CFU - Ceramic Fuel Cells

[Noddy]

Frankly the cash reserves should be plenty. If they don't get the big orders this year, then something is wrong. Maybe I am foolishly optimistic but I am really expecting a massive amount of orders soon when they finalise the production.

Have been in and out of CFU twice, once for a small profit, once stopped out.

By my calculations, they have enough cash to operate for another year or so.
Will find it hard to raise more capital after that unless the can gain some concrete orders. Have ploughed through loads of cash already for no real result.

Think the company is technically very good, but is a financial dud. Their units just don't sell, as they are too expensive to own and operate.

Technically they have recently broken down from a descending triangle (during a rising market) to the dark side and are going backwards IMO.

 

[kingkev]

Yes the down-trend in the sp is rather evident. Not too sure how they are going to go with selling their units in Japan after the crisis in Japan as they will need all the money they can get to help themselves.

Too much fluctuation in their sp for me

 

[noco]

Does anyone have any updated news on CFU? They seem to be slipping down hill.

 

[noco]

Contacted CFU today. A report is due next week some time. Hope it is all good. Not very optimistic at this stage.

 

[brty]

noco,

On the company website there is an announcement about placing ONE unit in some type of sustainable house in Amsterdam. This announcement is not on the ASX web site yet.

I would think the quarterly cashflow statement is due.

Since I was last commenting on this stock, the share price has declined to 10 cents.

The unit is overpriced and not selling.

The directors are not committed, as in not purchasiing/holding substantial numbers of shares, nor purchasing the units for their own homes.

Technically the support is at another 50% decline in the share price, 5 cents.

Unfortunately with fantastic technology, this current management has managed to get it all wrong so far.

brty

 

[Smurf1976]

The unit is overpriced and not selling.

...

Unfortunately with fantastic technology, this current management has managed to get it all wrong so far.

Indeed. For the vast majority of consumers, one question will be asked prior to purchasing or otherwise obtaining such a device - "what is the payback period?".

If it's not profitable then it won't sell. That's why solar water heaters reached a 5% national market share in Australia then went absolutely nowhere for the next 20 years. A small number of people will buy such things for various reasons including concern about the natural environment, being interested in engineering and technology, wanting to support businesses and ideas they see as being "part of the future" and so on. But for the vast majority, either it's financially viable right now or they won't buy it.

 

[brty]

I have recently signed up for a 5Kw solar PV system for $15,000, fully installed. At that price it pays for itself. At my current pricing rates for electricity, I'm getting a 13.5% pa return on my expenditure. It makes economic sense. I also qualify for the generous FIT which makes the system wildly profitable. (so much so that the government must be close to closing this rort)

The prices of these systems have come down a lot in the last year, and over the last 5 years. I cannot fathom how the Bluegen unit can make sales when compared to current PV systems, here or anywhere else that gets some sun.

My PV system will produce almost as much peak electricity as the Bluegen unit running flat out and more peak electricity than the proposed unit operation of 1.5kw, not cost one cent to operate, yet the Bluegen unit will cost ~$1650 (at 2kw) a year to operate from the gas bill alone. As electricity generation will cost ~9.45 c/kwh in gas costs, which is close to what we pay for off peak electricity, the off peak electricity generation has no benefit for the customer and I'm pretty sure the utilities would not want to pay that price for the off peak generation.

On these sort of numbers, it almost makes no sense at all to buy a Bluegen unit at a price above about $4500, with the assumption that gas and electricity prices stay where they are. If gas prices rise then the Bluegen unit would need to be cheaper.

The current pricing for the Bluegen unit, I've taken from the Neco website.....

http://www.neco.com.au/index.php/fuel-cell/bluegenfaqs/

The current price for a BlueGen unit including installation and 2-years maintenance is $45,000. After 2 years, users would be able to extend their maintenance contract for a further 3 years at a cost of around $24,000 (includes replacement fuel stack).

At its typical operation, generating 1.5kW of electricity, BlueGen uses about 9.5 MJ of gas per hour.

assuming a natural gas tariff of $0.015 per MJ, a BlueGen unit running at 1.5kW would cost $3.42 per day in gas.

The current sales price is just absurd, even the proposed $10,000 when sales volumes increase (plus ongoing maintenance costs) is too high given the fall in price of the competition. IMHO this is now dead in the water, when it had a chance 2 years ago if priced decently.

brty

 

[noco]

Hopefully from the Comsec report, CFU appears to be a little brighter.

I believe their sales will come more from UK, Europe and Japan where sunlight is rare and extreme cold temperatures prevail.


http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20110427/pdf/01174163.pdf

 

[kingkev]

Well the report is out

talking up a few sales but i am with brty on this and think that the units are a bit overpriced

It will be interesting to see if the sp spikes or not

 

[Knobby22]

Price up today, manufacturing is slowly getting more serious, plenty of cash left.

Comparing these units with solar cells is a furphy.

(a) you don't need the roof structure.
(b) you get the energy night and day.
(c) you also get the warming (ideal for cold countries).
(d) the price will drop as volumes increase. The price the Vic government paid is the top price you will see. The German and Pommy utilities will be getting volume deals.

I am very bullish long term on this company.

 

[noco]

Good to see CFU up 14% today on a flat market. Could be the beginning of better things to come.

 

[Dono]

I will be the first to admit the news has been a bit slow lately but I wouldn't say CFU is tracking too badly, Good to see EWE showing good faith and starting work without getting the formal grant from the government.

A couple of things to watch out for and what i think will be the spark that gets this stock going again:

1. MCS accreditation - this will be a big milestone in the short term. Probably what E.on is looking for as well before committing to a solid purchase. (Remember EWE sent out their announcement for the purchase of 200 units almost to the day that it reached two years testing with the fuel cell.)

2. The large furnaces, they haven't resolved the issue (probably the biggest sticking point for me) however they seem to have a plan and look to execute it in the near term.

Looking forward to news on these points soon.

Totally agree on the points made by Kobby22, I don't think this is a debate of solar vs fuel cell, people need different systems for different environments.

And yes Neco is still selling the Bluegen at an expensive price but does it really matter?

The issue for me is not selling the Bluegen it's making them! From memory Brendan even said on BRR that if he had 1000 units he could sell them very easily. They just sent over 3 furnaces to Germany to cope with the demand. From what i read in the announcements they have sold around 70 units but they are yet to deliver half of these! (hence my concern about the large volume furnaces).

I know they are building the units in house to ensure quality control, however i am wondering if they have made a mistake buy not outsourcing the manufacturing of the Bluegen unit to an expert manufacturer?

 

[Knobby22]

I agree that they are having problems upscaling the technology with the furnaces. I expect it is a teething problem and will be solved.

Dono's point that it could have gone to a manufacturer is slightly true but they did go to the technical manufacturing country in the world, Germany, with the best engineers. I am sure that adequate technical help is there.

Luckily they didn't build in Australia, with the dollar sitting where it is.

I think you will find 10c a share is the new base that won't be broken.

 

[zzaaxxss3401]

I think you will find 10c a share is the new base that won't be broken.

Just like 22c, 15c then 12c all were? Ahh... Knobby22 you're obviously a very optimistic person. :

I held. Doubled-up. Doubled-up again. Cut my losses last financial year and continued to watch the share price drift down. I can see it returning to the 6c levels of 2009, unless they can start producing a profit. Last financial year, they spent $6m on development and made an $8m loss. The horse is beginning to smell.

 

[zzaaxxss3401]

Last financial year, they spent $6m on development and made an $8m loss.

I correct myself. That was in just the 6 months to the 31st December!

 

[brty]

Cash burn for the quarter was $6.2m.

Cash remaining $21.8m.

Only 36 units up and running.

The 200 units for EWE (paid for by govt funding) will bring in a total of ~$6.6m at current exchange rates. This works out at ~$33,000 for each integrated unit.(Is this a lease or a buy and does it include maintenance??)

Counting the total amount of the sales to EWE with current cash, gives 1 year at current cash burn rate. Costs/cashburn are likely to increase with the ramp up in production.

Any pop in the share price here looks like a good selling opportunity.

brty

 

[Knobby22]

Watch what happens once mass production starts.

 

[noco]

Ceramic Fuel Cells' fuel cell techology a "CLEAN TECHNOLOGY OPTION FOR THE FUTURE"- RMIT University Study.

The RMIT report is available at www.cfcl.com.au

 

[jbocker]

I am not suggesting that CFCL supplies of fuel cells is the answer, but governments making these decisions should help their cause, add to this CFCL manufacturing of fuel cells exisits in Germany.

Germany pulls plug on nuclear power
By Georg Ismar, Berlin
May 31, 2011

GERMANY has announced plans to become the first major industrialised power to shut down all its nuclear plants, with the last to be closed by 2022.

...

The decision means Germany will have to find the 22 per cent of its electricity needs covered by nuclear reactors from another source.


Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/world/germa...#ixzz1NqkKQE1U

I have also posted this on 'Japans Turn' in general chat thread, apologies for doubling up the article.

 

[boff]

I am not suggesting that CFCL supplies of fuel cells is the answer, but governments making these decisions should help their cause, add to this CFCL manufacturing of fuel cells exisits in Germany.

Germany pulls plug on nuclear power
By Georg Ismar, Berlin
May 31, 2011

GERMANY has announced plans to become the first major industrialised power to shut down all its nuclear plants, with the last to be closed by 2022.

...

The decision means Germany will have to find the 22 per cent of its electricity needs covered by nuclear reactors from another source.


Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/world/germa...#ixzz1NqkKQE1U

I have also posted this on 'Japans Turn' in general chat thread, apologies for doubling up the article.

Very prescient given today's announcement. Seeing that a sale of just 25 units to Ausgrid has resulted in a near 20% SP hike I would love to see what some sales to Japan would do.