Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

CFU - Ceramic Fuel Cells

JB,

Brty, any reasons for the quick replacement of stacks after the first two years?

The reason I was given is that "they don't know how long they will last". I asked for the difference in replacement times for the second and third stacks, it is assumed the technology will get better and the company will learn from the longer term operation of the initial units.

My point/question in regard to the "cash burn rate" is how does the company get to the future where the cost of the units is cheap enough to compete with solar generation, that has no ongoing costs?? Current revenues do not even cover the remuneration packages of directors and 'key personnel'. So where does the money come from for further research or production, or ongoing maintenance as per existing leases??

Frank,
All and Any of Dollar numbers quoted around here are pure fiction and guesstimates at best.

Which numbers are you referring to?? The ones I have used are actual current existing numbers, no fiction whatsoever. If you have different, real existing numbers please provide them.

Feed-in tariffs for solar are at maximum 66c/kwh (Origin Energy in Vic) for less than 5kw systems, larger than that it is close to ordinary retail tariffs. The solar systems produce zero GHG emissions in the creation of electricity.
The BlueGen unit creates GHG in the production of electricity, certainly it is less than coal fired production, but it still produces them. It does not qualify for the rates attributed to solar, nor should it.
Assuming that it attracts the same feed-in rates as other small scale generation ~23 cents/kwh (peak and ~9 cents off-peak), what is the point of producing electricity at a cost of $1.37 /kwh during the first 2 years??

Origin have a ton of cash and own the gas and supply electricity.

As a former, and about to be new again shareholder of Origin, to have one or two makes sense in terms of research. However considering that the cost of generating plant at a new modern large scale gas turbine plant is around $1200-$1500 per kw of capacity, and the efficiency of these newest gas turbines is around 57%, around the same as the BlueGen unit, then unless the cost of the units were to be ~$3,000, with ongoing maintenance at an equivalent to the large scale operation in terms of $/kwh of production, then it makes no economic sense to buy any more.

All you can say, if you want to, is that we dont know

What don't we know??

Frank, your failure to acknowledge the existing numbers, begs me to ask the question of whether you have an association with the company in any capacity other than being a small shareholder??

brty
 
Brty

What you have missed in your analysis is:

a) the fact it is a technology breakthrough for fuel cell technology, so much so that companies are now paying CFU to licence the technology.
b) that the fuel cell cost will be much less than it is now once volume commences in Europe. (which will occur very soon).
c) in Europe and Japan, where the climate is colder, solar cells are less efficient and electricity is dearer therefore:
(i) the payback period is short (1 year in some cases)
(ii) the heat produced can be used to heat water or the home
(iii) their use results in load being reduced off the supply network as well as reducing greenhouse gas emmission hence government encouragement.

Finally, Australia will eventually join Europe in encouraging its use.
The problem is that our politicians are all lawyers and such and don't understand technology. Earlier in this thread when CFU had a meeting with some, which you can read, the sheer inability of the politicains involved to understand how this works acts to show the base quality of the people in charge. We will follow though, we are good at copying bigger countries.

I agree with you as solar energy costs drop and they become more efficient, then solar will have the advantage in Australia however worldwide this is not the case.
 
Cheers for the research brty.

IMHO the issue isn't whether people will buy them (sure it is expensive) but see post below, there is definately a market there. The question is will people buy them quick enough to avoid a capital rasing.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...-sparks-solution/story-e6frg9no-1225894288727

I have a feeling we will have a big announcement on the way whether it will be good or bad. Have to wait and see but been happy about the positive news lately.
 
Cheers for the research brty.

IMHO the issue isn't whether people will buy them (sure it is expensive) but see post below, there is definately a market there. The question is will people buy them quick enough to avoid a capital rasing.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...-sparks-solution/story-e6frg9no-1225894288727

I have a feeling we will have a big announcement on the way whether it will be good or bad. Have to wait and see but been happy about the positive news lately.

I got a feeling that the upside of CFU will be more shown after the election and how the climate change policy shapes up by Julia (I have already assumed she will win not because she was like Brutas but because she got an easy target - beating Mr Abott and Mr Hockey - the weakest links in liberal).

No matter who wins the climate change is a big thing. It will be then a competitive advantage between CFU and Solar Energy Sellers (which means the sellers have to keep so many competing products to sell to customers leading high inventory cost, product aware ness, after sales service and headache).

This variety of Solar Energy players in the market makes CFU task an easy one. Their publicity costs also reduced considering Harvey Norman and Victorian Government blessing. The other company could have competed with CFU was ERJ products. But ERJ has a comparative poor set up and high dependence on import making them now laggard in the market.

So IMO I look forward to see something by October when new government (labor or liberal whosoever) gets its feet on the ground.

Disclaimer : I do hold CFU and looking for opportunity to build up at fall in CFU price.
 
For Germany as a whole,
There are an average of 1738 hours of sunlight per year with an average of 4.8 hours of sunlight per day.

http://www.climatetemp.info/germany/

The Feed-in Law fixes tariffs for approved renewable energy projects for a 20-year period from the plant commissioning and will apply incremental price cuts. Tariffs were initially set at 48.1 cents per kilowatt hour for solar energy, 8.6 cents per kWh for wind, from 9.6 to 8.2 cents per kWh for biomass, 8.4 to 6.7 cents per kWh for geothermal and 7.2 to 6.3 cents per kWh for hydropower, waste and sewage gas.

http://www.solarbuzz.com/FastFactsGermany.htm

While the average cost of a kilowatt hour of electricity in Europe for the second half of 2008 and the first half of 2009 tallied €0.165,

http://www.thelocal.de/money/20100528-27497.html

That converts to $A0.243, my current peak electricity costs from the last bill were 24 cents kwh.

Of the major cities, Perth is the sunniest (3,200 hours annually) and Melbourne is the least sunny (2,200 hours annually).

http://www.livingin-australia.com/sunshine-hours-australia/

Yes, Germany has less sunlight hours than Melbourne, but more than the average of only 4 hours/day that I worked out earlier as being much better for solar over the BlueGen. A 10kw solar system in Germany will still produce as much electricity as the BlueGen over a year, with zero GHG emissions and no ongoing costs for the 110,000 Mj of gas used.

The 110,000 Mj of gas would cost over 1000 pounds in the UK, converted to $Aus is ~ $1,750. That is higher than the prices paid here.
There is no unique advantage for these BlueGens in Europe over solar. In fact the reliance on gas that increasingly is coming from the FSU countries, places it at a higher disadvantage.

Please do your homework on this company and do not rely on bluesky and spin, despite what the short term shareprice movements may do.

brty
 
Yes, Germany has less sunlight hours than Melbourne, but more than the average of only 4 hours/day that I worked out earlier as being much better for solar over the BlueGen. A 10kw solar system in Germany will still produce as much electricity as the BlueGen over a year, with zero GHG emissions and no ongoing costs for the 110,000 Mj of gas used.


brty

Space restriction for solar panels on roof tops is key regarding Europe & Japan. Not to mention ideal positioning of panels towards the sun (which a majority do not have). Solar imo is impractical in dense cities. Australia on the other hand is better off going the solar option.
 
Space restriction for solar panels on roof tops is key regarding Europe & Japan. Not to mention ideal positioning of panels towards the sun (which a majority do not have). Solar imo is impractical in dense cities. Australia on the other hand is better off going the solar option.

Also many more live in apartment blocks.
As an electrical engineer I could have saved a client a lot of money recently if I could have upgraded their supply with a bluegen. Instead we got an upgraded supply from the power company costing tens of thousands of dollars.

My experiance with solar is that the panels rarely operate at peak efficiency to get the say 10kW suggested. Secondly you have to spend a lot of money on infrastructure, frams for the panels, invertors etc. The losses in the invertor are not insubstational by the way.
Thirdly they do depreciate over time (as does the CFU unit).
 
moXJO,

Space restriction for solar panels on roof tops is key regarding Europe & Japan.

Good point, I agree space restrictions will apply. How much room will there be inside apartments for a BlueGen unit, in a non-living area??

knobby,

As an electrical engineer I could have saved a client a lot of money recently if I could have upgraded their supply with a bluegen. Instead we got an upgraded supply from the power company costing tens of thousands of dollars
Interesting. How much extra power did the upgrade supply them, If only 2kw, did the upgrade cost them over $70,000 :eek: (of course $70,000 will only buy 5 years of use with BlueGen, I suspect the upgrade will last longer.)

A 10 kw solar system can be obtained for under $70k fully installed, including the frame, inverter,wiring etc. The panels alone would work out to ~$40-50k.

My real contention is that there is a huge demand for something like this off-grid, in remote locations where people currently use solar, plus diesel generators plus battery storage. To connect to a stand alone fuel cell, that could produce power on demand, from LPG/petrol/diesel would sell like hotcakes at high prices.

brty
 
moXJO,


Interesting. How much extra power did the upgrade supply them, If only 2kw, did the upgrade cost them over $70,000 :eek: (of course $70,000 will only buy 5 years of use with BlueGen, I suspect the upgrade will last longer.)

A 10 kw solar system can be obtained for under $70k fully installed, including the frame, inverter,wiring etc. The panels alone would work out to ~$40-50k.

My real contention is that there is a huge demand for something like this off-grid, in remote locations where people currently use solar, plus diesel generators plus battery storage. To connect to a stand alone fuel cell, that could produce power on demand, from LPG/petrol/diesel would sell like hotcakes at high prices.

brty

I really only needed an additional 10kW.

As you say it is horses for courses.
Solar and PV both have their place. It will be interesitng to see how it all pans out.

Some of the new solar product like flexible film is quite amazing.
 
JB,



The reason I was given is that "they don't know how long they will last". I asked for the difference in replacement times for the second and third stacks, it is assumed the technology will get better and the company will learn from the longer term operation of the initial units.

My point/question in regard to the "cash burn rate" is how does the company get to the future where the cost of the units is cheap enough to compete with solar generation, that has no ongoing costs?? Current revenues do not even cover the remuneration packages of directors and 'key personnel'. So where does the money come from for further research or production, or ongoing maintenance as per existing leases??

Frank,


Which numbers are you referring to?? The ones I have used are actual current existing numbers, no fiction whatsoever. If you have different, real existing numbers please provide them.

Feed-in tariffs for solar are at maximum 66c/kwh (Origin Energy in Vic) for less than 5kw systems, larger than that it is close to ordinary retail tariffs. The solar systems produce zero GHG emissions in the creation of electricity.
The BlueGen unit creates GHG in the production of electricity, certainly it is less than coal fired production, but it still produces them. It does not qualify for the rates attributed to solar, nor should it.
Assuming that it attracts the same feed-in rates as other small scale generation ~23 cents/kwh (peak and ~9 cents off-peak), what is the point of producing electricity at a cost of $1.37 /kwh during the first 2 years??



As a former, and about to be new again shareholder of Origin, to have one or two makes sense in terms of research. However considering that the cost of generating plant at a new modern large scale gas turbine plant is around $1200-$1500 per kw of capacity, and the efficiency of these newest gas turbines is around 57%, around the same as the BlueGen unit, then unless the cost of the units were to be ~$3,000, with ongoing maintenance at an equivalent to the large scale operation in terms of $/kwh of production, then it makes no economic sense to buy any more.



What don't we know??

Frank, your failure to acknowledge the existing numbers, begs me to ask the question of whether you have an association with the company in any capacity other than being a small shareholder??

brty

I'll say it again, there is nothing wrong with they way you are evaluating CFU,
IF you were looking for a safe and secure place to park your money.
Please dont take the risk if you dont believe the story.
In my opinion though, you will be proven wrong.
No I dont have any affiliations with CFCL, the company.
And I will continue to ignore, for the most part, the figures bandied around here because they are only speculation, not proved.
Has any-one actually leased a unit for whatever price yet,??
I dont think so,
With this in mind, also, I can not prove a negative.

The Feed in Tariff nobody knows what that will be, my best guess, 1 for 1.
Make no mistake, the Bluegen product will not be seen around here, with out
a feed in tariff.

As for Origin Energy, they make gas and they want to make more, but they they sell electricity and buy more than they can make themselves.
Yes they could build a gas generator, but what if you could get your customers to pay for leasing/owning a Bluegen, and with the governments help?
Well that is what I would do.

Only time will tell, all we know for sure is that WE dont know,
I personally value every contribution to this thread, thanks.:)
 
Frank,

And I will continue to ignore, for the most part, the figures bandied around here because they are only speculation, not proved.

Again I ask which figures are speculation. If you refer to any of mine they are all fact, so please explain which figures you refer to as speculation.

I dont think the cost will be 70k

I dont accept it will cost as much as 70k

Why do you find the actual numbers so difficult to believe?? Please look at the NECO website...

http://www.neco.com.au/index.php/fuel-cell/bluegenfaqs/

Ring them up yourself...
contact a Neco Green Living Consultant on 1300 882 640

Once you have the actual numbers, get out a calculator, the numbers do not lie in this case.

Please dont take the risk if you dont believe the story

In terms of investment, one should never believe "the story". The facts and numbers are the only guide, whether by technical analysis or fundamental analysis. I have no fear of the markets and only take proportionate risks. I have no money invested in this for a very good reason.

brty
 
Frank,



Again I ask which figures are speculation. If you refer to any of mine they are all fact, so please explain which figures you refer to as speculation.





Why do you find the actual numbers so difficult to believe?? Please look at the NECO website...

http://www.neco.com.au/index.php/fuel-cell/bluegenfaqs/

Ring them up yourself...


Once you have the actual numbers, get out a calculator, the numbers do not lie in this case.



In terms of investment, one should never believe "the story". The facts and numbers are the only guide, whether by technical analysis or fundamental analysis. I have no fear of the markets and only take proportionate risks. I have no money invested in this for a very good reason.

brty

Obviously time will tell who is right or wrong about the future of CFU.
I certainly wont be buying into what the thing costs until I see actual proof.
Even then, as I have already argued Utilities might not tell us what they are paying.
This has along way to run yet.

This person (Andrew Main) has a different price he is telling the world about,

"We won't all be buying more than one straight away, as the cost is about $55,000. However, John Harrison of Harvey Norman Commercial said last night that there had been significant interest from government bodies and organizations with specific energy requirements. "Just to put it in perspective, that's around $10,000 less than a photovoltaic system with a similar output," he said, adding that such a system might require more roof space on a commercial building than was physically possible."

I am not giving investment advice,
I am looking for answers, but not unproven speculation.
What if something is for lease for $70 000, and no-one takes it up at that price, well it never happened.

Wait and see, we just dont know yet.
 
Frank,

We won't all be buying more than one straight away, as the cost is about $55,000. However, John Harrison of Harvey Norman Commercial said last night that there had been significant interest from government bodies and organizations with specific energy requirements.

You don't think that is the wholesale price to the reseller, who then puts his margin on top??
They seem to be buying only one.

Also in the Australian newspaper article, found here...

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...-sparks-solution/story-e6frg9no-1225894288727

... was the following....

Andrew Neilson of Ceramic Fuel Cells said his company had so far sold "just under 50 units", of which about a dozen were so far in operation

Apart from Vicurban's 30, total sales are still only 18-19 for the rest of the world since October 09, with 17 of those occurring before the end of April.

brty
 
Anyone consider that CFU may have gone looking for other retailers, in this case Harvey Normans, because Neco were setting pricing and this 'lease' deal too high and they couldn't simply dump them due to contracts......might have to wait to see what Harvey Norman do with it.

You are right there has been only a small number of sales, but these 20 odd sales have been trial units purchased by key companies in the industry. For example the Japan sales went to a company who already has infrastructure and have used/sold something like 40,000 small petrol run generators in their current program. They purchased the Bluegen to assess it as a replacement or addition to their current program. It's these kinds of companies, who have/will have trial units, who will drive mass production not the general public.

In fact the 30 unit order by the Vic govt was the first bulk(if you could call it that) order.

I can see your skepticism of the Bluegen as a viable product at the quoted $70,000 odd and agree as I too balked at it, but I'll wait and see how things pan out.

Cheers
 
Anyone consider that CFU may have gone looking for other retailers, in this case Harvey Normans, because Neco were setting pricing and this 'lease' deal too high and they couldn't simply dump them due to contracts......might have to wait to see what Harvey Norman do with it.

You are right there has been only a small number of sales, but these 20 odd sales have been trial units purchased by key companies in the industry. For example the Japan sales went to a company who already has infrastructure and have used/sold something like 40,000 small petrol run generators in their current program. They purchased the Bluegen to assess it as a replacement or addition to their current program. It's these kinds of companies, who have/will have trial units, who will drive mass production not the general public.

In fact the 30 unit order by the Vic govt was the first bulk(if you could call it that) order.

I can see your skepticism of the Bluegen as a viable product at the quoted $70,000 odd and agree as I too balked at it, but I'll wait and see how things pan out.

Cheers

Absolutely right, all we can do is wait and see how things pan out.
It might take longer than we think,
The fact that CFU is the first and only in the world with this kind of product,
is slowing things down with all the testing.
And because there is no competitor ready, prices are being set a bit too high,
maybe to justify the company financially.
The nearest competitor is maybe 2 years behind but maybe 5.
When the competition finally arrives to market the price of a bluegen will drop substantially.
This technology is the new kid on the block, there's a lot of excitement about it in the world, the pent up demand wont go away, it really needs to fail for this to change.:2twocents
 
Frank,



You don't think that is the wholesale price to the reseller, who then puts his margin on top??
They seem to be buying only one.

Also in the Australian newspaper article, found here...

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...-sparks-solution/story-e6frg9no-1225894288727

... was the following....



Apart from Vicurban's 30, total sales are still only 18-19 for the rest of the world since October 09, with 17 of those occurring before the end of April.

brty

I have listened to you, your findings are correct, CFU is not a safe investment yet.
Your pricing for the units is out there, yet unconfirmed until it becomes the norm, which it wont.
Now listen to me , I am not speculating on the price, because I dont know more than you, so far nobody posting here knows any more.
I will accept, that at the moment the price is set far too high for the average person who should look for a payback of the purchase, and more than what I would have thought given a possible cost around $10 000 once in mass production.
Theres a long way to go wait and see.:)
 
Isn't there a sizable backup / perpetual power market that BluGen units are perfect for?

Sure the per kWh cost is not cheap, but as emergency back up power the unit cost become less relevant.

If there is such a market than relative costs and performance comparison should be made to alternatives like a diesel generator (capital costs, ongoing costs, reliability, power output etc).

And given that BluGen can earn feed in tariff, as long as the marginal cost of the gas is less than the tariff earned, you would actually run the machine even though it is only intended for backup use.
 
I have been told that at the moment the BluGen units cannot act as a backup power unit if connected to the grid as there is no isolation from the 240AC.
 
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