CFU - Ceramic Fuel Cells

[frankblack]

Hi Frank,

Firstly I'd like to thank you for your input into this discussion, it has made me do a fair bit of research on the company and the numbers involved.



I think they do that now for a lot of people now. My off-peak power is ~10c/kwh our peak is ~23c/kwh (both numbers have the same discount of 7%)
Peak is 7-11 Monday- Friday, Off-peak the rest of the week, and weekends. There are 80 hours of peak and 88 hours of off-peak per week.

Now my point, that I think you misunderstood, is that this difference between peak and off-peak rates is what favors solar, with the assumption that the tariff you pay is reduced by the amount of electricity you produce and consume, and that the residual power fed back into the grid is paid at the same tariffs, in my case 10c for off-peak and 23c for peak.

It becomes quite simple to do the numbers. For Monday to Friday all the power generated by solar panels is at the peak rate price, while on the weekend the solar is produced at the off-peak rate. That means that 5/7 or 71% of all solar generation is at the peak rate.
For the BlueGen unit that operates 24 hours a day, it produces electricity at the peak rates for 80 out of 168 hours in a week, or 47%.

If the solar panel set-up was to match the BlueGen unit in output, say a 10kw system where there is an average of 4.8 hours of useable sunlight per day, then the return for the production of power will always be higher for solar while peak prices are higher than off-peak prices. If peak prices are raised relative to off-peak, then the numbers favor solar even more. In fact the one thing that BlueGen needs is for the price of off-peak to be the same as peak, to take away the advantage of peak pricing when the sun shines.

Added to the above is that solar produces no GHG, has no yearly ongoing cost and that the BlueGen has an input cost of ~$1545 per year for gas.



Can you explain this a bit more?? I know of many people who are very happy with their solar set-up and the reductions in their bills.


All they have to do is their sums and go with a retailer that will allow existing discounts to continue, mine does.

Another aspect that has been overlooked in the debate about the BlueGen units is in terms of infrastructure, not the electricity infrastructure that the company talks about, but the natural gas infrastructure. If the plan was for 10s of thousands of these things to be spread around the suburbs, can the existing gas pipes etc handle the extra load??

Today's action in CFU shares was very high volume for not much upward movement. There seems to be plenty of sellers at these slightly higher prices.

brty

I am happy to help where I can, seems like what I am saying falls on deaf ears.
I give up you are right, solar has the edge, but this doesnt matter.
It doesnt matter because no one will spend 50k to buy 100m2 of panels,
and they dont have 100m2 north facing, the 1.5-2kw systems that are on there now barely fit.
It doesnt matter because we are talking about CFU not solar, no body is going to pay 50k for a ceramic fuel cell system which would fit neatly where the dishwasher used to be.
So what is the Government going to do about it?
That is the real point.
Why are we talking about solar or fuel cells or windfarm or geothermal etc..., at all, none of these things would/can exist without the government getting
them up.
I would like to know what the government is going to do about CFU, because thats what matters to CFU, nothing else comes close.
In Europe governments have given the 'bluegen' fell cell concept the thumbs up, it will be part of the mix.
Brumbys words tell me Victoria is next, http://tinyurl.com/29r733v
he is also telling us all solar has moved on out of the suburbs and going large scale.
The government has a job to do cut, co2, the average bloke on the street with 50k burning a hole in his pocket, calculator in hand, is not going to do it.

The gas pipes can deal with the extra load 302mj's per day, per unit, I use 380 myself now to run my heater, so if you can build 10 000 new homes, you can keep the gas pressure up to a few bluegens. Summer, autumn, spring, wont be any problem, less heating.

 

[brty]

Frank,

I would like to know what the government is going to do about CFU, because thats what matters to CFU, nothing else comes close.

That is precisely what's wrong with the strategy the company has taken. It is totally reliant on government subsidies, feed-in tariffs etc. Instead of producing a standalone product, that could withstand much higher prices, it must be grid connected, to both gas and electricity.

no one will spend 50k to buy 100m2 of panels

I agree on grid connected systems, yet many have spent that on off-grid systems.

no body is going to pay 50k for a ceramic fuel cell system

Again, for a grid connected system, yet many would buy such a thing for an off-grid system, just like solar.

would fit neatly where the dishwasher used to be.

I actually like my dishwasher. Where exactly is the BlueGen meant to fit in existing houses?? I have a relatively large home, yet there is not extra room in non living areas to place such a thing. A corner in the garage seems most likely in my situation.

they dont have 100m2 north facing, the 1.5-2kw systems that are on there now barely fit.

I don't know of which Melbourne you are talking about, but the one in Victoria has hundreds of thousands of vacant north facing roof tops throughout the suburbs, maybe not 100 sqm to equal the output of the BlueGen, but very adequate for the existing 1.5-3kw systems that are popular. Even with the subsidies, that make clear economic sense for the consumers, most don't put them on. Personally, I have over 200 sqm of North facing roof space.

brty

Brumbys words tell me .....

Politicians words!! The only thing to believe from politicians is their actions, not their words.

 

[frankblack]

Thanks brty

That is precisely what's wrong with the strategy the company has taken. It is totally reliant on government subsidies, feed-in tariffs etc.

Ha ha, thats a joke isnt it.? Take away the government subsidies, feed-in tariffs, and you wouldnt have a single solar panel on a melbourne roof.

Instead of producing a standalone product, that could withstand much higher prices, it must be grid connected, to both gas and electricity.

Actually no, if you want to make the bluegen standalone, you can, just buy some batteries, some technical knowledge would help.
The market for standalone isnt as big or easy to deal with.

Again, for a grid connected system, yet many would buy such a thing for an off-grid system, just like solar.

Well they can.

I actually like my dishwasher. Where exactly is the BlueGen meant to fit in existing houses?? I have a relatively large home, yet there is not extra room in non living areas to place such a thing. A corner in the garage seems most likely in my situation.

Sits outside next to the hot water system.

I don't know of which Melbourne you are talking about, but the one in Victoria has hundreds of thousands of vacant north facing roof tops throughout the suburbs, maybe not 100 sqm to equal the output of the BlueGen, but very adequate for the existing 1.5-3kw systems that are popular. Even with the subsidies, that make clear economic sense for the consumers, most don't put them on. Personally, I have over 200 sqm of North facing roof space.

Should the government acquire/ lease this vast roof space, and put the solar on? because it wont happen otherwise.
Solar in the suburbs is dead, buried and cremated. Big business will run the solar from Mildura from now on.

Believe it or not.

 

[moXJO]

Well at least it is acknowledged by Brumby

GP: Yes. If you were Prime Minister right now, what policies would you be announcing?

JB: I think that there will be, well, I hope that there will be announcements over the next few weeks in relation to these areas, but energy efficiency is fundamental. You can make huge savings in carbon emissions in households and small-to-medium businesses, so tackling that – but not just through retrofit-type programs; grants for new industry development are really crucial.

It is still a fact that 50 per cent of the world’s energy passes through an electric motor, so whether it’s in a printer or an air-conditioning system, or whatever it is, getting efficiencies in those technologies are crucial to reducing emissions.

Secondly, accelerating the move to renewables. Thirdly, I think it is important to continue to provide support for carbon capture storage. The world is going to continue to use coal – and there are many environmental groups who don’t like hearing that message – but if you look at China for example, China has now surpassed the US as the world’s largest energy consumer and they consume a huge amount of oil and coal – so continuing to advance research in carbon capture storage is important for Australia, but perhaps even more important for places like China and India, which are going to have galloping energy consumption curves.

So those three things are really fundamental. I think the fourth area is obviously providing the right environment to turn this challenge into an economic winner, and whether that’s research and development, and new technologies in solar or geothermal, whether it’s through ceramic fuel cells and their development and production, whether it’s through the new technologies that might hypothetically halve the amount of energy that an electric motor uses. I think there is just a huge raft of new economic opportunities that are going to come as the world really focuses on a cleaner environment and knocking down carbon emissions. So they’re the four things I would focus on.

http://www.climatespectator.com.au/commentary/qa-john-brumby

 

[brty]

From quarterly cash-flow statement just released...

Cash in ~$400,000

Net cash out ~$5,200,000

Cash left ~$11,400,000

About 2 quarters worth.

Sales 49 units in 14 months

Units installed 12.

Lots of repeated hype in first 8 pages of cashflow report.

brty

 

[moXJO]

From quarterly cash-flow statement just released...

Cash in ~$400,000

Net cash out ~$5,200,000

Cash left ~$11,400,000

About 2 quarters worth.

Sales 49 units in 14 months

Units installed 12.

Lots of repeated hype in first 8 pages of cashflow report.

brty

yup not much has changed cashburn wise.
Now that the environment is off the political agenda, things have been slow going.
Share price is up though. Is there news on the court case?

 

[UMike]

Hi mo,

The case is being heard in the Federal Court in Melbourne. Trial is expected to conclude by the end of July 2010.

 

[moXJO]

Market expecting a good outcome on the court case? Price is moving slowly upwards. How much of that $25 mill is cfu expected to see?

 

[MACCA350]

One thing that I haven't seen mentioned is the licensing agreement with NexTech. In the deal CFU will receive royalties from NexTech's worldwide sales for licensing them their patented manufacturing processes. This could be decent revenue stream going forward, so their revenue is not purely from the sale of their own products(which is not just the BlueGen but other larger generation units and the core fuel stacks themselves). From what I understand they have a number of patented technologies and processes that they can sell for royalties.

Nice pump in sp today, wonder if there is an announcement in the wings or if this is from investors digesting the quarterly report released yesterday.

cheers

 

[adobee]

mention of CFU in I think telegraph business secton (may have been herald) this morning.. just read whilst getting lunch.. pretty short says CFU has sold to government and department of housing .

 

[UMike]

Out today. 30% is good enough for me atm.


Good luck to all holders. Seems like a realy good product.

 

[subasurf]

Well done mate.
I only just got in on this company start of week. Only holding short term, so here's to hoping it shoots up

 

[craigj]

the cash flow burn is high cause they are setting up the plant in germany. think about in a few years time when sales ramp up

 

[Smurf1976]

That is precisely what's wrong with the strategy the company has taken. It is totally reliant on government subsidies, feed-in tariffs etc.

Ha ha, thats a joke isnt it.? Take away the government subsidies, feed-in tariffs, and you wouldnt have a single solar panel on a melbourne roof.

...

Solar in the suburbs is dead, buried and cremated. Big business will run the solar from Mildura from now on.

Take away the subsidies and the only viable sources of electricity in Australia for large scale application at present are black coal and natural gas. That's it.

Brown coal and hydro historically were viable and indeed extremely cheap. But they aren't viable to build new under present circumstances, one of the reasons for pushing out the life of old brown coal plants as long as possible.

If you can generate baseload at 4 cents per kWh then that is certainly a viable source of generation. Only black coal, efficient natural gas plants and existing brown coal or hydro can do that. Everything else is either viable for peaking only (new hydro, less efficient gas etc) or is subsidised.

Overseas it's much the same. Yes they have "viable" nuclear and renewable industries. But look a bit further and there's almost always some sort of subsidy involved either directly, or through taxing (or outright prohibiting) the alternatives. Nuclear plants that are "profitable" are that way on the same basis that brown coal or hydro are - because the plant was built decades ago and the capital cost is excluded from present calculations because it's either been fully repaid already or has had its' real value inflated away. Hydro, brown coal and to a significant extent nuclear are brilliant hedges agains inflation since most of the total cost is during initial construction.

As for solar panels in the suburbs, that comes down to something rather fundamental. Economy of scale. It is generally cheaper to produce anything on a large scale be it shoes, cars or electricity. And in the case of electricity, solar panels aren't the cheapest way of producing electricity anyway. And even if you want non-fossil energy, it's still cheaper to use wind, hydro, geothermal or biomass than to use solar panels.

All that said, I have solar panels on my own roof simply because for me individually it has been profitable even though it is not financially profitable for society as a whole. I'm actually considering two possible options for extending the system depending on what happens with government policy. Neither is profitable as such, but if someone's handing out the taxpayers' money then I might as well have some - at which point it becomes profitable for me as an individual to install additional solar on the roof.

 

[frankblack]

Agree Smurf,
What we will get is a myriad of renewable power inputs, which will require a 'Smartgrid', if I am not wrong.
Are we Smartgrid ready?
It is now up to the Governments of the world to decide what role Fuel Cells get to play in all this. Without this government help, its unlikely fuel cells will get the wide appeal and the scale necessary to bring the cost down.

 

[MACCA350]

Agree Smurf,
Without this government help, its unlikely fuel cells will get the wide appeal and the scale necessary to bring the cost down.

The BlueGen is already included in government rebates etc and/or feed in tariffs in every other country they currently export to.

Australia is the only country who has omitted the BlueGen and similar products from such schemes.

Considering renewable energy sources such as wind and solar cannot supply base load, which restricts them from supplying more than a certain percentage(~20% if I remember correctly) of our total energy requirements and hence cannot replace coal fired generation in of themselves, the government need to support other efficient alternatives that can support base load. I'm not saying products like the BlueGen should be the sole alternative, but there is a place for many alternatives, other than those covered in the current Australian govt schemes, if their goal is to produce a cleaner electricity grid.

Cheers

 

[frankblack]

The BlueGen is already included in government rebates etc and/or feed in tariffs in every other country they currently export to.

Australia is the only country who has omitted the BlueGen and similar products from such schemes.

Considering renewable energy sources such as wind and solar cannot supply base load, which restricts them from supplying more than a certain percentage(~20% if I remember correctly) of our total energy requirements and hence cannot replace coal fired generation in of themselves, the government need to support other efficient alternatives that can support base load. I'm not saying products like the BlueGen should be the sole alternative, but there is a place for many alternatives, other than those covered in the current Australian govt schemes, if their goal is to produce a cleaner electricity grid.

Cheers

As we all know, Brumby is reviewing the feed in tariff situation regards,
when it comes to the Bluegen and the like, efficient fuel cell generators.

Can I be Frank,
theres one reason why he decided to do this,
to bring Victoria into line with the rest of the world,
and give CFCL the chance it deserves.
Could he live with himself otherwise?
Besides, its a no-brainer, he has even got the libs on his side.

 

[pixel]

good news this morning: First USA sale

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100805/pdf/31rqx8v1xgzd20.pdf

 

[mr. jeff]

Have to bring the tone down again.
1 (another) trial unit sale does a successful company not make.

CFCL should be handing trial units out on lease to every utility company around the globe that is anywhere near a good gas supply, let them trial the things whilst they get their production happeningfull scale, then let the orders roll in and watch the units run out the door like iphones do...and if the orders don't come then sell the ceramic technology and production to Linc Energy.

But hang on how much do these things cost?
$55,000 ? you have got to be kidding. That is seriously bad press.
Yes I know I'm full it. But hey, it's a forum for discussion on CFU.

 

[Knobby22]

Have to bring the tone down again.
1 (another) trial unit sale does a successful company not make.

CFCL should be handing trial units out on lease to every utility company around the globe that is anywhere near a good gas supply, let them trial the things whilst they get their production happeningfull scale, then let the orders roll in and watch the units run out the door like iphones do...and if the orders don't come then sell the ceramic technology and production to Linc Energy.

But hang on how much do these things cost?
$55,000 ? you have got to be kidding. That is seriously bad press.
Yes I know I'm full it. But hey, it's a forum for discussion on CFU.

That price is for a single unit, not part of a utility deal.
It will come down.
The fact they have utilities in 3 continents interested in selling it shows that it is a real breakthrough technology. Come back in a year with hundreds being sold every week.