefit' of 2315 GBP for UK and 2834 EUR for Germany. Yet despite allowing for a maintenance cost, it does not allow for the cost of gas in the net benefit.
All the calculations are based on maximum efficiency, yet real world use in the case studies clearly show that 60% electrical efficiency only lasts a short time diminishing to 50% after 18 months (P 84).
Also any modulation of power output seems to lower efficiency, down to 44% (p25) at low power levels.
Overall they use a figure (efficiency) they know not to be true, plus they do not add the cost of input gas, nor do they add in capital cost, which is obviously too high as they don't mention it.
On p3 we can glean the following information, revenue for FY12 ~$6.5m, yet revenue for year to 31/3 = $5.388m leaving ~$1.112m for June quarter. P4 states "During the June quarter we booed to revenue sales of 76 units". This gives an average of $14,631/unit. Using this average, all 639 units on order (probably includes all 213 units delivered, it is not clear here) would be worth ~$9.34m to revenue, or about 4 months expenses at current cash burn rate (adding March quarter cash decrease and revenue).
There are currently 1.3b shares on issue. Any capital raising you would expect at around the 5c mark. To raise ~$25m to keep things going for another year the company would need something like a 2 for 5 issue adding 500m new shares. Personally I think they will struggle in existing market conditions.
If a capital raising is much smaller, then they are likely to have to go back to the market within another 6 months for more.
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The credit raising of 1 for 4 @ 6c is already in trouble. With the stock trading below the offer price already, there had better be some good news near application close time or the company is in serious trouble.
A shareholder is better off buying on the open market than taking up the offer. As I write this the stock is trading at 5.8c. As the offer is not underwritten, not much of the offer is likely to be accepted. Of particular note is that shareholders who post on other forums are talking of NOT taking up the offer, many also getting out.
The simple fact is that overly remunerated management has stuffed up. The Bluegen unit is way overpriced for what it is. It is rapidly looking like another great Australian invention that will be picked up for a song by some foreign company that has the financial stability to be able to produce it economically.
When the company runs out of money appears to be only a matter of time, and not much at that, pity.
Some numbers...
Revenue Dec 1/2 year $3,312,684 full year ~$6.7m or ~$3,387,316 for second half. This means growth in revenue of ~2% over first half. Company wants you to forget that and concentrate on growth over previous year.
Cash. At end of Dec $22,528,081. End of June $8,846,000, a cash burn of $13,682,081 in 6 months.
According to last years annual report the company employed 120 full time equivalent staff (p7). The top 16; directors and key personnel, took ~$3.3m as cash between them (including super etc) in 2011. This will be an interesting number in 2012. This company is way too top heavy for ~$6.7m revenue.
Also note that it is in the interests of the large shareholders and directors to hold the shareprice above the offer price until acceptances are closed, just like last time there was an offer.
Where are the usual rampers?
A shareholder is better off buying on the open market than taking up the offer. As I write this the stock is trading at 5.8c. As the offer is not underwritten, not much of the offer is likely to be accepted. Of particular note is that shareholders who post on other forums are talking of NOT taking up the offer, many also getting out.
The simple fact is that overly remunerated management has stuffed up. The Bluegen unit is way overpriced for what it is. It is rapidly looking like another great Australian invention that will be picked up for a song by some foreign company that has the financial stability to be able to produce it economically.
When the company runs out of money appears to be only a matter of time, and not much at that, pity.
Some numbers...
Revenue Dec 1/2 year $3,312,684 full year ~$6.7m or ~$3,387,316 for second half. This means growth in revenue of ~2% over first half. Company wants you to forget that and concentrate on growth over previous year.
Cash. At end of Dec $22,528,081. End of June $8,846,000, a cash burn of $13,682,081 in 6 months.
According to last years annual report the company employed 120 full time equivalent staff (p7). The top 16; directors and key personnel, took ~$3.3m as cash between them (including super etc) in 2011. This will be an interesting number in 2012. This company is way too top heavy for ~$6.7m revenue.
Also note that it is in the interests of the large shareholders and directors to hold the shareprice above the offer price until acceptances are closed, just like last time there was an offer.
Where are the usual rampers?
Knobby22
Mmmmmm 2nd breakfast
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Good points, I agree. I did sell down my stake previously and will not be takinhg up the offer with what's left.
Execution risk and average management. There is a lot of scope for this company even considering patents alone.
It looks like going the way of metalstorm though. I expect a massive dilution when this raising fails. One strange thing, when you read the offer, which is not underwritten, it is like they expect to fail. I wonder if someone is waiting in the wings?
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"There is a lot of scope for this company even considering patents alone."
My opinion is that there is a lot of scope for the technology, and the shareholders may/probably will lose it. If the current offer fails, it is easy to see the only way to keep the company going is to sell assets. Once on that road, the end is very near, yet the management will make it look like a positive future with whats left.
I became very negative about this company when it became known that the price of the Bluegen was $45,000 for a 2 year lease, after management had indicated it could cost $8,000 a couple of years before then. Decreasing solar PV prices have also hurt.
The simple fact is that if the product cannot be produced profitably in the open market against competition (electricity generation) at a price similar to the alternatives, then efficiency is irrelevant. If it was the same price as competition, but more efficient, then it would conquer huge market share.
The competition for market share in micro-generation is PV solar, that has crashed in price to ~$2/w installed. It comes with 25 year guarantees from manufacturers. It has no ongoing costs to operate.
For $40,000 anyone can get a 20Kw system installed that even in 3hrs/day average sun will produce 21,900Kwh/year. This is 50% more than BlueGen (at peak efficiency operation) yet the BlueGen has ongoing gas and maintenance costs. The PV systems also produce ALL there electricity during peak periods, when it is needed most.
The problem is the direction of the company, not the technology. Creating products that industry needed in situations of limited power availability, a niche market, was obviously the place to start. That type of market is willing to pay a high price. Likewise remote power for outback stations and mining operations. Especially as the BlueGen is being handmade, a totally different set of products of higher power output should have been designed years ago. It takes 120 staff to make 5 BlueGens a week, one would hope they could have been put to work more productively.
Calling management "average" is an insult to average managers across the country.
My opinion is that there is a lot of scope for the technology, and the shareholders may/probably will lose it. If the current offer fails, it is easy to see the only way to keep the company going is to sell assets. Once on that road, the end is very near, yet the management will make it look like a positive future with whats left.
I became very negative about this company when it became known that the price of the Bluegen was $45,000 for a 2 year lease, after management had indicated it could cost $8,000 a couple of years before then. Decreasing solar PV prices have also hurt.
The simple fact is that if the product cannot be produced profitably in the open market against competition (electricity generation) at a price similar to the alternatives, then efficiency is irrelevant. If it was the same price as competition, but more efficient, then it would conquer huge market share.
The competition for market share in micro-generation is PV solar, that has crashed in price to ~$2/w installed. It comes with 25 year guarantees from manufacturers. It has no ongoing costs to operate.
For $40,000 anyone can get a 20Kw system installed that even in 3hrs/day average sun will produce 21,900Kwh/year. This is 50% more than BlueGen (at peak efficiency operation) yet the BlueGen has ongoing gas and maintenance costs. The PV systems also produce ALL there electricity during peak periods, when it is needed most.
The problem is the direction of the company, not the technology. Creating products that industry needed in situations of limited power availability, a niche market, was obviously the place to start. That type of market is willing to pay a high price. Likewise remote power for outback stations and mining operations. Especially as the BlueGen is being handmade, a totally different set of products of higher power output should have been designed years ago. It takes 120 staff to make 5 BlueGens a week, one would hope they could have been put to work more productively.
Calling management "average" is an insult to average managers across the country.
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There's the problem. Fundamentally, it's a device to produce products (electricity and heat) which are already easily available for purchase from other suppliers. The Bluegen thus needs to be cheaper than these other suppliers if it is to gain significant market share.
Gas itself is much the same. To a very large extent households use it because it's cheaper than electricity. Go to some place where gas is, or generally has been, more expensive than electricity and you'll find that most homes don't use gas.
Knobby22
Mmmmmm 2nd breakfast
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They have managed to find a Chinese company to tip in $6 mil to take approx 8% of the company.
Could be good if they want to sell in China.
This will let them survive a bit longer.
Still no news on getting their upscaled manufacturing working. Better be soon.
Could be good if they want to sell in China.
This will let them survive a bit longer.
Still no news on getting their upscaled manufacturing working. Better be soon.